Gennady Menzhulin, Gleb Peterson and Natalya Shamshurina

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1 Availability of the New Climate Models to Reproduce the Historical Climate Variations: Whether the Climate Changes Scenarios Recommended in the 4 th IPCC Report can be Ranked by their Accuracy? Gennady Menzhulin, Gleb Peterson and Natalya Shamshurina Research Centre for Interdisciplinary Environmental Cooperation of Russian Academy of Sciences Symposium on Climate Change and Variability - Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies for Agriculture Oscarsborg. Norway, 3-6 June, 2008

2 Models Used for Generation of Climate Change Scenarios Recommended in 4-th IPCC Report (2007) for Impact Studies Research Centres Country Name of Model Resolution T mean Tmax Tmin Precip 1 Beijing Climate Center CHINA BCC-CM1 192x 96 L16 2 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research NORWAY BCCR-BCM x 64 L31 3 National Center for Atmospheric Research USA CCSM3 156x128 L26 4 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CANADA CGCM3(T47) 96x 48 L32 5 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis CANADA CGCM3(T63) 128x 64 L45 6 Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques FRANCE CNRM-CM3 128x 64 L45 7 Commonwealth Science and Industry Research Organisation AUSTRALIA CSIRO-Mk x 96 L18 8 Commonwealth Science and Industry Research Organisation AUSTRALIA CSIRO-Mk x 96 L18 9 Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology GERMANY ECHAM5_MPI-OM 192x 96 L31 Meteorological Institute, University of Bonn GERMANY 10 Meteorological Research Institute of KMA KOREA ECHOG-G 96x 48 L19 Model and Data Groupe at MPI-M GERMANY 11 Institude of Atmospheric Physics CHINA FGOALS-g x 60 L26 12 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM x 90 L24 13 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM x 90 L24 14 Goddard Institute for Space Study USA GISS-AOM 90x 60 L12 15 Goddard Institute for Space Study USA GISS-EH 72x 46 L20 16 Goddard Institute for Space Study USA GISS-ER 72x 46 L20 17 National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology ITALY INGV-SXG x160 L19 18 Institute for Numerical Mathematics RUSSIA INM-CM3.0 72x 45 L21 19 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace FRANCE IPSL-CM3.0 96x 72 L19 20 National Institute for Environmental Studies JAPAN MIROC3.2(mr) 128x 64 L20 21 National Institute for Environmental Studies JAPAN MIROC3.2(hr) 320x160 L56 22 Meteorological Research Institute JAPAN MRI-CGCM x 64 L30 23 National Center for Atmospheric Research USA PCM-NCAR 128x 64 L26 24 United Kingdom Meteorological Office / Hadley Centre UK UKMO-HadCM3 96x 73 L19 25 United Kingdom Meteorological Office / Hadley Centre UK UKMO-HadGEM1 192x145 L38

3 Global Network of Surface Meteorological Stations which Monthly Mean Temperature Data Presented in the US NCDC Archives

4 Global Network of Surface Meteorological Stations which Monthly Precipitation Data Presented in the US NCDC Archives

5 Global Network of Surface Meteorological Stations which Monthly Max and Min Air Temperature Data Presented in the US NCDC Archives

6 Global Climate Regionalisation

7 One of Schematic Global Climate Regionalization (Carter, 2003)

8 Köppen Geiger Climatic Regions

9 Köppen Geiger Climatic Regions (according Beck et al., 2005)

10 Time Periods Used (and will be Used) for Comparison Analysis Without significant global trends 1 st period: nd period: rd period: With modern global trends 4 th period: (WMO reference period) 5 th period: Future Climate Changes 6 th period: th period: th period: th period: th period:

11 Köppen Climatic Regions over Europe 14 Köppen Climatic Regions

12 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of Europe N Short Abbreviation Full Mame Total Name Name of Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid 2 Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal 3 As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry 4 Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry 5 BWk CD Cold Desert 6 BWh HD Hot Desert 7 BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 16 Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 17 Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost ET PT Polar Tundra

