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1 BLUEFIELDS EMERGENCY PLATFORM: Community Early Warning Systems for Mitigating Hydro-Meteorological Impacts in Bluefields, Jamaica T. Hyman, J. Horney, B. Carby, K. Miller, M. Taylor

2 OUTLINE Background & Project Justification Pilot Site Project Question Project Objectives Methodology Project Stages Expected Outcomes 2

3 BACKGROUND

4 JAMAICA & THE CARIBBEAN PRONE to: 1. H y d r o - meteorological Hazards e.g. Storms / Hurricanes UNEP, 2010 Hydro- meteorological hazards i.e. hurricanes & storms which give rise to, storm surge, >looding and droughts are the most frequently occurring hazards (Carby et al., 2012). 2. Geological Hazards i.e. e.g. Earthquakes & Tsunamis 3. Man Made / Technological Hazards - e.g. Oil Spills 4

5 COST OF MAJOR CLIMATIC EVENTS Event Year Category Cost ($J billions) Impact (% of GDP) Hurricane Michelle May/June Flood Rains Hurricane Charley Hurricane Ivan Hurricanes Dennis & Emily Hurricane Wilma Hurricane Dean Tropical Storm Gustav 2008 N/A Tropical Storm Nicole 2010 N/A Hurricane Sandy State of Jamaica s Climate Report 2012 COMPARED TO 1% OF GDP for Industrialized Countries 5

6 1979 FLOODING EVENT BLUEFIELDS v extensive debris flows, mudflows, and sediment flooding occurring over some 2,500 sq.km v damages affecting western parishes totaled US$ 27 million and 40 deaths v Hurricane Ivan (2004) also caused fishers to lose traps, canoes also serious shoreline erosion Source: Ahmad v Houses, roads, culverts, bridges, other infrastructure, and crops were buried under tons of landslide debris

7 PROJECT JUSTIFICATION community based approaches to disaster risk management are integral in mitigating the impacts of devastating events and contributing to sustainable development It is important that coastal communities understand the threats faced, and spearhead disaster management and planning at THAT level In light of inadequate national warning systems OR the possibility that information flows and government response can be delayed or decapitated (2010 Haitian Earthquake) NO OFFICIAL COMMUNITY WARNING SYSTEM / ALERT EXISTS IN BLUEFIELDS 7

8 PILOT SITE

9 PILOT SITE: BLUEFIELDS, WESTMORELAND Bluefields District Southwest Coast

10 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: FISHING TOURISM AGRICULTURE Bird Watching Estimated Population Size 4708 Fishing Bluefields Bay Building Materials % Board 62.1 Concrete 21.4 Concrete & Block 11.5 Hiking The Wailers Singing Group Organic 12 Farming

11 PROJECT QUESTION

12 WHAT IS THE SUSTAINABLE BALANCE? In this Context: What is the method / means of responding to Hydro- Met hazards? Is it effective, adequate etc? Human Response & Systems Formal or Informal Eco-System Capacity Sustainable Balance Land use Infrastructure 12

13 PROJECT OBJECTIVES

14 PROJECT OBJECTIVES to assess efficiency in terms of time, tasks and use of resources for farmers and fishers, when hurricane warnings are received Specifically look at the role that mobile telephony can play in preparedness and response given Jamaica s mobile penetration rate of 128% To measure the above, in terms of impact on agricultural crops, fish catch, personal safety, infrastructure 14

15 OBJECTIVES Task Efficiency Time Op0miza0on Earnings and Livelihood (fisheries /agriculture)

16 METHODOLOGY q Conceptual framework Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) (SD) q Agent based Models - Net logo

17 CHANS Exogenous Factors Farmers /Fishers CLIMAT E (exploit) Ecosystem Services Marine and Terrestrial ENVIRONMENT Food and Water Recrea0on / leisure Nutrient Cycles Climate and Disease Control Endogenous Factors 17

18 USE OF AGENT BASED MODELS (ABMS) Agent based models are: computer simulations that model the decisions of stakeholders, their interactions with other stakeholders AND the impact of these decisions on the environment, in response to stimuli (i.e. climatic warnings). currently the best medium to capture individual human- environment interactions versus the use of aggregate modelling are more visually engaging, spatially explicit and bring emergent behaviour to the forefront 18

19 BUILDING THE BPM Baseline Scenario past clima0c event Emergency Procedures and make management decisions Daily work rou0ne of farmers/ fishers Model runs and comparisons: current system vs. introduced system Impact of a warning on work rou0ne Manipulate the model: interven0ons/ proposed system (mobiles) Insert Informa0on in an Agent Based Model 19

20 BLUEFIELDS PROTOTYPE MODEL (BPM) MARINE & TERRESTIAL LANDSCAPE FARMERS & FISHERS WARNING SYSTEM HYDRO-MET EVENT EMERGENCY RESPONSE

21 Marine and Terrestrial Landscape coast, shoreline, mountain, midlands flood prone areas, secondary impacts marine environment Farmers & Fishers Location Daily routine Emergency tasks Warning System National, local/community Time of Day warning is given 24hours, 36 hours, less than 24 hours Information and Communication Systems Hydro- Meteorological Events Storm / hurricane Past hurricane events and their impacts Intensity of cyclone Wind Direction Emergency Response Business as usual Delayed response On-time response Early response Current system vs. Proposed system 21

22 NETLOGO INTERFACE FISHERS EMERGENCY RESPONSE 22

23 PROJECT STAGES

24 PROCESS Community Specific Computer Simulations (Current System) Computer Simulations with interventions + MOBILE (proposed system) Critique and use of Agent Models and outputs by community stakeholders i.e. farmers, fishers Mobile Architecture System BEP (suite of applications/ Central command system) Mfisheries Project - UWI Indigenous Warning System TESTING 24

25 EXPECTED OUTCOMES Community-specific indigenous warning and response system Replication of this in other communities regionally, globally Mainstreamed into national/regional planning and policy e.g. alerts, warning systems, communication with citizens Validation of the role of mobile telephony in hazard preparedness and response. Community valuations of timely / delayed responses for planning purposes More holistic account of loss and damage as well as savings 25

26 PROJECT COLLABORATORS Disaster Risk Reduction Centre UWI, Jamaica Department of Computer Sciences UWI, Jamaica Climate Studies Group UWI, Jamaica Texas A&M University USA IAMO - Germany

27 THANK YOU 27

28 No of>icial Communication system Individual response to threats (>ishers) task ef>iciency SCENARIOS Communication System e.g. texts on mobile Group vs individual response (BPCA) Emergency operations centre storage facilities, registry for boats Landscape Flood prone Landslide prone Coast vs. mountain Building Techniques Category hurricane 28

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