Inferring Latent Preferences from Network Data
|
|
- Earl Bell
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Inferring Latent Preferences from Network John S. Ahlquist 1 Arturas 2 1 UC San Diego GPS 2 NYU 14 November 2015
2 very early stages Methodological extend latent space models (Hoff et al 2002) to partial observability in binary, non-directed graphs Build on mixture model approach (Ward et al. 2013) Generate improved forecasting and case selection tools Substantive Need convincing model of treaty formation to evaluate effects (Rosendorff & Shin 2012) Existing empirical models of BIT formation fail to account for network dependencies Observed treaty network and preferences for BITs may evolve dynamically and endogenously Identify treaties likely to be breached or to have trouble in ratification
3 Partial observability zij : i s net (unobserved) payoff for signing a BIT with j BIT ij observed iff zij > 0 z ji > 0 Z* ij > 0 Z* ji < 0 Z* ij > 0 Z* ji > 0 no BIT observed Observed BIT Z* ji no BIT observed Z* ji < 0 Z* ij < 0 no BIT observed Z* ji < 0 Z* ij > 0 Z* ij
4 Observed and latent networks nondirectional observed network and directional latent relations Observed network G Associated latent networks G 1, G 2, G 3 C C A B A B C C A B A B
5 Random utility & latent variables z ij = systematic random {}}{{}}{ µ ij + ɛ ij ɛ ij = a i + b j }{{} + u iv j }{{} 2nd order dependence 3rd order dependence µ ij = β (s) x (s) i µ ji = β (s) x (s) y ij = y ij = y ji = yij yji j + β (r) x (r) j + β (r) x (r) i { 1 if zij 0, 0 otherwise + β (d) x (d) ij + β (d) x (d) ji
6 Model assumptions & structure Bayesian model, diffuse priors on hyperparameters, MCMC estimation ( z ij zji ( ai b i ) ( [ µij + a N i + b j 1 ρ 2, µ ji + a j + b i ρ 1 ) ( [ 0 σ N 2 0, 2 a σ ab σ ab σb 2 ]) ( u + i v j u j v i ), (1) ]), (2) u i N K (0, σ 2 ui ), (3) v i N K (0, σ 2 v I ). (4)
7 BIT network BIT signing data from UNCTAD BITs assumed to remain in place permanently Estimated independently for each year Covariates: exports, imports, distance, GDP, population, UDS One-dimensional latent space assumed. Missing covariate data imputed as part of MCMC
8 Convergence Convergence problems in sparse networks bd.1 bd , density = 0.03 bs3 bs bd.1 bd , density = 0.15 Intercept bd br2 br1 bs3 bs Intercept bd br2 bs1 br Time bs Time Time Time
9 Regression weights over time gdp.r exports out[, 2] out[, 2] : :2014 uds.r proximity out[, 2] out[, 2] : :2014
10 Latent preferences and BITs Germany Probability DEU is demanded as treaty partner DEU 2000 PRT ISR COD CUB CMR ARM CHN ARG BGD BGR CPV BRA HRV CHL BOL DZA CZE AZE BLR ALB BIH BEN ECU COG GHA GEO HUN EGY KAZ EST IND BRB SLV IDN CIV PRK KOR THA VNM LBR LAO MDG MNG VEN KWT UGA MEX OMN ZWE MDA TCD CRI CYP AGO BFA GAB KGZ MKD MAR URY ROU MYS UKR PER SVN UZB TUR RUS KEN JAM HND JOR LBN MLT LTU NGA SEN TUN PRY POL SVK TZA PHL PAN ZAF LKA PAK NIC YEM ARE LVA MLI BDI RWA ZMB SGP GIN GRC TJK TGO TKM MRT ESP NAM MOZ GNB AUT KHMMUS ETH NER IRN SDN STP BWA PNG FRA CAF GMB GUY SLE LSO NPL TTO REU DMA LCA QAT ATG SYR HTI DOM SOM GTM COL PSE FIN SAU SWZ VCT GNQ ERI LBY AUS DNK ISL BLZ GRD BHR TON CHE NLD BRN ITA CAN NOR GBR LIE SWE SYC IRL SMR DJI MCO SURMWI AND IRQ AFG MDV BHS KNA NZL COM MMR NRU BTN USA MHL PLW FSM WSM KIR TWN VUT JPN SLB FJI DEU Probability DEU is demanded as treaty partner FRA ESP AND USA LIE MCO BTN MDV KNA SWE NRU FSM PLW WSM SLB KIR TUV FJI NZL AUS DEU BRN AUT FIN JPN DEU 2010 GRC AFG GRD IRQ ATG DMA HTI NPLKGZ COD BHR IRN COG GEO TCD AZE OMN CMR BEN ARM BGD CHN ARG BGR EGY HRV BRA DZA BOL CHL CZE ETH BLR EST ALB CIV BIH GUY KOR KWT HUN JOR KEN KAZ LBN IND LVA LSO MUS MDA MNG MAR MOZ LTU CAF BDI MDG MEX PAK PSE LCA SLE RWA TKM SYR TJK TTO SDN ARE YEM ROU UKR RUS SEN TUN TUR URY PER SVN UZB POL SVK GAB BRB JAM IDN LBR MYS PHL ZAF LKA TGO VNM TZA PAN NIC SOM MKD GHA NER ZWE VEN PNG MRT UGA CUB LAO MLT TLS AGO NGA ZMB GTM ECU PRY QAT LBY BFA GNQ BWA NAM SAU CRI ISR SLV TON HND CPV KHM GIN DJI VUT SGP THA BHS DOM MNE CYP COL GMB MLI SWZ ITA STP BLZ PRK REU CHE COM PRT ERI MWI NLD SUR GBR IRL VCT ISL DNK CAN NOR GNB SYC SMR MMR TWN MHL Probability DEU demands treaty from the other Probability DEU demands treaty from the other
