Short- term solar forecas/ng with sta/s/cal models and combina/on of models

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Short- term solar forecas/ng with sta/s/cal models and combina/on of models"

Transcription

1 Short- term solar forecas/ng with sta/s/cal models and combina/on of models Philippe Lauret, Mathieu David PIMENT Laboratory, University of La Réunion L. Mazorra Aguiar University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

2 Forecas+ng methods CM- Sat: Cloud- mo/on based on satellite images NWP: Numerical Weather Predic/on model CM- SI: Cloud- mo/on based on sky- imagers machine learning techniques Figure from Best Prac/ces Handbook for the Collec/on and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applica/ons, Tech. Report, NREL/ TP- 5D Available online:hwp:// ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

3 Use of sta+s+cal models for intra- day solar forecas+ng Focus on intra- day solar forecas/ng i.e predic/ons of the solar irradiance from 1h up to 6 hours in the future machine learning techniques 1h 6h Forecast horizon ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

4 Outline of the presenta+on Past ground measurements of GHI 1 1 GHI forecasts GHI (W.m 2) Ground observation 5 1 hour Forecas/ng model GHI (W.m 2) Ground observation Forecast GHI: Global Horizontal Irradiance 5 1 hour ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

5 Outline of the presenta+on Past ground measurements of GHI 1 GHI forecasts GHI (W.m 2) Ground observation 5 1 hour Forecas/ng model GHI (W.m 2) Ground observation Forecast 5 1 hour Forecasting Error ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

6 Outline of the presenta+on Past ground measurements of GHI GHI (W.m 2) Ground observation Forecas/ng model GHI (W.m 2) GHI forecasts Ground observation Forecast 5 1 hour 5 1 hour 45 Forecasting Error 35 Ground Ground+NWP 1 ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

7 Outline of the presenta+on 1 Ground observation 1 GHI (W.m 2) hour GHI forecasts Forecas/ng model 1 Ground observation Forecast 1 8 GHI (W.m 2) Past ground measurements of GHI hour 45 Satellite data Forecasting Error 35 Ground Ground+NWP Ground+NWP+Satellite 1 1 ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

8 Sites for intra-day solar forecasting 2 stations from the SURFRAD network: Desert Rock and Fort Peck SURFRAD Network, Monitoring Surface Radiation in the Continental United States. Available online: ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

9 Sites for intra-day solar forecasting 3 insular sites: La Réunion island (2) and Gran Canaria island ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

10 Data processing Clear sky model Rayonnement global GHI (W/m2) Clear sky index: hour Heure! =!"#!"#!"#$% 1 Clear sky kt* k*.5 Cloudy Overcast Heure Forecasting models are fitted to the clear sky index time series ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

11 Sky conditions analysis 7 6 Saint Pierre Le Tampon Desert Rock Fort Peck % Clear sky index Solar variability intermediate high low intermediate ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

12 Benchmarking of the forecasting models 2 references models: Persistence and climatological mean 1 /me series model model (ARMA model) with recursive es/ma/on of the parameters 1 machine learning technique (Ar/ficial Neural Network) Evalua/on of the forecas/ng performance :!"#$ = 1!!!!!!"#!"#$!"#$.!!"#!"#$%&"'.!! Forecast skill parameter:! % = 1!"#$!"#!!"!"#$!"#$ 1 ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

13 Results - Reference models Saint Pierre 7 Le Tampon Desert Rock Fort Peck !! + h =!"#!!!!! + h =!! ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

14 Results - Reference models Saint Pierre 7 Le Tampon Desert Rock Fort Peck !! + h =!"#!!!!! + h =!! ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

15 Forecasting methodology with time series model Past ground measurement values of k* Forecasted k* for /me horizon h k*(t) k*(t- 1) k*(t- 2) Forecasting model k*(t+h), h=1,2,3, Ground observation Forecast GHI (W.m 2) hour ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January, 27-16

16 Results Use of ground data only Saint Pierre 7 Le Tampon Desert Rock Fort Peck ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

17 Use of exogenous inputs provided by NWP models GHI and TCC forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) o o o o o IFS model Generated at 12h UTC (16h in Reunion) Available at 18h55 UTC (22h55 in reunion) Spatial resolution:.1 x.1 ( 14 x 14 km near Reunion) Temporal resolution: 1 hour ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

18 Results Combination of Ground and ECMWF data 45 Saint Pierre 7 Le Tampon 35 6 ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

19 Results Combination of Ground and ECMWF data ARMA Rls ANN GROUND+ECMWF Saint Pierre Forecast Skill (%) 1 Tampon 1 ü higher values of s-skill scores are obtained with the combination of on-site measured irradiance and NWP model output ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

20 Exogenous inputs provided by Satellite data Satellite-derived GHI for Gran Canaria obtained from HelioClim solar radiation databases o o ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar Spatial resolution: 3 km x 3km Temporal resolution: mins January, 27-16

21 Selection of Satellite pixels Selec/on of satellite pixels by calcula/ng the cross- correla/on between ground clear sky index and satellite clear sky indices:!! (!,!)! =!"##!!"#$%&!,!!"#$%%&#$!!!!!!"#!!!! =!,!,!!&!! ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