13 Amounts of Stations by Max and Min Temperature over Koeppen Zones of Europe N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Name Name Koeppen Zone max min max min max min max min max min 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid 2 Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal 3 As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry 4 Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry 5 BWk CD Cold Desert 6 BWh HD Hot Desert 7 BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe 9 Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 16 Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 17 Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost ET PT Polar Tundra

14 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of Europe 01..BCC-CM1 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 10. ECHO-G 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM GFDL-CM2.1 1 EQ/FH 2 EQ/MO 3 EQ/SD 4 EQ/WD 5 CD 6 HD 7 CS HS 9 WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC WT/SD/SH WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC 15 WT/WD/SH 16 WT/WD/SW 17 WT/WD/SC SN/FH/SH SN/FH/SW SN/FH/SC SN/FH/EC 22 SN/SD/SH 23 SN/SD/SW 24 SN/SD/SC SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH 27 SN/WD/SW 28 SN/WD/SC 29 SN/WD/EC 30 PF PT GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 Stations T P

15 Köppen Climatic Regions over Asia 26 Köppen climatic regions

16 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of Asia N Short Abbreviation Full Name Total Name Name of Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

17 Amounts of Stations by Max and Min Temperatures over Koeppen Zones of Asia N Short Abbreviation Full Name Name Name of Koeppen Zone max min max min max min max min max min 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

18 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation 01..BCC-CM1 Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of Asia 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM 10. ECHO-G C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM GFDL-CM2.1 Stations EQ/FH EQ/MO EQ/SD EQ/WD CD HD CS HS WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC 12 WT/SD/SH WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC 15 WT/WD/SH WT/WD/SW WT/WD/SC 18 SN/FH/SH SN/FH/SW SN/FH/SC SN/FH/EC SN/SD/SH SN/SD/SW SN/SD/SC SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH SN/WD/SW SN/WD/SC SN/WD/EC PF 31 PT GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 T P

19 Köppen Climatic Regions over Africa 14 Köppen climatic regions

20 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of Africa N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Total Name Name Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

21 Amounts of Stations by Max and Min Temperature over Koeppen Zones of Africa N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Name Name Koeppen Zone max min max min max min max min max min 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

22 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of Africa 01..BCC-CM1 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 10. ECHO-G 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM2.0 1 EQ/FH EQ/MO EQ/SD EQ/WD CD HD CS HS WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC 12 WT/SD/SH WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC 15 WT/WD/SH WT/WD/SW 17 WT/WD/SC SN/FH/SH 19 SN/FH/SW 20 SN/FH/SC 21 SN/FH/EC 22 SN/SD/SH 23 SN/SD/SW 24 SN/SD/SC 25 SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH 27 SN/WD/SW 28 SN/WD/SC 29 SN/WD/EC 30 PF 31 PT 13. GFDL-CM GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 Stations T P

23 Köppen Climatic Regions over Australia 12 Köppen climatic regions

24 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of Australia N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Total Name Name Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid 2 Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 17 Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

25 Amount of Stations by Max and Min Temperature over Koeppen Zones of Australia N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Name Name Koeppen Zone max min max min max min max min max min 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid 2 Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 12 Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 17 Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

26 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of Australia 01..BCC-CM1 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 10. ECHO-G 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM GFDL-CM2.1 1 EQ/FH 2 EQ/MO EQ/SD EQ/WD CD HD CS HS WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC 12 WT/SD/SH WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC 15 WT/WD/SH WT/WD/SW 17 WT/WD/SC 18 SN/FH/SH 19 SN/FH/SW 20 SN/FH/SC 21 SN/FH/EC 22 SN/SD/SH 23 SN/SD/SW 24 SN/SD/SC 25 SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH 27 SN/WD/SW 28 SN/WD/SC 29 SN/WD/EC 30 PF 31 PT 14. GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 Stations T P

27 Köppen Climatic Regions over North America 25 Köppen climatic regions

28 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of North America N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Total Name Name Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost ET PT Polar Tundra

29 Amounts of Stations by Max and Min Temperature over Koeppen Zones of North America N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Name Name Koeppen Zone max min max min max min max min max min 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 18 Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Exremely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost ET PT Polar Tundra

30 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of North America 01..BCC-CM1 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 10. ECHO-G 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM GFDL-CM2.1 1 EQ/FH EQ/MO EQ/SD EQ/WD CD HD CS HS WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC WT/SD/SH WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC 15 WT/WD/SH WT/WD/SW 17 WT/WD/SC SN/FH/SH SN/FH/SW SN/FH/SC SN/FH/EC 22 SN/SD/SH 23 SN/SD/SW SN/SD/SC SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH SN/WD/SW SN/WD/SC SN/WD/EC 30 PF PT GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 Stations T P

31 Köppen Climatic Regions over South America 17 Köppen climatic regions

32 Amounts of Stations by Mean Temperature and Precipitation over Koeppen Zones of S. America N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Total Name Name Koeppen Zone T P T P T P T P T P 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 13 Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe. Extemely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

33 Amounts of Stations by Max and Min Temperature over Koeppen Zones of S.America N Short Abbreviation Full Name of Name Name Koeppen Zone max min maxmin maxmin maxmin maxmin 1 Af EQ/FH EQatorial, Fully Humid Am EQ/MO EQatorial, Monsoonal As EQ/SD EQatorial, Summer Dry Aw EQ/WD EQatorial, Winter Dry BWk CD Cold Desert BWh HD Hot Desert BSk CS Cold Steppe BSh HS Hot Steppe Cfa WT/FH/SH Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Hot Cfb WT/FH/SW Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Warm Cfc WT/FH/SC Warm Temperate, Fully Humid, Summer Cool Csa WT/SD/SH Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Hot Csb WT/SD/SW Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Warm Csc WT/SD/SC Warm Temperate, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 15 Cwa WT/WD/SH Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Hot Cwb WT/WD/SW Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Warm Cwc WT/WD/SC Warm Temperate, Winter Dry, Summer Cool Dfa SN/FH/SH SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Hot 19 Dfb SN/FH/SW SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Warm 20 Dfc SN/FH/SC SNow, Fully Humid, Summer Cool 21 Dfd SN/FH/EC SNow, Fully Humid, Extremely Continental 22 Dsa SN/SD/SH SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Hot 23 Dsb SN/SD/SW SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Warm 24 Dsc SN/SD/SC SNow, Summer Dry, Summer Cool 25 Dsd SN/ST/EC SNow, STeppe, Extemely Continental 26 Dwa SN/WD/SH SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Hot 27 Dwb SN/WD/SW SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Warm 28 Dwc SN/WD/SC SNow, Winter Dry, Summer Cool 29 Dwd SN/WD/EC SNow, Winter Dry, Extremely Continental 30 EF PF Polar Frost 31 ET PT Polar Tundra

34 Zone Number Koeppen Zone Abbreviation Model Gridpoint Amounts over Koeppen Climatic Zones of South America 01..BCC-CM1 02. BCCR-BCM CCSM3 04. CGCM3(T47) 05. CGCM3(T63) 06. CNRM-CM3 07. CSIRO-Mk CSIRO-Mk ECHAM5_MPI-OM C l i m a t i c M o d e l s 10. ECHO-G 11. FGOALS-g GFDL-CM GFDL-CM2.1 1 EQ/FH EQ/MO EQ/SD EQ/WD CD HD CS HS WT/FH/SH WT/FH/SW WT/FH/SC WT/SD/SH 13 WT/SD/SW WT/SD/SC WT/WD/SH WT/WD/SW WT/WD/SC SN/FH/SH 19 SN/FH/SW 20 SN/FH/SC 21 SN/FH/EC 22 SN/SD/SH 23 SN/SD/SW 24 SN/SD/SC 25 SN/ST/EC 26 SN/WD/SH 27 SN/WD/SW 28 SN/WD/SC 29 SN/WD/EC 30 PF 31 PT GISS-AOM 15. GISS-EH 16. GISS-ER 17. INGV-SXG INM-CM IPSL-CM MIROC3.2(mr) 21. MIROC3.2(hr) 22. MRI-CGCM PCM-NCAR 24. UKMO-HadCM3 25. UKMO-HadGEM1 Stations T P

