The Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery.

Transcription

1 The Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery. Andrew Watkins National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology (Member: WMO CAgM ET on the Impact of Climate Risks in Vulnerable Areas; Agrometeorological Monitoring and Coping Strategies) International Workshop on the Content, Communication and Use of Weather and Climate Products and Services for Sustainable Agriculture, Toowoomba, Queensland, May 2009

2 Introduction What is the Water and the Land (WATL) project? The WATL project and survey What the users told us: surprises? How this compares to what can be done Final products Conclusions

3 What is the Water and the Land (WATL) project? The Water and the Land (WATL) pages present an integrated suite of information for people involved in primary production, natural resource management, industry, trade and commerce.

4 Sample WATL products

5 Sample WATL products

6 Sample WATL products

7 Sample WATL products

8 Sample WATL products

9 Sample WATL products

10 Sample WATL products

11 Sample WATL products

12 Sample WATL products

13 Sample WATL products Rainfall forecasts - Web accesses April 2009: 373,700 access 1,615,538 views Seasonal Outlooks Web accesses: 71,068

14 How we obtain feedback Bureau is constantly seeing feedback on all aspects of it operations; weather through to climate Feedback on Agricultural matters comes from: direct one on one communication at field days Primary Industry Steering Committee meetings consulting directly with stakeholders seasonal telephone surveys to name but a few

15 WATL/Managing Climate Variability Survey Land and Water Australia s Managing Climate Variability (MCV) program funded WATL to develop new climate products In late 2007 the MCV/WATL project conducted an online survey to determine if a suite of proposed products would match with user needs for seasonal forecasts Both farmers and natural resource managers were asked to offer input 499 people responded to the survey at least in part, with 334 completing the full 64 questions

16 Survey results

17 Survey results

18 Survey results Most wanted: Rain, RRate, Frost, then Temp, ETo Least wanted: SST

19 Survey results Seasonal Rainfall is the key, adaptation and change of practice to work with the changes follows the change in patterns. Monthly updates to seasonal forecasts When the rain is going to fall. Pointless having a forecast that says average rainfall and it all falls at the end of the forecast period Most wanted: Rain, RRate, Frost, then Temp, ETo Least wanted: SST

20 Survey results Most wanted: March, April, Sept. Least wanted: Dec, Jan.

21 Survey results The timing of rainfall is very important, especially the timing of the "break". This knowledge would enable decisions to be reached re dry sowing Growing season rainfall, spread and useful amounts Most wanted: March, April, Sept. Least wanted: Dec, Jan.

22 Survey results For those that tended not use seasonal forecasts

23 Survey results For those that tended not use seasonal forecasts Whilst it is possible to make regional predictions, it is not possible to predict the exact location of rainfall events; increasingly historical models are proving inadequate for making predictions, and management decisions are also based on the particular situation on my property and in the market at which my cattle are aimed. Probabilities of above or below average rain are too close to 50% to be useful

24 Text answers what products/advice do people use apart from the Bureau of Meteorology? Longpaddock Moon David Stephens Historical records COLA Elders Weatherzone Experience SILO Rainman Australian weather news Newspapers NASA/NOAA MLA North west cloud bands CPC ECMWF Holton

25 Text answers what products/advice do people use apart from the Bureau of Meteorology? Longpaddock Moon David Stephens Historical records COLA Elders Weatherzone Experience SILO Rainman Australian weather news Newspapers NASA/NOAA MLA North west cloud bands CPC ECMWF Holton Pretty clearly shows that people don t differentiate between weather and climate

26 So how did we use this information?? It is clear that users of long range outlook information, want perfect, local, easy to understand, seasonal information, particularly at crop planting and harvesting times, though it is also clear there is some confusion about what some terms mean. We cannot supply perfect no one ever will We can supply local though there are some concerns that we are finessing climate information too much We can provide easy to understand it was clearly not currently the case We already provide seasonal at all months of the year.

27 End Result; Probability of Exceedance

28 End Result; Probability of Exceedance

29 End Result; Rainfall Ranges

30 End Result; Rainfall Ranges

31 End Result; Rainfall Ranges

32 End Result; Rainfall Ranges

33 Summary Users tend not to differentiate between weather and climate Initial survey results showed people wanted perfect seasonal forecasts... Majority at least want better accuracy, but this would appear to actually mean better sharpness. But they also show that people struggle to make use of the way seasonal outlooks are currently presented The majority of Australian Agricultural users now get their information from the internet Balancing what people want with what we can realistically provide, is no easy task.

34 Thank you. International Workshop on the Content, Communication and Use of Weather and Climate Products and Services for Sustainable Agriculture, Toowoomba, Queensland, May 2009 Dr. Andrew Watkins (Senior Climatologist) National Climate Centre, Bureau of Meteorology Contacts: