Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon?

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon?"

Transcription

1 Changes in Timing of the South American Monsoon? A. Seth, UConn, Storrs M. Rojas, U Chile, Santiago S. Rauscher, ICTP, Trieste AAG 8, Boston

2 IPCC Projections South American Monsoon analysis: - Vera et al., Geophys. Res. Let. 6 - Li et al., J Geophys. Res. 6 much disagreement among models for Amazon Large scale circulation changes: - Vecchi and Soden, J Climate 7 - Neelin et al., PNAS 6 some coherent large scale changes

3 Overview South American Monsoon (SAM)? Model representations of SAM? Changes in SAM in a warmer world? Large scale changes in a warmer world?

4 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998

5 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998

6 South American Monsoon? e.g., Zhou and Lau, JClimate 1998

7 Model Simulated SAM? WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) (9 models) th century simulations 1st century SRES A (~higher emissions) scenarios Regions of analysis in this study: Monsoon and South eastern South Americ Emphasis on annual cycle

8 NCAR CCSM3 GFDL IPSL 8 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO X ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Model Simulated SAM Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation in Monsoon region 8 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation SESA 1 HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM X!A data NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Figure. Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) 197- monthly mean precipitation for different regions in South America. Top panel: Monsoon region, bottom panel: Southeast South America. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T Figure monthly mean surface temperatures region average for Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to Reanalysis.

9 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO 1!1 X - 3 Model Projected SAM ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change in Monsoon region HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Model mean 1.5 NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO 1!!3 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change SESA 1!1! ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3.5!.5!1!1.5!3 Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Mean precipitation change SESA Figure 3.! Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America (as in fig. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations !.5 D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T!1!1.5! Month Figure 6. Regional averaged monthly mean surface temperatures differences A -C, Monsoon Figure 3. Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America region (as in(top fig. panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to model mean. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations.

10 NCAR PCM1 MIROC CSIRO 1!1 X - 3 Model Projected SAM ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES Monsoon Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change in Monsoon region HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Model mean 1.5 NCAR CCSM3 NCAR PCM1 GFDL MIROC IPSL CSIRO 1!!3 SESA Precipitation (mm/day) Mean precipitation change SESA 1!1! ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3.5!.5!1!1.5!3 Monsoon Surface Air Temperature (C) Mean precipitation change SESA Figure 3.! Month SESA Surface Air Temperature (C) Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America (as in fig. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations !.5 D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T!1!1.5! Month Figure 6. Regional averaged monthly mean surface temperatures differences A -C, Monsoon Figure 3. Monthly mean precipitation differences in two regions in South America region (as in(top fig. panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to model mean. 1), SRES A (7-1) - Cm3 (197-) model simulations.

11 Precipitation change

12 Large scale changes? weakening of tropical circulation via reduction in strength of Walker Circulation strengthened, poleward shifted sub tropical highs upped ante e.g., Neelin et al 6 from Vecchi and Soden, JClimate 7

13 ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 5 Latitud!!4!6!8!3!3!34!36 (a) 3 year mean lat of max SLP (b) 3 year mean monthly max SLP 18 HadCM3 Changes in S. Atlantic High NCAR/CCSM3 NCAR/PCM1 ECHAM5 GFDL MIROC HadGEM IPSL CSIRO Rean !38 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time 116 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time l mean SLP A-C difference. Black contour 1mb isoline 1mb isoline for model mean C. (c) Model mean lat of max SLP!6 18!7 C 17!8 A 16!9!3 15 (d) Model mean max SLP C A intensified poleward shifted!31!3!33!34 ptember 6, 7,!35 1:33pm D R A F T !36 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time Figure 8. 1 DecJanFebMarAprMayJun Jul AugSepOctNov Time Figure 7. Seasonal mean, model mean SLP A-C difference. Black contour 1mb isoline (a) Monthly mean position of Sea Level Pressure maximum over the Atlantic ocean, in black Reanalysis. (b) Value of maximum of SLP. A(c) model SRESmean, A - C green latitude contour of maximum 1mbSLP, isoline for model mean C.