35 First Part of Investigations on Climate Models Comparative Analysis

36 Notations of the Parameters Analysed in the First Part of Investigations σ, k X r ( m ) [ M:j:N ], ix ( α ) [ M:N ], i ( α ) s, k r ( m) Real measured (r or 0) and reproduced (m=1,2, 25 - model number) monthly (i=1,2 12) values and mean square deviation of meteorological parameter X (α) (1-T mean, 2 -T min, 3 - T max, 4 - Precip) for the meteorological station (or the model gridpoint) number s of the Köppen climate region (k) (if (s) symbol is absent - on this region area averaged) for the year (j) of the time period [M:N]. If symbol (j) is absent this time period averaged). s

37 Meteorological Parameters Subjected to the First Part of Climatic Models Comparison Analysis [1 5],i [1 5],i k kt σ (mean) ; r(m) (mean) T r ( m) ; [1 5],i kt Mean Values (min) ; r(m) [1 5],i (max) k T r(m) Mean Square Deviations [1 5],i k σ (min) T r ( m) ; [1 5],i k σ (max) T r ( m) ; ; [1 5],i P k r(m) [1 5],i kσ P r(m).. Real (r) and 22 model (m) values of 8 meteorological parameters for 12 months (i) of 5 historical 30-year periods [1-5] for each Köppen climatic regions (k) (over all continents) contain the necessary amount of stations and model gridpoints.

38 Indices Used in Comparative Analysis

39 Probability Density Functions for Regionally Averaged Mean, Max and Min Temperatures and Precipitation = 2 2 ) ( 2 ) ( ) ( 2 ] [ ] [ ] [ ] 9 [ exp 1 ) (. mean r i : mean i : mean i : mean i k T k r k Tr k r,, 90 61, 90 61, T T T T σ σ ρ π = 2 ) ( 2 ) ( ) ( 2 ) ( ] 9 [ ] [ ] 9 [ ] 9 [. 2.. / ln exp 1 r, 0 61, r, P P r, a P P a P i k i k i k i k r. P P π ρ Normal: Log-Normal:

40 Indices Used in Comparison Analysis of T mean, T min, T max and Precipitation ) I (1 Xm Xr = X m X r X r ; I (2) Xm Xr = abs( X m X r X r ) ; I (3) Xm Xr = abs( X m X r σ r ) ; I ( 4) 1990 ( ) ( ) [ [ 61:90],i mean [ 61: j: 90], i mean 2 exp ] [ 90] 1 61:, i mean for ktr ktm Tm = 1 ; [ 61: 90],i mean 2 k ( k σt r ) j = 1961 [ 61:90], i [ 61:j:90], i [ : ], 1 ( ln P ) ( ) = [ 1 exp [ ], ] i for P k r k m k m. 61:90 i = 2 ( a ) j 1961 k Pr I µ ( 4, ) µ=lnm ; M, a median and form-parameter of the lognormal Precip PDF.

41 I I (5) (6) Complex Comparison Indices Distance in probability density function spaces i α ( for X ) = R[ ρ ( X ) ρ ( X )] = ρ ( X ρ ( X [ ] r ρ r ( X ) ρ m ( X = ρ r ( X ) ln dx. i α (lat) ( for X ) = D ) m m KL r m X [ ρ ( X ) ρ ( X )] dx. Lateral Kullback-Leibler relative entropy (divergence) Symmetric Kullback-Leibler relative entropy (divergence) X r m m 2 ) ) I (7) (for i X α m ) = = D (sym) KL = D (lat) KL [ ] (lat) ρ ( X ) ρ ( X ) + D [ ρ ( X ) ρ ( X )]= r m ρ r ( X ) ρ ( X ) m ρ r ( X ) ln dx + ρ m ( X ) ln dx ρ ( X ) ρ ( X ) X m X KL m r r.

