FEMA Daily Operations Briefings

Transcription

1 FEMA Daily Operations Briefings September 16 22, 2018 This document is a compilation of FEMA Daily Operations Briefings from September 16 22, The FEMA Daily Operations Briefing provides an overview of the current emergency management situation nationwide and includes a summary of current significant events, weather activity, recent emergency declarations and projections for the coming week. Note that there is no briefing for September 13, This compilation was prepared by the Homeland Security Digital Library, Naval Postgraduate School, Center for Homeland Defense and Security.

2 Sunday, September 16, :30 a.m. EDT

3 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Tropical Depression Florence Tropical Activity: Atlantic Tropical Depression Florence; Tropical Storm Helene; Tropical Storm Joyce; Disturbance 1: Low (20%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: High (80%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclone are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Severe thunderstorms possible Carolinas Flash flooding possible Tennessee and Ohio valleys to Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Elevated/critical fire weather - CA, NV, UT, CO, WY, ID and MT Red Flag Warnings NV, UT, WY & ID Declaration Activity: None

4 Tropical Outlook Atlantic 1 10%

5 Tropical Storm Florence Tropical Depression Florence (Advisory #68 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located 20 miles SW of Columbia, SC Moving W at 8 mph A turn N and NE with an additional increase in forward speed on Monday On the forecast track, The center will move across the western Carolinas today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S. Monday and Tuesday Maximum sustained winds 35 mph Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days

6 Tropical Storm Helene & Joyce Tropical Storm Joyce (Advisory #15 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 580 miles WSW of the Azores Moving ENE at 17 mph Maximum sustained winds 40 mph Tropical Storm Helene (Advisory #36 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 270 miles N of the Central Azores Moving NE at 25 mph Maximum sustained winds 50 mph

7 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) 2-Day Broad area of low pressure associated with remnants of Isaac is located a couple hundred miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica Moving WNW toward northwestern Caribbean Sea Some slow development is possible during the next day or so Afterward, conditions are forecast to become less conducive and re-development seems unlikely Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 5-Day 1 20%

8 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 2:00 p.m. EDT) Centered several hundred miles SW of Mexico Moving NW at 10 mph Conditions appear conducive for gradual development Tropical depression likely to form by middle of next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (30%) Formation chance through 5 days: High (80%) 2-Day 5-Day 2 80%

9 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

10 NWS Weather Prediction Center Update #7, 8:30 am EDT, Sunday, Sep. 16, Day Rainfall Observed Through Sunday Morning, Sep. 16, 2018 VA VA 3-Day Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday, Sep. 19, 2018 Daily Flash Flood Risk Today Through 8 am Monday Tomorrow Through 8 am Tuesday SC NC NC WV NC VA 10 + SC SC Day 3 Through 8 am Wednesday ~24 inches at Newport, NC Southeast NC to northeast SC: Additional 3-6, isolated 8. Event accumulations: Central/western NC into far southwest VA: Additional Event accumulations West-central VA: Additional 2-4. isolated 6. Event accumulations 3-6.

11 National Weather Forecast Sun Mon Tue

12 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Sun Tue Sun Mon Tue

13 Tropical Storm Florence Lifeline Analysis Safety & Security US&R System actively engaged in rescue operations in support of state and local officials in coordination with Federal partners; completed 451 evacuations, 22 rescues, 4 assistances, 519 shelter in place checks, and 3 animal evacuations to date USCG S&R teams completed 55 rescues and 8 animal rescues 6,725 total National Guard personnel activated across VA, NC and SC Food, Water and Shelter Shelters: 225 (-42) open with 22,621 (-7,674) occupants across 3 states (NC, SC, & VA) (SLB as of 6:00 a.m. EDT) DLA delivering 4.86 million meals to Maxwell AFB from Sep and 2.86 million meals to Ft. Bragg from Sep Salvation Army reports 20 mobile feeding units staging in Charlotte with current meal capacity of 27,000 per day Health and Medical 7 confirmed fatalities in NC 1 confirmed fatalities in SC Energy Power Outages (SLB as of 6:00 a.m. EDT) o VA: 1k (-1) customers out o NC: 645k (-132k) customers out o SC: 60k (-105k) customers out Communications 81.6% of reported cell sites across NC are operational NC SC VA & WV Transportation South Carolina: o Myrtle Beach airport open; Charleston AFB/International, Florence Regional (expected to open September 16), and Moncks Corner Berkeley County airports closed (expected to open September 17); all other major airports open North Carolina: o Wilmington International Airport closed; 6 regional airports closed; all other major airports open o Road conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next few days; I-95 closed due to flooding near Fayetteville and Lumberton; I-40 closed in both directions north of Wilmington and near Burgaw Virginia Hazardous Waste NC reports sewage discharge, watermain breaks, and isolated system failures among water treatment facilities in the affected areas (Kenansville, Aqua, Wilmington, Princeton);

14 Tropical Storm Florence FEMA HQ NRCC at Level I, 24/7 with all LNOs and ESFs National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC Interagency VTCs daily at 12:30 p.m. EDT MERS assets deployed US&R: Red IST deployed to Raleigh, NC Region VIII IMAT deployed to Region IV HQ (GA) Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region I IMAT deployed to VA Region IV RRCC at Level I, 24/7 LNOs deployed to NC, SC & GA DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC Region III RRCC at Level II (day shift); RWC at Enhanced Watch (night shift) LNO deployed to WV EOC 2 IMATs (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Full Activation; state of emergency declared Maryland EOC at Monitoring; National Guard activated West Virginia EOC at Monitoring, State of Preparedness declared Delaware EOC at Monitoring Region II RWC at Steady State/Monitoring US&R Incident Coordination Center activated and supporting NJ US&R Task Force 1 in NC North Carolina (FEMA-3293-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC) EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 5 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 13 MRP Water Team South Carolina (FEMA-3400-EM-SC) EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Georgia: EOC at Partial Activation Tennessee:EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support) Kentucky: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support)

15 Severe Weather Outlook Sun Mon Tue

16 Fire Weather Outlook Sunday Monday

17 Long Range Outlooks Sept Day Temperature Probability 6-10 Day Precipitation Probability

18 Space Weather Space Weather Activity Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Radio Blackouts Past 24 Hours Minor None None None Next 24 Hours None None None None For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to: HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity

19 Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region III* State / Location PA PA Event Severe Weather July 21-27, 2018 Severe Weather August 10-15, 2018 IA / PA Number of Counties Requested Completed Start End IA /5 TBD PA /5 TBD IA /5 TBD PA /5 TBD * Region III PDAs are paused to support R-III operations for Hurricane Florence. The remaining counties will be rescheduled in the future once staffing is available.

