The Practice of MHEWS in Shanghai. CHEN Zhenlin Director-General, Shanghai Meteorological Service, CMA 16 March 2015

Transcription

1 The Practice of MHEWS in Shanghai CHEN Zhenlin Director-General, Shanghai Meteorological Service, CMA 16 March 2015

2 Outline Ⅰ. What have we done? -- Background and Benefit -- Case study Ⅱ. Why can we do this? -- Technical improvement -- Partnership for service delivery -- Robust decision-making mechanisms Ⅲ. What will we do? -- Future Plan

3 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Megacity of Shanghai: high exposure and vulnerability Shanghai aims to be the financial, trade, transportation, and shipping center of China (4 centers strategic positioning). Shanghai has dense population(24+ million ), congested traffic (2+ million civil vehicles), and productive economic activities. Critical locations such as downtown, the bund, airports, harbors, etc. are highly sensitive to weather events.

4 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Severe weather disasters of Shanghai The frequent disasters occurred in shanghai include typhoon, rainstorm, lightning, and gale. Magnification Effect: Even slight weather events can trigger significant loss of life and property due to high population density and critical economic activities. Domino Effect: Natural hazards can lead to accidents, life and economic losses. Secondary and tertiary effects of weather induced disasters can have severe short and LONG TERM consequences. Impacts of meteorological disasters on Shanghai during Type of disasters Number of deaths (people) Number of injuries (people) Collapsed building(houses) Direct economic losses (million CNY) Rainstorm/flood Typhoon Thunderstorm Total

5 Main task of Shanghai MHEWS WMO identified the Shanghai MHEWS as Demonstration Project in 2007 Weather and climate hazards Weather and climate related hazard Other hazards Emergency Response Typhoon Storm Surge Severe Convective Weather Urban Inundation, Earthquake Fire accident Rain storm Human Health Heat wave Drought Epidemic Diseases, Air Pollution Other Emergencies Chemical gas leak Warning Joint Warning Dissemination Specialized Service

6 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Case 1 : Typhoon Haikui Typhoon Haikui attacked Shanghai on the 7 th August 2012 Max gale: Level 14, Max rainfall: 246.2mm. The warning Signals were issued ahead of the disasters through every channel, both to the decision makers and general public. The MHEWS played a key role in protecting people s lives and property through triggering sectors response measures. - 6,000+ vessels called back to ports - 374,000+ residents relocated to safe areas - 8,000+ construction sites inspected - 93,000+ trees protected - 6,899 outdoor billboards firmness examined Accurate forecast and warning, high efficient multi-agency cooperation were the KEY factors for the successful disaster reduction.

7 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Case2 : Heat wave warning for EXPO 2010 Tailored heat wave warning were issued based on different tourists requirements. Cooling measures were taken: spraying of mist on groups of people queuing to enter pavilions (waiting time to enter popular pavilions often exceeded 5 hours!)

8 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Case3 : Health forecast and service Impacts of weather and air pollution on respiratory diseases, such as common cold, children s asthma and COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) were investigated, and health risk forecast models were developed. Health forecast service has been delivered to schools, community health service centers, elderly service centers, catering industries and construction sites. Evaluation showed that average number of cold attack for children in intervention group was 10% lower than that of non-intervention, and over the half of the respondents considered cold forecast be helpful for reducing family health care cost.

9 Ⅰ. Background and Benefit - Benefit assessment Government Leading, multi-agency cooperation, public participation mechanism has been established, making meteorological service the first link in the DRR Chain. The accuracy and efficiency of forecast and warning has been enhanced. Impact-based forecast and risk-based warning was implemented from the city level to community level. Enhancement of warning efficiency and effectiveness: both warning numbers and time spent decreased nearly 50%. With the support of SMG and CMA, new facilities and platforms have been set up. Shanghai Emergency Warning Center was established. much more risk-based June-October, 2014

10 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Technical progress: Refined Urban Weather Forecast and Early Warning based on Vulnerability Refined Urban Weather Forecast of Shanghai Nowcasting : spatial resolution to 1KM, 12hr(time resolution to 1hr) Short-range : spatial resolution to 5KM, 72hr(time resolution to 3hr) Medium-range : spatial resolution to 5KM, 168hr(time resolution to 12hr) Early warning of disastrous weather events based on urban exposure and vulnerability of City 菲特 台风精细化降水预报 凤凰 台风对城市快速路的降水影响评估

11 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Technical progress: SOPs for public service PWS operation platform was established at the SMS which is anchored by the Chief Service Officer (CSO). CSO was selected following the PWS competency requirement. The platform uses a new slate of Standard Operational Procedures (SOPs) to strengthen the partnership between SMS and other agencies & special users. The SOPs include the standarized operation procedures such as data collection, forecast and warning generation, warning disseminition, QMS, and emergency work flows.

