Dec 2015 & Jan Dear CoCoRaHS Observer,

Transcription

1 ISA & CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Newsletter - Dec 2015 & Jan... 1 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM Click this link to open the in a browser. Click here Dec 2015 & Jan 2016 In This Issue Climate Update for the Carolinas Winter weather and the Carolina Panthers Dear CoCoRaHS Observer, We hope that your winter has been off to a good start and that you are enjoying the holidays! This combined newsletter for December and January highlights winter weather in the Carolinas. In the Climate Update, we discuss temperature and precipitation totals for 2015 and look at the 2015 Winter Weather Outlook. We also consider how winter conditions might impact our regional NFL favorite, the Carolina Panthers. To refresh your memory, there are also tips from the CoCoRaHS site on how to measure winter precipitation. We continue our series on how different organizations and individuals use CoCoRaHS information with a highlight of the South Carolina State Climatology Office. Finally, we recognize Jim Lawler from Richland County, SC as our Condition Monitoring Star of the Month and share some of his tips for becoming a stellar observer. Enjoy the rest of the holidays and we wish you a Happy New Year! Sincerely, The CISA Team - Amanda, David, Henrik, Kirsten, Kirstin, and Sumi Tips on Measuring Winter Precipitation Meet the South Carolina State Climatology Office Condition Monitoring Star of the Month: Jim Lawler Quick Links CISA Website CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Webpage Cuckoo for CoCoRaHS in the Carolinas Blog Follow us on Twitter Visit us on Facebook

2 2 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM From drought to floods, the Carolinas have experienced a range of conditions this year. The impacts of these events have been felt across a variety of sectors. Clemson University produced a short documentary on the impact of both the summer short-term drought and fall flooding on the agriculture and forestry industries in South Carolina. They made an interactive timeline highlighting different drought and flood impacts on farmers during this year Weather In Review Although the floods and summer drought highlighted the extremes, Year to Date (YTD) analyses for temperature averages and precipitation totals provide a way to understand "recent conditions in both a historical and geographic perspective," according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC). The SERCC's precipitation total YTD analysis from January 1, 2015 to December 17th, 2015 shows that the YTD total precipitation for many stations along the coast of both Carolinas rank in the top ten among all historic records at those stations. Stations along the South Carolina coast currently show their YTD totals ranking the highest on record. Screenshot of YTD total precipitation rankings for January 1 to December 17, 2015 from SERCC's Southeast Climate Perspectives Map. For average temperature, analyses show YTD mean temperature ranks in the top ten for some areas in the Carolinas. For more information on these regional perspectives, visit SERCC's Southeast Climate Perspectives Map. You can also use this interactive map to see how your YTD precipitation measurements compare to the closest station near you by clicking the number on the map closest to where you live.

3 3 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM As of December 15, 2015, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor Map, both North Carolina and South Carolina are drought free. If you would like to know more about current drought conditions in other parts of the country, check out the U.S. Drought Monitor Map here. It is released weekly on Thursday mornings, 7 am EST. Forecasts for the Winter Season The winter season, which officially began on December 21st during the winter solstice, will most likely bring more rain to the Carolinas. NOAA's 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February indicates higher than normal precipitation in the Carolinas. The temperature outlook is more uncertain with equal chances of having above- or below-normal temperatures this winter. As discussed in previous newsletters and the article below about football bowl weather conditions, various factors influence winter weather. However, this year, forecasters expect the strong El Niño to play a big role in above normal precipitation throughout much of the Southeast.

4 4 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM U.S. Winter Outlooks produced by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration If you are interested in additional winter weather forecasts, be sure to also check out the State Climate Office of North Carolina's Official Winter Outlook for North Carolina. Football is a popular sport during December, January, and February - a time of playoffs, bowl games, and the Super Bowl. It is also a time when weather conditions play a big role in the outcome of the game. Most years, the Carolina Panthers are the best NFL team in the Carolinas. This year, the Carolina Panthers are one of the best NFL teams in the country. With such a great regular season mostly behind them, the Panthers currently have the best record in the NFL and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. If the Panthers lock up the number one seed after the next few games, then they will have a first round bye and will host the Divisional Round on Jan 16 or 17. If they win that game, they will host the NFC Conference Championship on Jan 24. For those of you interested in the prospects of the Carolina Panthers, we assess how the predicted climate oscillations might affect the weather at the Bank of America Stadium in Source: Carolina Panthers Official Site.