20 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 8 IA PA HM Date Requested 0 0 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storm and Straightline Winds Oglala Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds X X X August 17, 2018 X X August 27, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018 SC DR (Expedited) Hurricane Florence X X X September 14, 2018

21 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability IM Workforce 11,847 1,728 15% 6,334 3,785 National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R ( 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC ( 3) East 1: East 2: Deployed Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 3 PMC / NMC: 1 Deployed: 9 Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 2 (+1) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 24 (-1) Assigned: 36 Available: 19 PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 17 Assigned: 33 Available: 12 (-1) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 19 (+1) Assigned: 14 Available: 3 (+1) PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 8 (-1) * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement DSA 4% (35/837); EHP 15% (57/389); ER 7% (3/43); FL 22% (34/157); FM 22% (57/265); HR 2% (5/235); IA 9% (243/2,797); IA 9% (243/2,797); IT 15% (91/629); LOG 3% (38/1,166); OPS 4% (10/260); PLAN 4% (13/340); SAF 17% (9/53); SEC 12% (13/108)

22 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level Activation Times Reason / Comments NWC Steady State NRCC Activated Blue Level I 24/7 Tropical Activity Atlantic HLT Activated RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) Activated Region III Region VI Enhanced Watch Returned to Steady State Night shift Hurricane Florence Tropical Activity (Invest 95L) RRCCs (10 Regions) Activated Region III Region IV Region VI Level II Level I Level III Day shift 24/7 Day shift Hurricane Florence Hurricane Florence Tropical Activity (Invest 95L)

23 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

24 Monday, September 17, :30 a.m. EDT

25 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Tropical Depression Florence Tropical Activity: Atlantic Tropical Depression Florence; Tropical Depression Joyce; Disturbance 1: Low (10%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: High (70%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclone are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Flash flooding possible Mid-Atlantic to Ohio Valley and Northeast Elevated fire weather - NV, UT, CO, & WY Red Flag Warnings WY Declaration Activity: Major Disaster Declaration approved South Carolina

26 NWS Weather Prediction Center Update #8, 8:30 am EDT, Monday, Sep. 17, Day Rainfall Observed Through Monday Morning, Sep. 17, 2018 VA 3-Day Rainfall Forecast Through Wednesday, Sep. 19, 2018 Daily Flash Flood Risk Today Through 8 am Tuesday Tomorrow Through 8 am Wed. SC NC PA WV VA NC SC NY 2-4 Southeast NC to northeast SC: Event accumulations: Far southwest VA to New England: Additional 1-4. Event accumulations Extratropical cyclone Florence moves off New England coast by Tuesday evening.

27 National Weather Forecast Mon Tue Wed

28 River Gauges NC/SC Rocky River Major Flooding Crest Today ~ 43.6 Feet LOWER NEUSE RIVER Major Flooding through the week Lumber River Major Flooding Long Crest ~ 25.5 into weekend NE CAPE FEAR RIVER: RECORD FLOODING (*Note River Gauge at Chinquapin is out of service) CAPE FEAR RIVER Fayetteville Crest ~ 62 FT Tuesday (Major) W.O. Huske Lock ~ Tuesday (Major) Elizabethtown Long crest around 37.5 through week (Mod) Lock 1 (Reach Flood Today, Major Late Tuesday, Long crest near Record through into weekend Waccamaw River: Major Flooding Approach Record Flooding this weekend, remain in flood 2-3 weeks or more

29 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Mon Wed Mon Tue Wed

30 Tropical Storm Florence Lifeline Analysis Safety & Security US&R System in coordination w/local & Federal partners; completed 668 evacuations, 154 rescues, 82 assistances, 1,043 shelter in place checks, and 220 animal evacuations to date USCG S&R teams completed 124 rescues and 99 animal rescues NC: 8 dams of interest being tracked due to media attention or size, location, and condition; 5 additional dams forecast to reach/exceed record levels; SC: Several dams reached critical levels of concern; state is actively monitoring No major issues NC SC VA & WV Food, Water and Shelter Shelters: 154 (-71) open with 15,049 (-7,572) occupants across 3 states (NC, SC, & VA) (ESF-6 as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) NC: 25 (-1) counties under mandatory, partial, or voluntary evacuation orders; all evacuations lifted in SC Health and Medical 12 confirmed fatalities in NC 5 confirmed fatalities in SC 98 ALS ambulances, 33 BLS ambulances, 3 Type 4 wheelchair buses, and 5 Type 5 wheelchair buses staged at Garner HHS pharmaceuticals being relocated; no anticipated interruptions Energy: Power Outages 527,844 (NC & SC) trending down (positive) (SLB as of 6:00 a.m. EDT) Communications: Majority of Cell Service operational additional in 2-3 days to bring up additional towers/service Transportation NC: Approximately 25% of truck-load shipments experiencing delays, primarily caused by flooding, road closures, and traffic congestion USCG will position Aids to Navigation Vessels to restore critical navigation aids - weather permitting Hazardous Waste NC: Multiple wastewater systems reported loss of integrity due to flooding and loss of primary power in 5 counties; road closures may impede access to some sites NC: EPA identified 1,995 Community Water Systems: 206 operational, 28 operating with restrictions, 7 non-operational, and 1,754 unknown; 28 active boil water advisories for affected service areas

31 Tropical Storm Florence - Response FEMA HQ NRCC at Level I, 24/7 with all LNOs and ESFs National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC Interagency VTCs daily at 12:30 p.m. EDT MERS assets deployed US&R: Red IST deployed to Raleigh, NC Region VIII IMAT redeploying to NC EOC today Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region I IMAT deployed to VA Region IV RRCC at Level I, 24/7 LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC Region III RRCC at Level II (day shift); RWC at Enhanced Watch (night shift) LNO deployed to WV EOC 2 IMATs (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Full Activation; state of emergency declared US&R: 2-Type 3; 3 MRP Water Teams Maryland EOC at Monitoring; National Guard activated West Virginia EOC at Monitoring, State of Preparedness declared Delaware EOC at Monitoring Pennsylvania EOC at Enhanced Watch North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC) EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 5 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 16 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC) EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support) Kentucky: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support)