22 Combination of Ground, ECMWF and Satellite data Forecast Skill (%) 35 GROUND+ECMWF GROUND+Satellite GROUND+ECMWF+SAT Las Palmas 1 5 ü Overall, the forecast skill of the combination GROUND+ECMWF+SAT is better than the forecast skill of the two other models GROUND+ECMWF and GROUND+SAT ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

23 Conclusions and further investigations ü Use of exogenous inputs (such as those provided by NWP models or Satellite data) improve the accuracy of the intra-day solar forecasts. Further investigations: u Use of other input paramters e.g. wind fields, humidity, cloud height provided by a NWP model u Implementation of ECMWF forecasts in an ARMAX Recursive Least Square model ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

24 Further readings: Use of exogenous inputs in forecasting models: A. Zagouras, H. Pedro and C. Coimbra, On the role of lagged exogenous variables and spatiotemporal correlations in improving the accuracy of solar forecasting methods, Renewable Energy, vol. 78, pp. 3-18,. B. Marquez, R., Coimbra, C.F.M., 11. Forecasting of global and direct solar irradiance using stochastic-learning methods, ground experiments and the NWS database. Solar Energy 85, C. R. Dambreville, P. Blanc, J. Chanussot and D. Boldo, Very short term forecasting of the Global Horizontal Irradiance using a spatio-temporal autoregresive model, Renewable Energy, vol. 72, pp. 291-, 14. D. C.Voyant, M. Muselli, C. Paoli and M.L Nivet, «Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation, Energy, Energy, Volume 39, Issue 1, March 12, Pages E. L. Mazorra Aguiar, B. Pereira, M. David, F. Diaz and P. Lauret, «Use of satellite data to improve solar radiation forecasting with Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks,» Solar Energy, vol. 122, pp ,. F. Bacher, P.; Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. (9). Online Short-Term Solar Power Forecasting. Solar Energy (83); pp. 1,772 1,783. G. P. Lauret, E. Lorenz, M. David. «Solar Forecasting in a Challenging Insular Context» accepted for publication in Atmosphere journal, ISSN , ISES Solar Resource Forecasting Webminar January,

Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models

Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models Probabilistic forecasting of the solar irradiance with recursive ARMA and GARCH models M. David, F. Ramahatana, P.J. Trombe, Philippe Lauret To cite this version: M. David, F. Ramahatana, P.J. Trombe,

More information

Satellite-based solar irradiance assessment and forecasting in tropical insular areas

Satellite-based solar irradiance assessment and forecasting in tropical insular areas Satellite-based solar irradiance assessment and forecasting in tropical insular areas Sylvain Cros, Maxime De Roubaix, Mathieu Turpin, Patrick Jeanty 16th EMS Annual Meeting & 11th European Conference

More information

Post-processing of solar irradiance forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island

Post-processing of solar irradiance forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Energy Procedia 57 (2014 ) 1364 1373 2013 ISES Solar World Congress Post-processing of solar irradiance forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island

More information

The Center for Renewable Resource Integration at UC San Diego

The Center for Renewable Resource Integration at UC San Diego The Center for Renewable Resource Integration at UC San Diego Carlos F. M. Coimbra ccoimbra@ucsd.edu; solarwind.ucsd.edu Jan Kleissl and Byron Washom UCSD Center of Excellence in Renewable Resources and

More information

OUTPUTS AND ERROR INDICATORS FOR SOLAR FORECASTING MODELS

OUTPUTS AND ERROR INDICATORS FOR SOLAR FORECASTING MODELS OUTPUTS AND ERROR INDICATORS FOR SOLAR FORECASTING MODELS Mathieu DAVID Hadja Maïmouna DIAGNE Philippe LAURET PIMENT University of La Reunion 97715 Saint Denis Cedex 9 Reunion Island mathieu.david@univ-reunion.fr

More information

Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models

Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models energies Article Probabilistic Solar Forecasting Using Quantile Regression Models Philippe Lauret 1, *, Mathieu David 1 and Hugo T. C. Pedro 2 1 PIMENT Laboratory, Université de La Réunion,15 Avenue René

More information

CARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO (CO-PI)

CARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO (CO-PI) HIGH-FIDELITY SOLAR POWER FORECASTING SYSTEMS FOR THE 392 MW IVANPAH SOLAR PLANT (CSP) AND THE 250 MW CALIFORNIA VALLEY SOLAR RANCH (PV) PROJECT CEC EPC-14-008 CARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO

More information

DNICast Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies

DNICast Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies DNICast Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting methods for optimized operation of concentrating solar technologies THEME [ENERGY.2013.2.9.2] [Methods for the estimation of the Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI)]

More information

COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL

COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL Ricardo Marquez Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics School of Engineering University of California Merced Carlos F. M. Coimbra

More information

Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)

Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Manajit Sengupta Aron Habte, Anthony Lopez, Yu Xi and Andrew Weekley, NREL Christine Molling CIMMS Andrew Heidinger, NOAA International

More information

Short-Term Power Production Forecasting in Smart Grid Based on Solar Power Plants

