Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS)

Transcription

1 Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Christopher J. Mertens (PI) NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA NASA Headquarters Brief, Washington, DC November 17, 2010 Contributors: Barbara Grajewski, NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH Joe Kunches, NOAA/SPWC, Boulder, CO Matthias Meier, DLR, Cologne, Germany

2 NAIRAS Team Chris Mertens (PI), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA Cosmic ray transport; integration of NAIRAS models and data; V&V Kent Tobiska (Co- I), Space Environment Technologies, Inc, Pacific Palisades, CA Distributed data nerve center and conduit for input data models output data Brian Kress (Co- I), Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH Real- time magnetospheric transport / geomagnetic shielding model Mike Wiltberger and Stan Solomon (Co- I), NCAR/HAO, Boulder, CO Benchmark MHD magnetospheric magnetic fields Joe Kunches (Collaborator), NOAA/Space Environment Center, Boulder, CO Guidance on research- to- operations; interaction with commercial aviation industry Barbara Grajewski (Collaborator), CDC/NIOSH, Cincinnati, OH Aircraft radiation measurement data for V&V; epidemiological studies Steve Blattnig (Collaborator), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA Cosmic ray nuclear interactions; transport physics Xiaojing Xu (Collaborator), SSAI, Hampton, VA Scientific programming and data visualization tools Ryan Norman (Post- Doc Fellow), NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA Cosmic ray nuclear interactions; transport physics

3 Outline Goals/objectives of NAIRAS Basics of aircraft radiation exposure Medical research and collaboration with NIOSH Development of SpWx aircraft radiation requirements / Role of NAIRAS R2O: NAIRAS prototype development O2R: Emerging science questions and synergies NAIRAS end- user products and societal benefits NAIRAS V&V plan and vision for the future

4 Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Earth System Models Radiation Dose Rates: HZETRN (physics-based) Near-Earth Space Environment Badhwar Empirical Cutoff Rigidity ( IGRF+TS05) Physics-based Cutoff Rigidity (LFM/CMIT+SEP-trajectory) Earth Observations Near-Earth Space Environment NASA/ACE NASA/HEAO-3 NOAA/GOES Assimilated Atmospheric Atmospheric Depth (NCEP/GFS) Ground-Based Neutron Count Monitors Predictions/Forecasts Ionizing Radiation Nowcast 4-D Effective Dose 4-D Differential Flux NAIRAS Distributed Network System High-Performance Computer Systems Server Interface Operational and Archival Databases Differential Particle Flux HZE Particles (A=5-56) Light-Ions (A=1-4) Neutrons Pions and Muons Electromagnetic Cascasde Particles Observations, Parameters & Products Decision Support Systems, Assessments, Management Actions NAIRAS decision support tool for NOAA/SEC space weather forecasts, warnings, and advisories NAIRAS available at NOAA/ADD experimental aviation-related weather forecasts, observations, and analysis Specific analyses to support the decision making Predict real-time radiation exposure at commercial airline altitudes (includes background GCR and SEP events) Provide accumulated radiation exposures for representative set of domestic, international, and polar routes Specific Decisions / Actions Limit aircrew flight hours to within recommended annual and career limits Alter route and/or altitude during SEP events Value & Benefits to Society Improvements in the decisionmaking, decisions, and actions First-ever, data-driven, real-time prediction of biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes Quantitative and qualitative benefits from the improved decisions Comprehensive database of radiation dose rates to formulate recommended annual and career limits to ionizing radiation exposure Comprehensive database of radiation dose rates for airlines to assess cost/risk of polar routes Real-time prediction of radiation exposure levels to enable optimal balance between airline cost and air traveler health risk during solar storm (SEP) events Improve understanding of biological effects of atmospheric ionizing radiation on aircrew and passengers through collaboration of epidemiological studies by NIOSH