11 Latent preferences and BITs Brazil Probability BRA is demanded as treaty partner BRA 2000 CUB EGY CHN PRT DZA TUN MAR FIN MYS JAM ROU AUT SUR IDN KOR PER YEM SDN VEN QAT ECU SEN TUR MLI NOR LBY GIN GHA ZAF PRY SYR ZWE CZE AUS GRC JOR CPV BOL GMB MRT LBN POL OMN PAK BGR BHR NER TCD CIV BRB HRV SLV ETH COL BFA KWT MOZ GUY PRK IRN TGO GAB BIH HUN ARE IND MLT TTOMUS RUS AGO MKD BLR PAN CRI BWA ALB DOM CMR GRD NAMTHASVK UKR ZMB ERIJPN GTM ISR BHS COG COM DMA BGD CAF ATG DJI GNB IRQ NGA HTI HND MDG MCO KHM MDV NRU FSM AND BRN GNQ AFG BRA KEN BEN BTN LSO MWI LAO LBR BDI KIR LIE FJI BLZ ARM KGZ AZE GEO IRL EST COD KAZ MHL MMR NPL MNG NZL KNA NIC PNG PLW RWA PSE LCA VCT STP TKM UZBVNM UGA SVN WSM SOM LKA SMR SWZ SLB SLE SAU PHLSGP TJK TON VUT TZA SYCISL MDA LTUMEX CYP LVA CHE DEU ITA NLD GBR FRA ARG SWE DNK REU CHL USA ESP CAN URY TWN Probability BRA is demanded as treaty partner BRA 2010 GIN USA BFA MLI MUS BEN COM MRT TCD PRT CUB GHA DNK CHN GMB BDI BRB CAN EGY MAR GNB KNA CMR QAT SUR BWA TUN ZAF GBR DEU CHE REU ITA NLD FRA SWE FIN ESP CHL JAM DZA ARG KOR AUT LBY GUY ZWE VEN BHS IRN CPV NOR NER PER PRY DMA ERI LBNSEN MYS ECU LCA ATG GAB JPN KEN TGO UGA AND COL ROU MCO CIV AUS COG SMR HTI LIE CRI CAF GRD AGO IDN KWT STP BOL CZE GNQ ISL DOM NPL IRQ CYP BRN GRC IND SLV KIRETH PRK NGA SYR ZMB MDG RWA SWZ MWI TZA VCTSDN BGR MDV AFG BTN FJI BGD BHR BLZ HRV NRU FSM BRA LSO LBR LAO KHM DJI IRL COD MLT HND MHL MOZ NAM MMR OMNZL PAK RUS TWN WSM SOM PSE SLE YEM TUR URY PNG PLW SYC SGP TON TUV VUT SLB TLS LKA TKM PHLARE MNG TJKSAU THAKGZ JOR BIH ALB ARM TTO MKD VNMNE KAZ NICUZB BLR SVKSVN AZE GTM ESTGEO HUN MDA PAN UKR MEX POL ISRLVA LTU Probability BRA demands treaty from the other Probability BRA demands treaty from the other
12 Latent preferences and BITs China Probability CHN is demanded as treaty partner CHN CHN 2000 PRK BGD HUN MYS EGY KOR DEU POL CZE PAK BGR FRA PHL IND IDN KWT MNG ITA PRT OMN DNK REU AUS DZA FIN QAT TUN ROU VNM CHE MAR LKA TUR RUS THA YEM LAO NLD SWE HRV GBR UKR UZB AUT CUB ARG SVK ZWEARE KAZ ZAF SGP JOR ALB IRN LTU SDN LBN TJK SYR ESP KGZ ISR CHL LVA BIH KHM BLR MKD GRC SVN TKM ETH PER MLT BHR JPN MUS BRN USA GEO ARM PNG MDA TCD NOR AZE JAM GHASEN MOZ MLI LBY TWN EST CIV CAN NER CPVCMR GAB UGA VEN NPL GIN ZMB MRT ERI TZA TGO BFA BOL MEX SOM MDG AGO CYP NGA PRY KEN DJI ECU SLV NAM BWA COD PSE IRQ MMRSAU URY NZL GMB AFG COG CAF RWA BTN BRA MDV BRB PLW TON STP NIC SWZ SUR COMBDI CRI BEN NRU FSM PAN VUT GNB ISL MWI GTM HND GUY KIR LSO LBRCOL SMR TTO WSM SLB DOMMHL SLE HTI SYC MCO IRL LIE FJI GNQ DMA GRD AND BHS VCT ATG LCA BLZ KNA Probability CHN is demanded as treaty partner MDV AND LIE MCO GRDSLB DMA LCA ATG BTN FSM NRU LSO BDI PLW PSE SOM SLE HTI WSM TUV FJI KIR LBR KNA BHS CHN TGO TON CAF CHN 2010 RWA COM BEN TLSIRQBFA CIV NER BRB GUY STP GNB IRL SUR TCD CMRAFG NPL COG BRN BHR DZA BGD ARM BGR EGY ETH BLR AZE AUT REU KHM FRA DEU HRV CZE GIN KEN USA SDN MUS MOZ MAR SYR YEM TUNTUR OMN LBN IRN IDN IND GHA GRC JPN JOR MNG KWT KGZ MYS KOR LAO HUN PRK PAK MRT MDG PNG ZAF ARE QAT ROU RUS FIN KAZ PHL SEN ESP LKA CHE SGP SVK POL TJK TZA TKM GBR VNM UKR UZB THA ZWELTU ITA MLI UGA LBY SWE LVA CUB ALB BWA BIH COD GEO MDA NLD VUT GAB JAM ARG ZMB AGO AUS SVN MEX ISR DJI PRT MKD CYP ERI PER NGA DNK CHL GMB EST GNQ MLT TTO SAU CAN NAM BRA SWZ VEN CPV BOL NZL ECU URY NOR PAN SLV MWI MMR CRI PRY MNE NIC SYC GTM ISL HND DOM COL SMR BLZ MHL TWN VCT Probability CHN demands treaty from the other Probability CHN demands treaty from the other