12 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Partnership for service delivery CMA: -- Convening Multi-agency ( 29sectors) meeting for coherent actions by providing tailored warning products. -- Bilateral agreements with departments and agencies(19). -- Playing a key role in integrated disaster preparedness and relief in the framework of, inter alia, the National Disaster Reduction Committee, State Flood and Drought Control Headquarters SMS: --Over 20agreements signed with related agencies including emergency management office, flood control, agriculture, transportation, police, education, tourism, marine, civil affair, health, communication and so on. -- Convening an Inter-agency liaison meeting on met services and warnings (25 members) and keep close relationship with the media to make sure high efficient waring dissemination.

13 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Mechanisms for decision making A regulation was issued in 2014: Improving Contingency Plan and making the color coded weather warnings the real trigger for actions. All citizens can automatically decide whether or not to go to work, and schools are given the option to close in case of red warnings. The related agencies are requested to take actions immediately, and to upgrade their reaction to the highest level once a red warning was issued. The media should provide green channels to deliver red warnings through every channel to maximize the efficiency of warnings.

14 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Mechanisms for decision making Early Briefing: proved effective in reducing the impacts of disastrous weather events SMS usually provides Early Briefing to special users and agencies (Emergency Management office, Flood Control, Construction and transportation administration, etc..) well in advance of public warnings so that the related agencies could have enough time for reactions and do adequate preparation. Traffic Administration SMS Early Briefing Water Affairs Civil Defense Other related agencies

15 Ⅱ. Why can we do this? - Mechanisms : Shanghai Emergency Warning Center National:CMA sponsored the early warning dissemination system for all natural disasters and public events in cooperation with the State Council Emergency Response Office. ShanghaiEmergency Warning Center(EWC) was officially established in The local regulation requests that all the emergency warnings should be issued through the EWC platform. Emergency Management Committee Joint-led by SMS and SEMC EMC: Policy Coordination SMS:Operational work Related Agencies Cooperation Center Training Center Rescue Warning Center Center Sub-Warning Center Water Earthquake Ocean Airpot Food &Drug Transport Civil Defence Agriculture Construction Medical Care Environment

16 Ⅲ. What will we do in the future? - Focus on impact-based forecast and risk-based warning The High Resolution Regional Numerical Model Innovation Center: Impact-based forecasts and risk-informed warnings focusing on urban flooding, aviation, marine navigation, health and transportation will be developed based on high resolution numerical weather forecasting products. Transitionfrom basic forecasts to impact-based forecasts through establishment of impact assessment model based on coordination between SMS and partners. Transition from warnings based on fixed meteorological thresholds to that based on users risk matrix with the integration of user decision making mechanisms.

17 Ⅲ. What will we do in the future? - Focus on urban climate service MHEWS should be forged into a new generation with a holistic approach which links observing, modelling, impact forecast, predicting service, adaptation options with historical hydromet data and DRR management. The Shanghai urban climate service are being developed and delivered to government decision-makers, industrious sectors, and the general public: Anomaly monitoring and Intra-seasonal and seasonal Prediction Weather disaster risk assessment for urban planning, infrastructure construction and big events Wind and solar resource assessment and predication Developing The Action Plan of Climate Change Adaption in Shanghai Urban Climate Service framework and its User Interface Platform will make Shanghai MHEWS evolution more sustainable and improve its efficiency and effectiveness to a new level

18 Ⅲ. What will we do in the future? - Focus on building community s resilience Develop the refined weather warnings at the sub-district level and deliver P2P service for communities. Organize the identifications of Met Safety Communitiesjointly with emergency management office and civil affair agency. Integrate the met service into the construction of smart community in Shanghai, providing personalized and interactive service to the community residents. Encourage the NGOs and volunteers to participate in the disaster risk survey, feedback communication and DRR service delivery.

19 Ⅲ. What will we do in the future? - Focus on risk reduction and transfer Develop Standards for construction of hazards resilient infrastructure. For examples: Urban lifeline (electricity, gas, transportation) standards such as wind resistance, lightning prevention standards. Offer insurance products related to typhoon, rainstorm, etc. to support financing recovery from disasters.

20 Ⅲ. What will we do in the future? - Focus on international exchanges To share experiences with WMO members, and promote the application of MHEWS. To deepen and extend the MHEWS on 2 fronts: --Enhancing cooperation to improve modellingcapacity following the most recent guidance of WMO on impact forecast and risk warnings. --Implementing the Shanghai Integrated Urban Weather, and Climate Service Demonstration Project(IUWCS), which focuses on weather and climate risk management.

21 Thanks for your Attention 谢谢