National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
|
|
- Luke Sharp
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Southern Express February 2012: Probabilities, Potentials and uncertainty by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA Abstract: A strong southern stream short-wave brought snow and severe weather from Texas to Virginia. The severe weather extended from Texas to Georgia as the upper-level wave raced eastward. Farther north and on the cold side of the surface cyclone, snow was observed. The heaviest snow was observed eastern Kentucky to Virginia. Forecasts from most ensemble forecast systems indicated that the high probability outcome would spare the major cities of the northeastern United States from a major snow event. A few NCEP GFS runs did indicate a potential for the storm to track farther north, favoring a precipitation shield as far north as Philadelphia and New York. Some human produced forecasts gravitated toward these low probability GFS forecasts. Incredibly, and despite ensemble forecasts showing a southward tracking storm, just twenty four hours prior to the event a few human forecasters maintained the potential for snow for Washington, Baltimore, and potentially, Philadelphia. This paper will document the event and demonstrate the value of ensembles in forecasting winter storms. It will be shown that the high probability outcomes must be the basis of forecasts to avoid over forecasting the potential of a low probability event. A simple method of assessing predictability is presented to encourage forecasters to make better use of uncertainty in the forecast process.
2 1. INTRODUCTION A strong southern stream short-wave over the Baja on 17 February 2012 raced across the southern United States and out over the western Atlantic Ocean from February 2012 (Fig. 1). A weaker northern stream wave moved through the area about 24 hours before the southern stream wave. The southern stream wave brought severe weather from Texas to Georgia on February (Fig. 2) and snow (Fig. 3) in the cold air north of the surface cyclone track. This was one of the few winter storms to affect the Mid-Atlantic region during the relatively warm and snowless winter of The potential of the storm in a quiet winter likely caused the event to get a lot of attention. It will be shown that most ensemble forecasts suggested this system was a low probability snow event for the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States. Despite this there were forecasts in the media, on the web, and in social media implying a potential high-impact snow event for much of the East Coast. The ~27km deterministic NCEP GFS had a few runs that showed the potential for a major cyclone along the East Coast (Fig. 4). No GFS forecast issued after 1800 UTC 15 February showed such a strong cyclone forecast as far north and neither did any ensemble forecast system (EFS). It will be shown that the likelihood of a more southern track was in the forecasts and was clearly evident (Junker 2012 Washington Post) in the NCEP EFS. Despite these forecasts, some forecasters and social media sites persisted on predicted a high impact snow as late as 18 February The proper use of ensemble forecast systems (EFSs) can aid in predicting significant weather and aid in predicting the higher probability events. These probabilities aid in dealing with the inherit uncertainty in weather forecasting (Novak et al 2008). A fundamental rule of forecasting is that longer range predictions are subject to more uncertainty than shorter range forecasts. The American Meteorological Society (AMS 2007 states that The ability to resolve the location and timing of weather events decreases as forecast length increases. This paper will show how leveraging predictability issues and probabilistically approaching the forecast situation can reduce over predicting bias. Communicating uncertainty is an important aspect of weather forecasting (Hirschberg et al. 2011) and they stated Forecast uncertainty depends on many factors. Generally, it increases as the forecast lead time (referred to here as forecast lead) increases. Forecast uncertainty also increases more quickly for smaller-scale (size and duration) phenomena, such as tornadoes and thunderstorms, than for larger-scale phenomena, such as a winter storm. Hirschberg (2011) further stated that Despite a growing theoretical understanding of forecast uncertainty and an increasing ability to quantify it with ensemble prediction techniques, deterministic forecasting is still standard for most Hydrometeorological applications. This paper will show that forecasts optimistic for a significant East Coast Storm and the potential for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as far north as New York, were biased toward deterministic forecasts (see Hirschberg et al 2011) or single forecasts which played into forecast bias. Better forecasts and more likely scenarios could have been readily achieved during this event by properly leveraging EFS data and examining the uncertainty data and by using the ensemble high probability forecasts as the most likely outcomes while being mindful of the low probability forecasts. Forecasts emphasizing a single model do not reflect uncertainty information, gravitating toward a favored solution does not reflect uncertainty information. This is especially problematic at longer forecast ranges. When dealing with significant weather events, such as heavy snow and flooding (Novak 2008) uncertainty guidance needs to be available and conveyed in the forecast process. Consistent information of this nature can only be teased out of an ensemble forecast system. Consistent information about the potential is unlikely to be obtained from analogs or human expectations of model performance.
3 It should be noted that there are still events, even at shorter-ranges which are not predictable. The majority of these events are smaller in scale and shorter in duration. Many of these events are best handled with a mesoscale analysis and monitoring (Bosart 2003). Additionally, uncertainty can affect a few significant synoptic events in the hour range. For example, Zhang et. al (2003) noted this issue with the surprise snowstorm of January During the January event data initial analysis issues and the effects of parameterized convection greatly influenced the forecast outcomes. Bosart (2003) noted that good mesoscale analysis and addressing some basic questions which may have improved shorter-range forecasts of this surprise snow event (see Table 1: Bosart 2003). Thus, EFS should improve our forecasts of high impact events but they are not a panacea as they currently do not cover the full spectrum of predictability. However, only forecasts based on detail analysis, not human emotions, are likely to aid in proving forecasts of these lower predictability events. This paper is intended to show an overview of the storm system and then to demonstrate the power of ensembles to produce relatively reliable forecasts of the high probability outcome and thus avoid over forecasting on the margins of a winter storm. 2. Methods and Data The National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) is used to re-produce the conditions associated with the event to include the large scale pattern. The standardized anomalies are displayed in standard deviations from normal as in Hart and Grumm (2001) and are computed using the climatology from the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data (Kalnay et al. 1996). The focus is on the pattern and anomalies associated with the storm. The pattern and standardized anomalies followed the methods outlined in Hart and Grumm (2001) and the GFS 00-hour forecasts were used to establish the pattern and standardized anomalies. The term R-Climate is used in reference to analysis and forecasts which use reanalysis climate data to diagnose or forecast the departures from normal. The primary ensemble data shown here are from the NCEP Global Ensemble forecast system (GEFS) which as of 1200 UTC 14 February 2012 is run at 55km in horizontal resolution. The Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) 21-member global ensemble forecast system (CMC- EFS) is also used to show how this event was predicted. The higher resolution NCEP GFS is also shown here and is used to illustrate the problems forecasters can experience relying on a single model or model run. Other EFS and models were available after the fact from the European Center for Medium Range Weather forecasting (ECMWF) TIGGE site. The ECMWF archives models and ensembles from 10 forecast centers, including the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA). The JMA model was used by some social media forecasters as it persisted in showing a more northward precipitation shield. For brevity, times are presented as day and hour in the format 15/1800 UTC and 19/0000 UTC which would be 1800 UTC 15 February 2012 and 0000 UTC 19 February 2012 respectively. Fully qualified dates are limited to comparative data from times outside of February The Storm system and impacts i. The large scale pattern The 500 hpa pattern (Fig. 1) showed the strong 500 hpa low over the Baja at 17/0000 UTC. This system weakened as it moved eastward across the southern United States. A weaker northern stream wave moved across the northern United States. The forecasts for a stronger East
4 Coast Cyclone relied on a merger of these two waves. Trough mergers have been known to problematic in predicting cyclogenesis for 20 years (Gaza and Bosart 1990). The strong 250 hpa jet (Fig. 5) shows the strengthening jet and implied jet entrance region developing over the Mid-Atlantic region from 18/1800 UTC though 19/1200 UTC. This was a relatively fast moving system another factor likely to limit higher end snow and precipitation amounts. ii. Regional pattern and key anomalies The GFS 00-hour mean sea-level field (Fig. 6) shows the surface cyclone, with about -1 to -2σ pressure anomalies move though the Gulf States and off the East Coast. The storm, a modest 994 hpa cyclone, was well out to sea off the Coast of Virginia at 20/0600 UTC (Fig. 6f). As with many East Coast Winter Storms (ECWS:Stuart and Grumm 2006) the snow fell north of the cyclone in the region impacted by the strong low-level 850 hpa easterly jet (Fig. 7d-e). The 850 hpa wind anomalies peaked near -4σ above normal north of the cyclone from southern Arkansas to southern Virginia as the storm raced eastward. Though not shown, temperatures on 18 February were relatively warm in the Mid- Atlantic region with highs in southern Virginia ranging from the 50s into the lower 60s. The weak and faster northern stream wave pushed a weak cold front into the region around 19/0000 UTC (Fig. 8a) lowering 850 hpa temperatures to near 0C by 19/0000 UTC. There was evidence of cold air damming by 19/1200 UTC. The precipitation arrived during the day and both 850 hpa and surface temperatures fell rapidly toward the wet-bulb. The new air mass was relatively dry and had a good capacity to cool. At 850 hpa the despite no significant cold air advection at 850 hpa (Fig. 8e-f) the 850 hpa temperatures fell over Virginia and North Carolina. Evaporative cooling was the likely mechanism, as a result of this cooling, some areas had 850 hpa temperatures near - 1σ below normal as the event was winding down at 20/0600 UTC (Fig. 8f). Surface observations between 19/1600 and 19/2300 showed the power of this cooling. The 19/2200 UTC data (Fig. 9) showed that many locations in North Carolina and Virginia had snow with temperatures at or above 0C. At locations where the dew point was 32F or greater had rain. Areas with lower dew points had snow or quickly changed to snow. Warmer temperatures, in the 40s dominated north and east of the precipitation shield from northern Virginia into southern New Jersey. Similarly, temperatures were mainly in the upper 30s northwest of the precipitation shield in Ohio and West Virginia. iii. Forecasts NCEP runs the GFS and the GEFS 4X daily which provides a wide range of forecasts to display. The CMC runs the CMCEFS 2X daily at 0000 and 1200 UTC. It would be prohibitive to show all the available forecasts and cycles. The goal here is to convey the salient points as concisely as practicable. For example, Figure 1 shows 9 GFS surface pressure forecasts. The times shown bracket the 3 forecasts of the strong cyclone produced by forecasts issued at 15/0000, 15/1200 and 15/1800 UTC. Note prior to 15 February there were no strong cyclone forecasts and the weaker more southern track dominated forecasts produced after 16/0000 UTC and of shorter duration (Fig. 4a-e). Figure 10 shows the power of using an ensemble, in this case only using the ensemble mean of the 21 members and climatic anomalies 1. These GEFS forecasts lack the deep cyclone to the north shown in the GFS forecasts. The small standardized anomalies are likely the result of spread between members and the coarser resolution of the GEFS. The GEFS makes use of 1 This is a quick and effective use of ensembles but not the best use of ensembles.