13 Examining the predicted network 2014 subset HND USA JPN RUS MAR TUR PER NLD CHN ZAF MEX IND MYS GHA DEU NGA NZL BWA
14 suggest benefits in learning about latent preferences Even a poorly fitting network model able to recover interesting changes Still to do: gather more covariates (US interest rate, transparency) out of sample forecasting comparison dynamic estimation benchmarking against existing models
A re examination of the Columbian exchange: Agriculture and Economic Development in the Long Run
Are examinationofthecolumbianexchange: AgricultureandEconomicDevelopmentintheLongRun AlfonsoDíezMinguela MªDoloresAñónHigón UniversitatdeValéncia UniversitatdeValéncia May2012 [PRELIMINARYRESEARCH,PLEASEDONOTCITE]
More informationAgriculture, Transportation and the Timing of Urbanization
Agriculture, Transportation and the Timing of Urbanization Global Analysis at the Grid Cell Level Mesbah Motamed Raymond Florax William Masters Department of Agricultural Economics Purdue University SHaPE
More informationWP/18/117 Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth
WP/18/117 Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth By Reda Cherif, Fuad Hasanov, and Lichen Wang 2 2018 International Monetary Fund WP/18/117 IMF Working Paper Institute for
More informationEconomic Growth: Lecture 1, Questions and Evidence
14.452 Economic Growth: Lecture 1, Questions and Evidence Daron Acemoglu MIT October 23, 2018 Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Economic Growth Lecture 1 October 23, 2018 1 / 38 Cross-Country Income Differences Cross-Country
More informationIDENTIFYING MULTILATERAL DEPENDENCIES IN THE WORLD TRADE NETWORK
IDENTIFYING MULTILATERAL DEPENDENCIES IN THE WORLD TRADE NETWORK PETER R. HERMAN Abstract. When studying the formation of trade between two countries, traditional modeling has described this decision as
More informationLecture 10 Optimal Growth Endogenous Growth. Noah Williams
Lecture 10 Optimal Growth Endogenous Growth Noah Williams University of Wisconsin - Madison Economics 702 Spring 2018 Optimal Growth Path Recall we assume exogenous growth in population and productivity:
More informationFor Adam Smith, the secret to the wealth of nations was related
The building blocks of economic complexity César A. Hidalgo 1 and Ricardo Hausmann a Center for International Development and Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 Edited by Partha
More informationLecture Note 13 The Gains from International Trade: Empirical Evidence Using the Method of Instrumental Variables
Lecture Note 13 The Gains from International Trade: Empirical Evidence Using the Method of Instrumental Variables David Autor, MIT and NBER 14.03/14.003 Microeconomic Theory and Public Policy, Fall 2016
More informationECON 581. The Solow Growth Model, Continued. Instructor: Dmytro Hryshko
ECON 581. The Solow Growth Model, Continued Instructor: Dmytro Hryshko 1 / 38 The Solow model in continuous time Consider the following (difference) equation x(t + 1) x(t) = g(x(t)), where g( ) is some
More informationLecture 9 Endogenous Growth Consumption and Savings. Noah Williams
Lecture 9 Endogenous Growth Consumption and Savings Noah Williams University of Wisconsin - Madison Economics 702/312 Optimal Balanced Growth Therefore we have capital per unit of effective labor in the
More informationLandlocked or Policy Locked?