42 3-D View of R T (T m,σ m ) Surface RT 1,0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0, T e m p e ra tu re, C d e g re e s Р 1 Р 8 Р 15 Sigma T

43 3-D View of D KL (T m,σ m ) Surface D(KL) sym T 11,0 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0 18,0 18,5 19,0 19,5 20,0 Temperature, C degrees 20,5 21,0 21,5 22,0 0,5 1,7 1,1 Sigma T

44 Indices Used in Comparison Analysis of Model Mean Square Deviations of Meteorological Parameters. ) (for r r m m X X X X I (9) σ σ σ σ = ; ) ( ) ( abs for r r m m X X X X I (8) σ σ σ σ =

45 Integral Indices Used in Comparative Analysis = = 12 1 i ], ; [ ] : [ α α m i N M k m M N k X X (year) k I I = = k ], : [ ], : [ N 1 k α α m i M N k m i M N X k X i (spat) I S I = = = k ], ; [ ], : [ N 1 k 12 1 i α α m i N M k m i M N X k X (year) (spat) I S I

46 Koeppen Climatic Regions over Europe

47 Observed and 22 Modelled Seasonal Trajectories of Mean Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in Temperature (K degrees) Months

48 Seasonal Trajectories of the Symmetrical Kulbach-Leibler Relative Divergence Between Observed and 22 Modelled Mean Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in D(KL)sym Tmean Months

49 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectories of Min Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in Tmin, K degrees Months

50 Seasonal Trajectories of the Symmetrical Kulbach-Leibler Relative Divergence Between Observed and 22 Modelled Min Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in D(KL)sym, Tmin Months

51 Observed and Modeled Seasonal Trajectories of Max Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in Tmax, K degrees Months

52 Seasonal Trajectories of the Symmetrical Kulbach-Leibler Relative Divergence Between Observed and 22 Modelled Max Monthly Temperatures Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in D(KL)sym Tmax Months

53 Seasonal Trajectories of the Symmetrical Kulbach-Leibler Relative Divergence Between Observed and 22 Modelled Monthly Precipitation Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in D(KL)sim P months

54 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectories of Monthly Precipitation Averaged on the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe in Precipitation, mm/month Months

55 Integral Comparative Indices of Mean Temperature for WT/FH/SW Koeppen Climatic Region of Europe Models Indices I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I 7 I 8 1-BCM 0,0407 0, ,1158 3,7765 3,7381 8, ,6542 2, CCSR_MIROC_h 0,0170 0, ,4720 3,8806 3,5801 8, ,8965 1, CCSR_MIROC_m 0,0876 0, ,1455 7,7887 5, , ,5282 2, CGCM3-0,1014 0, ,7977 9,6406 5, , ,5036 3, CGCM3_h 0,0034 0,0179 4,1625 0,9208 1,8421 1,7387 3,0528 1, CNRM 0,0116 0,0396 9,3907 3,3824 3,8494 8, ,3323 2, CSIRO -0,0076 0,0205 4,7319 1,4793 1,7555 2,2409 4,2604 1, ECHAM -0,0155 0,0384 9,1833 3,5578 2,9471 4, ,2203 2, ECHOG 0,0172 0, ,9675 5,4121 4, , ,6491 2, GFDL20-0,2031 0, , ,9902 7, , ,3323 3, GFDL21-0,1763 0, , ,9331 7, , ,3283 3, GISS 0,0685 0, ,2621 6,6189 6, , ,6393 5, GISSEH 0,1191 0, ,5135 8,4595 6, , ,7642 1, GISSER -0,0561 0, ,6264 9,1212 5, , ,3703 3, HadCM3 0,0484 0, ,5262 4,4490 3,4344 5, ,0695 3, HadGEM1-0,0080 0, ,6086 6,1067 4, , ,6351 1, INM 0,0730 0, ,3594 6,2020 4, , ,0138 3, IPSL -0,0545 0, ,1321 5,3401 4, , ,4471 4, LASG -0,0278 0, ,8033 5,5597 3,7181 7, ,9423 2, MRI 0,0671 0, ,8886 6,7977 5, , ,3042 3, NCAR_CCSM3-0,0274 0, ,4189 5,0756 3,9155 7, ,6695 4, NCAR_PCM 0,0037 0,0375 8,9669 3,2643 3,0334 4,3439 9,0533 1,9136