Short-Term Power Production Forecasting in Smart Grid Based on Solar Power Plants International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences (IJEAS) Short-Term Power Production Forecasting in Smart Grid Based on Solar Power Plants Qudsia Memon, Nurettin Çetinkaya Abstract Since the world

More information

Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting

Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting Combining solar irradiance measurements, satellite-derived data and a numerical weather prediction model to improve intra-day solar forecasting Luis Mazorra Aguiar, B. Pereira, Philippe Lauret, F. Díaz,

More information

A direct normal irradiation forecasting model based on artificial neural networks

A direct normal irradiation forecasting model based on artificial neural networks Revue des Energies Renouvelables Vol. 19 N 1 (016) 1 8 A direct normal irradiation forecasting model based on artificial neural networks I. Belhaj, O. El Fatni, S. Barhmi and E.H. Saidi Laboratory of High

More information

SOLAR POWER FORECASTING BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS

SOLAR POWER FORECASTING BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz Energy Meteorology Group, Institute of Physics, Oldenburg University Workshop on Forecasting,

More information

2014 HIGHLIGHTS. SHC Task 46 is a five-year collaborative project with the IEA SolarPACES Programme and the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme.

2014 HIGHLIGHTS. SHC Task 46 is a five-year collaborative project with the IEA SolarPACES Programme and the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme. 2014 HIGHLIGHTS SHC Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting THE ISSUE Knowledge of solar energy resources is critical when designing, building and operating successful solar water heating systems, concentrating

More information

K-NN Decomposition Artificial Neural Network Models for Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data

K-NN Decomposition Artificial Neural Network Models for Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data K-NN Decomposition Artificial Neural Network Models for Global Solar Irradiance Forecasting Based on Meteorological Data Unit Three Kartini*, Chao Rong Chen National Taipei University of Technology,, Section.,

More information

Soleksat. a flexible solar irradiance forecasting tool using satellite images and geographic web-services

Soleksat. a flexible solar irradiance forecasting tool using satellite images and geographic web-services Soleksat a flexible solar irradiance forecasting tool using satellite images and geographic web-services Sylvain Cros, Mathieu Turpin, Caroline Lallemand, Quentin Verspieren, Nicolas Schmutz They support

More information

Solar Nowcasting with Cluster-based Detrending

Solar Nowcasting with Cluster-based Detrending Solar Nowcasting with Cluster-based Detrending Antonio Sanfilippo, Luis Pomares, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Nassma Mohandes, Dunia Bachour ICEM 2017 Oral Presentation 26-29June 2017, Bari, Italy Overview

More information

Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models

Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Senior Project Proposal 2102490 Year 2016 Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Vichaya Layanun ID 5630550721 Advisor: Assist. Prof. Jitkomut Songsiri

More information

Satellite-to-Irradiance Modeling A New Version of the SUNY Model

Satellite-to-Irradiance Modeling A New Version of the SUNY Model Satellite-to-Irradiance Modeling A New Version of the SUNY Model Richard Perez 1, James Schlemmer 1, Karl Hemker 1, Sergey Kivalov 1, Adam Kankiewicz 2 and Christian Gueymard 3 1 Atmospheric Sciences Research

More information

Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast

Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast Dr. Abhijit Basu (Integrated Research & Action for Development) Arideep Halder (Thinkthrough Consulting Pvt. Ltd.) September

More information

Energy produc-on forecas-ng based on renewable sources of energy

Energy produc-on forecas-ng based on renewable sources of energy Energy produc-on forecas-ng based on renewable sources of energy S. Leva Politecnico di Milano, Dipar1mento di Energia Via La Masa 34, 20156 Milano, Italy sonia.leva@polimi.it, www.solartech.polimi.it

More information

Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement

Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement Cristina Cornaro a,b, Marco Pierro a,e, Francesco Bucci a, Matteo De Felice d, Enrico Maggioni c, David Moser e,alessandro Perotto c,

More information

An application of MDLPF models for solar radiation forecasting

An application of MDLPF models for solar radiation forecasting International Journal of Smart Grid and Clean Energy An application of MDLPF models for solar radiation forecasting Emre Akarslan, Fatih Onur Hocaoglu * Afyon Kocatepe University, ANS Campus Engineering

More information

Improving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction

Improving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction Improving the accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction Bibek Joshi, Alistair Bruce Sproul, Jessie Kai Copper, Merlinde Kay Why solar power forecasting? Electricity grid

More information

Daily Global Solar Radiation estimation for Gran Canaria Island using Artificial Neural Networks

Daily Global Solar Radiation estimation for Gran Canaria Island using Artificial Neural Networks International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality (ICREPQ 16) Madrid (Spain), 4 th to 6 th May, 2016 exçxãtuäx XÇxÜzç tçw céãxü dâtä àç ]ÉâÜÇtÄ (RE&PQJ) ISSN 2172-038 X, No.14 May 2016 Daily

More information

COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL

COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL Ricardo Marquez Mechanical Engineering Applied Mechanics School of Engineering University of California Merced Merced, California 95343

More information

A benchmarking of machine learning techniques for solar radiation forecasting in an insular context