32 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Tropical Depression Joyce (Advisory #19 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 285 miles SSW of the Azores Moving E at 17 mph Maximum sustained winds 35 mph Expected to become remnant low within next couple days No coastal watches or warnings in effect 2-Day Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Broad area of low pressure associated with remnants of Isaac is located just south of Jamaica Moving W to WNW across northwestern Caribbean Sea Any development should be slow to occur during next day or so By Wednesday, conditions are forecast to become less conducive for re-development to occur Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (10%) 1 20% 5-Day

33 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located a few hundred miles S of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Moving N at 10 mph Although conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system suggests that any development should be slow to occur Likely to become a tropical depression later this week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (30%) Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%) 2-Day 5-Day 1 70%

34 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

35 Fire Weather Outlook Monday Tuesday

36 Long Range Outlooks Sept Day Temperature Probability 6-10 Day Precipitation Probability

37 Space Weather Space Weather Activity Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Radio Blackouts Past 24 Hours None None None None Next 24 Hours None None None None For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to: HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity

38 Declaration Approved FEMA-4394-DR-SC Major Disaster Declaration was approved on September 16, 2018 for the State of South Carolina For Hurricane Florence beginning September 8, 2018 and continuing Provides: o Emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program for 8 counties o Hazard Mitigation for all counties and Indian Tribes in the State of South Carolina FCO is Elizabeth Turner PA

39 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 7 IA PA HM Date Requested 1 0 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storm and Straightline Winds Oglala Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds X X X August 17, 2018 X X August 27, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018 SC DR (Expedited) Hurricane Florence X X September 14, 2018 Declared September 16, 2018

40 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability IM Workforce 11,853 2,071 18% 6,406 3,376 National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R ( 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC ( 3) East 1: Composite: Deployed Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 2 PMC / NMC: 2 (+1) Deployed: 9 (-1) Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 2 PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 24 Assigned: 36 Available: 19 PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 17 Assigned: 33 Available: 13 (+1) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 18 (-1) Assigned: 14 Available: 3 PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 8 * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement DSA 11% (94/836); EHP 14% (56/389); ER 5% (2/43); FL 23% (36/157); FM 21% (55/266); HR 4% (10/235); IA 19% (525/2,804); IT 2% (14/629); LOG 6% (71/1,165); OPS 9% (23/260); PA 11% (195/1,818); PLAN 8% (27/340); SAF 11% (6/53); SEC 13% (14/108)

41 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level Activation Times Reason / Comments NWC Steady State NRCC Activated Blue Level I 24/7 Tropical Activity Atlantic HLT Activated RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) Activated Region III Enhanced Watch Night shift Hurricane Florence RRCCs (10 Regions) Activated Region III Region IV Level II Level I Day shift 24/7 Hurricane Florence Hurricane Florence

42 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

43 Tuesday, September 18, :30 a.m. EDT

44 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Remnants of Hurricane Florence Tropical Activity: Atlantic Remnants of Florence; Tropical Depression Joyce Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: Medium (40%); Disturbance 2: Low (20%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclone are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Heavy Rain / Flash Flooding possible Middle Mississippi Valley, Mid-Atlantic, & Northeast Elevated / Critical Fire Weather NV, UT, CO, & WY Red Flag Warnings UT & WY Declaration Activity: Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4393-EM-NC

45 Flooded Areas of NC/SC Tuesday / Wednesday Weather Outlook: Hot, humid with heat index near 100 Isolated thunderstorms Continued hot, humid Wednesday; no thunderstorms

46 National Weather Forecast Tue Wed Thu

47 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Tue Thu Tue Wed Thu

48 Tropical Cyclone Florence Lifelines Safety & Security NC: 700+ people evacuated to area shelters due to 2 overtopped dams in Scotland County SC: Confirmed dam breaches: Spring Lake in Darlington County, Chatham Lake in Chesterfield County, & Lake Darpo in Darlington County; assessments ongoing / coordinated reconnaissance for high-hazard dams Levee Breaches: NC: 5; SC: 3 Food, Water and Shelter Shelters: Validation of numbers expected this morning. NC: 23 (-80) Public Water Systems with Restrictions affecting 324,285 (-215,370) persons Health and Medical NC: 25 (+9) confirmed fatalities SC: 5 confirmed fatalities NC: 39 hospitals in the affected area; 1 (-1) closed, 5 operating on generator power, 2 (+1) sheltering in place, 4 operating emergency departments only, 31 (-2) open Energy: NC: Duke Energy reports over 1.2 million affected customers have power restored; up 200,000 since last report Restorations largely completed; CO-OPs releasing MA crews Fluctuations typical for large-scale restoration efforts & may affect customers/responders NC SC Transportation NC: Potentially Isolated Communities: Wilmington, Fort Bragg, and Fayetteville; Additional communities of concern: Jones County and Pender County Hazardous Waste NC: DEQ identified 1,338 of 1,995 (67%) of North Carolina Community Water Systems as fully operational SC: 583 community water systems, 163 public water systems,& 391 wastewater facilities in coastal SC; assessments to be conducted as situation permits Communications: Majority of Cell Service operational additional in 2-3 days to bring up additional towers/service

49 Potentially Isolated Communities US&R System in coordination w/local & Federal partners; completed 789 evacuations, 176 rescues, 145 assistances, 1,602 shelter in place checks, and 248 animal evacuations to date USCG S&R teams completed 425 rescues and 234 animal rescues NC: 700+ people evacuated to area shelters due to 2 overtopped dams in Scotland County SC: Confirmed dam breaches: Spring Lake in Darlington County, Chatham Lake in Chesterfield County, & Lake Darpo in Darlington County; assessments ongoing / coordinated reconnaissance for high-hazard dams