Landlocked or Policy Locked? How Services Trade Protection Deepens Economic Isolation Ingo Borchert University of Sussex Based on research with Batshur Gootiiz, Arti Grover and Aaditya Mattoo FERDI ITC
More informationUniversity of Groningen. Corruption and governance around the world Seldadyo, H.
University of Groningen Corruption and governance around the world Seldadyo, H. IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite from it. Please
More informationGrowth and Comparative Development - An Overview
Growth and Comparative Development - An Overview Department of Economics Brown University August 16, 2013 Evidence Fundamental Puzzles Regional Variations in Income Per Capita: 2000 Evidence Fundamental
More informationThe Diffusion of Development: Along Genetic or Geographic Lines?
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive The Diffusion of Development: Along Genetic or Geographic Lines? Douglas L. Campbell and Ju Hyun Pyun August 2014 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57933/ MPRA
More informationSocial and Economic Rights Fulfillment Index SERF Index and Substantive Rights Indices for 2015 (2017 update) Index for High Income OECD Countries
Social and Economic Rights Fulfillment and Substantive Rights Indices for (2017 update) for Countries Food Work Iceland ISL 1 1 93.18 42,325 83.01 99.91 98.48 91.34 Finland FIN 1 1 92.90 38,941 91.23 97.88
More informationINSTITUTIONS AND THE LONG-RUN IMPACT OF EARLY DEVELOPMENT
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS ISSN 1441-5429 DISCUSSION PAPER 49/12 INSTITUTIONS AND THE LONG-RUN IMPACT OF EARLY DEVELOPMENT James B. Ang * Abstract We study the role of institutional development as a causal
More informationSUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL FOR:
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL FOR: THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF ECONOMIC COMPLEXITY Cesar A. Hidalgo, Ricardo Hausmann Center for International Development and Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard University TABLE OF CONTENTS
More informationGrowth and Comparative Development: An Overview
Growth and Comparative Development: An Overview Oded Galor Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development 1 / 62 Introduction Comparative Development Income per Capita across the Globe in 2010 0-1000 1000-3000
More informationCompetition, Innovation and Growth with Limited Commitment
Competition, Innovation and Growth with Limited Commitment Ramon Marimon Universitat Pompeu Fabra, CREi and CREA Vincenzo Quadrini University of Southern California December 22, 2005 Abstract We study
More informationeconstor Make Your Publications Visible.
econstor Make Your Publications Visible. A Service of Wirtschaft Centre zbwleibniz-informationszentrum Economics Felbermayr, Gabriel J.; Gröschl, Jasmin Working Paper Natural disasters and the effect of
More information!" #$$% & ' ' () ) * ) )) ' + ( ) + ) +( ), - ). & " '" ) / ) ' ' (' + 0 ) ' " ' ) () ( ( ' ) ' 1)
!" #$$% & ' ' () ) * ) )) ' + ( ) + ) +( ), - ). & " '" ) () -)( / ) ' ' (' + 0 ) ' " ' ) () ( ( ' ) ' 1) )) ) 2') 3 45$" 467" 8" 4 %" 96$ & ' 4 )" 3)" ::" ( & ) ;: < ( ) ) =)+ ( " " " $8> " ') +? @ ::
More informationInternational Investment Positions and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Dynamic Panel Analysis
International Investment Positions and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Michael Binder 1 Christian J. Offermanns 2 1 Frankfurt and Center for Financial Studies 2 Frankfurt Motivation Empirical
More informationPTV Africa City Map (Standardmap)
PTV Africa City Map 2018.2 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_Africa_City_Map_2018.2 Data provider(s) Technology
More informationENDOGENOUS GROWTH. Carl-Johan Dalgaard Department of Economics University of Copenhagen
ENDOGENOUS GROWTH Carl-Johan Dalgaard Department of Economics University of Copenhagen MOTIVATION AND SETTING THE SCENE How to sustain growth? Under standard assumptions (e.g., diminishing returns and
More informationPTV Africa City Map 2017 (Standardmap)
PTV Africa City Map 2017 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_Africa_City_Map_2017 Data provider(s) Technology
More informationISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY.
ISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY. INSULARITY, CONNECTEDNESS, TRADE COSTS AND TRADE Luca De Benedictis Anna Maria Pinna August 20, 2014 Abstract In this paper we explore the geographical dimension of insularity,
More informationGrowth and Comparative Development
Growth and Comparative Development Oded Galor AEA Continuing Education Program Lecture I AEA 2014 Oded Galor Growth and Comparative Development Lecture I AEA 2014 1 / 61 Introduction Comparative Development
More informationISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY.
ISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY. INSULARITY, CONNECTEDNESS, TRADE COSTS AND TRADE Luca De Benedictis Anna Maria Pinna March 15, 2015 Abstract In this paper we explore the geographical dimension of insularity,
More informationVideo Pandemics: Worldwide Viral Spreading of Psy s Gangnam Style Video
Video Pandemics: Worldwide Viral Spreading of Psy s Gangnam Style Video Zsófia Kallus 1,2, Dániel Kondor 1,3, József Stéger 1, István Csabai 1, Eszter Bokányi 1, and Gábor Vattay 1 ( ) 1 Department of
More informationRoots of Autocracy. January 26, 2017
Roots of Autocracy Oded Galor Marc Klemp January 26, 2017 Abstract This research explores the origins of the variation in the prevalence and nature of political institutions across the globe. It advances
More informationTransparency in Non-Tariff Measures : An International Comparison
fondation pour les études et recherches sur le développement international Working Paper 182 Development Policies December 2016 Transparency in Non-Tariff Measures : An International Comparison Lili Yan
More informationResearch Article Diagnosing and Predicting the Earth s Health via Ecological Network Analysis
Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society Volume 2013, Article ID 741318, 10 pages http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/741318 Research Article Diagnosing and Predicting the Earth s Health via Ecological Network
More informationDany Bahar. Ricardo Hausmann. Cesar A. Hidalgo. Harvard Kennedy School. Harvard Kennedy School MIT. August 2013 RWP
Neighbors and the Evolution of the Comparative Advantage of Nations: Evidence of International Knowledge Diffusion? Faculty Research Working Paper Series Dany Bahar Harvard Kennedy School Ricardo Hausmann
More informationMean and covariance models for relational arrays
Mean and covariance models for relational arrays Peter Hoff Statistics, Biostatistics and the CSSS University of Washington Outline Introduction and examples Models for multiway mean structure Models for
More informationISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY.
ISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY. INSULARITY, CONNECTEDNESS, TRADE COSTS AND TRADE Luca De Benedictis Anna Maria Pinna June 15, 2015 Abstract In this paper we explore the geographical dimension of insularity,
More informationChapter 8.F Representative Table and Composite Regions
Chapter 8.F Representative Table and Composite Regions Badri Narayanan G. This chapter describes three sets of regional groupings that are used in the construction of the GTAP Data Base, namely: the representative
More informationPTV World Map 2014 (Standardmap)
PTV World Map 2014 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_World_Map_2014 DESK 2014 (=20er Stand) Data provider(s)
More informationPTV World Map 2017 (Standardmap)
PTV World Map 2017 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_World_Map_2017 DESK 2017 (=23er Stand) Data provider(s)
More informationQuality, Variable Markups, and Welfare: A Quantitative General Equilibrium Analysis of Export Prices
Quality, Variable Markups, and Welfare: A Quantitative General Equilibrium Analysis of Export Prices Haichao Fan Fudan Yao Amber Li HKUST Stephen R. Yeaple PSU, NBER and CESifo Sichuang Xu HKUST This version:
More informationworking papers series ciencias sociales Ruggedness: The blessing of bad geography in Africa in Economics and Social Sciences 2007/09
ciencias sociales in Economics and Social Sciences 2007/09 Ruggedness: The blessing of bad geography in Africa by Nathan Nunn and Diego Puga March 2007 Ctra. Colmenar Viejo km. 14, 28049 Madrid, Spain
More informationChapter 14 Representative Table and Composite Regions
Chapter 14 Representative Table and Composite Regions Betina V. Dimaranan This chapter describes three sets of regional groupings that are used in the construction of the GTAP Data Base, namely: the representative
More informationThe Out of Africa Hypothesis of Comparative Development Reflected by Nighttime Light Intensity
The Out of Africa Hypothesis of Comparative Development Reflected by Nighttime Light Intensity Quamrul Ashraf Oded Galor Marc Klemp April 26, 2014 Abstract This research establishes that migratory distance
More informationPolitical Economy of Institutions and Development. Lecture 7: The Role of the State and Different Political Regimes
14.773 Political Economy of Institutions and Development. Lecture 7: The Role of the State and Different Political Regimes Daron Acemoglu MIT February 28, 2013. Daron Acemoglu (MIT) Political Economy Lecture
More informationCurse or Blessing? Natural Resources and Human Development
Curse or Blessing? Natural Resources and Human Development José Pineda and Francisco Rodríguez 1 Human Development Report Office Abstract This paper argues against a natural resource curse for human development.
More informationNBER WORKING PAPER SERIES RUGGEDNESS: THE BLESSING OF BAD GEOGRAPHY IN AFRICA. Nathan Nunn Diego Puga
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES RUGGEDNESS: THE BLESSING OF BAD GEOGRAPHY IN AFRICA Nathan Nunn Diego Puga Working Paper 14918 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14918 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts
More informationEXPLORING THE NUMBER OF FIRST-ORDER POLITICAL SUBDIVISIONS ACROSS COUNTRIES: SOME STYLIZED FACTS*
JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, VOL. 49, NO. 2, 2009, pp. 243 261 EXPLORING THE NUMBER OF FIRST-ORDER POLITICAL SUBDIVISIONS ACROSS COUNTRIES: SOME STYLIZED FACTS* Maximilian Auffhammer Department of Agricultural
More informationISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY.
ISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY. INSULARITY, CONNECTEDNESS, HISTORY AND TRADE COSTS Luca De Benedictis Anna Maria Pinna February 15, 2018 Abstract In this paper we explore how geography can be changed by history,
More informationLandlocked or Policy Locked?
Landlocked or Policy Locked? How Services Trade Protection Deepens Economic Isolation Ingo Borchert joint work with Batshur Gootiiz, Arti Grover and Aaditya Mattoo Development Research Group The World
More informationLatent Factor Models for Relational Data
Latent Factor Models for Relational Data Peter Hoff Statistics, Biostatistics and Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences University of Washington Outline Part 1: Multiplicative factor models for
More informationISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY.
ISLANDS AS BAD GEOGRAPHY. INSULARITY, CONNECTEDNESS, HISTORY AND TRADE COSTS Luca De Benedictis Anna Maria Pinna October 27, 2016 Abstract In this paper we explore how geography can be changed by history.
More informationExternal Economies of Scale and Industrial Policy: A View from Trade
External Economies of Scale and Industrial Policy: A View from Trade Dominick Bartelme (Michigan) Arnaud Costinot (MIT) Dave Donaldson (MIT) Andrés Rodríguez-Clare (Berkeley) External Economies of Scale
More informationFIRST-TIME COLLEGE OTHER TOTAL FIRST GRAND GEOGRAPHIC ORIGIN UNDERGRADUATES UNDERGRADUATES GRADUATES PROFESSIONAL TOTAL
Report ID: USSR8071-IPED Page No. 1 Jurisdiction: ON-CAMPUS MISSOURI (BY COUNTY) 001 ADAIR 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 7 002 ANDREW 0 0 10 1 10 1 0 4 4 0 19 003 ATCHISON 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 4 004 AUDRAIN 0 0 3
More informationA. Cuñat 1 R. Zymek 2
1 2 1 University of Vienna and CESifo, alejandro.cunat@univie.ac.at 2 University of Edinburgh and CESifo, robert.zymek@ed.ac.uk and Outline accounting: quantitative assessment of the contribution of measurable
More informationConsumption-led Growth
1 / 31 Consumption-led Growth Markus Brunnermeier markus@princeton.edu Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas pog@berkeley.edu Oleg Itskhoki itskhoki@princeton.edu University of Helsinki Helsinki, November 2018 Introduction
More informationValue added trade: A tale of two concepts
Value added trade: Robert Stehrer The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) Version: 2012-12-09 December 10-11, 2012 - CompNet workshop ECB Frankfurt, Germany. Overview Two concepts
More informationPTV World City Map Premium T (Standardmap)
PTV World City Map Premium 2018.2T (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV World City Map Premium 2018.2T Data
More informationPTV World City Map Premium T (Standardmap)
PTV World City Map Premium 2019.1T (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV World City Map Premium 2019.1T Data
More informationEvolution Strategies for Optimizing Rectangular Cartograms
Evolution Strategies for Optimizing Rectangular Cartograms Kevin Buchin 1, Bettina Speckmann 1, and Sander Verdonschot 2 1 Department of Mathematics and Computing Science, TU Eindhoven, Eindhoven, The
More informationHierarchical models for multiway data
Hierarchical models for multiway data Peter Hoff Statistics, Biostatistics and the CSSS University of Washington Array-valued data y i,j,k = jth variable of ith subject under condition k (psychometrics).
More informationTRADE EFFECTS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD
TRADE EFFECTS OF THE NEW SILK ROAD Suprabha Baniya, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta 1 July 2018 Abstract This paper takes a first look at the trade effects of China s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), also referred
More informationAre All Fishers Equal? Bettina Aten and Alan Heston 1
Draft of 4/30/09 Are All Fishers Equal? Bettina Aten and Alan Heston 1 As against these assertions (of Fisher) I purpose to show: 2) That the circular test may also be fulfilled by index numbers constructed
More informationTHE EFFECTS OF CONSUMER DEMAND PARAMETERS ON TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS: AN APPLICATION TO THE WORLD BANK LINKAGE MODEL
Paper prepared for the 10 th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis hosted by Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA, June 7-9, 2007 THE EFFECTS OF CONSUMER DEMAND PARAMETERS ON TRADE POLICY
More informationWorld Bank Trustee for The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
World Bank Trustee for The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Introduction Trustee Report March 2011 1. The World Bank has been the Trustee for the Trust Fund (the Trust Fund ) for the
More informationGlobal Gazetteer. Product Guide
Global Gazetteer Product Guide Information in this document is subject to change without notice and does not represent a commitment on the part of the vendor or its representatives. No part of this document
More informationTrade Structure and Growth **
Trade Structure and Growth ** Daniel Lederman William F. Maloney Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank Washington, DC November 2003 Abstract: This paper examines
More informationProbability models for multiway data
Probability models for multiway data Peter Hoff Statistics, Biostatistics and the CSSS University of Washington Outline Introduction and examples Hierarchical models for multiway factors Deep interactions
More informationClimate Change and Food Security: Do Spatial Spillovers Matter?