A benchmarking of machine learning techniques for solar radiation forecasting in an insular context A benchmarking of machine learning techniques for solar radiation forecasting in an insular context Philippe Lauret, Cyril Voyant, Ted Soubdhan, Mathieu David, Philippe Poggi To cite this version: Philippe

More information

Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models

Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Senior Project Proposal 2102499 Year 2016 Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Vichaya Layanun ID 5630550721 Advisor: Assist. Prof. Jitkomut Songsiri

More information

Shadow camera system for the validation of nowcasted plant-size irradiance maps

Shadow camera system for the validation of nowcasted plant-size irradiance maps Shadow camera system for the validation of nowcasted plant-size irradiance maps Pascal Kuhn, pascal.kuhn@dlr.de S. Wilbert, C. Prahl, D. Schüler, T. Haase, T. Hirsch, M. Wittmann, L. Ramirez, L. Zarzalejo,

More information

A Novel ARX-based Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Solar Power Forecast Model

A Novel ARX-based Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Solar Power Forecast Model A Novel ARX-based Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Solar Power Forecast Model Abstract In this paper an autoregressive with exogenous input (ARX) based spatio-temporal solar forecast model is proposed. Compared

More information

DRAFT: CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS

DRAFT: CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS Proceedings of the ASME 212 6th International Conference on Energy Sustainability & 1th Fuel Cell Science, Engineering and Technology Conference ES/FUELL 212 August 1-18, 212, San Diego, California, USA

More information

ENHANCING THE GEOGRAPHICAL AND TIME RESOLUTION OF NASA SSE TIME SERIES USING MICROSTRUCTURE PATTERNING

ENHANCING THE GEOGRAPHICAL AND TIME RESOLUTION OF NASA SSE TIME SERIES USING MICROSTRUCTURE PATTERNING ENHANCING THE GEOGRAPHICAL AND TIME RESOLUTION OF NASA TIME SERIES USING MICROSTRUCTURE PATTERNING Richard Perez and Marek Kmiecik, Atmospheric Sciences Research Center 251 Fuller Rd Albany, NY, 1223 Perez@asrc.cestm.albany,edu

More information

CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS

CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS CLOUD VELOCITY ESTIMATION FROM AN ARRAY OF SOLAR RADIATION MEASUREMENTS Juan L. Bosch Yuehai Zheng Jan Kleissl Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Center for Renewable Resources and Integration

More information

Localized Online Weather Predictions with Overnight Adaption

Localized Online Weather Predictions with Overnight Adaption Localized Online Weather Predictions with Overnight Adaption Michael Zauner 1, Michaela Killian 1, and Martin Kozek 1 Vienna University of Technology, Institute of Mechanics and Mechatronics, Getreidemarkt

More information

COMPARING PERFORMANCE OF SOLARGIS AND SUNY SATELLITE MODELS USING MONTHLY AND DAILY AEROSOL DATA

COMPARING PERFORMANCE OF SOLARGIS AND SUNY SATELLITE MODELS USING MONTHLY AND DAILY AEROSOL DATA COMPARING PERFORMANCE OF SOLARGIS AND SUNY SATELLITE MODELS USING MONTHLY AND DAILY AEROSOL DATA Tomas Cebecauer 1, Richard Perez 2 and Marcel Suri 1 1 GeoModel Solar, Bratislava (Slovakia) 2 State University

More information

Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network Abstract The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to

More information

MÉRA: Met Éireann ReAnalysis Global Shortwave Radiation

MÉRA: Met Éireann ReAnalysis Global Shortwave Radiation MÉRA: Met Éireann ReAnalysis Global Shortwave Radiation Emily Gleeson, Met Éireann Kristian Pagh Nielsen, DMI Eoin Whelan, Met Éireann Special thanks to the ALADIN- HIRLAM consortium Some facts about MÉRA

More information

Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Based on Multi-level Solar Measurements

Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Based on Multi-level Solar Measurements Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Based on Multi-level Solar Measurements Mohana Alanazi, Mohsen Mahoor, Amin Khodaei Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Denver Denver, USA mohana.alanazi@du.edu,

More information

Study on Impact of Solar Photovoltaic Generation by Atmospheric Variables

Study on Impact of Solar Photovoltaic Generation by Atmospheric Variables Installed capacity in MW K. Sreedhara Babu et al., International Journal of Research in Engineering, IT and Social Sciences, Study on Impact of Solar Photovoltaic Generation by Atmospheric Variables K.