5 5 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM Charlotte. El Niño According to a report issued by the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Wilmington, NC, there are three main points to know about the effects of El Niño on the Carolinas: El Niño brings a lot of rain, there is no clear tendency for cold vs warm winter temperatures, and there are infrequent, but sometimes large, snowstorms. El Niño brings a lot of rain to the Carolinas In almost all cases on record, a strong El Niño brings abovenormal rainfall to the Carolinas during the winter months of December through February. Almost every El Niño winter on record has seen above-average rainfall totals, and some of the highest ever river crests were observed on the Cape Fear River, on the Little Pee Dee River, and on the Black River during El Niño winters. No clear tendency for cold vs warm winter temperatures During El Niño winters on record there is only a small deviation from normal in either winter mean temperatures or coldest winter temperatures. The El Niño winters of and had very cold winters, and the El Niños of and had very warm winters. Infrequent, but sometimes large snowstorms Snowfalls are much more varied compared with rainfall. The El Niño winter of produced record snow falls in parts of the Carolinas, however El Niños in and brought below normal or zero snowfall totals. Arctic Oscillation El Niño is not the only atmospheric pattern that affects the southeastern United States. The Arctic Oscillation can overwhelm the weather patterns across eastern North America. You may remember last winter when the polar vortex brought a blast of cold, Arctic air south. This year the Arctic Oscillation is trending the opposite way and is bringing warmer air north which has resulted in the mild December weather so far. The oscillation is expected to continue to warm the south throughout the early parts of winter. Summary There is a higher than normal chance of rain and higher than normal chance of above average temperatures for the Panthers' home playoff games in January. There is a very slim chance that they will receive above average snowfall, but

6 6 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM that is unlikely so they should not have to worry about losing inflation in their footballs. We don't need a repeat of last year's "deflate gate" controversy. To find more information about how weather affects your favorite sport, see SERCC's page on sporting events climatology. Winter weather can often sneak up on us. Three days in advance of an ice or snow storm, you might hurry to the store to pick up a few essentials and brace for any power outages or road closures. However, you can still contribute to CoCoRaHS even if you're cooped up at home during a winter storm. According to the CoCoRaHS snow measurement training materials, "scientists are just as interested in variations of snowfall as they are rain and hail." You can either use your CoCoRaHS rain gauge or a snowboard (plywood or water board ½ to ¾" thick cut into a 16 x 16 inch square, painted white) to measure the snowfall. There are three ways to take measurements for snow mentioned by CoCoRaHS: 1. Snowfall Only: this is the measurement of snowfall accumulation with a ruler on a snowboard or equivalent surface. 2. Liquid Equivalent of Snowfall with your Rain Gauge: this is the snow that falls into the gauge and has been melted down. 3. Liquid Equivalent of Snowfall from a "Core Measurement" using your Rain Gauge and Snowboard: this is taking a sample of snow from the snowboard with the gauge and melting the snow. Additional information is available on the CoCoRaHS website and in this training webinar. CoCoRaHS stresses that if you do use your rain gauge, be sure to remove and bring the inner tube and funnel inside if temperatures drop below freezing. They also provide special instructions if you live in a particularly windy area or place with deep snowfall.

7 7 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM In order to measure ice accumulation or accretion, CoCoRaHS suggests measuring branches or objects that have "glazed" over using a ruler, preferably an official CoCoRaHS snow ruler or a scientific ruler. For more information, CoCoRaHS provides training slides with tips on measuring ice accretion. Example from CoCoRaHS Ice Accretion Training Slides. By following winter weather forecasts on your local news station or the National Weather Service, you can prepare in advance to take your snowfall precipitation measurements. You can also go to CoCoRaHS's YouTube channel to view short videos on different measuring techniques and preparing for winter weather events. If you have tips from past experiences or pictures of winter weather near you, please send them to us at cisa@sc.edu so we can share them in our next newsletter or blog post. While many individuals might get their weather information from the local weather station or even the National Weather Service, most states in the U.S. have an official state climate office that documents long-term weather and climate patterns. The South Carolina State Climatology Office (SCO) was established in 1986 and is part of the Department of Natural Resources. The SCO's mission is "to provide timely, high quality, and pertinent climate data and information to public and private customers and decision makers in South Carolina" in the most cost-effective way at little to no charge

8 8 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM for consumers of the information. The SCO highly values and regularly uses the weather and climate data that comes from CoCoRaHS. The SCO actively recruits CoCoRaHS observers and recognizes observers who have been with the program for a number of years. CoCoRaHS citizen scientists play a valuable role in providing precipitation information. CoCoRaHS data augments data collected by other surface weather monitoring stations, such as the Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS), and helps meteorologists better understand the local variation in precipitation. For example, the SCO created a map of Charleston County, SC showing how rainfall totals during the heavy rainfall event in October differed when using precipitation data measured only by ASOS weather stations versus totals that also included CoCoRaHS station data.