50 Tropical Cyclone Florence Response FEMA HQ NRCC at Level I, 24/7 with all LNOs and ESFs National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC Interagency VTCs daily at 12:30 p.m. EDT MERS assets deployed US&R: Red IST deployed to Raleigh, NC Region VIII IMAT deployed to NC EOC Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region I IMAT demobilizing from VA today Region IV RRCC at Level I, 24/7 LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC Region III RRCC returned to Normal Operations; RWC at Enhanced Watch (day shift) 2 IMATs (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2-Type 3; 3 MRP Water Teams Delaware: EOC at Monitoring Pennsylvania: EOC Activated North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 5 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 16 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support) Kentucky: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support)

51 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Tropical Depression Joyce (Advisory #23 as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) 355 miles S of the Azores Moving SSE at 6 mph; max sustained winds 35 mph Expected to become remnant low later today or tonight No coastal watches or warnings in effect 48 hour 5-Day

52 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located a few hundred miles SE of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Although conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system suggests that any development should be slow to occur Likely to become a tropical depression by Wednesday Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (40%) Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 800 hundred miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system over the next several days Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 1 50% 5-Day

53 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

54 Severe Weather Outlook Tue Wed Thu

55 Fire Weather Outlook Tuesday Wednesday

56 Hazards Outlook Sep 20-24

57 Space Weather Space Weather Activity Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Radio Blackouts Past 24 Hours None None None None Next 24 Hours None None None None For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to: HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity

58 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 7 IA PA HM Date Requested 0 0 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storm and Straightline Winds Oglala Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds X X X August 17, 2018 X X August 27, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018

59 Disaster Amendments Amendment Date Issued Action Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4393-EM-NC September 17, 2018 Added 10 counties for IA and debris removal and emergency protective measures (Categories A and B), including direct Federal assistance, under the Public Assistance program

60 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability IM Workforce 11,856 1,951 17% 6,496 3,409 National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R ( 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC ( 3) East 1: Composite: Deployed Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 2 PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 9 Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 4 (+2) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 22 (-2) Assigned: 36 Available: 19 PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 17 Assigned: 33 Available: 13 PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 18 Assigned: 14 Available: 2 (-1) PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 9 (+1) * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement DSA 10% (87/841); EHP 7% (28/390); ER 2% (1/43); FL 23% (36/157); FM 20% (54/265); HR 4% (11/235); IA 18% (517/2,807); IT 6% (39/629); LOG 7% (82/1,165); OPS 10% (27/259); PA 10% (183/1,811); PLAN 6% (22/339); SAF 9% (5/53); SEC 12% (13/109)

61 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level Activation Times Reason / Comments NWC Steady State NRCC Activated Blue Level I 24/7 Tropical Activity Atlantic HLT Activated RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) Activated Region III Enhanced Watch Dayshift only Hurricane Florence RRCCs (10 Regions) Activated Region IV Level I 24/7 Hurricane Florence

62 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

63 Wednesday, September 19, :30 a.m. EDT

64 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Remnants of Hurricane Florence Tropical Activity: Atlantic Disturbance 1: Low (20%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: Low (30%); Disturbance 2: Medium (40%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclone are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Heavy Rain possible Southwest, Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, & Great Lakes Elevated / Critical Fire Weather NV, UT, AZ, CO, ID, & WY Red Flag Warnings UT, WY, & CO Declaration Activity: FMAG Roosevelt Fire WY

65 Flood Update Current SERFC River Forecasts Includes Observed and 48-hour Forecast Rainfall River Points Cresting Goldsboro (Neuse) Fayetteville (Cape Fear) Cheraw (Pee Dee) Prolonged Major & RECORD Flooding Lower Neuse (Kinston) N. E. Cape Fear (Chinquapin & Burgaw) Lower Cape Fear (Lock1) Lumber ( I-95) Little Pee Dee Lower Pee Dee Lynches Waccamaw

66 National Weather Forecast Wed Thu Fri

67 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Wed Fri Wed Thu Fri

68 Severe Weather Outlook Wed Thu Fri

69 Fire Weather Outlook Wednesday Thursday

70 Hazards Outlook Sep 21-25

71 Tropical Cyclone Florence Lifelines Safety & Security: NC: National US&R System in coordination with Federal partners; completed 813 evacuations, 186 rescues, 97 assistances, 5,190 shelter in place checks, and 527 animal evacuations to date Food, Water and Shelter: NC: FEMA DSA to conduct registration intake in highly populated shelters; awaiting access into flooded areas NC: 17 (-1) counties under evacuation orders (6 mandatory, 11 voluntary) o 66 shelters open with a population of 8,920 evacuees SC: Municipal evacuations for small areas continue in response to local concerns o 10 shelters open with a population of 238 evacuees Health and Medical: NC: Nursing homes/long-term care facilities on generator power being contacted daily by HHS to survey for unmet needs Energy: NC: 220,970 total outages reported statewide; 30% decrease since last report; 20% (-1) of gas stations out-of-service due to lack of fuel and/or power; majority along coastal areas Communications: Cellular infrastructure steadily improving in impacted area, with sites able to switch from generator to commercial power Transportation: Supply chains beginning to reestablish deliveries to locations as businesses reopen; industry distributors, Federal partners, and states coordinating to ensure unity of effort NC SC Hazardous Waste NC: Continued high level of discussion, regarding flood waters that may be polluted with hog manure and toxic coal ash NC: Pet vaccines transported to Union City, NC being redirected due to flooding Multiple WWTPs across the state are experiencing storm related damages (inundation, pump failure, power outages, & inaccessibility) causing sewer discharge and overtopping of lagoons; the state is engaged with WWTPs on generator requirements and fuel delivery

72 Flood Overview

73 Tropical Cyclone Florence Response FEMA HQ NRCC transitioning to Level II Dayshifts; Enhanced Watch Nightshifts National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC MERS assets deployed US&R: Red IST deployed to Kinston, NC Region VIII IMAT deployed to NC EOC Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region III Returned to Normal Operations Monitoring 2 IMATs (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Monitoring US&R: 2-Type 3; 3 MRP Water Teams Region IV RRCC at Level I (24/7); RWC Enhanced Watch Nightshift LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 2 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 11 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee & Kentucky: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support)