5 NAIRAS Decision Support System Decision Support System First Decision Support System of its kind Real- time, global prediction of biologically harmful radiation exposure for the commercial aviation industry Commercial aircrew are classified as radiation workers Aircrew are the only group of occupational radiation workers exposed to unquantified and undocumented levels of radiation Current guidelines for maximum public and prenatal exposure is easily exceeded (1 msv) on high- latitude commercial routes during a single solar radiation storm event or for frequent flyer exposure to high- latitude background levels (~ 10 flights/yr) End- User Organizations NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC): national and international provider of space weather forecasts FAA, commercial airline companies, and pilots

6 NAIRAS Decision Support System Decision Analysis and Action Forecast, warnings, and advisories regarding radiation risks to aircrew and passengers Limit aircrew flight hours to within recommended occupational radiation exposure limits (annual and career limits) Alter flight paths and/or cruising altitudes to mitigate radiation exposure during a solar radiation storm event Societal Value and Benefit Reduce aircrew and passenger risk to biologically harmful radiation that can lead to fatal cancer and other unwanted health outcomes such as reproductive disorder and prenatal injury Enable an optimal balance to be achieved between airline cost and air traveler health risk during solar radiation storms Improve understanding of biological effects from radiation exposure by providing a long- term, comprehensive database of global radiation exposure levels for large- scale epidemiological studies

7 Cosmic Ray Interactions

8 Ways to damage DNA

9 Unit of absorbed dose: 1 Gray == 1 J/kg Units Overview Radiation weighting factor: w R Sievert = Gray x w R ICRP estimate: 1 in 20,000 risk of fatal cancer per 1mSv dose (lifetime). This is the same risk as the risk of accidental death in industries not associated with radiation

10 Radiation Doses Chest x- ray ~.1 msv USA background ~ 4 msv/yr USA aircrew domestic ~ 4 msv/yr Death > 3 Sv (instantaneous) ICRP Public/prenatal annual limit < 1 msv/yr ICRP Radiation worker limit < 20mSv/yr

11 Occupational and High- Latitude Exposure Estimate (Wilson et al., 1995) Exposure Conditions Annual (msv) Exceptional a (msv) (February 1956) Occupational: Fuel cycle workers All workers Astronaut b ~ 1000 Air crew (500 hr): Mach 0.85 Mach 2.4 Mach 3.2 Mach 5.0 ~ 7 ~ 10 ~ 13 ~ 15 ~ 5 ~ 60 ~ 100 ~ 130 Passengers (Mach 2.4): 1 round trip/yr 1 round trip/wk ~ 0.16 ~ 8 ~ 60 ~ 60 a No attempt to evade exposure b With 5- yr career limit assumed

12 GCR Exposure ICRP Public/Prenatal

13 Aircraft Radiation Exposure Medical Research Cosmic rays can directly break DNA strands in biological tissue, or produce chemically active radicals in tissue that alter the cell function [Wilson et al., 2005, 2003] Both can lead to cancer Other adverse health effects include, but are not limited to, reproductive disorder and prenatal injury [Lauria et al., 2006; Waters et al., 2000; Aspholm et al., 1999] Because aircrew total career dose is received is low doses per flight, and accumulated slowly over the length of a flying career, the direct evidence that a person can develop cancer as a result of cosmic radiation is inconclusive Other lifestyle risk factors exist over a flying career However, radiation protection community accepts the Linear No Threshold (LNT) theory Every radiation exposure will have an effect on human health

14 NIOSH/NAIRAS Collaboration update Barbara Grajewski, Ph.D. 11/17/10 Current Collaborations Current Findings The findings and conclusions in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

15 (Grajewski) Flight attendants may be at increased risk for adverse reproductive outcomes and certain cancers Studies have also reported cancer excesses among pilots Air cabin exposures with potential health impact include cosmic ionizing radiation and circadian rhythm disruption NIOSH has a research program to address these issues NIOSH studies include the first studies to assess career exposure to Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events and retrospectively estimate dose based on records of flights flown by each crewmember