56 Integral Comparative Indices of Min (upper table) and Max (lower table) Temperatures for WT/FH/SW Koeppen Climatic Zone of Europe Models Indices I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I 7 I 8 1-BCM 0,1839 0, ,7167 9,8310 6, , ,8130 3, CCSR_MIROC_h 0,1302 0, ,5001 9,3368 6, , ,3262 3, CCSR_MIROC_m 0,1848 0, ,2110 9,9203 6, , ,9226 2, CSIRO 0,0929 0, ,8637 6,2939 5, , ,0657 2, GISS 0,2057 0, ,3256 9,5729 7, , ,0810 5, INM 0,0490 0, ,1185 6,0828 3, , ,0551 3, NCAR_PCM 0,0946 0, ,4063 7,2650 5, , ,6901 2,3036 Models Indices I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I 7 I 8 1-BCM 0,0222 0, ,3256 4,7455 4, , ,8574 3, CCSR_MIROC_h 0,0821 0, ,1355 5,7551 4, , ,3847 2, CCSR_MIROC_m 0,1497 0, ,4670 8,9135 5, , ,3634 3, CSIRO 0,0600 0,0610 9,8027 3,4947 3, , ,3326 3, GISS 0,0417 0, ,3078 6,8136 6, , ,5352 5, INM 0,2079 0, ,1528 9,6473 5, , ,8178 4, NCAR_PCM 0,0719 0, ,0603 5,0965 3, , ,9254 2,9369

57 Integral Comparative Indices of Precipitation for WT/FH/SW Koeppen Climatic Region of Europe Models Indices I 1 I 2 I 3 I 4 I 5 I 6 I 7 I 8 1-BCM 4,0800 4,3023 4,3023 1,8531 0, , ,8702 3, CCSR_MIROC_h 4,2157 5,3023 5,3023 2,0349 0,8001 8, ,7785 2, CCSR_MIROC_m -4,8968 4,8968 4,8968 1,3719 0,5740 3,7411 6,0721 5, CGCM3 2,9621 4,7941 4,7941 1,7007 0,6710 6,8315 9,8738 2, CGCM3_h -3,1004 4,1468 4,1468 1,2747 0,6872 5,3894 8,0776 5, CNRM -1,6673 3,0712 3,0712 0,7822 0,6861 5,3719 7,8764 5, CSIRO -0,7489 3,9940 3,9940 1,0578 0,6006 3,5391 5,5662 4, ECHAM -4,5208 4,5965 4,5965 2,5553 0,8218 3,1675 6,7855 3, ECHOG 0,2191 5,5876 5,5876 2,0497 0,7448 6, ,3632 3, GFDL20 10, , ,4970 3,8476 0, , ,4163 4, GFDL21 7,5837 8,5050 8,5050 3,2481 1, , ,8349 3, GISS 4,4031 5,4678 5,4678 2,1611 0, , ,2307 3, GISSEH -8,1635 8,1635 8,1635 4,5211 1, , ,7090 8, GISSER 4,1581 5,6677 5,6677 2,1650 0,8197 9, ,3957 3, HadCM3-3,5147 3,5147 3,5147 1,1576 0,5682 2,3073 4,1941 4, HadGEM1 1,4587 5,1253 5,1253 1,6384 0,5902 6,7467 9,6363 2, INM -6,0943 6,0943 6,0943 2,8821 0,7737 5,6443 9,9566 5, IPSL 3,3040 5,5518 5,5518 1,7225 0,6166 6,2613 9,3027 3, LASG -7,4776 7,4776 7,4776 3,6027 1, , ,1620 7, MRI -5,0185 5,0185 5,0185 2,2572 0,7827 3,5674 6,5187 4, NCAR_CCSM3-2,0640 3,4460 3,4460 0,8010 0,4520 2,1319 3,4922 3, NCAR_PCM -3,4329 3,7557 3,7557 1,0837 0,4982 2,4460 4,1679 4,6004

