Growth and Comparative Development
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1 Growth and Comparative Development Oded Galor AEA Continuing Education Program Lecture I AEA 2014 Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
2 Introduction Comparative Development Income per Capita across the Globe in Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
3 Introduction Comparative Development Divergence across Regions: ,000 25,000 GDP Per Capita (1990 Int'l $) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Africa Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
4 Introduction Comparative Development Regional Income per Capita: ,000 25,000 GDP Per Capita (1990 Int'l $) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Africa Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
5 Introduction Comparative Development Evolution of Inequality across Regions: Income per Capita (1990 Int l $) Western Offshoots ,302 29,564 Western Europe ,455 20,889 Latin America ,767 Asia ,307 Africa ,034 Richest-Poorest Ratio Western Offshoots: USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
6 Introduction Comparative Development Income Distribution in 1960 Density of Countries Log Income per Capita 1960 Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
7 Introduction Comparative Development Lack of Convergence across Nations: Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
8 Introduction Comparative Development Lack of Convergence across Nations: Density of Countries Log Income per Capita Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
9 Introduction Comparative Development Persistent Inequality across Nations: Ln GDP per Capita in 2000 (relative to the US) LUX JPN NOR USA CHE ISL DNK HKG IRL BEL AUT SWE SGP FIN FRA NLDGBR AUS ISR ITA PRI BHS ESP NZL KOR MLT PRT GRC OMN SYC ARG LBY MEX TTOURY HUN CHL VEN MYS GAB PAN CRI BLZ BRA BWA VCT ZAF DOM THA COLFJI SLV PER GTM DZA EGY PRY MAR ECU SYR CHN PHL COG HND GUY BOL IDN LKA NIC PNG CMR ZWECIV PAK LSO IND HTI MRT KEN SEN BGDSDN NGA BEN ZMB CAF BFA TGO GHA NPL RWA MDG MWI TCD LBR SLE NER BDI ZAR Ln GDP per Capita in 1960 (relative to the US) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
10 Introduction Comparative Development Fundamental Research Questions What is the origin of the vast inequality in income per capita across countries and regions? What accounts for the divergence in per-capita income across countries in the past two centuries? What are the factors that inhibited the convergence of poor economies toward richer ones in the past decades? What is the role of deep-rooted factors in explaining the observed patterns of comparative development? Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
11 Phases of Development: Modes of Production Agriculture Industry Hunting-Gathering Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
12 Phases of Development: Standard of Living The Malthusian Epoch The Post-Malthusian Regime The Modern Growth Regime Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
13 Phases of Development: Timeline of the Most Developed Economies Malthusian Epoch (99.8%) 150K BP 1750s Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
14 Phases of Development: Timeline of the Most Developed Economies Malthusian Epoch (99.8%) 150K BP 1750s Post-Malthusian (0.1%) 1750s 1870s 2014 Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
15 Phases of Development: Timeline of the Most Developed Economies Malthusian Epoch (99.8%) 150K BP 1750s Post-Malthusian (0.1%) 1750s 1870s 2014 Modern Growth (0.1%) 1870s 2014 Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
16 World Income per Capita: GDP Per Capita (1990 Int'l $) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
17 Growth of World Income per Capita: % 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
18 The Malthusian Epoch The Malthusian Epoch Income per capita fluctuates around a subsistence level Characteristics of the period: Income per capita has a positive effect on population growth Fixed factor of production (land) = Diminishing returns to labor Technological progress, land expansion or adverse shock to population = Temporary increase in the level of income per capita = Increase in the size of the population = Marginal productivity of labor returns to its previous level = No effect on the level of income per capita in the long run Technologically advanced & land-rich economies: Higher population density Largely similar levels of income per-capita in the long-run Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
19 Real Farm Wages (1775=100) The Malthusian Epoch Population (millions) Malthusian Adjustments to the Black Death: England, Real Wages Population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
20 The Malthusian Epoch Land Productivity and Population Density in 1500 Conditional on transition timing, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
21 The Malthusian Epoch Land Productivity and Population Density in 1500 (Income Sample) Conditional on transition timing, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
22 The Malthusian Epoch Land Productivity and Income per Capita in 1500 Conditional on transition timing, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