16 NI OSH Flight Crew Research Program Health Effect Studies Reproductive Health Ovulatory Function/Menstrual Cycle Pregnancy Outcomes Exposure Studies Radiation Cosmic Radiation Retrospective Estimation of Dose Cancer Mortality in Flight Attendants and Pilots Breast Cancer Incidence among Flight Attendants Cytogenetic Effects among Pilots Other Respiratory Symptoms Effects of Downsizing on Mortality Cabin Air Quality Cabin Environmental Exposures Bioaerosol Levels in Aircraft Other Factors Physical Work Demands Psychosocial Work Conditions Circadian Rhythm Disruption Completed Ongoing NAIRAS Collaboration

17 NIOSH Exposure Assessment of US Commercial Pilots Poster 6/10 Soc Epi Res; manuscript in review FIRST STUDY OF US commercial pilot career exposure profile from individual flight segments: Cosmic radiation Solar energetic particle events Chronic circadian disruption FINDINGS A median pilot incurred 34.4 msv GCR and flew through 6 SEPs in 28 y flying 1.92 msv in the last study year Exposure metrics increased markedly IMPLICATIONS No dose limits for US crew Median pilot would trigger EU radiation monitoring (>1mSv/y) A pregnant female pilot could exceed ICRP guidelines for pregnant radiation workers High- exposed pilots at increased risk Image courtesy of Kanzelhöhe Observatory

18 Grajewski NAIRAS data can be expected to improve epidemiologic studies of flight exposures markedly compared to current methodology assessment of this occupational group

19 Aircraft Radiation Exposure Recommendations and Actions Europe EU Directive 96/29/EURATOM (1996) Legal regulations on radiation protection of aircrew implemented into national law with EU member states by 2000 Exposures must be assessed if 1 msv/yr is likely to be exceeded 6 msvaction level o Individual record keeping and medical surveillance required Monitoring recommended under 6 msv/yr German implementation o Operational GCR radiation exposure assessment using approved code o No approved operational SEP radiation exposure assessment o Some airlines interested in concomitant radiation measurements Japan State regulations recommend airlines try to keep aircrew exposure below 5 msv/yr, which is the exposure dose limit for other occupationally exposed workers in Japan

20 Aircraft Radiation Exposure Recommendations and Actions USA ICRP recommendations (< 20 msv/yr, < 1 msv during pregnancy) Pregnant crewmember no more than 0.5 msv in any month (FAA recommendation) Current development of SpWx/aircraft radiation requirements Radiation measurements/predictions CPWG SpWx User Needs Radiation assessment ICAO WMO SpWx User Requirements FAA SpWx AWG User Needs ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization FAA NOAA/ SWPC

21 Radiation and Commercial Aviation (Kunches) Airlines became increasingly concerned with radiation w/opening of polar routes (2001). United, for example, has flown almost 12,000 polar flights to present. International aviation authorities have strived to understand impacts of radiation to passengers and air crew. In 2006, FAA and partner states established the Cross Polar Working Group

22 Cross Polar Working Group (CPWG) (Kunches) The 10 th meeting of the CPWG was held at ICAO November 3-5, 2010 The user needs for space weather services were tentatively ratified, pending agreement by Russia The user needs explicitly state the need to specify and predict the radiation environment for commercial aviation NAIRAS is exactly designed to provide the information required by the CPWG mandate

23 Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) Model Real- time Neutron Monitor Data (e.g., IZMIRAN and LOMNICKY) NOAA/GOES +NASA/ACE Data Cutoff Rigidity (IGRF) Fit to Climax HP Spectral Fitting Magnetospheric Magnetic Field (e.g., T05) Effects on Cutoff Rigidity NASA/ACE Solar Wind and IMF Data HZETRN + Dosimetry Atmospheric Density NCEP/GFS Atmospheric Dose and Dose Equivalent

24 NAIRAS Prototype Operational Distributed Network System Architecture

25 NAIRAS I/O Requirements and Data Definitions Note: Redundant sources for all input data

26 GCR Fluence Spectra Ground- based neutron monitor count rates related to incident GCR flux Use high- latitude, real- time neutron monitor count rates to derive heliospheric potential (HP) Fit real- time neutron count rates to Steady- state Fokker- Planck transport to 1 AU HP embedded in diffusion coefficient Validated by NASA/ACE

