Export Destinations and Input Prices. Appendix A

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Export Destinations and Input Prices. Appendix A"

Brett Hudson
5 years ago
Views:

1 Export Destinations and Input Prices Paulo Bastos Joana Silva Eric Verhoogen July 2017 Appendix A For Online Publication

2 Figure A1. Real exchange rate, selected richer destinations relative price level (1997=100) UK relative price level (1997=100) USA relative price level (1997=100) Sweden year year year relative price level (1997=100) Switzerland relative price level (1997=100) Norway relative price level (1997=100) Japan year year year ɛ Notes: Real exchange rate calculated as hkt CP I ht /CP I kt, where ɛ hkt is the nominal exchange rate (defined as units of home (h) currency per unit of currency in destination k). (Refer to equation (20).) Given this definition, an increase reflects a real appreciation in the destination relative to Portugal. Real exchange rate normalized to 100 in 1997.

3 Figure A2. Real exchange rate, selected poorer destinations relative price level (1997=100) Brazil relative price level (1997=100) Angola relative price level (1997=100) Turkey year year year relative price level (1997=100) Morocco relative price level (1997=100) Hungary relative price level (1997=100) Russia year year year ɛ Notes: Real exchange rate calculated as hkt CP I ht /CP I kt, where ɛ hkt is the nominal exchange rate (defined as units of home (h) currency per unit of currency in destination k). (Refer to equation (20).) Given this definition, an increase reflects a real appreciation in the destination relative to Portugal. Real exchange rate normalized to 100 in 1997.

4 Figure A3. Non-overlap between export destinations and import sources avg. number of source countries number of export destinations fraction of sample number of export destinations Notes: Sample is firms in the baseline estimation sample in 1997 with positive exports to one or more of top 100 non-euro-zone destinations. Number of export destinations refers to non-euro-zone destinations and is top-coded at 40; fewer than.1% of firms are above the top-code. The top panel illustrates the average number of source countries (hollow bars) and average number of source countries that are also destinations (gray bars), for firms with the number of destinations indicated on the x-axis. The line is a 45-degree line. The bottom panel is a histogram of the fraction of firms with the indicated numbers of export destinations.

5 Figure A4. First-stage coefficients from alternative IV procedure coeff. on log(rer), first stage income group Notes: Figure plots first-stage coefficients on income-group instruments (log(rer igt) for different income groups as defined in equation (22)) from Column 5 of Table 7, with 90% confidence intervals. Portugal s own income would put it in income group 4. Figure A5. Reduced-form coefficients from alternative IV procedure coeff. on log(rer), reduced form income group Notes: Figure plots reduced-form coefficients on income-group instruments (log(rer igt) for different income groups as defined in equation (22)) from Column 5 of Table A10, with 90% confidence intervals. Portugal s own income would put it in income group 4.

6 Table A1. Summary statistics: exports, imports, initial income, 1997 export rank export share all exports est. sample import rank import share all imports est. sample income rank initial GDP/cap. Germany Spain France United Kingdom Netherlands Belgium-Luxemburg United States Italy Sweden Denmark Austria Switzerland Brazil Norway Japan Finland Angola Greece Singapore Israel Turkey Ireland Australia Canada Morocco Hungary Russia South Africa Chile Hong Kong Poland Cape Verde China Saudi Arabia Argentina Tunisia Korea Czech Republic Algeria Mexico Mozambique Thailand Guinea-Bissau Panama Venezuela India Egypt Cyprus New Zealand Slovak Republic Notes: Columns 2, 5 report export and import shares for all firms, Columns 3, 6 for our estimation sample. Export, import ranks based on Columns 2, 5. Initial GDP/cap. is from 1996 (or first available subsequent year in 5 cases; see fn 21) from the World Development Indicators, in constant 2000 US dollars. Countries poorer than Portugal (in initial GDP/capita) appear in italics. Petroleum exports and imports excluded. Euro-zone countries included. Table continues on next two pages. Final row reports total exports for all destinations and total imports from all sources.

7 Table A1. (Continued) Summary statistics: exports, imports, initial income, 1997 export rank export share all exports est. sample import rank import share all imports est. sample income rank initial GDP/cap. Macao Uruguay Bulgaria Iceland Zimbabwe Senegal Colombia Jordan Nigeria Pakistan Malta Malaysia Ghana Slovenia Philippines Kuwait Romania Lithuania Moldova Kenya Dominican Republic Ukraine Cote d Ivoire Libya Syrian Arab Republic Croatia Guatemala Peru Estonia Vietnam Ethiopia Mauritius Latvia Paraguay Bahrain Sri Lanka Iran Netherlands Antilles El Salvador Armenia Malawi Jamaica Yemen Gabon Cameroon Tanzania Costa Rica Qatar Indonesia Honduras

8 Table A1. (Continued) Summary statistics: exports, imports, initial income, 1997 export rank export share all exports est. sample import rank import share all imports est. sample income rank initial GDP/cap. Kazakhstan Zambia Burkina Faso Bangladesh Madagascar Georgia Albania Togo Benin Dem. Rep. of Congo Rep. of Congo Mauritania Niger Uganda Rwanda Bolivia Nepal Burundi Gambia, The Belarus Swaziland Barbados Mali Sudan Central African Rep Trinidad and Tobago Chad Haiti Aruba Suriname Equatorial Guinea Azerbaijan Bahamas Laos Lesotho Guyana Seychelles Belize Sierra Leone Fiji Macedonia Solomon Islands Botswana Grenada Dominica Papua New Guinea Total (bil. euros)

9 Table A2. Summary statistics, baseline estimation sample, sales (0.51) (0.44) (0.45) (0.46) (0.50) (0.67) (0.61) (0.79) (0.70) number of output categories (0.07) (0.07) (0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.17) (0.17) (0.09) (0.09) export share of sales (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) share of exports to richer countries (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) number of destination countries (0.15) (0.14) (0.14) (0.14) (0.15) (0.33) (0.30) (0.27) (0.27) number of export categories (0.28) (0.26) (0.26) (0.25) (0.27) (0.72) (0.61) (0.56) (0.59) avg. log income of destination (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.05) (0.04) (0.07) (0.06) (0.07) (0.07) purchases (0.43) (0.35) (0.36) (0.43) (0.42) (0.37) (0.32) (0.55) (0.47) number of input categories (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.14) (0.14) (0.15) (0.15) import share of purchases (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) share of imports from richer countries (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) number of source countries (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.08) (0.18) (0.17) (0.14) (0.14) number of import categories (0.65) (0.64) (0.61) (0.59) (0.59) (1.19) (1.51) (1.28) (1.33) average log income of source (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.06) (0.05) (0.06) (0.06) fraction exporter fraction importer N (firms) Notes: Table reports averages across firms, weighting firms equally. Average income of sales destinations and purchase sources include the home market as possible destination or source, as described in Section 4 of the text. Sales and purchases are in millions of 2000 Euros, avg. incomes of destination and source in thousands of 2000 Euros.

10 Table A3. Source-country characteristics and import prices in cross section, 1997 dep. var.: firm-product log import price (1) (2) (3) (4) richer than Portugal 0.58*** 0.33*** (0.11) (0.10) log GDP/cap. 0.23*** 0.13*** (0.03) (0.03) log GDP 0.08*** *** 0.02 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) European Union -0.34*** *** (0.12) (0.13) (0.08) (0.10) landlocked 0.20*** *** (0.06) (0.07) (0.04) (0.06) log distance (0.05) (0.06) (0.03) (0.05) product effects Y N Y N firm-product effects N Y N Y R N Notes: Sample is all firm-input-source observations in 1997 for firms in baseline estimation sample. Euro-zone origins included. Richer than Portugal defined using 1996 GDP/capita, consistent with our use of 1996 values elsewhere; log GDP/cap. variable is from Robust standard errors, clustered by source country, in parentheses.

