2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD. Elwynn Taylor

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1 2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD Elwynn Taylor

2 Garden of the Gods & Pike s Peak

3 Frost sensitive fruit trees on upland slope

4 Temperature Inversions arron.jpg/1200px-smokeceilinginlochcarron.jpg

5

6 Spray hangs in air above field Material evaporates off leaves & hangs in air just a few feet above the field (and spreads out) Interest in the inversion at a height of 20ft or less 12ft? Corn fields 8Ft? soy, depending on height of crop.

7 Wind greater than 3mph but less than 10mph (as specified in label)

8 Forestry Suppliers for example

9

10

11

12 Where is Rain most Likely?

13 Where is Rain most Likely?

14

15 Return to Harsh Winters? (60-yr cycle) 2007, 08, 09, 10 had a negative NAO 2009 was El Niño, the other 3 were La Niña. 2 modern snow cover records set in Hard freeze possible in FL (if La Nina)

16 Hard Freezes in FL During the harsh US winter phase & During the La Nina dominate episodes, FL is more likely to freeze

17 Days/yr 10 Below Days/yr 93F Ames, IA T >=93 T =< Not as many Hot or Cold days Some postulate a saw-tooth 89-year cycle to re-establish in 2019 (tree-ring). Yes, that means 2025 may look a lot like 1936.

18 When it is dry it is not a great crop, if it is almost dry it could go either way

19 COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters

20 http//mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?q=108:

21 Slight 2017 GDD advantage

22 A good yr A bad yr. mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/u2u/acv/

23

24

25

26 Johnson county (all counties available) Note a good year and a bad

27 Now you know what a good year and a bad year looked like. Compare next year as it moves along.

28 Ann precip An Iowa City average year. yourweatherservice.com/climate/logan/united-states/usia0498

29 Ann precip A Washington Iowa average year. yourweatherservice.com/climate/logan/united-states/usia0498

30 Castana: Rain Oct 1-10 filled the soil with water (it is still there below 7 inch level) [when soil is frozen: we cannot measure water when frozen.]

31 When does heat stress begin? 80F? 86F? 93F? If it is 10 degrees warmer the water need doubles 20 of water needed for a trend yield. 25 of water needed for a record high yield. ( Heat stress at 93F, but water stress can start at any temperature although in the Corn Belt it averages at 86F)

32 If July-Aug is colder (blue) than usual, the corn yield may exceed expected. 1&year=2017&var=low&how=diff&dpi=100&_

33 1994 had a higher than expected yield 1995 much lower than expected yield

34 were years with a strong El Nino. Although El Nino does not assure a large yield the odds of above trend corn yield is near 70% for seasons dominated by the El Nino. The event was clearly one of the 5 strongest since Weak La Nina is in place. odds favor persistence. PDO-neutral likely Meaning impact on Midwest not as strong as the when both are strong.

35 a strong La Nina would be warm (red). Stronger than 2 weeks ago.

36 La Nina and not wet in Southern Corn region of S America

37 stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4 Beyond 137

38 9Nov 2017 est BPA The USDA estimate of United States Corn yield was BPA as of October Although above the 30-year trend by some 4% it was shy of the trend +10% seen in 2004, but in line with the immediate past two years. Nov. 9 estimate 175.4

39 Return to Harsh Winters? 2007, 08, 09, 10 had a negative NAO 2009 was El Niño, the other 3 were La Niña. 2 modern snow cover records set in Hard freeze possible in FL (if La Nina)

40 Hard Freezes in FL During the harsh US winter phase & During the La Nina dominate episodes, FL is more likely to freeze

41

42

43 Seasonal guess: Begin with subsoil moisture me Look to ENSO long Look at Seasonal Outlooks

44 mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/gis/apps/coop/gsplot.phtml?network=iaclimate&var=prec&year=2017&smonth=10&sday=1&emonth=12&eday=31

45 Castana: Rain Oct 1-10 filled the soil with water (it is still there below 7 inch level) [when soil is frozen: we cannot measure water when frozen.]

46 END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist

47

48

49

50 END Elwynn Taylor Iowa State University Climatologist

2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD. Elwynn Taylor

2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD. Elwynn Taylor 2018 Weather Outlook, Inversions & Managing of Weather Risk Using GDD Elwynn Taylor setaylor@iastate.edu Garden of the Gods & Pike s Peak Frost sensitive fruit trees on upland slope Temperature Inversions

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