14 Poleward shift in SACZ Latitude Latitude!!3!4!5!15!!5!3!35!4!45 SON Clim position of max. precipitation Longitude SON A! Longitude SON A!C Latitude Latitude!!3!4!5!15!!5!3!35!4!45 DJF Clim position of max. precipitation Longitude DJF A! Longitude DJF A!C CMAP HadCM3 ECHAM5 CCSM3 NCAR/PCM1 GFDL.1 IPSL HadGEM1 MIROC3. Latitud!!4 Latitud!!4!6!6!8!8! Longitude! Longitude

15 Moisture divergence Figure 1. Monthly mean VIMT divergence differences in regions in South America, SRES A (7-1) - C (197-) model simulations. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T

16 Moisture divergence SON: DJF: divergence in Monsoon convergence C VIMT convergence colors (positive Figure 13. Top row: seasonal mea region Monsoon region convergence and VIMT. Middle row: same SESA as top row butsesa indicates divergence, negative conve onvergence. Boxes in the figures indicate for A. Bottom row: A-C diffe

17 Latent Heat Flux Monsoon SESA ROJAS, SETH AND RAUSCHER: SAMS CHANGES X - 3 Monsoon Surface AirTemperature (C) Figure 15. Regional averaged monthly mean latent heat flux differences A -C, Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to the model mean. D R A F T September 6, 7, 1:33pm D R A F T Figure 15. Regional averaged monthly mean latent heat flux differences A -C, Monsoon region (top panel) and SESA (bottom panel). Black line corresponds to the model mean.

18 Summary CMIP3 projections suggest: - a weakening of the early season precipitation in the Monsoon region - - shorter, more intense rainy season strengthened warm season rains in SESA Mechanism? - local (soil moisture) + large scale (tropical)

19 Model Simulated SAM?!!4!6!8 (a) 3 year mean lat of max SLP HadCM3 ECHAM5 HadGEM Rean NCAR/CCSM3 GFDL IPSL NCAR/PCM1 MIROC CSIRO (b) 3 year mean monthly max SLP!3 1!3!34! !38 DecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct Nov Time 116 DecJanFebMar AprMayJun Jul AugSepOct Nov Time

Altiplano Climate. Making Sense of 21st century Scenarios. A. Seth J. Thibeault C. Valdivia

Altiplano Climate. Making Sense of 21st century Scenarios. A. Seth J. Thibeault C. Valdivia Altiplano Climate Making Sense of 21st century Scenarios A. Seth J. Thibeault C. Valdivia Overview Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) How do models represent Altiplano climate? What do models

More information

EL NIÑO MODOKI IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL

EL NIÑO MODOKI IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL EL NIÑO MODOKI IMPACTS ON AUSTRALIAN RAINFALL Andréa S. Taschetto*, Alexander Sen Gupta, Caroline C. Ummenhofer and Matthew H. England Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), University of New South Wales,

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity Gabriel A. Vecchi Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NOAA Brian J. Soden Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric

More information

Impacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes

Impacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes Impacts of modes of climate variability, monsoons, ENSO, annular modes Iracema Fonseca de Albuquerque Cavalcanti National Institute for Space Research INPE Modes of variability- preferred patterns of variability.

More information

The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO

The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCE LETTERS, 2010, VOL. 3, NO. 1, 25 30 The Formation of Precipitation Anomaly Patterns during the Developing and Decaying Phases of ENSO HU Kai-Ming and HUANG Gang State Key

More information

Low-level wind, moisture, and precipitation relationships near the South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP3/CMIP5 models

Low-level wind, moisture, and precipitation relationships near the South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP3/CMIP5 models Low-level wind, moisture, and precipitation relationships near the South Pacific Convergence Zone in CMIP3/CMIP5 models Matthew J. Niznik and Benjamin R. Lintner Rutgers University 25 April 2012 niznik@envsci.rutgers.edu

More information

MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation. MESA modeling group: I. Cavalcanti, A. Seth, C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, V. Misra

MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation. MESA modeling group: I. Cavalcanti, A. Seth, C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, V. Misra MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation MESA modeling group: I. Cavalcanti, A. Seth, C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, V. Misra MESA modeling objectives Model Assessment Model Development Hypothesis Testing RESULTS OF

More information

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4

Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4 JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 111,, doi:10.1029/2005jd006355, 2006 Rainfall and its seasonality over the Amazon in the 21st century as assessed by the coupled models for the IPCC AR4 Wenhong Li,

More information

Interannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months

Interannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months Interannual Variability of the South Atlantic High and rainfall in Southeastern South America during summer months Inés Camilloni 1, 2, Moira Doyle 1 and Vicente Barros 1, 3 1 Dto. Ciencias de la Atmósfera

More information

Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini

Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate

More information

Moist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai

Moist static energy budget diagnostics for. monsoon research. H. Annamalai Moist static energy budget diagnostics for monsoon research H. Annamalai JJAS Precipitation and SST Climatology I III II Multiple regional heat sources - EIO and SPCZ still experience high precipitation

More information

General Circulation. Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

General Circulation. Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory General Circulation Nili Harnik DEES, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory nili@ldeo.columbia.edu Latitudinal Radiation Imbalance The annual mean, averaged around latitude circles, of the balance between the

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION doi:10.1038/nature11576 1. Trend patterns of SST and near-surface air temperature Bucket SST and NMAT have a similar trend pattern particularly in the equatorial Indo- Pacific (Fig. S1), featuring a reduced

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1189 Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica Jianjun Yin 1*, Jonathan T. Overpeck 1, Stephen M. Griffies 2,

More information

Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM

Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM Evidence for Weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon and SA CORDEX Results from RegCM S K Dash Centre for Atmospheric Sciences Indian Institute of Technology Delhi Based on a paper entitled Projected Seasonal

More information

Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 1.18/NCLIMATE2 Recent Walker circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming Shayne McGregor, Axel Timmermann, Malte F. Stuecker, Matthew H. England,

More information

Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in multi-model simulations

Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in multi-model simulations Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L02702, doi:10.1029/2008gl036141, 2009 Spatiotemporal patterns of changes in maximum and minimum temperatures in multi-model simulations

More information

Using observations to constrain climate project over the Amazon - Preliminary results and thoughts

Using observations to constrain climate project over the Amazon - Preliminary results and thoughts Using observations to constrain climate project over the Amazon - Preliminary results and thoughts Rong Fu & Wenhong Li Georgia Tech. & UT Austin CCSM Climate Variability Working Group Session June 19,

More information

The Tropospheric Land Sea Warming Contrast as the Driver of Tropical Sea Level Pressure Changes

The Tropospheric Land Sea Warming Contrast as the Driver of Tropical Sea Level Pressure Changes 15 FEBRUARY 2013 B A Y R A N D D O M M E N G E T 1387 The Tropospheric Land Sea Warming Contrast as the Driver of Tropical Sea Level Pressure Changes TOBIAS BAYR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel

More information

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF PRECIPITATION CHARACTERISTICS IN ASIA AKIO KITOH, MASAHIRO HOSAKA, YUKIMASA ADACHI, KENJI KAMIGUCHI Meteorological Research Institute Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan It is anticipated

More information

On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate

On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães sullyandro@gmail.com Alexandre Araújo Costa Domingo Cassain Sales Universidade Estadual

More information

Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences

Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California. Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Climate Change Scenarios in Southern California Robert J. Allen University of California, Riverside Department of Earth Sciences Overview Climatology of Southern California Temperature and precipitation

More information

How Will Low Clouds Respond to Global Warming?

How Will Low Clouds Respond to Global Warming? How Will Low Clouds Respond to Global Warming? By Axel Lauer & Kevin Hamilton CCSM3 UKMO HadCM3 UKMO HadGEM1 iram 2 ECHAM5/MPI OM 3 MIROC3.2(hires) 25 IPSL CM4 5 INM CM3. 4 FGOALS g1. 7 GISS ER 6 GISS

More information

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models

Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models Article SPECIAL ISSUE: Extreme Climate in China April 2013 Vol.58 No.12: 1462 1472 doi: 10.1007/s11434-012-5612-2 Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using

More information

St Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation

St Lucia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles St Lucia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

Coupling between Arctic feedbacks and changes in poleward energy transport

Coupling between Arctic feedbacks and changes in poleward energy transport GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 38,, doi:10.1029/2011gl048546, 2011 Coupling between Arctic feedbacks and changes in poleward energy transport Yen Ting Hwang, 1 Dargan M. W. Frierson, 1 and Jennifer

More information

Tropical precipitation change under global warming

Tropical precipitation change under global warming Tropical precipitation change under global warming J. D. Neelin *, C. Chou **, M. Munnich *, H. Su *, J. Meyerson *, C. Holloway *, U. Lohmann ***, J. Feichter **** * Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences & Inst.

More information

Grenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation

Grenada. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. Precipitation UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

Cuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.

Cuba. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Cuba C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

Experiments with Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation for South Florida Region: Issues & Observations

Experiments with Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation for South Florida Region: Issues & Observations Experiments with Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation for South Florida Region: Issues & Observations Ramesh S. V. Teegavarapu Aneesh Goly Hydrosystems Research Laboratory (HRL) Department of Civil,

More information

Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change

Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L15705, doi:10.1029/2009gl038671, 2009 Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change Seok-Woo Son, 1 Neil F. Tandon, 2 Lorenzo M.

More information

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?

Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE

More information

Does the model regional bias affect the projected regional climate change? An analysis of global model projections

Does the model regional bias affect the projected regional climate change? An analysis of global model projections Climatic Change (21) 1:787 795 DOI 1.17/s1584-1-9864-z LETTER Does the model regional bias affect the projected regional climate change? An analysis of global model projections A letter Filippo Giorgi

More information

Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble

Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1372-6 Structure and variances of equatorial zonal circulation in a multimodel ensemble B. Yu F. W. Zwiers G. J. Boer M. F. Ting Received: 16 August 2011 / Accepted: 16

More information

(c) (a) (d) (b) JJA DJF. V850 Hulu Cave. V850 Hulu Cave V1000 V1000. Dongge Cave. Dongge Cave. Lake Huguang Maar.

(c) (a) (d) (b) JJA DJF. V850 Hulu Cave. V850 Hulu Cave V1000 V1000. Dongge Cave. Dongge Cave. Lake Huguang Maar. NCEP-DOE (1981-2010) TraCE21ka (a) (c) JJA Dongge Cave V850 Hulu Cave Dongge Cave V850 Hulu Cave (b) (d) DJF Lake Huguang Maar V1000 Lake Huguang Maar V1000 Supplementary Figure 1 Climatology of EASM and

More information

Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX

Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX John McGregor, Jack Katzfey, Kim Nguyen and Marcus Thatcher CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Aspendale, Melbourne Pune 16 October 2012

More information

ROBUST ASSESSMENT OF THE EXPANSION AND RETREAT OF MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE IN THE 21 st CENTURY.

ROBUST ASSESSMENT OF THE EXPANSION AND RETREAT OF MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE IN THE 21 st CENTURY. ROBUST ASSESSMENT OF THE EXPANSION AND RETREAT OF MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE IN THE 21 st CENTURY. Andrea Alessandri, Matteo De Felice, Ning Zeng, Annarita Mariotti, Yutong Pan, Annalisa Cherchi, June-Yi Lee,

More information

WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA

WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA WATER VAPOR FLUXES OVER EQUATORIAL CENTRAL AFRICA INTRODUCTION A good understanding of the causes of climate variability depend, to the large extend, on the precise knowledge of the functioning of the

More information

Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation In the format provided by the authors and unedited. Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation S. Pfahl 1 *,P.A.O Gorman 2 and E. M. Fischer 1 Changes in extreme