11 Table A4. Destination characteristics in cross section, 1997, excluding Euro-zone dep. var.: firm-product log export price (1) (2) (3) (4) richer than Portugal 0.092*** 0.107*** (0.032) (0.027) log GDP/cap ** 0.033*** (0.011) (0.010) log GDP (0.004) (0.005) (0.005) (0.006) European Union 0.063** *** (0.026) (0.023) (0.027) (0.025) landlocked (0.039) (0.053) (0.040) (0.062) log distance 0.054*** 0.042*** 0.055*** 0.044*** (0.013) (0.008) (0.014) (0.009) product effects Y N Y N firm-product effects N Y N Y R N Notes: Sample is firm-product-destination observations in 1997 for firms in estimation sample, excluding Euro-zone destinations. Results when including Euro-zone destinations are similar (see Table 3). Richer than Portugal defined using 1996 GDP/capita, consistent with our use of 1996 values elsewhere; log GDP/cap. variable is from Robust standard errors, clustered by destination, in parentheses.

12 Table A5. Sales response to real-exchange-rate movements, alternative specification dep. var.: sinh 1 (sales) (1) (2) (3) (4) log(rer) 0.370*** 0.489*** 0.356*** 0.403*** (0.049) (0.048) (0.082) (0.050) log(rer)*1(any exports in 1997) 0.215** (0.101) log(rer)*(sales share in 1997) 0.037*** (0.005) firm effects Y destination effects Y firm-destination effects N Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y R N Notes: Table similar to Table 4 but with inverse hyperbolic sine of firm s sales (rather than firm s sales share) as dependent variable. Robust standard errors, clustered at firm-year level, in parentheses.

13 Table A6. Export price and quantity response to real-exchange-rate movements dep. var.: log export quantity log export price (1) (2) (3) (4) log(rer t ) 0.373*** 0.383*** 0.085*** 0.040* (0.080) (0.079) (0.025) (0.023) log(rer t 1 ) (0.072) (0.069) (0.025) (0.024) log(rer t 2 ) (0.058) (0.058) (0.021) (0.024) log(rer t 3 ) * (0.061) (0.058) (0.026) (0.022) firm-product-destination effects Y Y Y Y year effects Y N Y N product-year effects N Y N Y R N Notes: log real exchange rate (log(rer)) defined as in (20) in text. Observations are at the firm-destinationproduct-year level for firms in the estimation sample, excluding Euro-zone destinations. Robust standard errors, clustered at firm-year level, in parentheses.

14 Table A7. Examining role of intensive and extensive margins, OLS estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) log avg. dest. gdp/cap. (intensive) 0.051** 0.050** 0.048** 0.047** (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) log avg. dest. gdp/cap. (extensive) (0.016) (0.017) (0.018) (0.018) log(1 + avg. dest. distance) (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) export share of sales (0.030) (0.030) log sales 0.024*** (0.007) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y R N Notes: Table similar to Table 5, using baseline estimation sample. Variation over time in log average destination GDP/capita (intensive) reflects only changes in sales shares to continuing destinations. Variation in log average destination GDP/capita (extensive) reflects solely movements in sales shares associated with exit and entry in destinations. See footnote 34. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

15 Table A8. Linear probability model of export entry, IV estimates dep. var.: indicator for any exports richer than Portugal poorer than Portugal all destinations (1) (2) (3) firm-avg log real input price * (0.007) (0.002) (0.002) initial destination interactions Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y destination-year effects Y Y Y N Notes: Data are at firm-destination-year level. Estimating equation is (27) in Section 5.2. Instruments are interactions of indicators for positive imports to source in 1997 and log real-exchange rates for Portugal s top 100 non-euro-zone export destinations. First-stage results are in Appendix Table B15. Robust standard errors, clustered at firm-year level, in parentheses.

16 Table A9. Destination income and firm average input prices, LIML estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.99*** 0.90*** 1.18*** 1.15*** 1.39*** 0.96** (0.33) (0.32) (0.44) (0.44) (0.49) (0.48) log(1+avg dest. distance) -0.02*** * 0.25** (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.09) (0.12) export share of sales -0.57** -0.56** -1.71** (0.23) (0.23) (0.70) (0.68) log sales 0.02** (0.01) (0.01) (0.02) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Table presents limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimates of equation (23) in text. Instruments are interactions of indicators for positive exports to destination in 1997 and log real-exchange rate for Portugal s top 100 non-euro-zone export destinations. Initial source interactions, included directly as covariates, are defined analogously to the instruments, using indicators for initial imports. Columns 1 to 4 treat only log avg. destination GDP/cap as endogenous; Column 5 adds log(1 + avg. destination distance), and Column 6 adds export share of sales to endogenous set. Destination gdp/cap measured in Robust standard errors in parentheses.

17 Table A10. Reduced form, income-group instruments dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) log(rer it), inc. ranks ** 0.139** 0.138** 0.140** 0.140** 0.140** (0.061) (0.061) (0.061) (0.061) (0.061) (0.061) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.080) (0.080) (0.080) (0.080) (0.080) (0.080) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.053) (0.053) (0.053) (0.053) (0.053) (0.053) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.070) (0.070) (0.070) (0.069) (0.069) (0.069) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.037) (0.037) (0.037) (0.037) (0.037) (0.037) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.045) (0.045) (0.045) (0.045) (0.045) (0.045) log(rer it), inc. ranks * 0.052* 0.052* 0.052* (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) (0.031) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.043) (0.043) (0.043) (0.043) (0.043) (0.043) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.081) (0.081) (0.081) (0.081) (0.081) (0.081) log(rer it), inc. ranks ** ** ** ** ** ** (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) (0.027) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.073) (0.073) (0.073) (0.073) (0.073) (0.073) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.125) (0.125) (0.125) (0.124) (0.124) (0.124) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.116) (0.116) (0.116) (0.116) (0.116) (0.116) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) log(rer it), inc. ranks * * * * * * (0.287) (0.287) (0.287) (0.288) (0.287) (0.287) log(rer it), inc. ranks (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) log(1+avg dest. distance) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) export share of sales (0.027) (0.027) (0.023) log sales 0.024*** 0.024*** 0.024*** (0.007) (0.007) (0.007) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y Y Y firm, year effects Y Y Y Y Y Y R N F-stat (insts=0) Notes: Table presents reduced-form estimates corresponding to the alternatve IV model described in Section 5.4 and reported in Table 8. Instruments are log weighted-average RERs at the country-income-group level, weighting by firm-level initial export shares to destination, as defined in equation (22). Euro-zone countries and countries outside of Portugal s top 100 export destinations excluded when constructing instruments. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

18 Table A11. Excluding initial source interactions, OLS estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.065*** 0.073*** 0.074*** 0.069** (0.023) (0.024) (0.028) (0.028) log(1+avg dest. distance) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) export share of sales (0.031) (0.031) log sales 0.024*** (0.007) initial source interactions N N N N firm effects Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y R N Notes: Table is similar to Table 5 but excludes the initial source interactions (interactions of indicators for positive imports from origin in 1997 and log RER). Robust standard errors in parentheses.

19 Table A12. Excluding initial source interactions, IV estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.56*** 0.52** 0.69*** 0.67*** 0.70*** 0.65*** (0.20) (0.20) (0.25) (0.25) (0.25) (0.25) log(1+avg dest. distance) -0.01*** * 0.05** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) (0.02) export share of sales -0.32** -0.31** -0.60*** (0.13) (0.13) (0.20) (0.30) log sales 0.02*** 0.02** 0.01* (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) initial source interactions N N N N N N firm effects Y Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Table is similar to Table 6 but excludes the initial source interactions (interactions of indicators for positive imports from origin in 1997 and log RER). First-stage results in Appendix Table B16. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