58 Second Part of Investigations on Climate Models Comparative Analysis

59 [M:j:N], i k Linear Regressions of Real (r) and Modeled (m) Monthly Temperatures and Precipitation (i) on Altitude and Coordinates within Each Köppen Climatic Region for Each Year (j) of Five Historical Time Periods T = a + a h + a ϕ + a λ (mean) r(m) [M:j:N], i k ( Tmean ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmean ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmean ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmean ) 0, r ( m ) k h, r ( m ) k ϕ, r ( m ) k λ, r ( m ) r(m) r(m) r(m) ; [M:j:N],i k (min) [M:j:N], i ( Tmin ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmin ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmin ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmin ) T = a + a h + a ϕ + a λ r ( m) k 0, r ( m) k h, r ( m) r(m) k ϕ, r ( m) r(m) k λ, r ( m) r(m) ; [M:j:N], i k (max) [M:j:N], i ( Tmax ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmax ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmax ) [M:j:N], i ( Tmax ) T = a + a hm:j:n + a ϕ + a λ r ( m ) k 0, r ( m ) k h, r ( m ) r(m) k ϕ, r ( m ) r(m) k λ, r ( m ) r(m) ; [M:j:N], i k P r = a + a h + [M:j:N], i ( P) [M:j:N], i ( P ) [M:j:N], i ( P ) [M:j:N], i ( P ) ( m) k 0, r ( m) k h, r ( m) r(m) k ϕ, r ( m) r(m) k λ, r ( m) r(m) a ϕ + a λ ; a - Regression coefficients h, φ, λ Altitude, latitude and longitude of stations or model gridpoints

60 Notations of the Parameters Analysed in the Second Part of Investigations ka [ M:N ], i ( α ) k aβ, [ M:j:N ], i ( α ) β, r ( m) σ (r,m) Values of the four regression coefficients a β (β=0,1,2,3) calculated using real measured data (r or 0) or model reproduced (m=1,2, 25 - model number) data for month (i) (i=1,2 12) for the year (j) of time period [M:N] and the mean square deviations of these regression coefficients for meteorological parameters α (1-T mean, 2 -T min, 3 - T max, 4 - Precip) over the Köppen climate region (k). If simbol j is absent this period years averaged.

61 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectory of T mean Altitudinal Gradient over the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe 0, ,004 Centigrades/m 0-0,004-0,008-0,012-0,016 Monthes

62 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectory of the T mean Latitudinal Gradient over the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of urope Centigrades/grad.lat -0,5-1 -1,5-2 -2,5 Months

63 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectory of T mean Longitude Gradient over the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe 1,2 0,8 Centigrades/gra.lon 0,4 0-0,4-0, M onths

64 Observed and Modelled Seasonal Trajectory of Constant in Regression Model for T mean over the WT/FH/SW Köppen Climatic Region of Europe Centigrades M onths

65 Thank you for the attention

Supplementary Figure S1: Uncertainty of runoff changes Assessments of. R [mm/yr/k] for each model and the ensemble mean.

Supplementary Figure S1: Uncertainty of runoff changes Assessments of R [mm/yr/k] for each model and the ensemble mean. 1 Supplementary Figure S2: Schematic diagrams of methods The top panels show uncertainty