Development of modal split modeling for Chennai

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1 IJMTES International Journal of Modern Trends in Engineering and Science ISSN: 8- Development of modal split modeling for Chennai Mr.S.Loganayagan Dr.G.Umadevi (Department of Civil Engineering, Bannari Amman Institute of Technology, Erode, India, ( Division of Transportation Engineering, Anna University, Chennai, India Abstract The concept of modal split is simple, but there is considerable confusion in the literature between the terms Mode Choice and Modal Split. The term Mode Choice refers to the process, where the traveller chooses a particular mode for his trip. His choice is made simultaneously with the decision to travel, the choice of destination and the route to be taken. The term, modal split is taken as the proportionate division of the total number of person trips between various means or modes of travel. It is the process of separating persons trips by the mode of travel. It is usually expressed as a fraction, ratio or percentage division between various modes such as car, bus, railway, etc. Usually a basic distinction is made between private modes and mass or public transport. An understanding of modal split is very important in transportation studies. The main objective of the project is to analyses the travel and settlement characteristics of the study area, to develop a modal split model using Stella software and to suggest modal split for the year 06. Various primary and secondary data such as income, trip purpose are collected; the existing travel characteristics are studied. Modal Split is the process of separating persons trips by the mode of travel. It is usually expressed as a fraction, ratio or percentage of the total number of trips. The main factors which affect the modal split are characteristics of the trip, household characteristics, zonal characteristics and network characteristics. To build a modal split model for the prevailing condition and to test the developed model for future scenarios to evolve a optimal and judicial modal mix for Chennai city To recommend the best scenario of modal share in Chennai city towards sustainable transportation planning. Keywords Modal split, Transportation planning, System dynamics simulation modeling, Vehicle Trips. INTRODUCTION Chennai is the fourth largest metropolitan city in India. The city and the metropolitan areas have been growing over the past three decades due to the increasing birth rate and more migration towards the city from rural area for the purpose of employment, business and education etc. the increase in crowd of core cities bound to create the settlements in outer periphery of the city boundary. Randomized development and rapid growth of population in these settlements cause severe problems on the infrastructure available. There are five characteristics of the trip making behaviour that draws special attention Trip purpose Temporal distribution of trip making Spatial distribution of urban travel Selection of the mode used Cost of making the trip Urban Transportation Planning is a process that makes decisions on urban transportation policies and programmes. The planning process relies on travel demand estimation and forecasting, which helps in developing alternative policies and programmes on their impacts on travel in urban areas. The four basic phases in the travel demand forecasting are Trip Generation Trip Distribution Modal Split Trip Assignment Trip Generation is concerned with the estimation of the number of trips that are generated from a given study area. The way in which the trips are exchanged among these zones is determined by trip distribution. The proportion of trips between various modes of transport from one zone to another is established through modal split procedure. The task of assigning the traffic flow through the road network is termed as trip assignment. Demand for transport is created by separation of urban activities. The trips that are produced from and attracted to between the activities, such as location, intensity, socio economic characteristics of the location entire process of transportation planning are taken into account. In this study, the analysis is confined to only one stage of travel demand modeling, i.e. Modal Split. I. STUDY OBJECTIVE To study the trends in existing modal share and its influence on the level of service over a period of time in Chennai city. To build a modal split modelling using System Dynamics model using STELLA software for the existing scenario and test the model for various predicted scenario and policy options. To recommend the best scenario of modal share in Chennai city towards sustainable transportation planning Volume: 0 Issue: 06 June 0

2 IJMTES International Journal of Modern Trends in Engineering and Science ISSN: 8- II. STUDY METHODOLOGY Fig. Study Conceptual Problem definition System conceptualization Model representation Refinement Technical Model behaviour Model evaluation Policy analysis and Model use Methodology IV. PRINCIPLES OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS A system is a collection of interesting elements that function together for some purpose A model is a simplification of real world phenomena; the purpose of a model is to make the behaviour of the real world more understandable. In other words, it is a representation of reality or real world system in a simplified manner. System dynamics is subject to provide in understanding of strategic problems in complex and dynamic systems. System dynamics model, by giving insight feedback processes, provide system uses with a better understanding of the dynamic behaviour of systems. Areas of application of system dynamics have always been very wide, however, with an emphasis on socio-economic applications. Generally the model building process can be divided into two phases namely the Conceptual phase and the Technical phase. It is the process of defining a problem out of a situation, developing various relationships quantitatively, testing the model with several policy options and analysing the behaviour of the model. The various phases in model building process is as shown in Figure. V. STUDY AREA Chennai, India s fourth largest metropolitan city spreads over an area of 89 square kilometre, out of which Municipal Corporation of Chennai constitutes an area of 7 square kilometres. As of 0, Chennai has a population of.68 million within the area administered by the Chennai Corporation and an extended metropolitan population of 9 million. According to the Transport Department's official report, the city s total vehicle population has zoomed to lakhs from a mere 8 lakhs barely years ago. Car and two-wheeler ownership in Chennai per 000 population is and 8 respectively. The two-wheeler population of the city shot up to.8 million in 0 from 0.9 million in 00 while the number of four-wheelers jumped to 0.6 million in 0 from 0. million in 00. SECTORS CONSIDERED Population Transport Sector Volume: 0 Issue: 06 June 0