More information

An Adaptive Multi-Modeling Approach to Solar Nowcasting

An Adaptive Multi-Modeling Approach to Solar Nowcasting An Adaptive Multi-Modeling Approach to Solar Nowcasting Antonio Sanfilippo, Luis Martin-Pomares, Nassma Mohandes, Daniel Perez-Astudillo, Dunia A. Bachour ICEM 2015 Overview Introduction Background, problem

More information

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service in a nutshell

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service in a nutshell The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) Radiation Service in a nutshell Issued by: M. Schroedter-Homscheidt, DLR Date: 17/02/2016 REF.: Service Contract No 2015/CAMS_72/SC1 This document has

More information

SUNY Satellite-to-Solar Irradiance Model Improvements

SUNY Satellite-to-Solar Irradiance Model Improvements SUNY Satellite-to-Solar Irradiance Model Improvements Higher-accuracy in snow and high-albedo conditions with SolarAnywhere Data v3 SolarAnywhere Juan L Bosch, Adam Kankiewicz and John Dise Clean Power

More information

SOLAR RADIATION FORECAST USING NEURAL NETWORKS FOR THE PREDICTION OF GRID CONNECTED PV PLANTS ENERGY PRODUCTION (DSP PROJECT)

SOLAR RADIATION FORECAST USING NEURAL NETWORKS FOR THE PREDICTION OF GRID CONNECTED PV PLANTS ENERGY PRODUCTION (DSP PROJECT) SOLAR RADIATION FORECAST USING NEURAL NETWORKS FOR THE PREDICTION OF GRID CONNECTED PV PLANTS ENERGY PRODUCTION (DSP PROJECT) C. Cornaro* #, F. Bucci*, M. Pierro*, F. Del Frate, S. Peronaci, A. Taravat

More information

Predic've Analy'cs for Energy Systems State Es'ma'on

Predic've Analy'cs for Energy Systems State Es'ma'on 1 Predic've Analy'cs for Energy Systems State Es'ma'on Presenter: Team: Yingchen (YC) Zhang Na/onal Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Andrey Bernstein, Rui Yang, Yu Xie, Anthony Florita, Changfu Li, ScoD

More information

Hourly solar irradiance forecasting based on machine learning models

Hourly solar irradiance forecasting based on machine learning models 2016 15th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications Hourly solar irradiance forecasting based on machine learning models Fateh Nassim MELZI IRT SystemX, 92400 Palaiseau, France

More information

Short and medium term solar irradiance and power forecasting given high penetration and a tropical environment

Short and medium term solar irradiance and power forecasting given high penetration and a tropical environment Short and medium term solar irradiance and power forecasting given high penetration and a tropical environment Wilfred WALSH, Zhao LU, Vishal SHARMA, Aloysius ARYAPUTERA 3 rd International Conference:

More information

HOW TYPICAL IS SOLAR ENERGY? A 6 YEAR EVALUATION OF TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY3)

HOW TYPICAL IS SOLAR ENERGY? A 6 YEAR EVALUATION OF TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY3) HOW TYPICAL IS SOLAR ENERGY? A 6 YEAR EVALUATION OF TYPICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA (TMY3) Matthew K. Williams Shawn L. Kerrigan Locus Energy 657 Mission Street, Suite 401 San Francisco, CA 94105 matthew.williams@locusenergy.com

More information

Country scale solar irradiance forecasting for PV power trading

Country scale solar irradiance forecasting for PV power trading Country scale solar irradiance forecasting for PV power trading The benefits of the nighttime satellite-based forecast Sylvain Cros, Laurent Huet, Etienne Buessler, Mathieu Turpin European power exchange

More information

Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids

Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids Review of solar irradiance forecasting methods and a proposition for small-scale insular grids Hadja Maïmouna Diagne, Mathieu David, Philippe Lauret, John Boland, Nicolas Schmutz To cite this version:

More information

Two-Stage Hybrid Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting

Two-Stage Hybrid Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Two-Stage Hybrid Day-Ahead Solar Forecasting Mohana Alanazi, Mohsen Mahoor, Amin Khodaei Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Denver Denver, USA mohana.alanazi@du.edu, mohsen.mahoor@du.edu,

More information

The skill of ECMWF cloudiness forecasts

The skill of ECMWF cloudiness forecasts from Newsletter Number 143 Spring 215 METEOROLOGY The skill of ECMWF cloudiness forecasts tounka25/istock/thinkstock doi:1.21957/lee5bz2g This article appeared in the Meteorology section of ECMWF Newsletter

More information

Wind tracing from SEVIRI clear and overcast radiance assimilation

Wind tracing from SEVIRI clear and overcast radiance assimilation Wind tracing from SEVIRI clear and overcast radiance assimilation Cristina Lupu and Tony McNally ECMWF, Reading, UK Slide 1 Outline Motivation & Objective Analysis impact of SEVIRI radiances and cloudy

More information

OPTIMISING THE TEMPORAL AVERAGING PERIOD OF POINT SURFACE SOLAR RESOURCE MEASUREMENTS FOR CORRELATION WITH AREAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES

OPTIMISING THE TEMPORAL AVERAGING PERIOD OF POINT SURFACE SOLAR RESOURCE MEASUREMENTS FOR CORRELATION WITH AREAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES OPTIMISING THE TEMPORAL AVERAGING PERIOD OF POINT SURFACE SOLAR RESOURCE MEASUREMENTS FOR CORRELATION WITH AREAL SATELLITE ESTIMATES Ian Grant Anja Schubert Australian Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289

More information

Solar Generation Prediction using the ARMA Model in a Laboratory-level Micro-grid

Solar Generation Prediction using the ARMA Model in a Laboratory-level Micro-grid Solar Generation Prediction using the ARMA Model in a Laboratory-level Micro-grid Rui Huang, Tiana Huang, Rajit Gadh Smart Grid Energy Research Center, Mechanical Engineering, University of California,