9 9 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM Charleston County rainfall totals without (top) and with CoCoRaHS station measurements (bottom). Created by South Carolina State Climatology Office. While ASOS weather stations exist across the state and also provide valuable information, some of the local variations in precipitation that can occur across small distances would be missed without CoCoRaHS observations. This is echoed by South Carolina State Climatologist Dr. Hope Mizzell on the SCO CoCoRaHS webpage where she is quoted: "there is a shortage of reliable rainfall data from across South Carolina...many counties have such sparse coverage that major storms can pass by, but miss the few gauges in the area." The CISA team also works closely with Hope and her team at the SCO on the Condition Monitoring project to better understand how condition monitoring information can provide useful information for statewide drought monitoring and response efforts. In South Carolina, the Drought Response Committee consists of representatives from all parts of the state and meets when dry conditions begin to emerge. They use a variety of indicators to determine county drought designations. Previous drought status in the state can be found in their online archive. Hope's input on the development of the condition monitoring pilot project and phase two of the project has been critical, and our team will continue to work with her and the SCO as we move forward to find ways to support statewide drought monitoring.

10 ISA & CoCoRaHS Condition Monitoring Newsletter - Dec 2015 & Jan of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM For more information about South Carolina climate and weather, check out additional resources on the SCO's website. For December and January, we selected Jim Lawler from Richland County, SC as our observer of the month. CISA team member Sumi Selvaraj spent time talking with Jim earlier this month to learn more about how he became a citizen scientist with CoCoRaHS and what motivates him to participate. Jim has participated as a condition monitoring observer since 2013 and has been a CoCoRaHS precipitation observer for much longer. He first joined CoCoRaHS after seeing an advertisement in the local newspaper. However, prior to joining CoCoRaHS, Jim gained experience taking precipitation measurements with a rain gauge when his son participated in a research project on rainfall readings. Even after the project finished, Jim continued to take precipitation measurements, which helped him easily transition into becoming a regular CoCoRaHS observer. He has only had to replace his rain gauge once during his years of precipitation measurement! Jim has always been interested in weather and how it works, and CoCoRaHS gives him an opportunity to explore these interests. After becoming a regular at taking precipitation measurements, he did not find it difficult to also begin submitting regular condition monitoring reports. Jim mentions that condition monitoring provides an opportunity for him to be more observant of local conditions and connect what he sees to his daily precipitation measurements, as he does in his most recent reports below: 12/5/2015 We've had 0.29" in the last 12 days. Our French drains and the most persistent springs are still active, but the vast majority of the springs in the neighborhood have now stopped. Still, our drain at the foot of the driveway remains active and has been for well over two months. We don't remember a time in our 20 years here where that's happened. 12/12/2015 We've had no rain for the past 9 days and less than 1/2 inch over the past 23, but our French drains are still running and there are places in the neighborhood where ground water is still seeping, although these are few and far between and not running as strongly as in the recent past.

11 11 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM Jim begins each report by providing a rainfall total and then describing specific local conditions in the context of those measurements. In both reports, he highlights how regardless of the local rainfall, their "French drains and the most persistent springs" in his neighborhood still have flowing water, indicating that the local water table has been very high, perhaps from previous rainfall events. He maintains consistency between reports by highlighting the same springs and drains, which helps the reader understand how local water levels change and helps him remember what to observe and report on each week. Jim also uses his local knowledge gained from living in his community for 20 years to highlight how he has never seen such consistent drainage activity for over two months as he has observed recently. These observations align with the recent high, and even historic rainfall totals that have been measured in his area. Jim suggests for any new CoCoRaHS observers--whether you are just taking precipitation measurements or are new to condition monitoring--to incorporate these activities into your daily routine. Jim measures precipitation each morning at 6:30am as he leaves for work since his rain gauge is near his driveway. Once he arrives at the office, he enters in his measurements. Whenever he's out of town, Jim submits a multi-day report on CoCoRaHS. For condition monitoring, he writes his reports weekly on Saturdays around the time when he reads his morning newspaper. It's clear that Jim's interests in local weather and how it works, as well as consistent observations, make him a reliable and consistent observer. Thank you again Jim for sharing with us about your CoCoRaHS routine and participating in the condition monitoring project. We really appreciate all of the valuable information that you have been submitting over the many years! Feel free to contact us with any questions. Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments cisa@sc.edu University of South Carolina Department of Geography 709 Bull Street Columbia, SC 29208

12 12 of 12 1/25/2016 4:34 PM Forward this This was sent to by Update Profile/ Address Rapid removal with SafeUnsubscribe About our service provider. Carolinas Integrated Sciences & Assessments University of South Carolina Department of Geography 709 Bull Street Columbia SC 29208