23 The Malthusian Epoch Technology and Population Density in 1500 Years elapsed since the Neolithic Transition reflects the technological level in Conditional on land productivity, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
24 The Malthusian Epoch Technology and Population Density in 1500 (Income Sample) Years elapsed since the Neolithic Transition reflects the technological level in Conditional on land productivity, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
25 The Malthusian Epoch Technology and Income per Capita in 1500 Years elapsed since the Neolithic Transition reflects the technological level in Conditional on land productivity, geographical factors, and continental fixed effects. Source: Ashraf-Galor (AER 2011) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
26 The Post-Malthusian Regime The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off from a Malthusian equilibrium: Technological progress accelerates Income per capita still has a positive effect on population growth Technological progress generates: Rapid increase in total output Relatively slower increase in population (Malthusian adjustment) Increase in per-capita income Faster growth of income per capita and population (relative to the Malthusian regime) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
27 The Post-Malthusian Regime Regional Variation in the Timing of the Take-off 30,000 25,000 GDP Per Capita (1990 Int'l $) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Africa Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
28 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita World 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
29 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita Western Offshoots 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
30 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita Western Europe 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
31 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita Latin America 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
32 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita Africa 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
33 The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off: Growth of Population & Income per Capita Asia 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Growth of income per capita Growth of population Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
34 Per Capita Industrialization The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off & Increased Industrialization per Capita USA Germany Canada United Kingdom France Japan Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
35 Per Capita Industrialization The Post-Malthusian Regime Take-off in Developed Economies & Decline in Industrialization in LDCs Third World India China Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
36 The Modern Growth Regime The Modern Growth Regime The emergence of sustained economic growth Acceleration in technological progress = Industrial demand for human capital Human capital formation = Decline in fertility rates = Further technological progress Population growth declines = Economic growth is freed from counterbalancing effects of population Technological progress, human capital & decline in population growth = Sustained economic growth Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
37 GDP Per Capita (log scale) The Modern Growth Regime Sustained Economic Growth: ,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
38 GDP Per Capita (log scale) The Modern Growth Regime Regional Variation in Growth of Income per Capita: ,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Africa Asia Eastern Europe Latin America Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
39 The Demographic Transition Years Elapsed since the Onset of the Fertility Decline N.A Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
40 The Demographic Transition Early Fertility Decline Western Offshoots 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
41 The Demographic Transition Early Fertility Decline Western Europe 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
42 The Demographic Transition Early Fertility Decline Eastern Europe 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
43 The Demographic Transition Late Fertility Decline Latin America 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
44 The Demographic Transition Late Fertility Decline Asia 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
45 The Demographic Transition Late Fertility Decline Africa 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
46 The Demographic Transition Timing of the Demographic Transition and Current Income per Capita Log Income Per Capita in BTN LAO MLI NPL AGO GIN NGA TGO LBR MYS SYC JPN USA TTO KWT BHR ISR ATG DNK NOR CHE ECU PAN SAU KOR FIN CAN CRI ITA GBR AUT VEN SUR NLD BEL DEU FRASWE COL BRA ESP KEN LBY MEX BWA LBN CHLBLZ MUS PER PRT ARG THA IDNGUY JAMURY SLV RWA GTMZAF CMR DOM LKA HUN NAM IRNPRY HND NIC DJI JOR DZA PHL CIVTUN BOL EGY SWZ SYR BDI COM CAF BEN VNM CHN ROM TZA GHA KHM SDN SEN ALB MAR BGR AZE ARM IND HTI GMB MRT ZMB GEO LSO ZWE ETHBGD UZB MDGERI MNG MWI NER KGZ Years Elapsed since the Demographic Transition coef = , (robust) se = , t = Conditional on absolute latitude. Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
47 The Demographic Transition Timing of the Demographic Transition and Divergence across Regions 30,000 25,000 GDP Per Capita (1990 Int'l $) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, Western Europe Western Offshoots Eastern Europe Latin America Asia Africa Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
48 Challenges for Growth Theory The Malthusian Epoch Puzzling Patterns for Growth Theory: The Malthusian Epoch What accounts for the epoch of stagnation that characterized most of human history? Why did increased productivity lead to increased population rather than higher income per capita? Why did episodes of technological progress in the pre-industrialization era fail to generate sustained economic growth? Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
49 Challenges for Growth Theory The Transition from Stagnation to Growth Puzzling Patterns for Growth Theory: Transition from Stagnation to Growth What is the origin of the sudden increase in growth rates of income per capita and population? What triggered the demographic transition? Is a demographic transition critical for the transition to a state of sustained economic growth? What factors account for the transition from stagnation to growth of DCs? What are their implications for the hurdles faced by LDCs in the transition from stagnation to growth? Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
50 Challenges for Growth Theory Comparative Development Puzzling Patterns for Growth Theory: Comparative Development What accounts for the sudden take-off from stagnation to growth in some countries and the persistent stagnation in others? What governs the differential timing of the demographic transition across the globe? What is the origin of the vast inequality in income per capita that emerged across countries in the past two centuries? What is the contribution of deep rooted factors to the vast inequality across countries? Has the earlier transition of advanced economies adversely affected the process of development in LDCs? Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
51 Challenges for Growth Theory Limitations of Non-Unified Growth Theory Non-Unified Growth Theory (GT) Inconsistent with the development process over most of human history: GT: growth rates decline in the transition to sustained growth Evidence: non-decreasing growth rates in the development of DCs GT: technological progress increases steady-state income per capita Malthusian Epoch - tech progress had no effect on LR income GT: does not capture the demographic transition (DT) Evidence: DT is central for the take-off to modern growth GT: does not capture the take-off from stagnation to growth Evidence: key for the understanding of comparative development GT: convergence Evidence: divergence in the past two centuries Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
52 Challenges for Growth Theory Limitations of Non-Unified Growth Theory Non-Unified Growth Theory Captures the role of factor accumulation and technological progress in the modern growth regime Not designed to shed light on: The historical origins of vast and persistent inequality across countries The forces that triggered the transition of DCs from stagnation to growth The hurdles faced by LDCs in their take-off from stagnation to growth The factors that hindered convergence across countries The role of deep rooted factors in comparative development Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
53 Evolution of the Growth Literature Proximate Causes of Growth Proximate Causes of Growth Factor Accumulation: Physical capital accumulation (Solow, QJE 1956) Human capital accumulation (Lucas, JME 1998) Technological Progress: Endogenous Growth (Romer, JPE 1990; Grossman-Helpman, 1991; Aghion-Howitt, ECT 1992) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
54 Evolution of the Growth Literature Proximate Causes of Growth Proximate Causes of Growth Major Challenge Why do some societies fail to: Effi ciently invest in physical and human capital? Adopt advance technologies? In the absence of barriers to accumulation and innovations, Access to international capital markets Technological diffusion Global education and health campaigns = convergence Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
55 Evolution of the Growth Literature More Fundamental Causes of Growth Barriers to Accumulation and Innovation Inequality Suboptimal accumulation of human and physical capital Credit market imperfections (Galor-Zeira, RES 1993) Sociopolitical instability (Alesina et al., JEG 1996) Inferior institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997) Ineffi cient provision of education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009) Ethnic fractionalization Sociopolitical instability & Ineffi cient provision of public goods Suboptimal investment (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997; Alesina et al., JEG 2003) Institutions (limited protection of property rights & rule of law) Reduced incentive to accumulate/innovate (North, 1981; Acemoglu-Robinson, 2012) Social capital (limited trust & cooperation) Increased investment cost (Putnam, 1993; Guiso et al., JEP 2006; Tabellini, JEEA 2010) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
