Southwest Drought Webinar. Becky Bolinger, Assistant State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center June 25, 2018
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1 Southwest Drought Webinar Becky Bolinger, Assistant State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center June 25, 2018
2 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Current Drought U.S. Drought Monitor Drought evolution
3 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
4 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
5 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER U.S. Drought Monitor Time Series: droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/timeseries.aspx
6 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Recent Climate Precipitation Temperature Historical Ranks Hydrology Vegetation from denverpost.com (June Record High Temperatures)
7 What s been happening since the beginning of the water year? WestWide Drought Tracker: COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
8 What happened last month? WestWide Drought Tracker: COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
9 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Western Climate Anomaly Maps:
10 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Western Climate Anomaly Maps:
11 VegDRI satellite derived vegetation conditions on June 3 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
12 28-day Averaged Streamflows for the Upper Colorado (left) and Lower Colorado (right) COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER waterwatch.usgs.gov
13 produced by Peter Goble at: climate.colostate.edu/~drought COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
14 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Wildfire Season List of major fires Impacts of fire picture by Emile Elias (416 Fire)
15 Badger Creek Fire 20,357 acres, 94% contained June 10, unknown Trail Mountain Fire 17,697 acres, 79% contained June 6, prescribed burn 416 Fire 34,962 acres, 37% contained June 1, unknown (maybe train?) Ute Park Fire 36,740 acres, 85% contained May 31, unknown Buzzard Fire 50,296 acres, 85% contained May 22, human caused COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
16 Fire Statistics ü 28 active fires listed on Inciweb in the last 2 weeks ü Over 170,000 acres of new fire since mid-may ü Majority are human-caused with some lightning caused ü In Arizona, by the end of April, 604 of the 611 wildfires that occurred were human caused only 7 due to lightning.
17 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
18 National Forest Closures: Apache Navajo Coconino Tonto Gila Sante Fe San Juan Fire Restrictions Arizona: most of state under Stage II or Stage 1 Restrictions Utah: widespread active restrictions in southwest and southeast regions Colorado: 50 out of 64 counties reporting fire bans/restrictions New Mexico: widespread Stage II Restrictions COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
19 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Impacts Anecdotal stories Pictures photo provided by Chuck Hanagan (USDA FSA)
20 Ranching Impact: With no precipitation for dryland fields and grasslands, there is no food for cattle. This results in ranchers having to haul in hay (and water) or liquidate the herd. **(multiple reports from all Four Corners states) One irrigation company s records show Sanpete County, UT hasn t been this dry in 41 years. photo courtesy Deseret News, Utah COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
21 The ecosystem has been starved for a long time with just the occasional $1 menu cheeseburger thrown to it Royce Fontenot, describing the New Mexico drought photo courtesy of Royce Fontenot (National Weather Service) northeast NM COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
22 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Outlook How do we get back to normal? What s in store for us if El Niño arrives?
23 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Seasonal Outlook from cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
24 June Precipitation Proportion Russ Schumacher, climate.colostate.edu low proportion high proportion COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
25 July Precipitation Proportion Russ Schumacher, climate.colostate.edu low proportion high proportion COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
26 Aug. Precipitation Proportion Russ Schumacher, climate.colostate.edu low proportion high proportion COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
27 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
28 An El Niño Watch has been issued. COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER From the IRI ENSO Forecast: weak El Niño development during late summer, growing to possibly moderate strength during fall and winter
29 from climate.gov COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
30 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
31 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
32 climate.colostate.edu/~drought Thank you
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