5 perturbed initial conditions to produce different outcomes resulting in the ensemble mean forecast being weaker and farther to the south and east relative to the single GFS. Though not shown, this resulted in a similar south and eastward shift in the precipitation shield. The comparative CMCEFS (Fig. 11) showed a far weaker cyclone with the cyclone sheared out well to the south. The GEFS and CMCEFS forecasts from 15 February strongly showed that the stronger cyclone solution in the deterministic GFS was a low probability forecast. The ensemble mean relative to the GFS data provide little information relative to uncertainty. Experience implies some of uncertainty could be gleaned from the anomalies, which due to a large spread between members and the averaging process, produced less robust mean sea-level pressure anomalies. Figure 12 shows 3 GEFS forecast of mean sea-level pressure with the spaghetti and spread about the mean in the lower panels. These data clearly show the high spread and thus high uncertainty with the pressure field along the East Coast. The two of the more aggressive GEFS runs from 15/0000 and 15/1200 UTC are shown along with the 16/0000 UTC run. The upper panels are from 6-hours prior to those in Fig. 10. These data show a deeper cyclone closer to the coast in the mean in the two forecasts from 15 February relative to the 16/0000 UTC forecasts. However, the lower panels clearly convey the high spread and thus low confidence in the cyclone position and intensity. Though not shown, ensemble sensitivity data indicated most of the issues related to this forecast were due to intensity and position of the cyclone. It is beyond the scope of this paper to examine ensemble sensitivity issues, which in this case provided useful insights into the forecast issues. Suffice to say that the high spread (need spread in hpa currently in pa) was clearly showing large uncertainty. Similar images were produced (not shown) over the periods from February. Select forecasts from 17 and 18 February (Fig. 12) show what one might expect as the forecast length decreased, the spread decreased and thus the confidence increased. Note the 996 hpa contour was all but absent in these forecasts and the spread was ½ that from the earlier forecasts. The shift in the cyclone track and the weaker cyclone in the GEFS produced a comparable shift in the precipitation shield and a southward shift in the cold air. All of which are critical players in predicting snow. The probabilities of QPF to match the cyclone tracks showed a sharp northern edge to the QPF shield. Despite the cyclone tracks the QPF shield had difficulty in the latter runs getting much north of the Pennsylvania border with the high probability outcome confined to Carolinas and southern Virginia. The GEFS, based on the GFS showed a similar shift in the cyclone track (Fig. 10) and the QPF shield (Fig. 14) from forecasts issued on 15 February. Despite this northward shift, the 50% probability of 12.5 mm or more QPF maximized on the 15/1200 UTC GEFS with the northern edge in northern New Jersey. The 16/0000 UTC cycle retreated the threat of 12.5mm of QPF rapidly to the south. Forecasts from 16/1200, 17/0000 and 17/1200 UTC (Fig.15) continued to show a more southward high probability of 12.5mm or more QPF to the south. These forecasts, shorter in forecast length are generally more skillful than longer range forecasts, and they proved to be so. The CMCEFS cyclone track showed a weaker cyclone farther to the south (Fig. 16) and a comparable southward shift in the precipitation shield (Fig. 17). The 21-member CMCEFS was a clear cause for pause. Fortunately, the NCEP GEFS and a super ensemble of these two systems, produced by NCEP and the CMC called the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) clearly showed precipitation much north of Washington, DC was a low probability outcome solution as were the forecasts of a deep cyclone off the coast of New York or New Jersey. iv. Observations
6 Stage-IV QPE for the event showed the heaviest precipitation was focused well south of the Mid-Atlantic region (Fig. 18). These data also show that the 12.5mm contour ranged into central Virginia with amounts over 25 mm (1 inch) very limited in extent North Carolina or Virginia. These data support the higher probability QPFs in the ensemble forecasts. The 12-hour increments of the QPE (Fig. 19) show heavier QPF amounts were suppressed well to the south nearer to the Gulf Coast. These data also show how sharp the northern edge of the precipitation shield was. Edges and sharp gradients are ideal locations for uncertainty. The corresponding snowfall based on satellite imagery (Fig. 20) shows how focused the snowfall was over northeastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia, northwestern North Carolina and Virginia. The tight gradient on the northern edge of the storm was the focus for the snowfall. 4. Conclusions A strong southern stream short-wave over the Baja on 17 February 2012 raced across the southern United States and out over the western Atlantic Ocean from February 2012 (Fig. 1). A weaker northern stream wave moved through the area about 24 hours before the southern stream wave. The southern stream wave brought severe weather from Texas to Georgia on February (Fig. 2) and snow (Fig. 3) in the cold air north of the surface cyclone track. This event was an ideal example as to why one should use EFS data in the forecast process. It is also an example of some of the limitations of EFSs which rely on a single model core. And it is an example of why forecasters need to leverage uncertainty data, which requires using ensembles and probabilistic displays to avoid gravitating toward low probability outcomes. The NCEP GEFS showed some of the trends and forecast issues which affected the operational GFS. The forecasts initialized on 15 February, nearly 5-days prior to the onset of precipitation, showed a sharp northward shift in the cyclone (Fig. 10) center and the precipitation shield (Fig. 14). This is clearly a limitation of the GEFS in that it lacks model diversity, relying on perturbations, and thus it tends to follow the same forecast trends displayed by its core model, the GFS. However, the GEFS did show that much north of the Pennsylvania border 12.5 mm or more QPF was a 50-60% outcome, focusing the higher probabilities to the south. It took less than 12 hours for the GEFS QPF shield to shift southward and for the GEFS and the GFS to show a weaker cyclone farther to the south and east. The shorter range GEFS forecasts (Fig. 15& 13 ) showed smaller spread in the cyclone pressure field (higher confidence) and higher probabilities of 12.5 mm of QPF south of Washington, DC. Clearly, shorter range forecasts display greater skill and the spread aids in defining areas of higher confidence. The forecasts from 15 February showed considerably higher spread. Failure to use the EFS data by leveraging the spread and focusing on single solutions diminishes both the role and the value of human forecasters in the forecast process. Bosart (2003) worried about the ability of forecasters to maintain an edge on numerical guidance. Skill in forecasting was clearly shown but much of the skill was directly related to improvement in numerical guidance. Some improvement could be gained by improved diagnosis and analysis. To make a good forecast, 6 basic questions were proposed (Table 1: Bosart 2003). It is proposed in Table. 1 that a set of similar questions could be applied to weather forecasting employing ensemble data to a) ensure that the envelope of solutions is considered b) ensure forecasters are aware of the uncertainty, and c) ensure public forecasts focus on the high probability outcomes. Failure to accomplish this and the continued over reliance on deterministic solutions and ignorance of the uncertainty implies automated processes could produce better unbiased forecasts than humans. Clearly, the deterministic forecast process must whither and die The concept was refined based on personal conversations with Lance Bosart.
7 Table 1. Synoptic Probabilistic Forecasting Process 1) What will most likely happen? 2) Why would this most likely happen? 3) What is the low probability extreme or rare outcome? 4) What is the most uncertain aspect of the forecast? 5) What are the causes of this uncertainty? 6) When will the event most likely occur? This event shows a good example on the value of leveraging uncertainty information in the forecast process. In the majority of strongly forced synoptic events, this approach will likely work well. There probably will be a few events such as the January 2000 even (Zhang et al 2002;Bosart 2003) that may fall through the cracks. They should become rare as forecast system use asynchronous data to update the initial conditions. Smaller scale and locally forced events are likely and will likely remain more difficult to predict and at shorter ranges often require a high state of situational awareness to forecast and warn on. These latter events often have short predictability horizons and can be very sensitive to small problems with initial conditions. A final point here is that no attempt was made herein to explain the source of the uncertainty. Galileo was able to demonstrate how things fell but never explained why. Standard ensemble displays allow us to visualize uncertainty but often do not clarify the why. There are ensemble techniques which allow us to get at the why free of human emotions and bias. 5. Acknowledgements Thanks to the Pennsylvania State University and the National Weather Service in State College for support of to conduct research, ingest these data in real-time, and the ability to conduct case studies. Thanks to Lance Bosart for refining and encouraging the use of the whither and die to deterministic forecast process. Thanks to Lance Bosart (State University of Albany) for conversations on this event and ensemble forecast issues; to Fuqing Zhang (The Pennsylvania State University) for insights related to predictability, and Brian Colle (Stony Brook University) access to and information on ensemble sensitivity issues and the key sensitivity issues associated with this event. Input on the snowfall provided by the National Weather Service Blacksburg, VA. 6. References American Meteorological Society, 2007: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society (Adopted by AMS Council on 8 August 2007) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88. Bosart, Lance F., 2003: Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?. Wea. Forecasting, 18, doi: Gaza, R. S., and L. F. Bosart 1990: Trough merger characteristics over North America. Wea. Forecasting, 5, Graham, Randall A., and Richard H. Grumm, 2010: Utilizing Normalized Anomalies to Assess Synoptic-Scale Weather Events in the Western United States. Wea. Forecasting, 25, Grumm, R.H 2011: The Central European and Russian Heat Event of July-August 2010.BAMS, 92, Grumm, R.H. and R. Hart. 2001: Standardized Anomalies Applied to Significant Cold Season Weather Events: Preliminary Findings. Wea. and Fore., 16,
8 Hart, R. E., and R. H. Grumm, 2001: Using normalized climatological anomalies to rank synoptic scale events objectively. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, Hirschberg, Paul A., and Coauthors, 2011: A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, doi: Novak, D. R, D.R. Bright, M.J. Brennan, 2008: Operational Forecaster Uncertainty needs and future roles. WWAF,23, Washington Post, 2012: Inside nearly impossible winter weather forecast. 17 February Zhang, F., C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno, 2002: Mesoscale predictability of the 'surprise' snowstorm of January Monthly Weather Review, 130,
9 Figure 1. NCEP GFS 00-hour forecasts of 500 hpa heights (m) and height anomalies in 24 hour increments from a) 0000 UTC 17 February 2012 through f) 0000 UTC 22 February Heights every 60m and anomalies in standard deviations based on the color bar. The green dot is the approximate location of Blacksburgh, Virginia Return to text.
10 Figure 2. Storm reports from the Storm prediction center (SPC) showing severe weather by type as in the color key. Upper image is for 17 February and lower image is for 18 February Return to text.
11 Figure 3. Snow fall totals (in) from NWS public information statements ending on 20 February Return to text.
12 Figure 4. NCEP GFS forecasts of mean sea-level pressure (hpa) and mean sea-level pressure standardized anomalies valid at 0000 UTC 20 February 2012 from successive 6-hour GFS forecasts from a) 0000 UTC 17 February through i) 0000 UTC 15 February Isobars are every 4 hpa. Return to text.
13 Figure 5. As in Figure 1 except for 250 hpa winds (kts) and wind anomalies in 6-hour increments from a) 1800 UTC 18 February 2012 through f 0000 UTC 20 February Return to text.
14 Figure 6. As in Figure 5 except for GFS mean sea-level pressure (hpa) and pressure anomalies from a) 0000 UTC 19 February through f) 0600 U 20 February Return to text.
15 Figure 7. As in Figure 6 except for 850 hpa winds and wind anomalies. Return to text.
16 Figure 8. As in Figure 7 except for 850 hpa temperatures (C) and temperature anomalies. Return to text.
17 Figure 9. Surface observations focused over Virginia at 2200 UTC 19 February Temperatures and weather are cooler coded in distinct bands. Data courtesy of Robert Hart and CoolWx.com. Return to text.