27 SEP Fluence Spectra GOES and ACE observes proton/alpha fluxes and which we need do derive the fluence rates and spectral characteristics For the Halloween storms a single power- law did not work Used a double power law spectrum as suggested by Mewaldt, 2003 Includes a corona and flare seed population Require the power- law functions and first derivatives to be continuous at merge energy

28 Geomagnetic Shielding Severe geomagnetic storms suppress geomagnetic shielding allowing SEPs access to mid- latitudes. Due primarily to a build up of the ring current Shock arrival can also be significant Particles with rigidities below the a cutoff value cannot access that point in space We compute these using the TS05 storm magnetic field model and a particle tracing code During the Halloween storms we find 1 and 0.5 GV suppression during main phase and shock arrival, respectively

29 High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport (HZETRN) code solves the coupled linear Boltzmann transport equations Ionization energy loss Elastic neutron- neutron scattering Nuclear absorption and fragmentation HZETRN Atmospheric Transport

30 SEP Aircraft Radiation Exposure High- Latitude Flights Roughly three SEP events per solar cycle with sufficient flux and energy to significantly increase atmospheric radiation above GCR February 1956 Event (Wilson et al., 1995) Commercial: ~ 5 msv October 1989 Event (AMS & SolarMetrics, 2007) Commercial: ~ 2 msv Halloween 2003 Event (Mertens et al., 2010) Commercial (11 km, 10- hr): ~ 0.2 msv Executive (15 km, 10- hr): ~ 0.4 msv January 2005 Event (NAIRAS; Copeland et al., 2008) Commercial (11 km, 10- hr): ~ 1 msv Executive (15 km, 10- hr): ~ 4 msv

31 SEP Aircraft Radiation Exposure Emerging Science Questions Halloween 2003 Event: Complexity of simultaneous processes Largest geomagnetic storm of solar cycle 23 Forbush decrease Ground- Level Enhancements (GLE) Anisotropic SEP distribution

32

33 SEP Ion Flux High- Energy Tail Emerging Science Questions SEP ion spectral fluence rates unconstrained by measurements > ~ 500 MeV/n This implies large uncertainties in atmospheric dose rates Retrospective SEP dose calculations differ by order of magnitude [Dyer et al., 2009] Need ~ 1 GeV detectors on GOES Can available world- wide network of real- time neutron monitor data be used to constrain high- energy tail for robust, real- time applications? Are neutron monitor yield functions sufficiently accurate? Initially compare with neutron monitor count rates not used in the fit Need future onboard radiation measurements for definitive V&V Potential improvement in spectral fits by combining satellite ion flux measurements with neutron monitor data: Protons: ~ 100 kev to ~ 10 GeV Alphas: ~ 1 MeV to ~ 5 GeV

34 SEP Ion Flux Anisotropy Emerging Science Questions Large anisotropies during January 20, 2005 event [Matthia et al., 2009; Plainaki et al., 2007] Neutron monitor site at Tibet (~ 14 GV) measured GLE of 2.4%, indicating sufficiently large number of ~ 14 GeV protons! Tibet only equatorial neutron monitor site to observe GLE! Anisotropies persisted for more than 12- hours Peak incident SEP ion flux and subsequent atmospheric radiation dose occurred in southern hemisphere in first few hours of the event Can available world- wide network of real- time neutron monitor data be used to fit SEP ion flux spatial distribution for robust, real- time applications?

35 The Role of Geomagnetic Effects on SEP Aircraft Radiation Exposure Companion NAIRAS papers: Space Weather journal, 2010 Storm- time variation of geomagnetic cutoff rigidity: Kress et al. Influence of storm- time cutoffs on SEP aircraft dose: Mertens et al.