More information

Contents of this file

Contents of this file Geophysical Research Letters Supporting Information for Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in high-resolution large-ensemble simulations Kohei Yoshida 1, Masato Sugi 1, Ryo Mizuta 1, Hiroyuki

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI:.8/NCLIMATE76 Supplementary information for Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate Matthew J. Widlansky, Axel Timmermann,, Karl Stein, Shayne McGregor,

More information

Antigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature

Antigua and Barbuda. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Antigua and Barbuda C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

More information

8B.3 THE RESPONSE OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN TO GLOBAL WARMING

8B.3 THE RESPONSE OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN TO GLOBAL WARMING 8B.3 THE RESPONSE OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN TO GLOBAL WARMING Kristopher Karnauskas*, Richard Seager, Alexey Kaplan, Yochanan Kushnir, Mark Cane Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University,

More information

EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL

EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL ISTITUTO NAZIONALE di GEOFISICA e VULCANOLOGIA EFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL E. Scoccimarro 1 S. Gualdi 12, A.

More information

REGIONAL SIMULATION WITH THE PRECIS MODEL

REGIONAL SIMULATION WITH THE PRECIS MODEL Anales Instituto Patagonia (Chile), 2012. 40(1):45-50 45 REGIONAL SIMULATION WITH THE PRECIS MODEL SIMULACIÓN REGIONAL CON EL MODELO PRECIS Mark Falvey 1 During 2006 the Geophysics Department of the University

More information

Specifying ACIA future time slices and climatological baseline

Specifying ACIA future time slices and climatological baseline Specifying ACIA future time slices and climatological baseline Vladimir Kattsov and Stanislav Vavulin Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, St.Petersburg, Russia 1. ACIA future time slices Specific time

More information

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD

NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC. Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NetCDF, NCAR s climate model data, and the IPCC Gary Strand NCAR/NESL/CGD NCAR s climate model data A bit of history... 1960s - 1990s Self-designed self-implemented binary formats 1990s-2000s netcdf-3

More information

Geophysical Research Letters. Supporting Information for

Geophysical Research Letters. Supporting Information for 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3 Geophysical Research Letters Supporting Information for Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change

More information

CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming

CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 117,, doi:10.1029/2012jd018578, 2012 CMIP5 multimodel ensemble projection of storm track change under global warming Edmund K. M. Chang, 1 Yanjuan Guo, 2 and Xiaoming

More information

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world?

Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world? Climatic Change (2011) 104:403 414 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-9973-8 LETTER Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world? A letter Anji Seth Sara A. Rauscher Maisa Rojas Alessandra Giannini

More information

Getting our Heads out of the Clouds: The Role of Subsident Teleconnections in Climate Sensitivity

Getting our Heads out of the Clouds: The Role of Subsident Teleconnections in Climate Sensitivity Getting our Heads out of the Clouds: The Role of Subsident Teleconnections in Climate Sensitivity John Fasullo Climate Analysis Section, NCAR Getting our Heads out of the Clouds: The Role of Subsident

More information

Downscaling Global Warming with a Regional Ocean- Atmosphere Model over the Tropical Atlantic

Downscaling Global Warming with a Regional Ocean- Atmosphere Model over the Tropical Atlantic Downscaling Global Warming with a Regional Ocean- Atmosphere Model over the Tropical Atlantic Role of equatorial ocean dynamics: equatorial upwelling and ocean mesoscale variability Hyodae Seo and Shang-Ping

More information

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1854 Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms N. J. Dunstone 1, D. S. Smith 1, B. B. B. Booth 1, L. Hermanson 1, R. Eade 1 Supplementary information

More information

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region. Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Technical Appendix Climate Change Projections CLIMATE MODELS Large, three-dimensional, coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (GCMs) of

More information

Faisal S. Syed, Shahbaz M.,Nadia R.,Siraj I. K., M. Adnan Abid, M. Ashfaq, F. Giorgi, J. Pal, X. Bi

Faisal S. Syed, Shahbaz M.,Nadia R.,Siraj I. K., M. Adnan Abid, M. Ashfaq, F. Giorgi, J. Pal, X. Bi ICTP NCP International Conference on Global Change 15-19 November, 2006, Islamabad Climate Change Studies over South Asia Region Using Regional Climate Model RegCM3 (Preliminary Results) Faisal S. Syed,

More information

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins Marta Llopart Erika Coppola, Filippo Giorgi, Rosmeri da Rocha, Santiago Cuadra Amazon Basin (AMZ) is on of the most important watershed

More information

Suriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.