74 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) 1,000 miles E of the Windward Islands Moving W to WNW at 10 to 15 mph Slight development is possible during the next day or two Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) A non-tropical low is forecast to form this weekend between Bermuda and the Azores Conditions are expected to be favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 5-Day 1 20%

75 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located a few hundred miles SE of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Although conditions appear conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system should limit the development Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (30%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (30%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 800 hundred miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%) Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%) % 30% 5-Day

76 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

77 Roosevelt Fire WY Fire Name (County) Roosevelt Fire (Sublette) FMAG # / Approved 5276-FM-WY September 18, 2018 Acres burned Percent Contained Current Situation Fire began September 15, 2018 and is burning on private and federal lands in and around Sublette County, WY (pop. 9k) Also threatening the Hoback Watershed Evacuations: Mandatory evacuations for 500 people Response WY EOC at Normal Operations FEMA Region VIII at Steady State, continues to monitor Evacuations (Residents) Structures Threatened Damaged Destroyed Fatalities / Injuries 20,000 0% Mandatory 250 homes / 0

78 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 5 IA PA HM Date Requested 0 2 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 Cheyenne River Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storm and Straightline Winds Oglala Sioux Tribe DR Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Straight-line Winds X X X August 17, 2018 September 18, 2018 X X August 27, 2018 September 18, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018

79 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability IM Workforce 11,881 1,994 17% 6,427 3,460 National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R ( 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC ( 3) East 1: Composite: Deployed Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 3 (+1) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 8 (-1) Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 4 PMC / NMC: 9 (+7) Deployed: 15 (-7) Assigned: 36 Available: 20 (+1) PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 16 (-1) Assigned: 33 Available: 13 PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 18 Assigned: 14 Available: 1 (-2) PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 10 (+2) * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement DSA 12% (97/841); EHP 11% (45/408); ER 5% (2/44); FL 22% (34/157); FM 19% (50/265); HM 22% (208/968); HR 5% (11/235); IA 18% (515/2,806); IT 5% (34/633); LOG 8% (94/1,165); OPS 11% (28/259); PA 10% (185/1,814); PLAN 7% (25/339); SAF 8% (4/53); SEC 9% (10/109)

80 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level Activation Times Reason / Comments NWC Steady State NRCC Activated Blue Level II Enhanced Watch Dayshift Night Shift Transitioning to Level II Sep 20 HLT Activated RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) Available RRCCs (10 Regions) Activated Region IV Level I 24/7 Tropical Cyclone Florence

81 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

82 Thursday, September 20, :30 a.m. EDT

83 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Remnants of Hurricane Florence Tropical Activity: Atlantic Disturbance 1: Low (20%); Disturbance 2: Low (near 0%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: Low (10%); Disturbance 2: Low (near0%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclone are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible Upper Midwest Heavy rain and flash flooding possible Southern Plains Elevated / Critical Fire Weather CA, UT, CO, ID, & WY Red Flag Warnings CA, UT, & WY Declaration Activity: None

84 Tropical Cyclone Florence Lifelines Safety & Security: NC: Dam breaches: 5 (+1) confirmed, 5 (+3) unconfirmed; Levee breach: 1 confirmed; Dam over-toppings: 4 confirmed; Dam facilities with varying degrees of protective measures: 20 (+1) SC: Dam breaches: 8 confirmed, 3 unconfirmed; Dam overtoppings: 6 confirmed, 4 unconfirmed; Dam facilities with varying degrees of protective measures: 6 (+2) Food, Water and Shelter: NC: FEMA DSA conducting registration intake in Wilmington & New Bern shelters Health and Medical: NC: 39 hospitals in the affected area; 2 closed, 4 operating emergency departments only, all other hospitals open Energy: NC: Fuel outages are concentrated in Wilmington (52% reporting no fuel) and Greenville/New Bern/ Washington area (38% reporting no fuel). Communications: Cellular infrastructure steadily improving in impacted area, with sites able to switch from generator to commercial power NC SC FEMA HQ NRCC at Level II Dayshifts; Enhanced Watch Nightshifts National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC MERS assets deployed US&R: Red IST deployed to Kinston, NC Region VIII IMAT deployed to NC EOC Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region IV RRCC at Level II with select ESFs (dayshift) RWC at Steady State LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC Transportation: Approximately 813 (-289) roads closed due to flooding; to include closures on I-95, I-40 and US 70; road conditions expected to deteriorate over the next few days Intermittent closures on I-95 across the Great Pee Dee River; continuing protective measures along US 501 and US 378 Hazardous Waste NC: 4 hog lagoons have failed, 9 have become inundated, and 13 have overtopped Department of Agriculture estimates 3 to 4 million birds and 5,500 hogs perished due to flooding North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 2 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 11 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee & Kentucky: EOC at Monitoring (EMAC support) Region III 2 IMATs (Type III) deployed to VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Monitoring

85 Flood Overview

86 River Flood Update Prolonged Major & RECORD Flooding Lower Neuse (Kinston) N. E. Cape Fear (Chinquapin & Burgaw) Lower Cape Fear (Lock1) Lumber ( I-95) Little Pee Dee Lower Pee Dee Lynches Waccamaw Cresting Rising Falling

87 National Weather Forecast Thu Fri Sat

88 Severe Weather Outlook Thu Fri Sat

89 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Thu Sat Thu Fri Sat

90 Fire Weather Outlook Thursday Friday

91 Hazards Outlook Sep 22-26

92 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) 850 miles E of the Windward Islands Some additional development is possible today before upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) A non-tropical low is forecast to develop by Friday between Bermuda and the Azores Conditions are expected to be favorable for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (40%) 2 40% 5-Day 1 20%

93 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) 1000 miles SW of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Development of this system will be slow before upper-level winds become unfavorable Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec Some slow development of this system is possible early next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (30%) 5-Day Remnants of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E (Advisory #4, as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) 55 miles E of Guaymas, Mexico Moving NNE at 9 mph Maximum Sustained Winds of 30 mph Dissipated over the State of Sonora; heavy rains and flash flooding possible 1 20% 2 30%

94 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

95 Wildfire Summary Fire Name (County) FMAG Number Acres Burned Percent Contained Evacuations Structures Fatalities / Threatened Damaged Destroyed Injuries Wyoming (1) Roosevelt Fire (Sublette) 5276-FM-WY 29,162 (+3,994) 0% Mandatory 250 homes / 0