36 Halloween 2003 Geomagnetic Storm Cutoff Latitude of ~ 20 MeV protons TS05 cutoff latitude accuracy: ~ 2- degrees TS05 cutoff accuracy significantly better LFM/MHD code 2- degree cutoff uncertainty in latitude can translate into factor ~2 or greater aircraft dose uncertainty

37 Flight Path Comparison Geomagnetic Effects LHR- JFK flight path Significant differences because flight nears or crosses the open/closed field line boundary Geomagnetic effects introduce a factor ~ 2 or greater variation in dose ORD- PEK flight path Limited differences since both models include passage into polar cap Significant dosage is seen in both cases

38 Geomagnetic Effects on SEP Dose Emerging Science Questions How can the accuracy of storm- time geomagnetic cutoff rigidities be improved, especially along the open- closed magnetosphere boundary? Can NOAA/POES real- time proton flux measurements be used in a data assimilation capacity to better constrain the cutoff model? Can non- uniform grids, such as the distorted spherical grid, better resolve cutoff variation with latitude? What is the dependence of local cutoff rigidity on altitude and solid angle and how do they map to dose variations? Vertical cutoffs are calculated at one altitude Resolving altitude and solid angular dependence in real- time is numerically impractical Does Stormer theory provide a sufficiently accurate altitude- angle scaling law? Will LFM- RCM- TING model improve cutoff calculations? What is the influence of short time- scale magnetospheric dynamics on atmospheric radiation exposure?

39 Time- Resolved GCR Model Emerging Science Questions Can the physics- based Badhwar model be reformulated to take advantage of satellite solar wind and IMF measurements? How can GCR models be improved to more accurately account for Forbush decreases? What is the missing physics?

40 NAIRAS Space/Earth Science Synergy GCR Influence on Strat/Trop Chemistry. Include Ionization Rates in WACCM (Jackman)

41 NAIRAS Planetary Science Synergy GCR ionization peak consistent with Cassini- Huygens electron density measurements GCR enable reasonable modeling of electron density profile Aerosol layers exist at ionization peaks on Titan Does this mean its possible that GCR ionization plays a role on cloud formation and Climate variability on Earth?

42 Web- Based Products Google NAIRAS to find public website Initial real- time demonstration (see ) Tabular Effective Dose Rate Latitude Bands Representative Polar Route Representative Flights Indicator (NSWP Assessment Report, FCM- R ) Graphics Products Global Effective Dose Rate Representative Flight Path Tools

43 T05Storm

44

45

46

47 NAIRAS: Societal Benefits Economic [DOC (NOAA/SWPC) Report, 2004] Typical cost savings from US- China cross- polar route ~ $35k- $45k per flight compared to previous non- polar route However, rerouting polar flight can cost up to $100k per flight is fuel stops and layovers are necessary FAA issued radiation advisory during Halloween 2003 storm and one major airline rerouted six polar flights, which included fuel stops. This cost the airline as much as $600k Halloween 2003 commercial aircraft radiation dose was not close to ICRP public/prenatal recommended limits and NAIRAS could have saved the above airline as much as $600k Public Health Radiation levels during January 20, 2005 event were sufficient to exceed recommended ICRP public/prenatal and NAIRAS could have provided flight operational guidance to minimize radiation risks e.g., reproductive disorders and prenatal injury, in addition to increased risk of cancer Aviation industry organization guidance to minimize radiation risk to commercial aircrew Broad societal First real- time, global, data- driven prediction of aircraft radiation exposure including both GCR and SEP Contribute to improved understanding of the effects radiation exposure on human health

48 NAIRAS Current Status Model Development Status Prototype development anticipated to be complete in mid First real- time demo presented at the annual NOAA/SWPC- sponsored Space Weather Workshop (google NAIRAS) Initial V&V with aircraft radiation measurements and benchmark Monte Carlo model simulations Transition- to- Operations (NOAA National Weather Service) Initial discussion NOAA/SWPC Director at Space Weather Workshop in April 2010 NOAA/SWPC enthusiastically embraces NAIRAS as a viable candidate for operations at the National Weather Service. However, a robust verification and validation (V&V) program is needed as part of the transition to operations activity in order to demonstrate the robustness and efficacy of the NAIRAS model over the full dynamic range of space weather conditions. short & long- range V&V plan with bold vision for future