More information

Research Article Hybrid Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Neural Network with Air Quality Index

Research Article Hybrid Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Neural Network with Air Quality Index Hindawi International Photoenergy Volume 2017, Article ID 6938713, 9 pages https://doi.org/10.1155/2017/6938713 Research Article Hybrid Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Neural Network

More information

HOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION PREDICTION FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE

HOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION PREDICTION FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE HOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION PREDICTION FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATAHOURLY GLOBAL RADIATION PREDICTION FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATA Pierrick Haurant, Cyril Voyant, Marc Muselli, Marie Laure Nivet,

More information

Current best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy

Current best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy Current best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy Dr. Matthias Lange Stochastic Methods for Management and Valuation of Energy Storage in the Future German Energy System 17 March 2016 Overview

More information

PRODUCING SATELLITE-DERIVED IRRADIANCES IN COMPLEX ARID TERRAIN

PRODUCING SATELLITE-DERIVED IRRADIANCES IN COMPLEX ARID TERRAIN PRODUCING SATELLITE-DERIVED IRRADIANCES IN COMPLEX ARID TERRAIN Richard Perez ASRC, the University at Albany 251 Fuller Rd. Albany, NY 12203 perez@asrc.cestm.albany.edu Pierre Ineichen, CUEPE, University

More information

Short-term Solar Forecasting

Short-term Solar Forecasting Short-term Solar Forecasting Presented by Jan Kleissl, Dept of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego 2 Agenda Value of Solar Forecasting Total Sky Imagery for Cloud

More information

A methodology for DNI forecasting using NWP models and aerosol load forecasts

A methodology for DNI forecasting using NWP models and aerosol load forecasts 4 th INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ENERGY & METEOROLOGY A methodology for DNI forecasting using NWP models and aerosol load forecasts AEMET National Meteorological Service of Spain Arantxa Revuelta José

More information

3rd SFERA Summer School Solar resource forecasting

3rd SFERA Summer School Solar resource forecasting 3rd SFERA Summer School Solar resource forecasting M. Schroedter-Homscheidt (marion.schroedter-homscheidt@dlr.de) with contributions from G. Gesell, L. Klüser, H. Breitkreuz, A. Oumbe, N. Killius,T. Holzer-Popp

More information

Validation of Direct Normal Irradiance from Meteosat Second Generation. DNICast

Validation of Direct Normal Irradiance from Meteosat Second Generation. DNICast Validation of Direct Normal Irradiance from Meteosat Second Generation DNICast A. Meyer 1), L. Vuilleumier 1), R. Stöckli 1), S. Wilbert 2), and L. F. Zarzalejo 3) 1) Federal Office of Meteorology and

More information

Verification of sectoral cloud motion based global and direct normal irradiance nowcasting

Verification of sectoral cloud motion based global and direct normal irradiance nowcasting Verification of sectoral cloud motion based global and direct normal irradiance nowcasting Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Earth Observation Center (EOC) German Remote Sensing Data Center

More information

Solar Resource Mapping in South Africa

Solar Resource Mapping in South Africa Solar Resource Mapping in South Africa Tom Fluri Stellenbosch, 27 March 2009 Outline The Sun and Solar Radiation Datasets for various technologies Tools for Solar Resource Mapping Maps for South Africa

More information

A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance

A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance David John Gagne 1,2 Sue E. Haupt 1,3 Seth Linden 1 Gerry Wiener 1 1. NCAR RAL 2. University of Oklahoma 3. Penn State University

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2012 Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, I.P. (IPMA) 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are used as the main source of data for operational

More information

AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING DIRECT NORMAL, DIFFUSE HORIZONTAL AND GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCES USING SATELLITE IMAGES

AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING DIRECT NORMAL, DIFFUSE HORIZONTAL AND GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCES USING SATELLITE IMAGES AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK BASED APPROACH FOR ESTIMATING DIRECT NORMAL, DIFFUSE HORIZONTAL AND GLOBAL HORIZONTAL IRRADIANCES USING SATELLITE IMAGES Yehia Eissa Prashanth R. Marpu Hosni Ghedira Taha B.M.J.

More information

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Solar Radiation for Sustainable Research in the Presence of Uncertain Measurements

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Solar Radiation for Sustainable Research in the Presence of Uncertain Measurements Spatiotemporal Analysis of Solar Radiation for Sustainable Research in the Presence of Uncertain Measurements Alexander Kolovos SAS Institute, Inc. alexander.kolovos@sas.com Abstract. The study of incoming

More information

Recursive Estimation Methods to Forecast Short-Term Solar Irradiation

Recursive Estimation Methods to Forecast Short-Term Solar Irradiation Recursive Estimation Methods to Forecast Short-Term Solar Irradiation A. Martín and Juan R. Trapero Abstract Due to modern economies moving towards a more sustainable energy supply, solar power generation

More information

Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET)

Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET) Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET) Date: 10/25/2017 Purdue University Meteorological Tool (PUMET) allows users to download and visualize a variety of global meteorological databases, such as