18 Figure 10. As in Figure 1 except for NCEP 21-member 55km GEFS ensemble mean and anomalies valid at 0000 UTC 20 February 2012 from forecasts initialized at a) 0000 UTC 17 February, b) 1800 UTC 16 February, c) 1200 UTC 16 February, d) 0600 UTC 16 February, e) 0000 UTC 16 February, f) 1800 UTC 15 February, g) 1200 UTC 15 February, h) 1200 UTC 15 February, and i) 1200 UTC 14 February Return to text.
19 Figure 11. As in Figure 10 except for the 21-member CMCEFS initialized at a) 1200 UTC 17 February, b) 0000 UTC 17 February, c) 1200 UTC 16 February, d) 0000 UTC 16 February, e) 1200 UTC 15 February, f) 0000 UTC 15 February. Return to text.
20 Figure 12. NCEP GEFS forecast valid at 1800 UTC showing the ensemble mean and anomalies in the upper panels and each members 996 and 1020 hpa contour with the spread about the mean (hpa) in the lower panels for GEFS initialized at a&d) 0000 UTC 15 February, b&f) 1200 UTC 15 February, c&g) 0000 UTC 16 February Return to text.
21 Figure 13. As in Figure 12 except GEFS initialized at a&d) 1200 UTC 16 February, b&f) 0000 UTC 17 February, c&g) 1200 UTC 17 February Return to text.
22 Figure 14. NCEP GEFS forecast of 12.5 mm or more QPF. Upper panels show the probability of 12.5mm of QPF and the ensemble mean 12.5 QPF contour, lower panels show the mean QPF (shaded) and each members 12.5 mm contour from GEFS initialized at a-d) 0000 UTC 15 February 2012, c-e) 1200 UTC 15 February 2012, and c-f) 0000 UTC 16 February Return to text.
23 Figure 15. As in Figure 14 except for GEFS initialized at a-d) 1200 UTC 15 February 2012, c-e) 0000 UTC 17 February 2012, and c-f)1200 UTC 17 February Return to text.
24 Figure 16. As in Figure 12 except of CMC 21-member ensembles initialized at a-e) 0000 UTC 15 February 2012, b-f) 1200 UTC 15 February 2012, and c-g) 0000 UTC 16 February Return to text.
25 Figure 17. Figure 16. As in Figure 14 except of CMC 21-member ensembles initialized at a-e) 0000 UTC 15 February 2012, b-f) 1200 UTC 15 February 2012, and c-g) 0000 UTC 16 February Return to text.
26 Figure 18. Stage-VI estimated liquid equivalent precipitation (mm) for the 48 hour period ending at 12Z20Feb2012. Return to text.
27 Figure 19. As in Figure 18 except 12-hour accumulations of QPE for the periods ending a) 0000 UTC 19 February, b) 1200 UTC 19 February, c) 0000 UTC 20 February and d) 1200 UTC 20 February Return to text.
28 Figure 20. Satellite image showing the snowfall area from a visual perspective on 20 February This suggests missing snowfall data in the map produced for Figure 3. Image provided by Steve Keighton, NWS Blacksburg, VA. Return to text.
Northeastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017
Northeastern United States Snowstorm of 9 February 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A strong shortwave produced a stripe of precipitation
More informationEarly May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains
Abstract: Early May Cut-off low and Mid-Atlantic rains By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A deep 500 hpa cutoff developed in the southern Plains on 3 May 2013. It produced a
More informationPre-Christmas Warm-up December 2013-Draft
Pre-Christmas Warm-up 21-23 December 2013-Draft By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A large ridge over the west-central Atlantic (Fig.1) and trough moving into eastern
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Abstract: West Coast Heavy Precipitation Event of January 2012 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803
More informationWinter Storm of 15 December 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Winter Storm of 15 December 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A complex winter storm brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain to central Pennsylvania.
More informationImpacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over
More informationHeavy Rainfall Event of June 2013
Heavy Rainfall Event of 10-11 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A 500 hpa short-wave moved over the eastern United States (Fig. 1) brought a surge of
More informationMemorial Day Weekend 2013: Snow and Cold
Abstract: Memorial Day Weekend 2013: Snow and Cold By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A slow moving 500 hpa low and associated unseasonably cold air in the lower troposphere
More informationSnow, freezing rain, and shallow arctic Air 8-10 February 2015: NCEP HRRR success story
Snow, freezing rain, and shallow arctic Air 8-10 February 2015: NCEP HRRR success story By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A short-wave (Fig. 1) moved over the strong
More informationHeavy rains and precipitable water anomalies August 2010 By Richard H. Grumm And Jason Krekeler National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Heavy rains and precipitable water anomalies 17-19 August 2010 By Richard H. Grumm And Jason Krekeler National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rain fell over the Gulf States,
More informationSouthern United States Winter Storm of 28 January 2014-v1. High Impact Snow on Edge of Forecast Precipitation Shield
Southern United States Winter Storm of 28 January 2014-v1 High Impact Snow on Edge of Forecast Precipitation Shield by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 and 1. Introduction
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Heavy rainfall of 23 November 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A fast moving mid-tropospheric
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Eastern United States Winter Storm and Severe Event of 28-29 February 2012 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Heavy Rain 7-8 December 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A mid-level short-wave
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Abstract: Tropical Storm Debbie, standardized anomalies and heavy rainfall by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College
More informationSouthern United States Heavy rain and flood event 6-8 April 2014
Southern United States Heavy rain and flood event 6-8 April 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Heavy rainfall (Fig. 1) affected the southern United States from
More informationEastern United States Wild Weather April 2014-Draft
1. Overview Eastern United States Wild Weather 27-30 April 2014-Draft Significant quantitative precipitation bust By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA and Joel Maruschak Over
More informationSouthern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Southern Heavy rain and floods of 8-10 March 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction Heavy rains (Fig. 1) produced record flooding in northeastern Texas
More informationMinor Winter Flooding Event in northwestern Pennsylvania January 2017
1. Overview Minor Winter Flooding Event in northwestern Pennsylvania 12-13 January 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A combination of snow melt, frozen ground, and areas
More information2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event
2 July 2013 Flash Flood Event By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A retrograding 500 hpa cyclone and anticyclone (Fig. 1) set up deep southerly flow
More informationTropical Storm Hermine: Heavy rainfall in western Gulf By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Tropical Storm Hermine: Heavy rainfall in western Gulf By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Tropical storm Hermine, the eighth named tropical system
More informationWinter Storm of February 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803
1. INTRODUCTION Winter Storm of 11-13 February 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803 A potent winter storm brought snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain to the
More informationThe southern express: Winter storm of January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The southern express: Winter storm of 28-30 January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION A storm system of Pacific origin tracked across the southern United States from 27-31
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events New Zealand heavy rain and flood event-draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract:. A record
More informationSevere Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Severe Weather with a strong cold front: 2-3 April 2006 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong cold front brought severe weather to much of
More informationMid-Atlantic Ice Storm 4 March 2015
1. Overview Mid-Atlantic Ice Storm 4 March 2015 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A large 500 hpa ridge over the southern United States (Fig. 1a-e)) built into the Mid-Atlantic
More informationThis paper will document the pattern which produced the record rainfall of 30 September The goal is to show the pattern the
The Historic Synoptic-Hybrid rainfall event 30 September 2010 By Richard Grumm And Michael Kozar National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A slow moving north-south oriented frontal
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events Historic Ohio Valley January Severe weather and Tornado Event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 and
More informationNew Zealand Heavy Rainfall and Floods
New Zealand Heavy Rainfall and Floods 1. Introduction Three days of heavy rainfall associated with a deep upper-level low (Fig. 1) brought flooding to portions of New Zealand (Fig. 2). The flooding was
More informationSouthern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding
Abstract: Southern Plains Heavy rain and Flooding By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A severe weather event affected the southern Plains on 31 May 2013. The severe weather event
More informationHurricane Harvey the Name says it all. by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA
Hurricane Harvey the Name says it all by Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service office State College, PA 16803. 1. Overview Hurricane Harvey crossed the Texas coast (Fig. 1) as a category
More informationMulti-day severe event of May 2013
Abstract: Multi-day severe event of 18-22 May 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA A relatively slow moving Trough over the western United States and a ridge
More information09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
09 December 2005 snow event by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A winter storm produced heavy snow over a large portion of Pennsylvania on 8-9 December
More informationThe Spring Storm of April 2007 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803
The Spring Storm of 13-16 April 2007 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A major spring storm struck the eastern United States from 13 through 16
More informationEnsemble Forecasts of the Blizzard of January 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College Pennsylvania
Ensemble Forecasts of the Blizzard of 22-23 January 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College Pennsylvania 1. Introduction A fast moving upper-level disturbance produced a wide area
More informationEastern United States Winter Storm of 1-2 February 2015-DRAFT Northeast Ground Hog Storm
Eastern United States Winter Storm of 1-2 February 2015-DRAFT Northeast Ground Hog Storm By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A major Winter Storm brought precipitation
More informationNWS-PSU Case Study Site 2010 Severe Weather Case
NWS-PSU Case Study Site 2010 Severe Weather Case New Years Eve Severe Weather Event of 31 December 2010 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16083 Abstract: A surge of warm humid
More informationLow-end derecho of 19 August 2017
Low-end derecho of 19 August 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A cluster of thunderstorms developed in eastern Ohio around 1800 UTC on 19
More informationThanksgiving Eve snow of November 2014
1. Overview Thanksgiving Eve snow of 26-27 November 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA An early season east coast winter storm (ECWS: DeGaetano et al. 2002) brought snow
More information1. INTRODUCTION. The super storm of March 1993 produced severe weather and tornadoes as it s trailing cold front pushed through Florida (Kocin eta 1l
1. INTRODUCTION Super Tuesday and awful Wednesday: the 5-6 February 2008 Severe Weather Outbreak By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA And Seth Binau National Weather Service,
More informationHistoric Eastern United States Winter Storm of January 2016: Record snow along the megalopolitan corridor 1. Introduction
Historic Eastern United States Winter Storm of 22-24 January 2016: Record snow along the megalopolitan corridor by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction An historic
More information1. INTRODUCTION. In addition to the severe weather, the
Anomalous Low and its weather impacts 10-12 May 2008 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA And Al Cope National Weather Service Office Mount Holly, NJ 1. INTRODUCTION An unusually
More information1. INTRODUCTION * Figure 1. National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) storm reports for December 1, 2006.
