2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD. Elwynn Taylor
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1 2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD Elwynn Taylor
2 Garden of the Gods & Pike s Peak
3 Frost sensitive fruit trees on upland slope
4 Temperature Inversions arron.jpg/1200px-smokeceilinginlochcarron.jpg
5
6 Spray hangs in air above field Material evaporates off leaves & hangs in air just a few feet above the field (and spreads out) Interest in the inversion at a height of 20ft or less 12ft? Corn fields 8Ft? soy, depending on height of crop.
7 Wind greater than 3mph but less than 10mph (as specified in label)
8 Forestry Suppliers for example
9
10
11
12 Where is Rain most Likely?
13 Where is Rain most Likely?
14
15 Return to Harsh Winters? (60-yr cycle) 2007, 08, 09, 10 had a negative NAO 2009 was El Niño, the other 3 were La Niña. 2 modern snow cover records set in Hard freeze possible in FL (if La Nina)
16 Hard Freezes in FL During the harsh US winter phase & During the La Nina dominate episodes, FL is more likely to freeze
17 Days/yr 10 Below Days/yr 93F Ames, IA T >=93 T =< Not as many Hot or Cold days Some postulate a saw-tooth 89-year cycle to re-establish in 2019 (tree-ring). Yes, that means 2025 may look a lot like 1936.
18 When it is dry it is not a great crop, if it is almost dry it could go either way
19 COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters
20 http//mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=108:
21 Slight 2017 GDD advantage
22 A good yr A bad yr. mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/u2u/acv/
23
24
25
26 Johnson county (all counties available) Note a good year and a bad
27 Now you know what a good year and a bad year looked like. Compare next year as it moves along.
28 Ann precip An Iowa City average year. yourweatherservice.com/climate/logan/united-states/usia0498
29 Ann precip A Washington Iowa average year. yourweatherservice.com/climate/logan/united-states/usia0498
30 Castana: Rain Oct 1-10 filled the soil with water (it is still there below 7 inch level) [when soil is frozen: we cannot measure water when frozen.]
31 When does heat stress begin? 80F? 86F? 93F? If it is 10 degrees warmer the water need doubles 20 of water needed for a trend yield. 25 of water needed for a record high yield. ( Heat stress at 93F, but water stress can start at any temperature although in the Corn Belt it averages at 86F)
32 If July-Aug is colder (blue) than usual, the corn yield may exceed expected. 1&year=2017&var=low&how=diff&dpi=100&_
33 1994 had a higher than expected yield 1995 much lower than expected yield
34 were years with a strong El Nino. Although El Nino does not assure a large yield the odds of above trend corn yield is near 70% for seasons dominated by the El Nino. The event was clearly one of the 5 strongest since Weak La Nina is in place. odds favor persistence. PDO-neutral likely Meaning impact on Midwest not as strong as the when both are strong.
35 a strong La Nina would be warm (red). Stronger than 2 weeks ago.
36 La Nina and not wet in Southern Corn region of S America
37 stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4 Beyond 137
38 9Nov 2017 est BPA The USDA estimate of United States Corn yield was BPA as of October Although above the 30-year trend by some 4% it was shy of the trend +10% seen in 2004, but in line with the immediate past two years. Nov. 9 estimate 175.4
39 Return to Harsh Winters? 2007, 08, 09, 10 had a negative NAO 2009 was El Niño, the other 3 were La Niña. 2 modern snow cover records set in Hard freeze possible in FL (if La Nina)
40 Hard Freezes in FL During the harsh US winter phase & During the La Nina dominate episodes, FL is more likely to freeze
41
42
43 Seasonal guess: Begin with subsoil moisture me Look to ENSO long Look at Seasonal Outlooks
44 mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/gis/apps/coop/gsplot.phtml?network=iaclimate&var=prec&year=2017&smonth=10&sday=1&emonth=12&eday=31
45 Castana: Rain Oct 1-10 filled the soil with water (it is still there below 7 inch level) [when soil is frozen: we cannot measure water when frozen.]
46 END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist
47
48
49
50 END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist
2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD. Elwynn Taylor
2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD Elwynn Taylor setaylor@iastate.edu Garden of the Gods & Pike s Peak Frost sensitive fruit trees on upland slope Temperature Inversions
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