49 NAIRAS V&V Plan Comparisons with historical data (discussed later) New onboard aircraft radiation measurements (discussed later) NAIRAS/SOFIA Collaboration (background provided by Pam Marcum) AMES/DLR SOFIA (Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy Boeing 747; ~1000 hrs/yr; various lat/lon/altitudes, reaching over 40kft; two decades of measurements The SOFIA mission provides an extraordinary collaborative opportunity between the Astrophysics, Heliophysics, and Applied Science communities, through the addition of radiation instruments on the SOFIA aircraft, to conduct science investigations and NAIRAS V&V over two solar cycles. These long- term measurements, combined with the extensive altitude range, will enable solar cycle modulation and cutoff rigidity effects to be separated out. As a result, the fundamental mechanisms and cross sections that produce the showers of secondary particles can be quantitatively assessed. The SOFIA mission provides an unprecedented opportunity to conduct physics- based V&V of the NAIRAS model. Observations to chase SEPs!!

50 NAIRAS/DLR- TEPC Comparisons

51 NAIRAS/SOFIA Collaboration DLR (Meier) TEPC Bubble detector Semiconductor detectors AMES (Straum, Zeitlin) Charged particle and neutron spectrometers Leverage off space radiation program

52 Equipment in operation 1 DLR (Meier) TEPC: + tissue equivalent material + temporal resolution (dose rate) - expensive - delicate electronics Bubble Detector: + no electronic reader required + sensitive to high LET only + inexpensive - no temporal resolution

53 Equipment in operation 2 DLR (Meier) Liulin FM: + small & robust + temporal resolution (dose rate) - dose conversion required - electronic reader required Liulin 6G: + display for dose & dose rate + USB interface - dose conversion required - sensitive to shock & vibration

54 Flight routes by DLR during the solar minimum ( ) -170 DLR (Meier)

55 NAIRAS V&V and Data Assimilation Plan Model Improvements Uncertainty Characterization NAIRAS Model Model Improvements Uncertainty Characterization Kalman Filter Kalman Filter Physics V&V NASA- DLR SOFIA Real- Time Data Assimilation Dosimetry V&V Historical Data V&V Two decades 1000 hr/yr High- altitudes Latitude Surveys Level 2 Level 2 SET Data Ingest Gateway Level 0 Level 0 Level 0 Meas. Phase I Phase II Phase III DLR NIOSH Neutron/charged particle Spectrometers dosimeters Single Flights Tech. Demo FedEx Rep. Continuous Flights Inter- calibration Airdat/TAMDAR Continuous Global Flights Data Assim. Airdat/TAMDAR FedEx/Comm. EURO- DOSE Model CRESSE ICRP/ ICRU PLANET COSMIC (Titan)

56 NAIRAS Vision for the Future NAIRAS/SOFIA Collaboration SOFIA is a NASA Astrophysics Division mission, which will observe astronomical- based infrared radiation from a telescope onboard a Boeing 747 aircraft, with operations planned for ~ 1000 hr/yr for nearly two decades Propose to include radiation measurements on SOFIA aircraft for NAIRAS physics V&V Opportunity to enhance the science return from SOFIA and provide an unparalleled opportunity to further probe the fundamental mechanisms that govern cosmic ray transport and interactions within the atmosphere NAIRAS Path to Real- time, Global, Data Assimilation of In- Flight Radiation Measurements (within a decade) Phase I (1-2 yrs): Single- flight radiation measurements on FedEx for European, polar, and cross country domestic flights; hardware technology demonstration; real- time data/model system architecture design Phase II (2-5 yrs) : Continuous in- flight radiation measurements on a small number of routes; integration into existing TAMDAR system; automation of radiation measurements and interface with NAIRAS; development of data assimilation techniques Phase III (3-5 yrs): Extend automated measurements to global distribution; implement real- time data assimilations of real- time radiation measurements into NAIRAS predictions NAIRAS Funding Needs NAIRAS/SOFIA collaboration: radiation instrumentation, measurements, and data analysis V&V and implementation of NAIRAS vision for real- time, global, data assimilation of in- flight radiation measurements Research- to- operations activities