More information

A New Predictive Solar Radiation Numerical Model

A New Predictive Solar Radiation Numerical Model A New Predictive Solar Radiation Numerical Model F. Díaz, G. Montero, J.M. Escobar, E. Rodríguez, R. Montenegro University Institute for Intelligent Systems and Numerical Applications in Engineering, University

More information

Development and testing of a new day-ahead solar power forecasting system

Development and testing of a new day-ahead solar power forecasting system Development and testing of a new day-ahead solar power forecasting system Vincent E. Larson, Ryan P. Senkbeil, and Brandon J. Nielsen Aerisun LLC WREF 2012 Motivation Day-ahead forecasts of utility-scale

More information

SOLAR ENERGY FORECASTING A PATHWAY FOR SUCCESSFUL RENEWABLE ENERGY INTEGRATION. (An ANN Based Model using NARX Model for forecasting of GHI)

SOLAR ENERGY FORECASTING A PATHWAY FOR SUCCESSFUL RENEWABLE ENERGY INTEGRATION. (An ANN Based Model using NARX Model for forecasting of GHI) IPS 2018 SOLAR ENERGY FORECASTING A PATHWAY FOR SUCCESSFUL RENEWABLE ENERGY INTEGRATION ABSTRACT (An ANN Based Model using NARX Model for forecasting of GHI) Manish Kumar Tikariha, DGM(Operations), NTPC

More information

Temporal global solar radiation forecasting using artificial neural network in Tunisian climate

Temporal global solar radiation forecasting using artificial neural network in Tunisian climate Temporal global solar radiation forecasting using artificial neural network in Tunisian climate M. LOGHMARI Ismail #1, M.Youssef TIMOUMI *2 # Mechanical engineering laboratory, National Engineering School

More information

THE ROAD TO BANKABILITY: IMPROVING ASSESSMENTS FOR MORE ACCURATE FINANCIAL PLANNING

THE ROAD TO BANKABILITY: IMPROVING ASSESSMENTS FOR MORE ACCURATE FINANCIAL PLANNING THE ROAD TO BANKABILITY: IMPROVING ASSESSMENTS FOR MORE ACCURATE FINANCIAL PLANNING Gwen Bender Francesca Davidson Scott Eichelberger, PhD 3TIER 2001 6 th Ave, Suite 2100 Seattle WA 98125 gbender@3tier.com,

More information

Multi-Plant Photovoltaic Energy Forecasting Challenge: Second place solution

Multi-Plant Photovoltaic Energy Forecasting Challenge: Second place solution Multi-Plant Photovoltaic Energy Forecasting Challenge: Second place solution Clément Gautrais 1, Yann Dauxais 1, and Maël Guilleme 2 1 University of Rennes 1/Inria Rennes clement.gautrais@irisa.fr 2 Energiency/University

More information

Hybrid solar forecasting method uses satellite imaging and ground telemetry as inputs to ANNs

Hybrid solar forecasting method uses satellite imaging and ground telemetry as inputs to ANNs Available online at www.sciencedirect.com Solar Energy 92 (23) 76 88 www.elsevier.com/locate/solener Hybrid solar forecasting method uses satellite imaging and ground telemetry as inputs to ANNs Ricardo

More information

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS

FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS FORECAST OF ENSEMBLE POWER PRODUCTION BY GRID-CONNECTED PV SYSTEMS Elke Lorenz*, Detlev Heinemann*, Hashini Wickramarathne*, Hans Georg Beyer +, Stefan Bofinger * University of Oldenburg, Institute of

More information

Pilot applications for Greece and Egypt related end-users

Pilot applications for Greece and Egypt related end-users GEO-CRADLE Project Meeting 2 16 th November, 2016 Pilot applications for Greece and Egypt related end-users Panagiotis Kosmopoulos & Hesham El-Askary National Observatory of Athens Chapman University Eratosthenes

More information

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009

Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Hungarian Meteorological Service 1. Summary of major highlights The objective verification of ECMWF forecasts have been continued on all the time ranges

More information

Calibration of ECMWF forecasts

Calibration of ECMWF forecasts from Newsletter Number 142 Winter 214/15 METEOROLOGY Calibration of ECMWF forecasts Based on an image from mrgao/istock/thinkstock doi:1.21957/45t3o8fj This article appeared in the Meteorology section

More information

The forecast skill horizon

The forecast skill horizon The forecast skill horizon Roberto Buizza, Martin Leutbecher, Franco Molteni, Alan Thorpe and Frederic Vitart European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts WWOSC 2014 (Montreal, Aug 2014) Roberto

More information

Towards an operational method for estimating Photosynthetically Active Radiation in clear-sky conditions on the Earth s surface

Towards an operational method for estimating Photosynthetically Active Radiation in clear-sky conditions on the Earth s surface Département Énergétique et Génie des Procédés Centre Observation, Impacts, Energy (O.I.E.) June 25th, 2015 Towards an operational method for estimating Photosynthetically Active Radiation in clear-sky

More information

Clustering and Prediction of Solar Radiation Daily Patterns

Clustering and Prediction of Solar Radiation Daily Patterns Int'l Conf. Data Mining DMIN'16 3 Clustering and Prediction of Solar Radiation Daily Patterns G. Nunnari 1, and S. Nunnari 1 1 Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica, Elettronica e Informatica, Universitá

