Räumliche Wahlmöglichkeiten in Szenarien der Siedlungs- und Verkehrsentwicklung - eine vergleichende Bewertung

Transcription

1 Räumliche Wahlmöglichkeiten in Szenarien der Siedlungs- und Verkehrsentwicklung - eine vergleichende Bewertung Spatial options of choice in scenarios of developement of built-up areas and transportation - a comparative evaluation Henning Krug, City of Heidelberg, Germany mobil.tum 2008, München

2 Structure Relevant characteristics 5 guiding models Evaluating accessibility: spatial options of choice Case study: scenarios in Ostwestfalen-Lippe Results: comparative evaluation

3 Relevant characteristics of built-up areas on different scales Street Quarter 50m, 1ha, 1:500 Walking (Cycling) Public Transport 500m, 1km, 1: > 5km, 100km2, 1: Orientation buildings > street Density of activities Mix of activities Settlement units defined by walking distances Mix of different activities for presence Concentration of retail etc Compact geometry (min. length of margins) Open and integrated street Network Networks of open space Density of activities Settlement units defined by walking distance of stns. Orientation buildings -> street Mix of different activities for presence Private Motorcar Region Buildings turn away from the street Mix of activities (for steady capacity utilization) Settlement units along axes of public transport Concentration of retail etc at stations Densely laced networks Low density Dispersed settlement Separated networks Uninhabited corridors for Expressways Low density Concentr. around nodes Concentrations of retail etc around junctions Local Urbanity Regional Geometry

4 Guiding models Settlement Compact City Network of Towns 5 km Transportation Relations

5 What is Mobility?

6 Spatial options of choice = Degrees of freedom people have to choose their spatial destinations and relations

7 Spatial options of choice as an integrative aproach T r a n s p o r ta tio n S y s te m N e tw o r k -G e o m e tr y N e tw o r k -R e s is ta n c e S e ttle m e n t S y s te m S p a tia l D is tr ib u tio n o f In h a b ita n ts, W o r k p la c e s e tc E xpense A c c e s s ib ility O p p o r tu n itie s, R e la tio n s S e tt le m e n t m o d e l T r a n s p o r ta t io n m o d e l S patial Options of C hoice

8 Pattern Characteristics Examples drawn from the map a) kleinste Gebäudesignatur in sehr 1 aufgelockerter Anordnung Detached (max. 100 Gebäude) oder Housing b) dörfliche Grundrisse (Mischung Einzelhaus landwirtschaftl. Gebäude) loose 500 x 500 m = 25 ha 2 Detached Housing Patterns of built-up areas in the topographical map 1: kleinste Gebäudesignatur (max. 10 größere Gebäude) sofern nicht Typ 1 3 Detached Housing, Slabs a) Mischung von Einzelhausbebauung und größeren Gebäuden (mind. 20 Kleinstgebäude) oder b) sehr kurze Zeilen bzw. Reihen (max. 10 Gebäude 50 m (1 mm) oder länger) 4 Slabs a) überwiegend längere Gebäudezeilen, meist in Gruppen parallel angeordnet oder b) besondere Geometrien bzw. Punkthäuser mit größerem Abstand 5 Block 6 Block dense 7 Factory Buildings 8 Factory B. dense + Campus a) größere, überwiegend dem Straßenverlauf folgende Gebäude (max. 19 Kleinstgebäude, sofern nicht Typ 6 oder b) kleinstädtische Kerne a) Blockränder weitgehend geschlossen und mind. vereinzelte Hofbebauung oder b) Blockränder zu mind. 50% geschlossen und intensive Hofbebauung Gewerbe- und Industriebebauung, max % überbaut a) Großgebäude mit hohem Überbauungsgrad oder b) Gebäudekomplex besondere Geometrien bildend (Messe, Uni-Campus etc.)