3 IJMTES International Journal of Modern Trends in Engineering and Science ISSN: 8- Fig. Study Area VI. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS IMN. Population sector Base year = 0 IMR POPULATION Projected year = 06 Chennai City (0 census) BIRTH RATE DEATH RATE Total population persons Birth Rate-.88 per 000 BN OMR DN Death rate 8.6 per 000 In migration.% Graph OMN Table Out migration.% CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM A causal loop diagram shows the cause and effect of each variable with respect to other variables. Usually a positive effect is indicated using the + sign and negative effect with - effect. The causal loop diagrams are represented as an overall effect and separately for the individual sectors The key variables identified under the population sector were birth rate, death rate, in migration and out migration. Although other factors like infant mortality rate and female foeticide are also available they are not taken into account because they are insignificant when compared with the other factors. The causal loop diagram is given as follows. IMN Fig. Population model The population model have been shown in figure which includes the parameters such as birth rate, death rate, in-migration and out-migration which have considered for building the population model. The outputs for this have been given in graphical representation as figure. : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Page : POPULATION : BIRTH RATE : DEATH RATE : IMR : OMR Years :08 PM Thu, Feb, 0 POPULATION (RESULTS) Fig. Results of population model. Transport sector Fig. Causal loop diagram for Population Vehicular Position in Chennai as on Public =98 Two wheeler =8 Cars =6768 School Bus =7 IPT =660 The causal loop diagram for transport sector have been shown in figure 6 and the parameters considered for building Transport model are shown in figure 0 which have separate sector such as public, private and other vehicle sectors are also shown in the figure 7,8 & 9 respectively. Volume: 0 Issue: 06 June 0

4 IJMTES International Journal of Modern Trends in Engineering and Science ISSN: 8- CAUSAL LOOP DIAGRAM Other Vehicle sector School Bus Sch bus Rte Sch bus Trips Sch bus Inc Ipt Trips IPT Ipt Rte Ipt Inc Fig.9 Other Vehicle sector Transport Sector Fig.6 Causal loop diagram for Transport Public Vehicle Sector pub share Car Trips Pub Trips Pub Pub Inc Pub Rte Tw Trips Pub Trips trips Sch bus Trips Ipt Trips Fig.7 Public Vehicle sector Graph Results Tw Trips Private Vehicle Sector TW ~ Tw Rte Fig.0 Transport model The results of the transport model have been shown in figure in graphical representation which gives results of every year respectively. Tw Inc : Pub Trips : trips Car Trips Car Per Inc ~ Car Rte : : : : Fig.8 Private Vehicle sector : : Page Years 7:6 PM Fri, Feb, 0 Untitled Fig. Results of Transport model Volume: 0 Issue: 06 June 0 6

5 IJMTES International Journal of Modern Trends in Engineering and Science ISSN: 8- VII.CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS. Population is expected to become one and half times of current population but immigration rate will gradually deteriorate.. It is observed that work trips and educational trips dominate travel pattern in comparison with other trips.. The modal split between public and private transport will change from :7 to :6 (00), : (0) and 60:0 (06), 6: (0) and 70:0 (06) in line with the trend in share of public transport increasing with City size.. The sub-modal split between bus and rail will have to change from 9:9 to 8: (00), 7: (0), 70.0 (06), 6: (0) and 60:0 (06) if the road transport system is not to break down in the context of increased commuter trips.. The influence of distance on trip rates shows that trip rates increases as the distance increases, for public transport (Bus and Train) and decreases for fast private vehicles(two wheelers and cars). 6. Forecasting future travel and levels by assessing the expected levels of development in the Metropolitan area. 7. The study area has good infrastructure facilities to achieve self sustainability. However efforts should be taken to enhance the quality of basic essential infrastructure facilities and to create still more employment opportunities in settlement. 8. In this study area by augmenting public transport share. There is a substantial reduction in the private mode usage. Hence the public transport facilities should be augmented in future to achieve the sustainable transport development. REFERENCES []. Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA), Chennai Master Plan-II. []. Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority (CMDA),Comprehensive Traffic and Transportation Study. []. Kadiyali. L.R (00), Traffic Engineering and Transport Planning, Khanna Publishers, Delhi. []. Manju.S, (989) a thesis on Modal Split Models for Madras. []. Study on Traffic and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban areas in India (MoUD,GoI,May 008) [6]. Umadevi.G (00) Land use Transport Interaction Modeling -A Sytems Approach Ph.D Thesis, Anna University, Chennai. [7]. browsed on September 0. [8]. browsed on December 0 [9]. browsed on January 0 [0]. browsed on January 0 Volume: 0 Issue: 06 June 0 7

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