Suriname. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Suriname C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

DYNAMICS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF GLOBAL WARMING PATTERNS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION

DYNAMICS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF GLOBAL WARMING PATTERNS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION DYNAMICS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF GLOBAL WARMING PATTERNS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE DIVISION OF THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI I

More information

Malawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1

Malawi. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Malawi C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

Supplementary Figure 1 Observed change in wind and vertical motion. Anomalies are regime differences between periods and obtained

Supplementary Figure 1 Observed change in wind and vertical motion. Anomalies are regime differences between periods and obtained Supplementary Figure 1 Observed change in wind and vertical motion. Anomalies are regime differences between periods 1999 2013 and 1979 1998 obtained from ERA-interim. Vectors are horizontal wind at 850

More information

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Southern California and the Western U.S.

Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Southern California and the Western U.S. Projected Impacts of Climate Change in Southern California and the Western U.S. Sam Iacobellis and Dan Cayan Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, San Diego Sponsors: NOAA RISA

More information

Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming

Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming Thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms for large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle in response to global warming Richard Seager, Naomi Naik, Gabriel A. Vecchi Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia

More information

National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan. downscaling. Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors: Dr Shien-Tsung Chen & Mr. Chin-yYuan Lin

National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan. downscaling. Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors: Dr Shien-Tsung Chen & Mr. Chin-yYuan Lin Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan Impact of stochastic weather generator characteristic on daily precipitation downscaling Speaker: Pao-Shan Yu Co-authors:

More information

Southern Hemisphere Storminess under recent and anthropogenic climate conditions based on a multi model ensemble analysis

Southern Hemisphere Storminess under recent and anthropogenic climate conditions based on a multi model ensemble analysis Southern Hemisphere Storminess under recent and anthropogenic climate conditions based on a multi model ensemble analysis Jens Grieger G.C. Leckebusch, M. Schuster, U. Ulbrich (contact: jens.grieger@met.fu-berlin.de)

More information

The Implication of Ural Blocking on the East Asian Winter Climate in CMIP5 Models

The Implication of Ural Blocking on the East Asian Winter Climate in CMIP5 Models The Implication of Ural Blocking on the East Asian Winter Climate in CMIP5 Models Hoffman H. N. Cheung, Wen Zhou (hncheung-c@my.cityu.edu.hk) City University of Hong Kong Shenzhen Institute Guy Carpenter

More information

CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR ALBERTA

CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR ALBERTA CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR ALBERTA A Report Prepared for the Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative (PARC) in co-operation with Alberta Environment Elaine Barrow 1 & Ge Yu 2 May 2005 1 Climate Research Services

More information

Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades

Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2277 Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades Masato Mori 1*, Masahiro Watanabe 1, Hideo Shiogama 2, Jun Inoue 3,

More information

CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America

CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America 15 DECEMBER 2013 C H A N G 9903 CMIP5 Projection of Significant Reduction in Extratropical Cyclone Activity over North America EDMUND K. M. CHANG School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook

More information

Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1

Mozambique. General Climate. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Mozambique C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

More information

The role of land-sea contrast in the circulation response to seasonal insolation and global warming

The role of land-sea contrast in the circulation response to seasonal insolation and global warming The role of land-sea contrast in the circulation response to seasonal insolation and global warming Tiffany A. Shaw Columbia University University of Chicago Thanks to A. Voigt, I Simpson, R. Seager What

More information

Relationship between trends in land precipitation and tropical SST gradient

Relationship between trends in land precipitation and tropical SST gradient Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 34, L16809, doi:10.1029/2007gl030491, 2007 Relationship between trends in land precipitation and tropical SST gradient Chul Eddy Chung 1 and

