Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC)
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1 Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC) DOC-NOAA-NWS
2 NWS Boston/Norton New Facility March 20 th 2018 NWS Boston/Norton 46 Commerce Way Norton, MA
3 Major Watersheds -Saint John -Penobscot -Androscoggin -Merrimack -Connecticut Housatonic Hoosic -Willimantic Yantic -Merrimack and Concord/Assabet -Charles and Neponset -Blackstone -Taunton -Pawtuxet and Paucatuck -Hudson -Mohawk and Schoharie -Lake Champlain -Genesse -Buffalo Creeks NERFC Service Area Includes Major Storm Tracks Ocean and Orographic Influences
4 Northeast River Forecast Center s Mar 30th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions Stream flow-groundwater-soil moisture Snowpack Conditions --- Ice Jams Antecedent Current Future precipitation forecasts Short and Medium Range Met Forecasts (significant events) Flood or Drought Outlook (Near term & Longer term) State of ENSO Seasonal Teleconnections
5 ENSO Conditions Weak La Nina to Neutral (La Nada)
6 Teleconnections Affect Precip/Temp Can Have Implications on River Flow El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki El Nino (EMI) Nino 3.4 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Arctic Oscillation (AO) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Pacific North American Index (PNA) SST Anomalies (SSTA) Pacific/Atlantic Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Stratospheric Trends and Temp Anomalies Solar Trends geomagnetic activity, solar flux, sunspots Pattern Persistence Analog Years 6
7 NESIS Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale Depth Area---Population Impacted NOAA Kocin/Uccellini Near 100 storms classified Near 5% Extreme Near 10% Crippling Blizzard 78 Major
8 Winter of NESIS Storms
9 Warmer Phase of La Nina Winter January and February Thaws over 30 locations in FLOOD -- Ice Jams Sentinel-3 Image cc by SA 3.0 IGO
10 30-Day (NERCC) Temperature Departures Precipitation % Temperature Departures Last 30 Days Many above normal locations Precipitation -- % of Normal Last 30 Days I-90 and South -- ABOVE Northern Basins Some Below
11 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) March 2 nd (left) vs March 28 (right)
12 Snow States March 29th 12
13 USGS Streamflow Conditions 7-Day Average Streamflow
14 USGS Groundwater Conditions
15 Soil Moisture Current Conditions Departures and Percentiles
16 Water Supply/Lake Levels Near and Above Normal MAINE Reservoirs Rangley -- >Normal Mooselookmeguntic -- >Normal Richardson -- >Normal Aziscohos Errol Flagstaff - > Normal Moosehead NORMAL Brassau - > Normal
17 Precipitation Forecast 2-Day and 7-Day
18 NERFC 72-Hr River Forecast Minor Riverine Flooding Forecast
19 Short-range Ensemble River Forecasts
20 Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) Little Falls on the Mohawk
21 Teleconnection Patterns AO--NAO--PNA
22 CPC Outlooks 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 6 to 10 day outlooks 8 to 14 day outlooks
23 HIGH and Dry March 18 th Surface and 500mb
24 Surface Prognosis 4/12 Gulf Moisture Warm Storm??
25 NERFC Winter Outlook March 29 Flood Potential -- Valid until April 13th A N A N
26 Northeast River Forecast Center s Next Outlook: Friday April 12 th 2018 Ed Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist NOAA/NWS/Northeast River Forecast Center
Northeast River Forecast Center s
Northeast River Forecast Center s Apr 13 th Spring Outlook Brought to you by: Edward Capone Service Coordination Hydrologist Overview to Include: Potential flood outlook convective/synoptic conditions
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