96 Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region III State / Location PA PA Event Severe Weather July 21-27, 2018 Severe Weather August 10-15, 2018 IA / PA Number of Counties Requested Completed Start End IA /5 TBD PA /5 TBD IA /5 TBD PA /5 TBD

97 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability IM Workforce 11,886 2,014 17% 6,424 3,448 National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R ( 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC ( 3) East 1: Composite: Deployed Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 3 PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 7 Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 6 (+2) PMC / NMC: 8 (-1) Deployed: 14 (1) Assigned: 36 Available: 21 PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 15 Assigned: 33 Available: 13 PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 18 Assigned: 14 Available: 1 PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 10 * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement DSA 12% (97/836); EHP 7% (30/408); ER 5% (2/44); FL 24% (37/157); FM 19% (49/265); HM 22% (209/969); HR 5% (12/236); IA 19% (522/2,804); IT 7% (45/637); LOG 9% (100/1,163); OPS 12% (31/265); PA 10% (187/1,815); PLAN 8% (28/337); SAF 4% (2/53); SEC 7% (8/109)

98 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level Activation Times Reason / Comments NWC Steady State NRCC Activated Blue HLT Activated Level II Enhanced Watch Dayshift Night Shift RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) RRCCs (10 Regions) Available Activated Region IV Level II Dayshift Tropical Cyclone Florence

99 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

100 Friday, September 21, :30 a.m. EDT

101 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Hurricane Florence response Tropical Activity: Atlantic Disturbance 1: Medium (60%); Disturbance 2: Low (10%); Disturbance 3: Low (20%); Disturbance 4: High (70%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: Low (10%); Disturbance 2: Medium (40%) Central Pacific No new tropical cyclones are expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Flash flooding possible Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley Severe thunderstorms possible Ohio Valley to Great Lakes Elevated fire weather CA, OR, NV, & WY Red Flag Warnings - WY Declaration Activity: Emergency Declaration request Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-3385-EM-FL Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-3388-EM-STOF Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-3395-EM-FL Amendment No. 16 to FEMA-4337-DR-FL Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-4341-DR-STOF Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-4363-DR-IN Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4381-DR-MI Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4383-DR-WI Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-4382-DR-CA

102 Tropical Cyclone Florence Lifelines Safety & Security: NC: Sector NC and State of NC deployed air assets to evacuate approximately 200 survivors, due to White Oak Dike breach near Kelly (Cape Fear River), no deaths or serious injury reported Food, Water and Shelter: NC: FEMA DSA conducting registration intake in Wilmington & New Bern shelters Health and Medical: 40 Confirmed fatalities in NC & SC NC: 52 shelters open with a population of 5,222 evacuees Community Water Systems: 48 operating with restrictions (affecting 529,466), 9 non-operational (affecting 4,842) Energy: NC: 112,947 (2.3%) total outages reported statewide; largest concentration of customer outages in New Hanover County 16% of gas stations out-of-service due to lack of fuel and/or power; Fuel outages are concentrated in Wilmington Communications: 24% of broadband internet service out in impacted counties, largely attributed to lack of power, repopulation to area increasing reporting of outages, and debris removal Transportation: NC: Approximately 813 roads closed due to flooding; to include closures on I-95, I- 40 and US-70 SC: Monitoring US-17 and US-501 for potential flooding Hazardous Waste: NC: 6 (+1) hog lagoons have structural damage, 21 (+4) have become inundated, and 30 (+9) have overtopped; no unmet requirements at this time NC SC FEMA HQ NRCC at Level III (Day shift); Enhanced Watch (Night shift) National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC MERS assets deployed Region VIII IMAT deployed to NC EOC Region V IMAT deployed to FEMA HQ (DC) Region IV RRCC at Level II with select ESFs (Day shift) RWC at Steady State LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 2 Type 1; 4 Type 3; 11 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee & Kentucky: EOCs at Monitoring (EMAC support) Region III 2 IMATs (Type III) demobilizing from VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Monitoring

103 River Flood Update

104 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 600 miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands; moving W at mph Conducive for slow development; tropical depression could form early next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (20%) Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 600 miles E of Windward Islands; moving WNW at 10 mph Dry mid-level air and strong upper-level winds expected to hinder development Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (10%) Disturbance 3 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located just SE of Bermuda; moving W at mph Dry mid-level air and strong upper-level winds expected to inhibit significant development over next few days Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (20%) Disturbance 4 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Non-tropical low pressure system forecast to develop between Bermuda and Azores; meandering over central Atlantic Ocean Conditions conducive for system to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics Subtropical or tropical cyclone expected to form late this weekend or early next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%) 3 20% 2 10% 7 70% 5-Day 1 60%

105 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 1,100 miles WSW of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico Moving WNW at 10 mph Strong upper level winds should make development less likely Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (10%) 48 hour Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Area of low pressure expected to form in a couple of days well to the south of the southern coast of Mexico Moving nearly parallel and well offshore of southwestern coast of Mexico Some slow development is possible early next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (40%) 5-Day 1 10% 2 40%

106 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

107 National Weather Forecast Fri Sat Sun

108 Severe Weather Outlook Fri Sat Sun

109 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Fri Sun Fri Sat Sun

110 Fire Weather Outlook Thursday Friday

111 Hazards Outlook Sep 23-27

112 Space Weather Space Weather Activity Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Radio Blackouts Past 24 Hours None None None None Next 24 Hours None None None None For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to: HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity

113 Wildfire Summary Fire Name (County) FMAG Number Acres Burned Percent Contained Evacuations Structures Fatalities / Threatened Damaged Destroyed Injuries Wyoming (1) Roosevelt Fire (Sublette) 5276-FM-WY 31,681 (+2519) 0% Mandatory 472 (+222) (251 homes) 0 1 home (+1) 0 / 0

114 Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region State / Location Event IA / PA Number of Counties Requested Completed Start End III PA PA Severe Weather July 21-27, 2018 Severe Weather August 10-15, 2018 IA 12 6(+1) 9/5 TBD PA 14 (+1) 6 9/5 TBD IA 14 6(+2) 9/5 TBD PA 13 (-2) 4 (+2) 9/5 TBD V WI Flooding and Severe Weather August 17 September 14, 2018 IA /24 TBD PA /24 TBD

115 Declaration Request Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands The Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration on September 20, 2018 For Typhoon Mangkhut during the period of September 10-11, 2018 Requesting: o Individual Assistance for 3 islands o Public Assistance for 3 islands o Hazard Mitigation for the entire commonwealth IA/PA

116 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 6 IA PA HM Date Requested 0 0 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018 CNMI DR Typhoon Mangkhut X X X September 20, 2018

117 Disaster Amendments Amendment Date Issued Action Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-3385-EM-FL August 29, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-3388-EM-STOF August 29, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 16 to FEMA-4337-DR-FL August 29, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 4 to FEMA-4341-DR-STOF August 29, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-3395-EM-FL August 29, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 3 to FEMA-4363-DR-IN September 7, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4381-DR-MI September 7, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4383-DR-WI September 7, 2018 Appoints new FCO Amendment No. 2 to FEMA-4382-DR-CA September 14, 2018 Appoints new FCO

118 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability DSA 12% (103/836); EHP 8% (32/412); ER 2% (1/44); FL 22% (34/157); FM 18% (49/267); HM 22% (210/970); HR 7% IM Workforce 11,932 2,075 17% 6,395 3,462 (16/236); IA 18% (517/2,807); IT 9% (54/637); LOG 10% (112/1,163); OPS 14% (37/265); PA 11% (191/1,819); PLAN 10% (35/336); SAF 2% (1/53); SEC 6% (6/109) National East 1: Deployed IMATs* Composite: Deployed (1-2 Teams) West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Regional Available: 3 IMATs PMC / NMC: 3 (< 3 Teams) Deployed: 7 National Team A Deployed ISBs Team B Deployed (0 Teams) Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 US&R Available: 8 (+2) ( 33%) PMC / NMC: 11 (+3) Deployed: 9 (-5) Assigned: 36 MERS Available: 21 (33-65%) PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 15 Assigned: 33 FCO Available: 13 ( 1 Type I) PMC / NMC: 2 Deployed: 18 Assigned: 14 FDRC Available: 1 ( 3) PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 10 * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement

119 FEMA Readiness Activation Teams Status Activated Team Activation Level NWC Steady State Enhanced Watch NRCC Activated Blue HLT Activated Level III Enhanced Watch Activation Times Day shift (beginning Sep 24) Day shift Night shift Reason / Comments U.N. General Assembly Tropical Cyclone Florence RWC / MOCs (10 Regions) RRCCs (10 Regions) Available Activated Region IV Level II Day shift Tropical Cyclone Florence

120 FEMA s mission is helping people before, during, and after disasters.

121 Saturday, September 22, :30 a.m. EDT

122 Significant Activity Sep Significant Events: Hurricane Florence response Tropical Activity: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eleven; Disturbance 1: Medium (60%); Disturbance 2: Low (30%); Disturbance 3: High (70%) Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1: Medium (60%) Central Pacific Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during next 48 hours Western Pacific No activity affecting U.S. interests Significant Weather: Flash flooding possible Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys Critical and elevated fire weather CA, NV, UT, WY, ID & MT Red Flag Warnings NV, UT, ID, CO, WY & SD Declaration Activity: Major Disaster Declaration request U.S. Territory of Guam Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4388-DR-MT Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4394-DR-SC Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-3402-EM-CNMI FMAG approved Bald Mountain Fire, UT

123 Florence Lifelines/Response Safety & Security: NC: Dams are stabilizing as flood levels decrease through watersheds; assessments ongoing and Civil Air Patrol flying missions as needed by state dam regulators for situational awareness Food, Water and Shelter: NC: 34 (-18) shelters open with 2,885 (-2,337) occupants SC: 15 shelters open with 204 occupants KY: 1 shelter open with 8 occupants; TN: 2 shelter open with 14 occupants Health and Medical: 40 Confirmed fatalities in NC & SC SC: All hospitals open in affected area; monitoring hospitals and 4 nursing homes in potential inundation area Energy: NC: 55,232 (1.1%) total outages reported statewide; largest concentration of customer outages in New Hanover County NC: 14% (-2) of gas stations out-of-service due to lack of fuel and/or power; fuel outages are concentrated in Wilmington and Greenville/New Bern/Washington Area (35% reporting no fuel) Communications: NC: 22% (-2) of broadband internet service out in impacted counties, largely attributed to lack of power Transportation: NC: Approximately 649 (-164) roads closed due to flooding; to include closures on I- 95, I-40 and US-70; 9 of 11 bridges to Barrier Islands re-opened SC: 169 road closures; US-501 re-opened north of Conway; flood mitigation work continues on US-17; detours in place for flooded portions of I-95 Hazardous Waste: NC: At least 28 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) impacted, affecting at least 26 counties; state engaged with WWTPs on generator requirements and fuel delivery NC SC FEMA HQ NRCC at Level III (Day shift); Enhanced Watch (Night shift) National IMAT East-1 deployed to NC EOC Composite IMAT deployed to SC EOC MERS assets deployed Region VIII IMAT deployed to NC EOC Region V IMAT demobilizing from FEMA HQ today Region IV RRCC at Level III with select ESFs (Day shift) RWC at Steady State LNOs deployed to NC & SC DCO/DCE deployed to NC & SC IMAT 1 deployed to NC; IMAT 2 deployed to SC North Carolina (FEMA-4393-DR-NC & 3401-EM-NC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: Red IST, 2 Type 3; 3 MRP Water Teams South Carolina (FEMA-4394-DR-SC & FEMA-3400-EM-SC): EOC at Full Activation; State of Emergency declared US&R: 2 Type 1; 1 MRP Water Team; 1 HEPP Tennessee & Kentucky: EOCs at Monitoring (EMAC support) Region III 2 IMATs (Type III) demobilized from VA Virginia (FEMA-3403-EM-VA): EOC at Monitoring