More information

Surface Winds along Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems in Future Climate Scenarios

Surface Winds along Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems in Future Climate Scenarios Surface Winds along Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems in Future Climate Scenarios René D. Garreaud and Mark Falvey Department of Geophysics Universidad de Chile Outline EBUS Climate background Future

More information

Supporting Information for Relation of the double-itcz bias to the atmospheric energy budget in climate models

Supporting Information for Relation of the double-itcz bias to the atmospheric energy budget in climate models GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Supporting Information for Relation of the double-itcz bias to the atmospheric energy budget in climate models Ori Adam 1, Tapio Schneider 1,2, Florent Brient 1, and Tobias

More information

Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming

Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming D A R G A N M. W. F R I E R S O N U N I V E R S I T Y O F W A S H I N G T O N, D E P A R T M E N T O F A T M O S P H E R I C S C I E N C

More information

Climate Change Scenarios Dr. Elaine Barrow Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project

Climate Change Scenarios Dr. Elaine Barrow Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project Climate Change Scenarios Dr. Elaine Barrow Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project What is a scenario? a coherent, internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of

More information

Temperature extremes in the United States: Quantifying the response to aerosols and greenhouse gases with implications for the warming hole

Temperature extremes in the United States: Quantifying the response to aerosols and greenhouse gases with implications for the warming hole Temperature extremes in the United States: Quantifying the response to aerosols and greenhouse gases with implications for the warming hole Nora Mascioli, Arlene Fiore, Michael Previdi, Gustavo Correa

More information

Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate

Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 36, L23707, doi:10.1029/2009gl041303, 2009 Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate Michela Biasutti 1 and Adam

More information

The Effects of Orbital Precession on Tropical Precipitation

The Effects of Orbital Precession on Tropical Precipitation University of Miami Scholarly Repository Open Access Theses Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2014-04-06 The Effects of Orbital Precession on Tropical Precipitation Kimberly Ann Chamales University of

More information

Human influence on terrestrial precipitation trends revealed by dynamical

Human influence on terrestrial precipitation trends revealed by dynamical 1 2 3 Supplemental Information for Human influence on terrestrial precipitation trends revealed by dynamical adjustment 4 Ruixia Guo 1,2, Clara Deser 1,*, Laurent Terray 3 and Flavio Lehner 1 5 6 7 1 Climate

More information

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D05108, doi: /2009jd011706, 2010

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, D05108, doi: /2009jd011706, 2010 Click Here for Full Article JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115,, doi:10.1029/2009jd011706, 2010 Changes in synoptic weather patterns and Greenland precipitation in the 20th and 21st centuries: 2.

More information

THE RELATION AMONG SEA ICE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE

THE RELATION AMONG SEA ICE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE THE RELATION AMONG SEA ICE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION IN SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE CLIMATE Bitz, C. M., Polar Science Center, University of Washington, U.S.A. Introduction Observations

More information

The Climate of (north central) Chile: Mean state, Variability and Trends

The Climate of (north central) Chile: Mean state, Variability and Trends The Climate of (north central) Chile: Mean state, Variability and Trends René D. Garreaud Department of Geophysics Universidad de Chile www.dgf.uchile.cl/rene Astronomical site testing data conference

More information

High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes

High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes High-Resolution MPAS Simulations for Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Weather Extremes ALLISON MICHAELIS, GARY LACKMANN, & WALT ROBINSON Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North

More information

Climate Change in Victoria

Climate Change in Victoria Department of Sustainability and Environment Climate Change in Victoria Assessment of climate change for Victoria: 2001-2002 Undertaken for the Victorian Department of Sustainability and Environment by

More information

PUBLICATIONS. Geophysical Research Letters

PUBLICATIONS. Geophysical Research Letters PUBLICATIONS Geophysical Research Letters RESEARCH LETTER Key Points: Biases in the unperturbed climatology contribute to the uncertainty in climate change projections Biases in the climatological SST