57 SWPC Research Bridging the Gap Between Research and Operations Taking advantage of research funded by other agencies Partnering with agencies and directing research Selecting research results that may have operational utility Evaluating, testing, modifying, improving upon the models Partnering with NASA CCMC, CISM, AFRL, and NRL Moving the models toward operations Partnering with AFWA and NCAR to develop a Test- bed NSF NASA DOD CCMC CISM AFRL NRL R2O and O2R AFWA NCAR Basic Research Applied Research Test- Bed Transition Operations

58 Space Weather Prediction Test- bed (Kunches) Goal To accelerate the transition of research models and data streams into operational products and services in order to meet evolving customer requirements for space weather observation and prediction Jointly established by NOAA/SWPC and Air Force Weather Agency. Initially based at SWPC in Boulder operational in FY2011 NAIRAS would use the Test- bed infrastructure 58

59 Backup Slides

60 Atmospheric Radiation Transport and Dosimetry Renewed Interest and Concern. Why? The highly ionizing components of atmospheric radiations are found to be more biologically damaging than previously assumed. The associated relative biological effectiveness for fatal cancer has been increased [ICRU 1986; ICRP 1991]. Recent studies on developmental injury in mice embryos indicate large relative biological effectiveness for protection in prenatal exposures [Jiang et al., 1994]. Flight crews are logging greatly increased hours [Bramlitt, 1985; Wilson and Townsend, 1988; Friedberg et al., 1989; Barish, 1990]. Airline crew members are now classified as radiation workers [McMeekin, 1990; ICRP 1991].

61 Global distribution of dose equivalent rate (msv/1000 hr) predicted by the parametric AIR model at 12 km for solar maximum conditions (year 2000) of cycle 23. Aircrew logging hours on high- latitude flights can reach ~ 70% of recommended NCRP annual dose limit

62 Global distribution of dose equivalent rate (msv/1000 hr) predicted by the parametric AIR model at 12 km for solar minimum conditions (year 1996) of cycle 23. Aircrew logging hours on high- latitude flights can exceed recommended NCRP annual dose limit

63

64 Effective Dose for Halloween 2003 SEP [10/29 (2100 UT) 10/31 (2400 UT)] T05 Storm Field: October 29, 2003 (2100 UT)

65

66 Current collaborations Reproductive Study Collaborations To NAIRAS: benchmarking data from ~3600 NIOSH ovulatory function flight attendant flight segments (2011) To NIOSH: NAIRAS help with SEP effective dose estimates for reproductive outcomes study ( ) Cancer Study Collaboration To NIOSH: geomagnetic latitudes used in descriptive Radiation Exposure Assessment Collaboration To NAIRAS: historical dose comparison data from NIOSH Dose equivalent data from 32 NIOSH commercial survey flights using tissue-equivalent proportional counters (TEPCs) (2010)

67 Research at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Safeguarding the Advanced Technologies of the World

68 Test Bed Concept weather models to maximize the utility of solar wind and CME data for extended forecast and warnings Solar Wind Disturbance Propagation Model Geomagnetic storm predictions go from ~1 hour to 18hr - 4 days Geospace Response Model Will replace limited value global predictions with actionable regional forecasts and warnings Energetic Particle Transport Model Model to predict radiation storm peak intensity, timing, and spectrum; no models currently exist! NAIRAS could be improved by this model transition to operations operations & maintenance R&D transition to operations Research and Development (R&D) transition to operations O&M O&M FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016+ O&M includes Operation to Research (O2R) feedback to continuing R&D

69 Future Vision for Space Weather Research: WSA- Enlil+Radiation: Predicting Proton Events Hours to Days in Advance. NAIRAS linkage 10 hrs 20 hrs 30 hrs Magnetosphere Model: conditioned by the interaction of the Solar wind and Earth's magnetic field IDEA: Integrated Dynamics Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM)