Traditional method of rainfall prediction through Almanacs in Ladakh

Transcription

1 Indian Journal of Traditional Knowledge Vol. 5(1), January 2006, pp Traditional method of rainfall through Almanacs in Ladakh D Angchok* & V K Dubey Division of Agricultural Extension, Indian Agriculture Research Institute, New Delhi achuk_iari@rediffmail.com Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh Received 18 December 2004; revised 25 October 2005 Farmers in Ladakh (North-eastern part of J&K State) are still following the agronomic practices of crop production based on astrological facts of Lotho (Tibetan almanac), yet there is no systematic study or very few ever attempted to see the rationality of the ancient knowledge system. Like Indian Panchang (the religious calendar), the Tibetan Lotho also has a mathematical base for predicting the meteorological occurrences. An attempt has been made through this study to check the rationality of rainfall s made in lotho. The findings were quite encouraging and the rainfall s made in lotho were found to be going hand-in-hand with the s made by Government meteorological departments through modern techniques and procedures. Keywords: Tibetan astrology, Ladakh, Almanacs, Lotho, Weather forecasting, Traditional rainfall method IPC Int. Cl. 7 : G01W1/00 India being an agricultural state, its prosperity and all round development largely depends on the sustainability of agricultural growth and development. But the key to success of agriculture is favourable weather and climate, especially the monsoon rainfall. Agriculture is largely weather and climate sensitive. Nearly 70 % of total cultivated land in India depends on rainfall for assured crop yield. While, the factors like inputs, agronomic practices, plant protection measures, etc. can be manipulated; vagaries of weather and climate can neither be adjusted nor controlled. Man has not yet discovered a method of controlling weather and climate, however he has been able to devise means of minimizing some of their unfavourable effects by way of forecasting future weather occurrence. Today, there is a growing demand for more accurate and reliable weather forecasts. In the field of agricultural planning, the importance of weather forecasting needs no over emphasis. The evergrowing demands of, not only short or medium range, but also long range forecasts, has placed greater burden and responsibilities on the National weather services 1. The demand for reorienting meteorological information, fine tuning of climatic analysis and suitable presentation for agricultural decision making and protecting the farming communities from weather *Corresponding author vagaries has become the important issue. With this background, the present study was undertaken with the fundamental objective of finding out an alternative solution to mitigate the demands of farmers to help them in farm planning and decision-making. The history of modern scientific knowledge, so also modern methods of weather forecasting is very recent in its origin. Ancient indigenous knowledge is unique to each unique culture. India had glorious scientific and technological traditions in the past, which certainly had an effect on the neighbouring countries like Tibet, where India is considered by them as the origin or source of knowledge 2. Even today, the village astrologers are correct in surprisingly high percentage of their weather s. The most important aspect regarding our ancient scriptures is that future weather of the coming year(s) together can be predicted with high percentage of accuracy even before the start of the year 3. Unfortunately, with the advent of scientific technologies in the past one century or so, even if these are reductionist and unidimensional in nature, the ancient knowledge which are holistic and multidimensional in nature, have been sidelined. Encouraged by the positive and optimistic outcome of some of the recent studies in the field of ancient astrometeorology, the present study was carried out to undertake a comparative study of twelve months

2 146 INDIAN J TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE, VOL 5, No. 1, JANUARY 2006 rainfall s made by Tibetan astrological theories with the actual meteorological data on a day - to - day basis. Methodology For the present study, the holy city of Varanasi was selected. For undertaking the comparative study, i.e. for comparing the rainfall made by Tibetan-astrological theories with actual rainfall data, two widely used theories, viz. DRUPA and TSEPA were taken for study and the made by them in the months of April 1999 to March 2000 were compared with actual rainfall data recorded by the Department of Meteorology, Division of Agronomy, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, BHU Varanasi on a day-to-day basis 4. Most of the information in Lotho (Tibetan Almanacs) regarding weather forecasting is given in qualitative terms 5. Methods used for rainfall, day-to-day rainfall s have been made with four qualitative terms, namely heavy rain, moderate rain, light or little rain, and no rainfall. Intensive effort was made to decode these qualitative terms into appropriate or approximate quantitative terms with the help of available literatures and eminent scholars. The quantities of rainfall associated with these terms were assumed to be same as followed by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the same terms, i.e. Light rain below 20 mm/day, moderate rain mm/day, and heavy rain above 50 mm/day 6. Then these terms were encoded for analysis purpose as follows: No rain Light rain Moderate rain Heavy rain The actual day-to-day rainfall data of Varanasi were noted down directly from the Department of Agronomy, Institute of Agricultural Sciences, B H U. To compare the s with actual rainfall data, the range of actual rainfall/day were encoded in similar fashion as in the case of quantification, as given below: No rain (0 mm/day) 0 Moderate rain (20-50 mm/day) 2 Light rain (<20 mm/day) 1 Heavy rain (>50 mm/day) 3 After encoding the codes (0,1,2,3), representing each and every day of the lotho were matched with the codes (0,1,2,3) of the same day denoted for actual rainfall. In this way, following sixteen (16) combinations as follows were made: Rain category Coding for rainfall Coding for actual rainfall Possible combinations No rain ,01,02,03 Light rain ,11,12,13 Moderate rain ,21,22,23 Heavy rain ,31,32,33 If, in a particular day, the made was moderate rain (i.e. the code is 2) and on the same day the actual rainfall was, say 15 mm (i.e. light rain, denoted by code 1), then the combination would be (21). If the actual rainfall on the same day was say 35 mm (i.e. also moderate rain, denoted by code 2), the combination would be (22). Similarly if the actual rain were 55 mm (i.e. heavy rain, denoted by code 3), then the combination would be (23), and if there were no rain (denoted by code 0), then the combination would be (20). The meaning of these combinations can be expanded in a clearer manner as follows: (a) The combination (22) denotes the amount of rainfall predicted was same as that of actual rainfall, which can be termed as fully correct. Similarly, the combination (33, 11, 00) was also regarded under this category. (b) The combination (21) denotes the amount of rainfall predicted was more than the actual amount of rainfall, which can be termed as over. Similarly, the combinations (32, 31) were also counted under this category. (c) The combination (23) denotes the amount of rainfall predicted was less than the actual rainfall, which can be termed as under. Similarly, the combinations (12, 13) also fell under this category. The categories of over and under can be combined into one group as partially correct for easy understanding. (d) The combination (20) denotes that while a rainfall predicted had been made for a particular day, but no rain occurred on that day. Thus, this can be termed as incorrect. In the same way, the combinations (30, 10, 01, 02, 03) would also fall under this category. The above combinations can be summarized as below:

3 ANGCHOK & DUBEY: TRADITIONAL METHOD OF RAINFALL PREDICTION IN LADAKH 147 Fully correct s Partially-correct Over Under Incorrect 00, 11, 22, 33 32, 31, 21 12, 13, 23 01, 02, 03, 10, 20, 30 The raw data, i.e. above combinations of each and everyday were calculated for counting the frequencies of fully correct, over-, under and incorrect for each day of the twelve months. A season-wise rainfall are more important than overall annual rainfall in an agricultural point of view, efforts were also made to analyze the rainfall season-wise, each of the four months period as given below: Seasons Rainy Winter Summer Duration From 16 June to 15 October From 16 October to 15 February From 16 February to 15 June After analysis of raw data, the final outputs were systematically tabulated to interpret the information. Results and Discussion Salient findings relating to the analysis of rainfall made by astrological theories from April 1999 to March 2000 are given below: The range of monthly fully correct s of rainfall made by Drupa varied from % (July 1999) to % (August 1999) with an overall fully correct and overall pooled correct of % and 62.2 %, respectively (Table 1). Similarly, the range of monthly fully - correct made by Tsepa theory was from % (May 1999) to % (August 1999) with an overall fully correct and overall pooled correct of and % respectively (Table 2). The highest overall monthly pooled correct was recorded in Drupa theory (62.2 %), closely followed by Tsepa theory (61.93 %). The range of seasonal fully correct s made during summer, rainy and winter season by Tsepa theory was 46.66, 58.73, and % respectively. Overall seasonal fully correct and pooled - correct s made by Tsepa theory were and %, respectively (Table 3). Similarly the range of seasonal fully correct s made during summer, rainy and winter season by Drupa theory were 48.33, 55.00, % respectively. Overall seasonal fully correct and pooled - correct s made by Drupa theory were and %, respectively (Table 3). The highest overall monthly-pooled correct was seen in Tsepa theory (61.94 %) closely followed by Drupa theory (61.66 %). The overall percentage of monthly correctness of rainfall s made through Drupa and Tsepa method (Figs. 1-3) depicts that these s go Table 1 Presentation of monthly correctness of rainfall made through Drupa Fully correct Partial correct Incorrect Pooled correct S No Months (1) Over- (2) Under- (3) (1)+(2)+(3) 1 April, (50.00) 2 (6.45) 0 (0.00) 13 (43.33) 17 (56.66) 2 May 15 (48.38) 3 (9.67) 0 (0.00) 13 (41.93) 18 (58.06) 3 June 14 (46.66) 3 (10.00) 0 (0.00) 13 (43.33) 17 (56.66) 4 July 13 (41.90) L 4 (12.90) 4 (12.90) H 10 (32.25) 21 (67.74) 5 August 19 (61.29) H ) 4 (12.90) 4 (12.90) L 27 (87.09) H 6 September 18 (60.00) 5 (15.66) H 1 (3.33) 6 (20.00) 24 (80.00) 7 October 17 (54.83) 4 (12.90) 0 (0.00) 10 (32.20) 21 (67.74) 8 November 15 (50.00) 0 (0.00) L 0 (0.00) 15 (50.00) 15 (50.00) 9 December 13 (41.90) 2 (6.45) 0 (0.00) 16 (51.60) H 15 (48.30) L 10 January, (54.83) 0 (0.00) L 0 (0.00) 14 (45.16) 17 (54.83) 11 February 14 (48.27) 2 (6.89) 0 (0.00) 13 (44.82) 16 (55.12) 12 March 15 (48.38) 1 (3.22) 0 (0.00) 15 (48.38) 16 (51.61) Overall correctness (51.36) 2.5 (8.33) 0.75 (2.5) (39.43) (62.2) (Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage); (L: lowest and H: Highest )

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5 ANGCHOK & DUBEY: TRADITIONAL METHOD OF RAINFALL PREDICTION IN LADAKH 149 Table 2 Presentation of monthly correctness of rainfall made through Tsepa Fully correct Partial correct Incorrect Pooled correct S No Months (1) Over- (2) Under- (3) (1)+(2)+(3) 1 April, (50.00) 2 (6.66) 0 (0.00) 13 (43.33) 17 (56.66) 2 May 12 (38.70) L 2 (6.45) 0(0.00) 17 (54.83) H 14 (45.16) L 3 June 15 (50.00) 4 (13.33) 1 (3.33) 10 (33.33) 20 (66.66) 4 July 16 (51.61) 6 (19.35) 4 (12.90) 5 (16.12) 26 (83.87) 5 August 21 (70.00) H 3 (9.67) 1 (3.22) 6 (19.35) 25 (80.64) 6 September 18 (60.00) 6 (20.00) H 4 (13.33) H 2 (6.66) L 28 (93.33) H 7 October 14 (45.16) 2 (6.45) 0 (0.00) 15 (48.38) 16 (51.61) 8 November 13 (43.33) 1 (3.33) 0 (0.00) 16 (53.33) 14 (46.66) 9 December 15 (48.38) 1 (3.22) 0 (0.00) 15 (48.38) 16 (51.61) 10 January, (41.93) 3 (9.67) 0 (0.00) 15 (48.38) 16 (51.61) 11 February 13 (44.82) 2 (6.89) 0 (0.00) 14 (48.27) 15 (51.72) 12 March 16 (51.61) 0 (0.00) L 0 (0.00) 15 (48.33) 16 (51.61) Overall correctness ) 2.66 (8.86) 3.33 (11.10) ) ) (Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentage); (L: lowest and H: Highest ) Table 3 Seasonal corrections of rainfall s made through Tsepa and Drupa TSEPA N=120 Fully correct Partial correct Pooled correct Incorrect S No Seasons (1) Over- (2) Under- (3) (1)+(2)+(3) 1 Summer 56 (46.66) 4 (3.33) 0 (0.00) 60 (50.00) 60 (50.00) 2 Rainy 70 (58.33) 19 (15.83) 8 (6.66) 97 (80.83) 23 (19.16) 3 Winter 62 (51.66) 4 (3.33) 0 (0.00) 66 (55.00) 54 (45.00) Overall correctness (52.21) 9 (7.5) 2.8 (2.66) (61.94) (38.05) DRUPA N=120 1 Summer 58 (48.33) 5 (4.16) 0 (0.00) 63 (52.5) 57 (47.50) 2 Rainy 66 (55.00) 18 (15.00) 9 (7.50) 93 (77.50) 27 (22.50) 3 Winter 60 (50.00) 7 (5.83) 0 (0.00) 67 (55.83) 53 (44.16) Overall correctness 61 (50.83) 10 (8.33) 3 (2.5) 74 (61.66) 45 (37.5) (Figures in the parenthesis indicate percentages) hand-in-hand compared to the long range meteorological s, which fluctuate around 60% on an average Therefore, the null hypothesis (H 0 ) or assumption statement was rejected and its alternative hypothesis (H 1 ), i.e. Rainfall s made by Tibetan astrological theories are, on an average, go hand-inhand and in some cases at par with the s made by Government meteorological departments through modern techniques and procedures, was accepted. Conclusion There is an urgent need to authenticate all possible traditional methods of rainfall forecasting, and other natural weather phenomena such as flood, cyclones, etc. More accurate and reliable weather forecasts would be a synthesis of different approaches, both modern as well as ancient. The modern meteorologist should take advantage of the astrological lore available in ancient books and memories of people, and to combine it with their studies, so that more reliable forecasts could be offered for the good of the people. As very few scientific studies have ever been conducted in ancient astro - science, and almost all of them have reported encouraging and positive outputs, there seems to have enormous scope lying in studying ancient sciences, especially astro - disciplinary

6 150 INDIAN J TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE, VOL 5, No. 1, JANUARY 2006 approaches. All the theories mentioned in the ancient astrological texts need extensive studies to see their validity and reliability at present context. In the present study, only rainfall aspect of made by Tibetan astrological theories has been studied. But, there are many other aspect or parameters, which need study, like, yield forecasting and crop prospect of major crops for coming years, forecasting of drought, thunderstorm, snowfall, etc. In addition to agricultural and meteorological studies, other areas like use of astro-science in foretelling earthquake, medical diagnosis, etc. need careful studies to test their validity and practical utility. References 1 Mishra S K, Dubey V K and Pandey R C, Almanacs as an indigenous source of weather-related forecasting and its relevance in today s Agriculture, Interaction, XII (1) 1994, Angchok D, Traditional method of Weather Forecasting in Tibetan Astrology and itsrelevance in Today's Agriculture. MSc Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi, Mishra S K, Indigenous method of weather forecasting in almanacs and its relevance in today s agriculture, PhD Thesis, Department of Extension Education, BHU, Varanasi, Tashi T, Department of Ayurveda, Tibetan Institute of Higher Studies, Sarnath, Varanasi (UP) India, Personal communication, Nima K and Gayalchan T, Khuno Lotho, Lippa the Moorang, Kinnaur (HP), India, Lal R P, Heavy Rainfall Forecast over Lucknow in Southwest Monsoon, Mausam, 43(1) 1992, Narain G, Scientific Study of Astrology, The Astrological Magazine, 71(4) 1983, Padma T V, Quest on for more accurate system of Monsoon Prediction, The Times of India, 10th December 1997, 5. 9 Singh S S, Vaidya S S and Rajagopal E N, A Regional Model for Monsoon Prediction, Mausam, 41(2) 1990, Thapliyal, V, Prediction of Indian Monsoon Variability: Evolution and Prospects Including Development of New Model, in: Climate of China and Global Climate, ed D Ye Fu, J Chao and M. Yoshino, (China Ocean Press, Beijing), 1987,