More information

Second-Order Draft Chapter 10 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report

Second-Order Draft Chapter 10 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report Second-Order Draft Chapter IPCC WG Fourth Assessment Report Figure... Multi model mean changes in a) zonal mean cloud fraction (in %), shown as a cross section though the atmosphere, and b) total cloud

More information

BREA Final Results Forum Results from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

BREA Final Results Forum Results from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis BREA Final Results Forum Results from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Gregory M. Flato (PI), W. Merryfield, W.S. Lee, M. Sigmond, B. Pal, C. Reader Project Title: FORECASTING OCEAN

More information

REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT

REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT REQUEST FOR A SPECIAL PROJECT 2017 2019 MEMBER STATE: Sweden.... 1 Principal InvestigatorP0F P: Wilhelm May... Affiliation: Address: Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University Sölvegatan

More information

Observational validation of an extended mosaic technique for capturing subgrid scale heterogeneity in a GCM

Observational validation of an extended mosaic technique for capturing subgrid scale heterogeneity in a GCM Printed in Singapore. All rights reserved C 2007 The Authors Journal compilation C 2007 Blackwell Munksgaard TELLUS Observational validation of an extended mosaic technique for capturing subgrid scale

More information

Chapter 7 Projections Based on Downscaling

Chapter 7 Projections Based on Downscaling Damage caused by Tropical Cyclone Pat, Cook Islands, February 2010. Photo: National Environment Service, Government of the Cook Islands Chapter 7 Projections Based on Downscaling 181 Summary Downscaled

More information

Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis

Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from a multivariate Bayesian analysis Zurich Open Repository and Archive University of Zurich Main Library Strickhofstrasse 39 CH-8057 Zurich www.zora.uzh.ch Year: 2007 Spatial patterns of probabilistic temperature change projections from

More information

More extreme precipitation in the world s dry and wet regions

More extreme precipitation in the world s dry and wet regions More extreme precipitation in the world s dry and wet regions Markus G. Donat, Andrew L. Lowry, Lisa V. Alexander, Paul A. O Gorman, Nicola Maher Supplementary Table S1: CMIP5 simulations used in this

More information

California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble

California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble 6238 J O U R N A L O F C L I M A T E VOLUME 26 California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble J. DAVID NEELIN, BAIRD LANGENBRUNNER,

More information

The CLIMGEN Model. More details can be found at and in Mitchell et al. (2004).

The CLIMGEN Model. More details can be found at   and in Mitchell et al. (2004). Provided by Tim Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK t.osborn@uea.ac.uk The CLIMGEN Model CLIMGEN currently produces 8 climate variables

More information

A last saturation diagnosis of subtropical water vapor response to global warming

A last saturation diagnosis of subtropical water vapor response to global warming Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37,, doi:10.1029/2009gl042316, 2010 A last saturation diagnosis of subtropical water vapor response to global warming John V. Hurley 1 and

More information

Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios

Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Nonlinear atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss under different sea ice scenarios Hans Chen, Fuqing Zhang and Richard Alley Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques The Pennsylvania

More information

Water Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate

Water Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate Water Stress, Droughts under Changing Climate Professor A.K.M. Saiful Islam Institute of Water and Flood Management Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Outline of the presentation

More information

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate Supporting Tables and Figures Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate Liming Zhou Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY 12222, USA List of supporting tables

More information

Estimation of Natural Variability and Detection of Anthropogenic Signal in Summertime Precipitation in La Plata Basin

Estimation of Natural Variability and Detection of Anthropogenic Signal in Summertime Precipitation in La Plata Basin Estimation of Natural Variability and Detection of Anthropogenic Signal in Summertime Precipitation in La Plata Basin Marcelo Barreiro Stefanie Talento Talento and Barreiro (2012) Facultad de Ciencias

More information

CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models

CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models Seventh ICTP Workshop on THE THEORY AND USE OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS 12-23 May 2014 Miramare, Trieste, Italy CORDEX South Asia: Overview and Performance of Regional Climate Models J. Sanjay Centre for

More information