Climate Change and Food Security: Do Spatial Spillovers Matter? Eric Nazindigouba Kere, Somlanare Romuald Kinda To cite this version: Eric Nazindigouba Kere, Somlanare Romuald Kinda. Climate Change and
More information2008 Men's 20 European Championship / Qualification
GROUP 1 ( 2 teams) matches won draw lost goal difference points 1. SRB Serbia 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 1. EST Estonia 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 1. NED Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 1. LAT Latvia 0 0 0 0 0 : 0 0 0 001
More informationVendor Payment Information for the University of Wyoming
Vdo Pm fomo fo h v of Womg 2011-2015 Ppd Ju 2016 Fo quo o: A Wm, PhD A V Pd d Sp A o h V Pd Dvo of Admo wm@uwodu O P J Shumw So Budg d Rpog A v of Womg Budg Off Dvo of Admo Shumw@uwodu 1 of 20 Th foowg
More informationColonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse. Jubril O. Animashaun 1 Department of Economics, University of Manchester, UK Abstract
Colonialism, Institutional Quality and the Resource Curse Jubril O. Animashaun 1 Department of Economics, University of Manchester, UK Abstract In many resource endowed countries, hydrocarbon endowment
More informationTwo Stage Modelling of Arms Trade: Applying Inferential Network Analysis on the Cold War Period
Two Stage Modelling of Arms Trade: Applying Inferential Network Analysis on the Cold War Period Eva Ziegler, Michael Lebacher ú, Paul W. Thurner, Göran Kauermann ú Draft version. Do not cite! We demonstrate
More informationLatent SVD Models for Relational Data
Latent SVD Models for Relational Data Peter Hoff Statistics, iostatistics and enter for Statistics and the Social Sciences University of Washington 1 Outline 1 Relational data 2 Exchangeability for arrays
More informationForecasting GDP growth from the outer space *
Forecasting GDP growth from the outer space * Jaqueson K. Galimberti ETH Zurich, Switzerland February 17, 2017 Abstract We evaluate the usefulness of satellite-based data on nighttime lights for the prediction
More informationGEOGRAPHY RULES TOO! ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INSTITUTIONS
GEOGRAPHY RULES TOO! ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE GEOGRAPHY OF INSTITUTIONS MAARTEN BOSKER HARRY GARRETSEN CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1769 CATEGORY 5: FISCAL POLICY, MACROECONOMICS AND GROWTH JULY 2006 An
More informationEvidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using Bayesian hierarchical models
Journal of Applied Statistics ISSN: 0266-4763 (Print) 1360-0532 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/cjas20 Evidence of bias in the Eurovision song contest: modelling the votes using
More informationOnline Appendix of the paper " How does sovereign bond market integration relate to fundamentals and CDS spreads?"
Online Appendix of the paper " How does sovereign bond market integration relate to fundamentals and CDS spreads?" Appendix A.1 - Summary statistics for sovereign bond returns Appendix A.2 - Correlations
More informationChapter 9.D Services Trade Data
Chapter 9.D Services Trade Data Arjan Lejour, Nico van Leeuwen and Robert A. McDougall 9.D.1 Introduction This paper has two aims. First of all, it presents CPB s contribution of bilateral services trade
More informationIdentifying regular blocks in valued networks: A heuristic applied to the St. Marks carbon flow data, and international trade in cereal products
Identifying regular blocks in valued networks: A heuristic applied to the St. Marks carbon flow data, and international trade in cereal products Nordlund, Carl Published in: Social Networks DOI: 10.1016/j.socnet.2005.12.001
More informationIs the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests for OECD and non-oecd countries
Is the consumption-income ratio stationary? Evidence from linear and nonlinear panel unit root tests for OECD and non-oecd countries Mario Cerrato Department of Economics University of Glasgow Christian
More informationSpatial Regression Models, Version 2 Chapter 3 Michael D. Ward and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Spatial Regression Models, Version 2 Chapter 3 Michael D. Ward and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch 2018-02-07 Introduction These are lecture/lab notes for Chapter 3 in Spatial Regression Models. You will find
More informationPTV South America City Map 2016 (Standardmap)
PTV South America City Map 2016 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_South_America_City_Map_2016 Data provider(s)
More information(1) (2) (3) Baseline (replicated)
Table A1: Regressions with nonlinear term and fixed effects (based on baseline specification of Table IV, column 4) (refers to footnotes 42 and 45 in the published paper) (1) (2) (3) Baseline (replicated)