20 Table A13. Including current source interactions, OLS estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.06*** 0.07*** 0.07** 0.07** (0.02) (0.02) (0.03) (0.03) log(1+avg dest. distance) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) export share of sales (0.03) (0.03) log sales 0.02*** (0.01) current source interactions Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y R N Notes: Table is similar to Table 5 but includes current source interactions (interactions of indicators for positive imports from origin in current year and log real-exchange rate) instead of initial source interactions. standard errors, clustered at destination-year level, in parentheses. Robust

21 Table A14. Including current source interactions, IV estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.58*** 0.54*** 0.74*** 0.73*** 0.78*** 0.75*** (0.21) (0.21) (0.26) (0.26) (0.26) (0.26) log(1+avg dest. distance) -0.01*** * 0.05* (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) (0.02) export share of sales -0.35** -0.34** -0.63*** (0.14) (0.14) (0.21) (0.30) log sales 0.02*** 0.02** 0.01** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) current source interactions Y Y Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Table is similar to Table 6 but includes current source interactions (interactions of indicators for positive imports from origin in current year and log real-exchange rate) instead of initial source interactions. First-stage results in Appendix Table B17. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

22 Table A15. Excluding richest destinations from instrument set, IV estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price excluding from instrument set the richest 5 dest. 10 dest. 15 dest. 20 dest. 25 dest. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.65** 0.77*** 0.69** 0.69*** 0.58** (0.26) (0.27) (0.27) (0.26) (0.29) log(1+avg dest. distance) 0.06** 0.07*** 0.06** 0.05** 0.05* (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) export share of sales (0.31) (0.32) (0.33) (0.33) (0.34) log sales (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Specifications are similar to Table 6 Column 6, but excluding subsets of the richest destinations from instrument set. Column 1 excludes the 5 richest non-euro-zone countries, leaving the other 95 destinations in the instrument set, and similarly for the other columns. First-stage results in Appendix Tables B5-B9. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

23 Table A16. Excluding poorest destinations from instrument set, IV estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price excluding from instrument set the poorest 5 dest. 10 dest. 15 dest. 20 dest. 25 dest. (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.69** 0.66** 0.67** 0.63** 0.54* (0.27) (0.27) (0.27) (0.27) (0.28) log(1+avg dest. distance) 0.06** 0.05* 0.06* 0.06* 0.05* (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) (0.03) export share of sales (0.32) (0.33) (0.34) (0.34) (0.35) log sales * (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Specifications are similar to Table 6 Column 6, but excluding subsets of the poorest destinations from instrument set. Column 1 excludes the 5 poorest non-euro-zone countries, leaving the other 95 destinations in the instrument set, and similarly for the other columns. First-stage results in Appendix Tables B10-B14. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

24 Table A17. Destination income and firm average input prices, two-step feasible EGMM estimates dep. var.: firm-average log real input price (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) log avg. destination gdp/cap 0.41** 0.37** 0.44** 0.42** 0.47** 0.42* (0.17) (0.17) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.22) log(1+avg dest. distance) -0.01** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.02) (0.02) export share of sales -0.19* ** (0.11) (0.11) (0.19) (0.27) log sales 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) initial source interactions Y Y Y Y Y Y firm effects Y Y Y Y Y Y year effects Y Y Y Y Y Y N Kleibergen-Paap LM statistic (under-identification) Kleibergen-Paap LM p-value Kleibergen-Paap Wald rk F-stat (weak insts.) Anderson-Rubin Wald test F-stat Anderson-Rubin Wald test p-value Notes: Table reports estimates of equation (23) in text, using a two-step feasible efficient GMM estimator. Specifications are similar to those in Table 6. Robust standard errors in parentheses.

Export Destinations and Input Prices. Appendix A

Export Destinations and Input Prices Paulo Bastos Joana Silva Eric Verhoogen Jan. 2016 Appendix A For Online Publication Figure A1. Real Exchange Rate, Selected Richer Export Destinations UK USA Sweden