More information

Short-Term Irradiance Forecasting Using an Irradiance Sensor Network, Satellite Imagery, and Data Assimilation

Short-Term Irradiance Forecasting Using an Irradiance Sensor Network, Satellite Imagery, and Data Assimilation Short-Term Irradiance Forecasting Using an Irradiance Sensor Network, Satellite Imagery, and Data Assimilation Antonio Lorenzo Dissertation Defense April 14, 2017 Problem & Hypothesis Hypothesis 1: ground

More information

GL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays

GL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays GL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays Require accurate wind (and hence power) forecasts for 4, 24 and 48 hours in the future for trading purposes. Receive 4

More information

Solar Power Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression

Solar Power Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression M. Abuella and B. Chowdhury, Solar Power Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression, in Proceedings of the American Society for Engineering Management International Annual Conference, 2016. Solar Power

More information

iafor The International Academic Forum

iafor The International Academic Forum Nowcasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance for an Equatorial-Based Location Using Artificial Neural Network and Machine Learning Kyairul Azmi Baharin, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Malaysia Hasimah Abd

More information

A PARTICLE FILTER APPROACH FOR SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATE USING SATELLITE IMAGE AND IN SITU DATA

A PARTICLE FILTER APPROACH FOR SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATE USING SATELLITE IMAGE AND IN SITU DATA 1 st EARSeL Workshop on Temporal Analysis of Satellite Images 28 A PARTICLE FILTER APPROACH FOR SOLAR RADIATION ESTIMATE USING SATELLITE IMAGE AND IN SITU DATA Laurent Linguet 1, Jamal Atif 2 1. University

More information

CLOUD NOWCASTING: MOTION ANALYSIS OF ALL-SKY IMAGES USING VELOCITY FIELDS

CLOUD NOWCASTING: MOTION ANALYSIS OF ALL-SKY IMAGES USING VELOCITY FIELDS CLOUD NOWCASTING: MOTION ANALYSIS OF ALL-SKY IMAGES USING VELOCITY FIELDS Yézer González 1, César López 1, Emilio Cuevas 2 1 Sieltec Canarias S.L. (Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain. Tel. +34-922356013,

More information

Evaluation of Time-Series, Regression and Neural Network Models for Solar Forecasting: Part I: One-Hour Horizon. Abstract

Evaluation of Time-Series, Regression and Neural Network Models for Solar Forecasting: Part I: One-Hour Horizon. Abstract Evaluation of Time-Series, Regression and Neural Network Models for Solar Forecasting: Part I: One-Hour Horizon Alireza Inanlougani, T.Agami Reddy and Srinivas Katiamula School of Computing, Informatics

More information

2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media,

2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, 2014 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising

More information

FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES. Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010

FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES. Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010 SHORT-TERM TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010 Integrating Renewable Energy» Variable

More information

Assimilation of Cloud Affected Infrared Radiances in HIRLAM 4D Var

Assimilation of Cloud Affected Infrared Radiances in HIRLAM 4D Var Assimilation of Cloud Affected Infrared Radiances in HIRLAM 4D Var Martin Stengel (Magnus Lindskog, Per Unden, Nils Gustafsson) ITSC XVII: Monterey, CA, 14 20 April 2010 Outline Methodology Observation

More information

Utilization of Forecast Models in High Temporal GOES Sounding Retrievals

Utilization of Forecast Models in High Temporal GOES Sounding Retrievals Utilization of Forecast Models in High Temporal GOES Sounding Retrievals Zhenglong Li, Jun Li, W. Paul Menzel, Steve Ackerman CIMSS/UW The CoRP Symposium Aug 12-13, 2008 Corvallis, OR Introduction: GOES

More information

Pilot applications for Egypt related end-users

Pilot applications for Egypt related end-users GEO-CRADLE Regional Workshop Thursday, 25 th May, 2017 Pilot applications for Egypt related end-users Hesham El-Askary Chapman University Panagiotis Kosmopoulos National Observatory of Athens Stelios Kazadzis

More information

Global Solar Dataset for PV Prospecting. Gwendalyn Bender Vaisala, Solar Offering Manager for 3TIER Assessment Services

Global Solar Dataset for PV Prospecting. Gwendalyn Bender Vaisala, Solar Offering Manager for 3TIER Assessment Services Global Solar Dataset for PV Prospecting Gwendalyn Bender Vaisala, Solar Offering Manager for 3TIER Assessment Services Vaisala is Your Weather Expert! We have been helping industries manage the impact

More information

ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community

ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community ECMWF global reanalyses: Resources for the wind energy community (and a few myth-busters) Paul Poli European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Shinfield Park, RG2 9AX, Reading, UK paul.poli

More information

way and atmospheric models

way and atmospheric models Scale-consistent consistent two-way way coupling of land-surface and atmospheric models COSMO-User-Seminar 9-11 March 2009 Annika Schomburg, Victor Venema, Felix Ament, Clemens Simmer TR / SFB 32 Objective

More information