56 Evolution of the Growth Literature More Fundamental Causes of Growth Colonialism and the Persistent Effects of Institutions and Human Capital Persistent effect of institutions implemented by colonial powers Reversal of fortune (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu et al., AER 2001, QJE 2002) Exclusive institutions imposed in densely populated areas Inclusive institutions implemented in sparsely populated areas Slavery (Nunn, QJE 2008) Persistent effect of the human capital and diversity brought by the colonists Larger effect of colonizers in sparsely populated areas (Glaeser et al., JEG 2004; Easterly-Levine, 2012; Ashraf-Galor, 2014) Persistent effect of the legal system of colonial powers Common law (Britain) is more complementary than civil law (France, Spain & Portugal) to the development of financial systems (La Porta et al., JF 1997) Persistent effect of artificial borders & ethnic division created by colonists Sub-Saharan Africa (Alesina et al., JEEA 2011; Papaioannou-Michalopoulos, ECT 2012) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
57 Evolution of the Growth Literature More Fundamental Causes of Growth Origin and Persistence of Cultural Factors Geographical origins and persistence of: Trust & cooperation (Guiso et al., QJE 2009; Algan-Cahuc, AER 2010; Durante, 2010; Litina, 2012) Cultural diversity (Ashraf-Galor, 2012) The European Marriage Pattern (Voigtlander-Voth, AER 2013) Female labor force participation (Alesina et al., QJE 2013) Technological origins and persistence of: Female emancipation & labor force participation (Galor-Weil, AER 1996; Fernández- Fogli-Olivetti, QJE 2004; Greenwood-Seshadri-Yorukoglu, RES 2005; Doepke-Tertilt, QJE 2009) Religious origins of: Preferences for human capital (Becker-Woessmann, QJE 2009; Botticini-Eckstein, 2012) Work ethic & thrift & entrepreneurial spirit (Weber, 1905; Andersen et al., 2013) Intergenerational transmission of: Preferences for human capital (Galor-Moav, QJE 2002) Entrepreneurial spirit & thrift (Deopke-Zilibotti, QJE 2008; Galor-Michalopoulos, JET 2012) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
58 Evolution of the Growth Literature Ultimate Causes of Growth Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors Biogeographical conditions that triggered the Neolithic Revolution Technological head-start: (Diamond, 1997; Olsson-Hibbs, EER, 2005) Persistent effect on population density (1-1500) (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2011) No effect on contemporary income per capita (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013) Persistence effect on life expectancy (Galor-Moav, 2009) Disease environment Persistent effect on labor productivity & investment in human capital (Gallup-Sachs, 2001; Andersen-Dalgaard-Selaya, 2012) Geographical isolation Reduced trade and technological diffusion (Gallup-Mellinger-Sachs, 1999) Persistence of culture conducive for innovations (Ashraf-Galor-Ozak, JEEA 2010) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
59 Evolution of the Growth Literature Ultimate Causes of Growth Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors Land suitable for large plantations Inequality: Extractive institutions (Engerman-Sokoloff, 1997) Concentration of landownership: Suboptimal investment in public education (Galor-Moav-Vollrath, RES 2009) Soil quality conducive for agriculture Specialization in unskilled-intensive goods Reduces human capital formation & increases fertility & slows the transition to modern growth (Galor-Mountford, RES 2008) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
60 Evolution of the Growth Literature Ultimate Causes of Growth Persistent Effects of Geographical Factors Range of soil quality Emergence of geographical specific human capital = reduced mobility = ethnic fractionalization (Michalopoulos, AER 2012) Persistent effect of ethnic fractionalization (Easterly-Levine, QJE 1997) Ecological diversity & storable crops Emergence & persistence of state capacity (Fenske, JEEA 2014; Mayshar-Moav-Neeman, 2013) Geographical determinants of body size Determined fertility & income per capita in the Malthusian epoch and the timing of the take-off (Dalgaard-Strulik, 2013) Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
61 Evolution of the Growth Literature Ultimate Causes of Growth Persistent Effects of Genetic Factors Natural selection of traits that are complementary to the growth process: Preference for education (Galor-Moav, QJE 2002; Galor-Klemp, 2013) Entrepreneurial spirit (Galor-Michalopoulos, JET 2012) Genetic distance between societies reduces: Diffusion from the technological frontier (Spolaore-Wacziarg, QJE 2009) Interstate wars (Spolaore-Wacziarg, 2013) Genetic diversity (GD) within a society: Reduces cohesiveness: Higher cultural fragmentation (Ashraf-Galor, AER-PP 2013) Increased mistrust & prevalence of civil conflict (Arbatli-Ashraf-Galor, 2013) Generates a wider range of complementarity traits conducive for innovations Has a hump-shaped relationship with productivity (Ashraf-Galor, AER 2013) Lower income in overly homogenous & diverse societies Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA / 61
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