P1.14 FORECAST ISSUES RELATED TO THE UNPRECEDENTED SEVERE AND HIGH WIND EVENT OF DECEMBER 2006 by Greg A. DeVoir* and Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION
More informationEastern United States Winter Storm of February Dealing with Divergent Model and Ensemble Forecast Systems
Eastern United States Winter Storm of 12-14 February 2014 Dealing with Divergent Model and Ensemble Forecast Systems By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction
More informationAlaskan heat episode of June 2013-Draft
Alaskan heat episode of 16-19 June 2013-Draft Abstract: By Trevor Alcott National Weather Service Western Region, Salt Lake City UT And Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA A strong
More informationNCEP Short-Range Ensemble forecasts of an historic rainfall event: The June 2006 East Coast Floods 1. INTRODUCTION
NCEP Short-Range Ensemble forecasts of an historic rainfall event: The 23-27 June 2006 East Coast Floods By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College PA 16803 And Norman W. Junker
More informationDeep Cyclone and rapid moving severe weather event of 5-6 June 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Deep Cyclone and rapid moving severe weather event of 5-6 June 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A rapidly deepening surface cyclone raced
More informationMid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013
Abstract: Mid-West Heavy rains 18 April 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA The relatively wet conditions during the first 16 days of April 2013 set the
More informationOrographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Orographically enhanced heavy rainfall of 23 May 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION During the overnight hours and into the early morning of
More informationThe Deep South snowfall of February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, PA 16803
The Deep South snowfall of 11-13 February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A surface cyclone tracked across Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico
More informationEastern United States Ice Storm of December 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
Eastern United States Ice Storm of 11-12 December 2008 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A significant ice storm affected the eastern United States on
More informationHeat wave ending severe events of July 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Heat wave ending severe events of 23-25 July 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong subtropical ridge (Fig. 1a) dominated the eastern
More informationMid Atlantic Heavy rainfall event 1. Overview 2. Methods and Data 3. Pattern
1. Overview Mid Atlantic Heavy rainfall event With an inertial gravity wave? By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 Contributions from the Albany MAP An unseasonably strong
More informationEastern United States Anafrontal Snow 4-5 March 2015-Draft
Eastern United States Anafrontal Snow 4-5 March 2015-Draft By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A 500 hpa ridge over the western Atlantic (Fig. 1) and an approaching
More informationThe Big Chill of November 2013
The Big Chill of November 2013 Value of anomalies for situational awareness By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Trevor Alcott National Weather Service, Salt Lake City UT 1. Overview
More informationHeavy Rainfall and Flooding of 23 July 2009 By Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding of 23 July 2009 By Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rains fall over Pennsylvania and eastern New
More informationPatterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region 1. INTRODUCTION
5A.2 Patterns of Heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic Region by Richard H. Grumm * And Ron Holmes National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16802 1. INTRODUCTION The patterns associated with heavy
More informationSummary of November Central U.S. Winter Storm By Christopher Hedge
Summary of November 12-13 2010 Central U.S. Winter Storm By Christopher Hedge Event Overview The first significant snowfall of the 2010-2011 season affected portions of the plains and upper Mississippi
More informationThis storm was associated with strong low-level easterly winds at 850 and 925 hpa. Stuart and Grumm (2006) document the value of using u-wind
The Historic Mid-Atlantic Snow storm of 5-6 February 2010-Draft By Richard H. Grumm and John LaCorte National Weather Service Office, State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION A strong storm moved across
More information5A.3 THE USE OF ENSEMBLE AND ANOMALY DATA TO ANTICIPATE EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
5A.3 THE USE OF ENSEMBLE AND ANOMALY DATA TO ANTICIPATE EXTREME FLOOD EVENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. Neil A. Stuart(1), Richard H. Grumm(2), John Cannon(3), and Walt Drag(4) (1)NOAA/National Weather Service,
More informationThanksgiving Snow and Arctic Front 25 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16801
Thanksgiving Snow and Arctic Front 25 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16801 1. INTRODUCTION An approaching arctic front brought light snow to most of western
More information1. INTRODUCTION. For brevity times are referred to in the format of 20/1800 for 20 August UTC. 3. RESULTS
Heavy rains and precipitable water anomalies 20-23 August 2010-Draft By Jason Krekeler And Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Heavy rain fell across the central
More informationThe Devastating Western European Winter Storm February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The Devastating Western European Winter Storm 27-28 February 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION A strong late winter storm, called Xynthia 1, raced across Western Europe
More informationThe enduring Louisiana rain and flooding of August 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803
1. Introduction The enduring Louisiana rain and flooding of August 2016 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 Historic flooding impacted Louisiana on 12-15 August 2016 (TWC
More informationWEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT
WEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT NEW DATA SHOWS SNOWSTORM THREAT FOR JAN 13-14 LOOKS MUCH HEAVIER BIGGER COVERAGE northwest NC (ice) ALL OF VA (Except Hampton Roads) all of MD/ DEL eastern southern PA southern
More information1. INTRODUCTION. March. Local time used in text to define dates. 1 Due to UTC time the went passed 0000 UTC 31
New England Record Maker Rain Event of 29-30 March 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Contributions by Frank Nocera National Weather Service Office Taunton, MA 1. INTRODUCTION The second
More informationMid Atlantic Severe Event of 1 May 2017 Central Pennsylvania QLCS event By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803
1. Overview Mid Atlantic Severe Event of 1 May 2017 Central Pennsylvania QLCS event By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service, State College, PA 16803 A strong upper-level wave (Fig.1) moving into a
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events The southern Express: High Impact Spring Storm of 14-17 April 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events The February Thaw 17-19 February 2011 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 Abstract: After a cold January
More informationMid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015
Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event of 23 June 2015 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview A widespread severe weather event occurred in the eastern United States on 23
More informationSevere Weather Event of 13 July 2014
Severe Weather Event of 13 July 2014 By Richard H. Grumm and Elyse M. Colbert National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Severe weather affected the eastern United States (Fig. 1) from northwestern
More informationThe Historic Storm of October 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