More informationGeography and Economic Transition: Global Spatial Analysis at the Grid Cell Level. West Lafayette, IN Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Geography and Economic Transition: Global Spatial Analysis at the Grid Cell Level Mesbah Motamed 1, Raymond J.G.M. Florax 1,2, Will Masters 1 1 Purdue University West Lafayette, IN 47907 2 VU University
More informationTesting measurement invariance in a confirmatory factor analysis framework State of the art
Philipp E. Sischka University of Luxembourg Contact: Philipp Sischka, University of Luxembourg, INSIDE, Porte des Sciences, L-4366 Esch-sur-Alzette, philipp.sischka@uni.lu Testing measurement invariance
More informationPTV South America City Map 2018 (Standardmap)
(Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_South_America_City_Map_2018 Data provider(s) Technology Region Predecessor
More informationPTV South America City Map 2017 (Standardmap)
PTV South America City Map 2017 (Standardmap) Map version name (Core) Map version name (Logistic) Release date (Logistics) Map version name (Logistics) (new) PTV_South_America_City_Map_2017 Data provider(s)
More informationGLOBAL VS. GROUP-SPECIFIC BUSINESS CYCLES: THE IMPORTANCE OF DEFINING THE GROUPS
Number 334 January 2018 GLOBAL VS. GROUP-SPECIFIC BUSINESS CYCLES: THE IMPORTANCE OF DEFINING THE GROUPS Tino Berger and Marcus Wortmann ISSN: 1439-2305 Global vs. group-specific business cycles: The importance
More informationNew Indicators of Competition Law and Policy in 2013 for OECD and non- OECD Countries
Please cite this paper as: Alemani, E. et al. (2013), New Indicators of Competition Law and Policy in 2013 for OECD and non-oecd Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1104, OECD Publishing,
More informationEuropean Common database on Nationally Designated. Areas (National CDDA) 2013 Quality assessment
EUROPEAN TOPIC CENTRE ON BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY European Common database on Nationally Designated Areas (National CDDA) 2013 Quality assessment ETC/BD task team: Brian Mac Sharry (MNHN) ETC/BD task manager:
More informationClustering and blockmodeling
ISEG Technical University of Lisbon Introductory Workshop to Network Analysis of Texts Clustering and blockmodeling Vladimir Batagelj University of Ljubljana Lisbon, Portugal: 2nd to 5th February 2004
More informationGross trade, value-added trade and spatial autocorrelation: case of EU Member States
Paweł Folfas, Warsaw School of Economics Gross trade, value-added trade and spatial autocorrelation: case of EU Member States Introduction This paper is aimed at checking the existence of absolute income
More informationThe International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties
The International-Trade Network: Gravity Equations and Topological Properties Giorgio Fagiolo Sant Anna School of Advanced Studies Laboratory of Economics and Management Piazza Martiri della Libertà 33
More information23rd Women's World Championship 2017
As of SUN 17 DEC 2017 Group A Rank Team Pts MP W T L GF GA Diff. Team ROU FRA ESP SLO ANG PAR 1 ROU 8 5 4 0 1 123 112 11 ROU 17-26 19-17 31-28 27-24 29-17 2 FRA 7 5 3 1 1 135 98 37 FRA 26-17 25-25 23-24
More informationAppendix: Tables and Figures
Appendix: Tables and Figures Table A.1 Description of variables Variable Description Source Africans per European administrator Altitude Bureaucracy quality Colonial origin Colonial power Polity2 (nineteenth
More informationComparative advantage in routine production
Comparative advantage in routine production Liza Archanskaia, Jo Van Biesebroeck, Gerald Willmann KU Leuven Universität Bielefeld September 19, 2017 Motivation Our starting point We want to understand
More informationGrowth: Facts and Theories
Notes on Growth: Facts and Theories Intermediate Macroeconomics Spring 2006 Guido Menzio University of Pennsylvania Growth In the last part of the course we are going to study economic growth, i.e. the
More informationCalibrating the Modified An Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS) for Applied Economic Modeling
Calbratng the Modfed An Implctly Drectly Addtve Demand System (MAIDADS) for Appled Economc Modelng Ken Itakura Domnque van der Mensbrugghe January 31, 2011 Prelmnary draft, not for ctaton, comments welcome
More informationExploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network
Exploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network arxiv:1803.03536v1 [stat.ap] 8 Mar 2018 Michael Lebacher and Göran Kauermann March 12, 2018 Abstract In the paper we analyse dependence
More informationEast Asia Tariff Concession: A CGE analysis
East Asia Tariff Concession: A CGE analysis 19 June 2015 Kenichi Kawasaki, RIETI Badri Narayanan, Purdue University Houssein Guimbard, CEPII Arata Kuno, Kyorin University 29 October 2011 Overview East
More information26th Men's World Championship 2019
As of SUN 27 JAN 2019 Group A Rank Team Pts MP W T L GF GA Diff. Team FRA GER BRA RUS SRB COR 1 FRA 9 5 4 1 0 138 113 25 FRA 25-25 24-22 23-22 32-21 34-23 2 GER 8 5 3 2 0 142 110 32 GER 25-25 34-21 22-22
More information