124 River Flood Update

125 Tropical Outlook Atlantic Tropical Depression Eleven (Advisory #2 as of 5:00 a.m. EDT) Located 505 miles E of the Windward Islands Moving W at 5 mph Maximum sustained winds 35 mph Expected to dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 500 miles S of the southern Cabo Verde Islands Moving W at 20 mph; tropical depression appears to be forming Formation chance through 48 hours: High (80%) Formation chance through 5 days: High (80%) Disturbance 2 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 200 miles S of Bermuda; moving W then WNW Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (10%) Formation chance through 5 days: Low (30%) 5-Day Disturbance 3 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Located 900 miles WSW of the Azores; meandering over central Atlantic Ocean Subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Medium (60%) Formation chance through 5 days: High (70%) 2 30% 3 70% 1 80%

126 Tropical Outlook Eastern Pacific Disturbance 1 (as of 8:00 a.m. EDT) Expected to form in a couple of days well to the south of the southern coast of Mexico Tropical depression could form by middle of next week Formation chance through 48 hours: Low (near 0%) Formation chance through 5 days: Medium (60%) 48 hour 5-Day 1 60%

127 Tropical Outlook Central Pacific 48 Hour Outlook 5 Day Outlook

128 National Weather Forecast Sat Sun Mon

129 Severe Weather Outlook Sat Sun Mon

130 Precipitation / Excessive Rainfall Forecast Sat Mon Sat Sun Mon

131 Fire Weather Outlook Saturday Sunday

132 Hazards Outlook Sep 24-28

133 Space Weather Space Weather Activity Geomagnetic Storms Solar Radiation Radio Blackouts Past 24 Hours Minor G1 None None Next 24 Hours Minor G1 None None For further information on NOAA Space Weather Scales refer to: HF Communication Impact Sunspot Activity

134 Bald Mountain Fire UT Fire Name (County) Bald Mountain Fire (Utah) FMAG # / Approved XXXX-FM-UT Sept 21,2018 Acres burned Percent Contained 18,502 18% Evacuations (Residents) Mandatory (6,000) Structures Threatened Damaged Destroyed Fatalities / Injuries 2,600 homes / 0 Current Situation Fire began August 24, 2018 and is threatening communities in and around Utah County (pop. 592k) and is burning on federal (94%), State (2%), and private (4%) land Threatening homes, Nebo Loop Road (tourist attraction) and a flood control diversion dam At least two watersheds have been destroyed Mandatory and voluntary evacuations are in effect for approximately 6,000 people Response UT EOC at Partial Activation (wildfires) Region VIII at Steady State but continues to monitor

135 Wildfire Summary Fire Name (County) FMAG Number Acres Burned Percent Contained Evacuations Structures Fatalities / Threatened Damaged Destroyed Injuries Wyoming (1) Roosevelt Fire (Sublette) 5276-FM-WY 34,411 (+2,730) 15% (+15%) Mandatory 472 (251 homes) 0 4 (+3) (2 homes) 0 / 0

136 Joint Preliminary Damage Assessments Region III V VII State / Location PA PA WI KS Event Severe Weather July 21 27, 2018 Severe Weather August 10 15, 2018 Flooding and Severe Weather August 17 September 14, 2018 Severe Storms and Flooding September 1 8, 2018 IA / PA Number of Counties Requested Completed Start End IA 12 9 (+3) 9/19 TBD PA 14 8 (+2) 9/20 TBD IA 14 9 (+3) 9/19 TBD PA 13 5 (+1) 9/20 TBD IA /24 TBD PA /24 TBD IA N/A N/A N/A PA 9 0 9/24 - TBD

137 Declaration Request U.S. Territory of Guam The Governor requested a Major Disaster Declaration on September 21, 2018 For Typhoon Mangkhut that occurred September 10-11, 2018 Requesting: o Individual Assistance o Public Assistance o Hazard Mitigation for the entire territory IA/PA

138 Disaster Requests & Declarations Declaration Requests in Process Requests APPROVED (since last report) Requests DENIED (since last report) 7 IA PA HM Date Requested 0 0 LA DR Flooding X X June 29, 2018 NJ DR Severe Storms and Flooding X X August 30, 2018 HI DR Hurricane Lane and Wildfires X X X September 5, 2018 PA (Appeal) DR Severe Storms, Flooding, and Landslides X X September 7, 2018 NY DR Severe Storms and Tornadoes X X September 9, 2018 CNMI DR Typhoon Mangkhut X X X September 20, 2018 Guam DR Typhoon Mangkhut X X X September 21, 2018

139 Disaster Amendments Amendment Date Issued Action Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4388-DR-MT September 18, 2018 Adds one county for Public Assistance Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-4394-DR-SC September 21, 2018 Adds 4 counties for Individual Assistance, and 2 counties for emergency protective measures (Category B), including direct federal assistance, under the PA program Amendment No. 1 to FEMA-3402-EM-CNMI September 21, 2018 Closes the incident period effective September 11, 2018

140 Readiness Deployable Teams and Assets Resource Force Strength Available Deployed Other Cadres with 25% or Less Availability DSA 12% (103/836); EHP 8% (33/412); ER 0% (0/44); FL 20% (32/157); FM 19% (50/267); IM Workforce 11,935 2,079 17% 6,351 3,505 HM 22% (210/970); HR 7% (16/235); IA 19% (528/2,809); IT 9% (59/633); LOG 10% (112/1,161); OPS 15% (40/266); PA 9% (171/1,819); PLAN 10% (34/336); SAF 4% (2/53); SEC 6% (6/109) East 1: Deployed National IMATs* (1-2 Teams) Regional IMATs (< 3 Teams) National ISBs (0 Teams) US&R (< 33%) MERS (33-65%) FCO ( 1 Type I) FDRC (< 3) Composite: Deployed West: B-2 Assigned: 13 Available: 3 PMC / NMC: 4 (+1) Deployed: 6 (-1) Team A Deployed Team B Deployed Team C Deployed Assigned: 28 Available: 8 PMC / NMC: 11 Deployed: 9 Assigned: 36 Available: 22 (+1) PMC / NMC: 0 Deployed: 14 (-1) Assigned: 33 Available: 15 (+2) PMC / NMC: 3 (+1) Deployed: 15 (-3) Assigned: 14 Available: 1 PMC / NMC: 3 Deployed: 10 * B-2 Status: Assemble 2-hrs, On Site 18-hrs; B-48 Status: Assemble and deploy 48hrs; Charlie Status: No team assemble time requirement