9 Correlation between patterns of built-up areas and the density of inhabitants and workplaces

10 Correlation between patterns of built-up areas and the density of inhabitants and workplaces Estimated intervals, means urban = 140 semiurban = 80 suburban = 40

11 Spatial options of choice = the ease to communicate face-to-face High density Low density C = Σij Oj x Aij Opportunity indicator 10 : 2 C = Σij Oi x Oj x Aij Communication indicator 25 : 1

12 Settlement modell: spatial distribution of opportunities Activities Living 35 % 35 % Working 10 % 10 % Services Leisure Other Distribution of opportunities 3-10 % 9-12 % 3% % as inhabitants and workplaces 10-3 % 7-4 % 3% % clustering at nodes 7% 9% 4% 20 % otherwise 20 % 25 % 10 % = 100 %

13 Car transport model Fahrgeschwindigkeit urban semiurban suburban außerorts Nebenstraßen Hauptstraßen Schnellstraßen / / Geschwindigkeitsäquivalente urban semiurban suburban außerorts Nebenstraßen Hauptstraßen Schnellstraßen / / 29 35

14 Research area km 5

15 Local urbanity km

16 Existing conditions ÖV Nahverkehr 7,5-Minuten-Takt 15-/ 30-Minuten-Takt 60-Minuten-Takt ÖV Regionalverkehr 15-/ 30-Minuten-Takt 60-Minuten-Takt km

17 Compact City km

18 km

19 km

20 Network of Towns km

21 km

22 Results Spatial options of choice Potential connections in mio. Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 1,2 5,5 28,3 19,4 3,2 9,4 13,9 20,6 0,2 0,8 0,5 9,7 0,7 2,3 4,1 11,2 1,2 5,4 22,4 27,5 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation 2,5 Social Public transport 6,9 Compact City 2,5 1,8 0,9 5,5 3,4 0,1 Ecological Walking and cycling 4,5 2,1 2,1 0,3

23 Sensitivity analysis Potential connections in mio. Assumption low income Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 1,2 5,5 19,6 4,1 3,2 9,4 10,9 4,9 0,2 0,8 0,3 3,1 0,7 2,3 3,1 3,2 1,2 5,4 15,9 6,3 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation Compact City 5,0 3,4 6,3 5,1 3,5 0,1 Ecological Walking and cycling 6,1 Social Public transport 4,5 2,1 2,1 0,3

24 Sensitivity analysis Potential connections in mio. Assumption high income Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 1,2 4,4 36,7 58,9 3,2 9,4 17,8 62,9 0,2 0,8 0,0 22,9 0,7 2,3 5,0 29,1 1,2 5,4 28,5 78,2 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation Social Public transport Compact City 2,5 2,0 2,2 0,8 7,4 5,0 3,6 0,0 Ecological Walking and cycling 4,5 1,7 2,1 0,3

25 Sensitivity analysis Potential connections in mio. only inhabitants and workplaces Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 0.3 1,3 7,9 6,2 0,7 2,3 3,2 5,6 0,1 0,3 0,2 3,4 0,1 0,6 3,8 0,3 1,3 5,8 7,2 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation Social Public transport Compact City 1,9 2,1 1,5 0,9 7,6 5,6 3,1 0,2 Ecological Walking and cycling 4,2 2,0 2,0 0,5

26 Sensitivity analysis Potential connections in mio. Car-sharing and bike & ride Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 1,2 5,5 40,8 35,6 3,2 9,4 18,1 37,4 0,2 0,8 0,5 13,4 0,7 2,3 5,6 17,7 1,2 5,4 35,0 47,5 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation Social Public transport Compact City 2,7 2,3 2,1 0,8 7,3 6,3 3,2 0,1 Ecological Walking and cycling 4,5 2,1 2,1 0,3

27 Sensitivity analysis from the user s point of view Opportunity-indicator and variable user costs only Potential connections in mio. Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 10,1 28,2 189,0 185,5 18,3 46,6 109,2 187,0 3,9 15,8 10,0 301,8 7,0 25,1 102,7 252,9 10,1 28,3 133,8 235,2 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation Social Public transport 0,7 Compact City 0,7 1,2 0,9 1,8 1,1 1,3 0,1 Ecological Walking and cycling 2,2 1,3 0,6 1,3

28 Results Potential connections in mio. Network of Towns Compact City Comparison for hypothesis I Ped. Bike PT Car 1,2 5,5 28,3 19,4 3,2 9,4 13,9 20,6 0,2 0,8 0,5 9,7 0,7 2,3 4,1 11,2 1,2 5,4 22,4 27,5 Comparison for hypothesis III Comparison for hypothesis II Comparative evaluation ( = 1) Network of Towns Economic Best means of transportation 2,5 Social Public transport 6,9 Compact City 2,5 1,8 0,9 5,5 3,4 0,1 Ecological Walking and cycling 4,5 2,1 2,1 0,3

29 km

30 Conclusions Spatial options of choice instead of traffic behaviour: a new paradigma? Quasi-endless settlement networks instead of central place theory Local urbanity: polarisation instead of levelling Political reforms instead of "planning against the market"