The Historic Storm of 24-26 October 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service 1. INTRODUCTION An historic storm impacted much of the United States from 24-26 October 2010. Though the cyclone was
More informationA summary of the heat episodes of June 2017
A summary of the heat episodes of June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Elissa A. Smith National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Over 1800 record high temperatures were set or tied during the
More information1995 and 1980 (exact dates would be useful). 1. INTRODUCTION
Alaskan Autumn Storm of 22-24 November 2010 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 and Rick Thoman and James A. Nelson National Weather Service Alaska Region 1. INTRODUCTION
More informationMultiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997)
Multiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997) Matthew Potter, Lance Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and Environmental
More informationFlooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013
Flooding and Severe weather of 27 June 2013 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Flooding and severe weather affected Pennsylvania on 27 June 2013 (Fig 1). The severe
More informationPoorly Forecast Winter Storm of 2-3 March 2014-draft
Poorly Forecast Winter Storm of 2-3 March 2014-draft Who would ve thought that non-linear chaotic systems are hard to predict : By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction
More informationEast Coast Heavy Rainfall of January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service
1. INTRODUCTION A strong storm moved across the United States from 21 January through 25 January 2010 (Fig. 1). This storm produced record rainfall and snowfall in the western United States from 20-22
More informationWarm Episode over Indian Sub-continent March 2010 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College Contributions by Lance Bosart SUNY Albany
Warm Episode over Indian Sub-continent March 2010 By Richard Grumm National Weather Service State College Contributions by Lance Bosart SUNY Albany 1. INTRODUCTION A massive subtropical ridge formed over
More informationHRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of October 2014
HRRR and the Mid-Mississippi Valley Severe and Heavy rainfall event of 13-14 October 2014 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA contributions by Charles Ross 1. Overview A deep
More informationNew England Record Maker Rain Event of March 2010
National Weather Association, Electronic Journal of Operational Meteorology, 2011-EJ4 New England Record Maker Rain Event of 29-30 March 2010 RICHARD H. GRUMM National Weather Service, State College, PA
More informationThe Severe Weather Event of 7 August 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Bruce Budd National Weather Service State College, PA 1. INTRODUCTION and Overview
The Severe Weather Event of 7 August 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Bruce Budd National Weather Service State College, PA 1. INTRODUCTION and Overview A fast moving short-wave (Fig. 1) with -1σ 500 hpa height
More informationIndiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017
Indiana County Flash Flood of 22 June 2017 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA 1. Overview Slow moving thunderstorms brought 3 to 4 inches of rainfall to Indiana County, PA during
More information2. Methods and data. 1 NWS Reno, NV report circulated in the LA Times story maximum wind was observed at 0900 AM 8 January 2017.
The California Extreme Precipitation Event of 8-10 January 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA 16803 1. Introduction A strong Pacific jet and a surge of
More informationEarly Summer Heat Waves of 2013
Early Summer Heat Waves of 2013 Abstract: By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA And Trevor Alcott National Weather Service, Salt Lake City Utah From late June into mid-july large
More informationThe Long-lived eastern US tornadic supercell of 20 July 2017
1. Overview The Long-lived eastern US tornadic supercell of 20 July 2017 By Richard H. Grumm and Elissa A Smith National Weather Service State College, PA A long lived supercell developed near the eastern
More informationConvective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013
Convective Heavy rainfall event of 23 July 2013 By Richard H. Grumm and Charles Ross National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: A record rain event affected southern Lebanon County on 23 July
More informationIsolated severe weather and cold air damming 9 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16801
Isolated severe weather and cold air damming 9 November 2005 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16801 1. INTRODUCTION Two lines of convection moved over the State of
More informationCold frontal Rainband and Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event 28 September 2006 by Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes
Cold frontal Rainband and Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather Event 28 September 2006 by Richard H. Grumm And Ron Holmes 1. INTRODUCTION A strong cold front moved across central Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic
More informationHurricane Alex: Heavy rainfall and anomalous precipitable water By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803
Hurricane Alex: Heavy rainfall and anomalous precipitable water By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION Hurricane Alex ambled across the Gulf of Mexico
More informationMesoscale Convective System and heat episode July 2005 by Richard H. Grumm and Mathew Steinbugl
Mesoscale Convective System and heat episode 25-27 July 2005 by Richard H. Grumm and Mathew Steinbugl 1. INTRODUCTION A strong upper-level ridge brought unseasonably high temperatures to the Midwest and
More information11B.1 INFLUENCE OF DIABATIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES UPON WARM CONVEYOR BELT FLOW. PART I: FEBRUARY 2003
INFLUENCE OF DIABATIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALIES UPON WARM CONVEYOR BELT FLOW. PART I: 14-15 FEBRUARY 2003 Philip N. Schumacher, NOAA/NWS, Sioux Falls, SD Joshua M. Boustead, NOAA/NWS, Valley, NE Martin
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events The high latitude Eurasian Anticyclone of January-February 2012 by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803
More informationEnsemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric Blake National Hurricane Center 7 March 2017 Acknowledgements to Michael Brennan 1 Question 1 What are some current advantages of using single-model ensembles? A. Estimates
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events March Madness: The 2 March 2012 super outbreak-draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College PA 16803 and Kyle Imhoff
More informationRecent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets
Recent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets Abstract: Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, Pennsylvania and Anne Balogh The Pennsylvania State University
More informationRecord snow blankets the United Kingdom 5-6 January 2010
1. INTRODUCTION Record snow blankets the United Kingdom 5-6 January 2010 By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 A rare winter storm brought heavy snow the United Kingdom
More informationNational Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events
National Weather Service-Pennsylvania State University Weather Events The record eastern United States Severe Weather event of 3-4 April 2011-Draft by Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College
More informationThe high latitude blocking and impacts on Asia
The high latitude blocking and impacts on Asia By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service Office State College, PA 16803 1. INTRODUCTION An episode of high latitude blocking during the month of December
More informationAppalachian Lee Troughs and their Association with Severe Thunderstorms
Appalachian Lee Troughs and their Association with Severe Thunderstorms Daniel B. Thompson, Lance F. Bosart and Daniel Keyser Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany/SUNY,
More information