FORECAST UNCERTAINTY UNDER
|
|
- Christina Campbell
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 FORECAST UNCERTAINTY UNDER DIFFERENT LAND-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING REGIMES Hyo-Jong Song and Craig R. Ferguson Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY
2 BACKGROUND Takeaways from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiments GLACE-1: coupling could directly affect a model s ability to simulate climate predictability. GLACE-2: realistic soil moisture initialization could improve sub-seasonal 2 m air temperature forecasts for limited areas. GLACE-1/2: the sign of the coupling feedback and its absolute sensitivity (especially, of precipitation to soil wetness), including its variability as a function of surface and atmospheric state, is still UNQUANTIFIED.
3 MOTIVATION AND OBJECTIVE Key Questions: (1)What is the distinctive contrast in precipitation forecast performance under different coupling regimes? (2) What are the source sensitivities driving this behavior? Objectives: (1) Observe the contrast in forecast skill for convection system during wetand dry-coupling regimes. (2) Investigate how these errors are linked to land state (Soil Moisture, SM).
4 APPROACH (1) Perform daily classification of dry/wet-coupling regime using CFSR in CTP(convective triggering potential)-hi(humidity index)-sm(soil moisture) space following Roundy et al. (2013) (2) Select wet/dry cases with selection criteria: filled with 75% w/i Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain AND 65% w/i parent domain WRF DOMAIN Dry-Coupling Regime JUL 2006 (14days) Wet-Coupling Regime JUN 2007 (14days) SGP DOMAIN (75%) PARENT DOMAIN (65%) DRY WET (3) Use WRF-Noah (V3.6) to perform short-term (30hr) simulations and compare against best estimate truth (NARR and NLDAS-2-Noah) for SGP domain.
5 Model 12km spatial/ 43-levels vertical IC/BC: 3hrly NARR 32km/ 30 levels MODEL AND FORECAST CONFIGURATION Ferrier MP, RRTMG RAD, Monin-Obukov Surface Layer, MYJ PBL, Noah LSM, BMJ CONV Time sequencing Forecast strategy: 30-hr forecast from every -18LT (SGP Local Time) using I.C. & B.C. from NARR and early 6hr discarded for spin-up 06LT 12LT (Day -1) 12LT (Day 0) (spin-up) 06LT 12LT (Day 0) 12LT (Day 1) (spin-up)
6 NLDAS-2 WRF DIURNAL CYCLE IN SGP DOMAIN Event-averaged Diurnal Cycle Dry-Coupling: Dry bias in SM Wet-Coupling: Wet bias in SM PM AM +03LT-peak precipitation diurnal cycle of wet-coupling regime is distorted as around -12LT-peak in WRF-Noah simulation, while 00LT-peak of dry-coupling regime as -06LT-peak. Question: are these discrepancies related to initial SM (IC SM) bias, dry bias in dry-coupling regime and wet bias in wet-coupling regime?
7 BIAS IN ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION The timings of shallow convection in drycoupling regime and deep convection in wetcoupling regime are consistent with the precipitation peak of NLDAS-2. The downward motions of WRF bias (WRF-NARR, shading) around peak time under both coupling regimes well correspond to precipitation biases. Are these biases in convection and precipitation linked to initial SM (IC SM) bias? DRY-C bias IC SM WET-C bias IC SM
8 DEPENDENCY OF SURFACE FLUX VARIABILITY ON SM UNDER DIFFERENT COUPLING REGIMES NLDAS-2 (99%-Significant* Regression Coefficient) WRF (99%-Significant* Regression Coefficient) Dry-coupling regime: LHF shows strong dependency on the SM (947.71W/m2) in contrast to SHF ( W/m2) in NLDAS-2. This discrepancy is also observed in the result of WRF- Noah with exaggerated sensitivity (LHF: W/m2, SHF: W/m2). Wet-coupling regime: Regression coefficient of NLDAS-2 sensible heat flux ( W/m2) is larger in absolute value than that (447.74W/m2) of NLDAS-2. WRF-Noah shows the larger difference b/w SHF and LHF (SHF: W/m2, LHF: W/m2). 0-10cm SM (m3/m3) at -12LT
9 NLDAS-2 (99%-Significant* Regression Coefficient) DEPENDENCY OF LAND SURFACE VARIABILITY ON SM 2-m specific humidity (Q2) of dry-coupling regime shows strong dependency on the ontime SM (32.14g/kg) in contrast to that of wetcoupling regime (4.32g/kg) in NLDAS-2. This discrepancy is also observed in the result of WRF-Noah with exaggerated sensitivity (DRY-C: 39.08g/kg, WET-C: 7.60g/kg). WRF (99%-Significant* Regression Coefficient)
10 WET-C DRY-C Td ANOMALY CORRELATION WITH SM AT -12LT NARR (line, shading:99%-significance) T Td WRF (line, shading: 99%-Significance) T In dry-coupling regime, IC SM variability looks mainly contributing to thermodynamic structures by latent heat flux. In wet-coupling regime, it seems mainly modulating thermodynamic structures by sensible heat flux.
11 Td 00LT (NARR) T COMPOSITE ANALYSIS BASED ON SM AT -12LT: DRY-COUPLING Average(DRY-C) Drier(<-1sigma) Wetter(>+1sigma) CAPE 00LT (WRF) In the group of drier IC SM (<-1sigma) of NARR, reduced latent heat flux (LHF) makes LCL higher (Plcl=735hPa) than that of climatology (752hPa) and CAPE (1133J) smaller than 1900J. In the group of wetter IC SM (>+1sigma) of NARR, increased LHF makes LCL lower (794hPa) and CAPE larger (2156J). Thermodynamic variability of dry-coupling regime looks mainly controlled by latent heat flux, which is captured by WRF-Noah.
12 Td 00LT (NARR) T COMPOSITE ANALYSIS BASED ON SM AT -12LT: WET-COUPLING Average(WET-C) Drier(<-1sigma) Wetter(>+1sigma) CAPE 00LT (WRF) In the group of drier IC SM (<-1sigma) of NARR, increased heat flux makes the lowest-level T (~29C) larger than that of climatology (~28C) and CAPE (2939J) larger than 2392J. In the group of wetter IC SM (>+1sigma) of NARR, decreased heat flux makes the lowest-level T (~27C) smaller and CAPE (1752J) larger. Thermodynamic variability of wet-coupling regime seems mainly controlled by sensible heat flux, which is unclear in WRF result.
13 ANOMALLY CORRELATION WITH INITIAL SM (99%-SIGNIFICANCE) WRF NARR Anomaly correlation of LCL-PBLH with IC SM shows well-featured contrast, which helps explain the opposite-signed CAPE responses to IC SM under different regimes consistent with composite analysis results. DRY-C IC SM unfavorable to CONVECTION, WET-C IC SM unfavorable to CONVECTION But, in wet-coupling regime the anomaly correlation of LCL-PBLH in WRF-Noah forecast has lower significance than that of NARR.
14 SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION Where does the greatest contrast in precipitation forecast skill exist under L-A coupling? +03LT-peak precipitation diurnal cycle of wet-coupling regime is distorted as around -12LT-peak in WRF-Noah simulation, while 00LT-peak of dry-coupling regime as -06LTpeak. The biases of WRF-Noah in convection structures well correspond to these precipitation biases. In dry-coupling regime, the climatological convection of NARR and the bias of WRF- Noah are concentrated on relatively lower levels, while In wet-coupling regime, those exist overall through troposphere. How these errors are linked to initial SM (IC SM) bias? Dry-Coupling Regime: SM LCL-PBLH, CAPE ( Atmospheric Convection ) at precipitation peak time controlled by Latent Heat Flux (less sensitive to SHF) Wet-Coupling Regime: SM LCL-PBLH, CAPE ( Atmospheric Convection ) at precipitation peak time controlled by Sensible Heat Flux (less sensitive to LHF) Both responses in thermodynamic structure can be used to explain contribution of IC SM bias to the bias of atmospheric convection in the precipitation peak time.
Investigating the Impact of Land-PBL Coupling on the Water and Energy Cycle in NASA Model and Observation Products
Investigating the Impact of Land-PBL Coupling on the Water and Energy Cycle in NASA Model and Observation Products PI: Joseph A. Santanello, Jr. Hydrological Sciences Laboratory NASA-GSFC, Greenbelt, MD
More informationImproved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics
Improved rainfall and cloud-radiation interaction with Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus scheme in the tropics Tieh-Yong KOH 1 and Ricardo M. FONSECA 2 1 Singapore University of Social Sciences, Singapore 2
More informationEvaluating Parametrizations using CEOP
Evaluating Parametrizations using CEOP Paul Earnshaw and Sean Milton Met Office, UK Crown copyright 2005 Page 1 Overview Production and use of CEOP data Results SGP Seasonal & Diurnal cycles Other extratopical
More informationThe Texas drought. Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA
The 2011-2012 Texas drought Kingtse Mo Climate Prediction Center NWS/NCEP/NOAA 1 outline Evolution of the 2011-2012 Texas drought Climatology and historical perspective The 2011 drought Onset Feedback
More informationInfluences of PBL Parameterizations on Warm-Season Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations
Influences of PBL Parameterizations on Warm-Season Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations Stan Trier (NCAR/MMM) Andreas Prein (NCAR/ASP) and Changhai Liu (NCAR/RAL) GEWEX Convection-Permitting
More informationBoundary layer equilibrium [2005] over tropical oceans
Boundary layer equilibrium [2005] over tropical oceans Alan K. Betts [akbetts@aol.com] Based on: Betts, A.K., 1997: Trade Cumulus: Observations and Modeling. Chapter 4 (pp 99-126) in The Physics and Parameterization
More informationCHAPTER 8 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ITCZ OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND INDONESIA DURING A NORMAL YEAR AND DURING AN ENSO YEAR
CHAPTER 8 NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF THE ITCZ OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND INDONESIA DURING A NORMAL YEAR AND DURING AN ENSO YEAR In this chapter, comparisons between the model-produced and analyzed streamlines,
More informationLand Surface Processes and Interaction with the Atmosphere
Land Surface Processes and Interaction with the Atmosphere Paul Dirmeyer Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies George Mason University Fairfax, Virginia, USA Boundary Layer Modeling is Important! But
More informationTracking Seasonal Precipitation s Dependence on Root Zone Soil Moisture Using Regional Reanalysis
Tracking Seasonal Precipitation s Dependence on Root Zone Soil Moisture Using Regional Reanalysis Peter Goble Russ S. Schumacher and Nolan J. Doesken Colorado State University Background The atmosphere
More information4.4 EVALUATION OF AN IMPROVED CONVECTION TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN THE NCAR COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL CAM2 UNDER CAPT FRAMEWORK
. EVALUATION OF AN IMPROVED CONVECTION TRIGGERING MECHANISM IN THE NCAR COMMUNITY ATMOSPHERE MODEL CAM UNDER CAPT FRAMEWORK Shaocheng Xie, James S. Boyle, Richard T. Cederwall, and Gerald L. Potter Atmospheric
More informationChris Lennard. Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa
Chris Lennard Downscaling seasonal forecasts over South Africa Seasonal forecasting at CSAG Implemented new forecast system on a new computational platform...lots of blood, still bleeding United Kingdom
More informationThe Scale-dependence of Groundwater Effects on Precipitation and Temperature in the Central United States
The Scale-dependence of Groundwater Effects on Precipitation and Temperature in the Central United States Michael Barlage, Fei Chen, Changhai Liu NCAR/RAL Gonzalo Miguez-Macho U. Santiago de Compostela
More informationGABLS4 Results from NCEP Single Column Model
GABLS4 Results from NCEP Single Column Model Weizhong Zheng 1,2, Michael Ek 1,Ruiyu Sun 1,2 and Jongil Han 1,2 1 NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center(EMC), USA 2 IMSG@NOAA/NCEP/EMC, USA Email: Weizhong.Zheng@noaa.gov
More informationNational Center for Atmospheric Research,* Boulder, Colorado. (Manuscript received 22 June 2007, in final form 15 November 2007) ABSTRACT
JULY 2008 T R I E R E T A L. 2321 Sensitivity of the PBL and Precipitation in 12-Day Simulations of Warm-Season Convection Using Different Land Surface Models and Soil Wetness Conditions S. B. TRIER, F.
More informationA Study of Convective Initiation Failure on 22 Oct 2004
A Study of Convective Initiation Failure on 22 Oct 2004 Jennifer M. Laflin Philip N. Schumacher NWS Sioux Falls, SD August 6 th, 2011 Introduction Forecasting challenge: strong forcing for ascent and large
More informationKalimantan realistically (Figs. 8.23a-d). Also, the wind speeds of the westerly
suppressed rainfall rate (maximum vertical velocity) around 17 LST (Figs. 8.21a-b). These results are in agreement with previous studies (e. g., Emanuel and Raymond 1994). The diurnal variation of maximum
More informationUncertainties in planetary boundary layer schemes and current status of urban boundary layer simulations at OU
Uncertainties in planetary boundary layer schemes and current status of urban boundary layer simulations at OU Xiaoming Hu September 16 th @ 3:00 PM, NWC 5600 Contributors: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State
More informationLand Data Assimilation at NCEP NLDAS Project Overview, ECMWF HEPEX 2004
Dag.Lohmann@noaa.gov, Land Data Assimilation at NCEP NLDAS Project Overview, ECMWF HEPEX 2004 Land Data Assimilation at NCEP: Strategic Lessons Learned from the North American Land Data Assimilation System
More informationObjec4ves for this mee4ng
Modeling WG Update Objec4ves for this mee4ng Review some ongoing or developing integra4on ac4vi4es Develop ideas for integra4on papers Revise and redefine the objec4ves of this working group Short mee4ng
More informationThe Australian Summer Monsoon
The Australian Summer Monsoon Aurel Moise, Josephine Brown, Huqiang Zhang, Matt Wheeler and Rob Colman Australian Bureau of Meteorology Presentation to WMO IWM-IV, Singapore, November 2017 Outline Australian
More informationArctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies
Arctic System Reanalysis Provides Highresolution Accuracy for Arctic Studies David H. Bromwich, Aaron Wilson, Lesheng Bai, Zhiquan Liu POLAR2018 Davos, Switzerland Arctic System Reanalysis Regional reanalysis
More informationLand Surface Processes and Their Impact in Weather Forecasting
Land Surface Processes and Their Impact in Weather Forecasting Andrea Hahmann NCAR/RAL with thanks to P. Dirmeyer (COLA) and R. Koster (NASA/GSFC) Forecasters Conference Summer 2005 Andrea Hahmann ATEC
More informationA Modeling Study of Irrigation Effects on Surface Fluxes and Land Air Cloud Interactions in the Southern Great Plains
700 J O U R N A L O F H Y D R O M E T E O R O L O G Y VOLUME 14 A Modeling Study of Irrigation Effects on Surface Fluxes and Land Air Cloud Interactions in the Southern Great Plains YUN QIAN AND MAOYI
More informationJOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D15S16, doi: /2004jd005109, 2005
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110,, doi:10.1029/2004jd005109, 2005 Moisture and temperature balances at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Site in forecasts with the Community
More informationTheoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO
Theoretical and Modeling Issues Related to ISO/MJO Tim Li Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii DYNAMO workshop, April 13-14, Boulder, Colorado 1. MJO Initiation issue: Role of air- sea
More informationKirsten Findell (GFDL/NOAA) and Joe Santanello (NASA) Alpine Summer School on Land-Atmosphere Interactions Valsavarenche, Italy June 30, 2015
Kirsten Findell (GFDL/NOAA) and Joe Santanello (NASA) Alpine Summer School on Land-Atmosphere Interactions Valsavarenche, Italy June 30, 2015 1 Outline Diurnal Land-Atmosphere (L-A) Processes Local Coupling
More informationA Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Moist Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous Surface Fluxes
A Large-Eddy Simulation Study of Moist Convection Initiation over Heterogeneous Surface Fluxes Song-Lak Kang Atmospheric Science Group, Texas Tech Univ. & George H. Bryan MMM, NCAR 20 th Symposium on Boundary
More informationInfluence of variations in low-level moisture and soil moisture on the organization of summer convective systems in the US Midwest
Influence of variations in low-level moisture and soil moisture on the organization of summer convective systems in the US Midwest Jimmy O. Adegoke 1, Sajith Vezhapparambu 1, Christopher L. Castro 2, Roger
More informationAssessment of the Noah LSM with Multi-parameterization Options (Noah-MP) within WRF
Assessment of the Noah LSM with Multi-parameterization Options (Noah-MP) within WRF Michelle Harrold, Jamie Wolff, and Mei Xu National Center for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Laboratory and
More informationPredictability of convective precipitation: Convection permitting ensemble simulations
Predictability of convective precipitation: Convection permitting ensemble simulations Vera Maurer, Norbert Kalthoff, and Leonhard Gantner Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research () KIT University
More informationMPAS Atmospheric Boundary Layer Simulation under Selected Stability Conditions: Evaluation using the SWIFT dataset
MPAS Atmospheric Boundary Layer Simulation under Selected Stability Conditions: Evaluation using the SWIFT dataset Rao Kotamarthi, Yan Feng, and Jiali Wang Argonne National Laboratory & MMC Team Motivation:
More informationImproved Atmospheric Stable Boundary Layer Formulations for Navy Seasonal Forecasting
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Improved Atmospheric Stable Boundary Layer Formulations for Navy Seasonal Forecasting Michael Tjernström Department of
More informationGE G Climate Science Lab
GE G Climate Science Lab North American Soil Moisture Database: Development and Applications Steven M. Quiring Texas A&M University Trenton Ford Texas A&M University http://climatology.tamu.edu http://facebook.com/geogcsl
More informationSensitivity to the PBL and convective schemes in forecasts with CAM along the Pacific Cross-section
Sensitivity to the PBL and convective schemes in forecasts with CAM along the Pacific Cross-section Cécile Hannay, Jeff Kiehl, Dave Williamson, Jerry Olson, Jim Hack, Richard Neale and Chris Bretherton*
More informationUnified Cloud and Mixing Parameterizations of the Marine Boundary Layer: EDMF and PDF-based cloud approaches
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Unified Cloud and Mixing Parameterizations of the Marine Boundary Layer: EDMF and PDF-based cloud approaches Joao Teixeira
More informationSensitivity to the CAM candidate schemes in climate and forecast runs along the Pacific Cross-section
Sensitivity to the CAM candidate schemes in climate and forecast runs along the Pacific Cross-section Cécile Hannay, Dave Williamson, Jerry Olson, Jim Hack, Jeff Kiehl, Richard Neale and Chris Bretherton*
More informationTowards cloud-resolving regional climate simulations over the Alpine region
Towards cloud-resolving regional climate simulations over the Alpine region Hohenegger Cathy P. Brockhaus, C. Bretherton, C. Schär Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich History of RCMs
More informationPrecipitation Simulations Using WRF as a Nested Regional Climate Model
2152 J O U R N A L O F A P P L I E D M E T E O R O L O G Y A N D C L I M A T O L O G Y VOLUME 48 Precipitation Simulations Using WRF as a Nested Regional Climate Model MELISSA S. BUKOVSKY School of Meteorology,
More informationModel Error and Parameter Estimation in a Simplied Mesoscale Prediction Framework, Part I:
Model Error and Parameter Estimation in a Simplied Mesoscale Prediction Framework, Part I: Model Description and Sources of Uncertainty Guillaume Vernieres, Josh Hacker, Montse Fuentes Topics Mesoscale
More informationNumerical Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Seasonality over the Western North Pacific
Numerical Experiments of Tropical Cyclone Seasonality over the Western North Pacific Dong-Kyou Lee School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Seoul National University, Korea Contributors: Suk-Jin Choi,
More informationLecture 7: The Monash Simple Climate
Climate of the Ocean Lecture 7: The Monash Simple Climate Model Dr. Claudia Frauen Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW) claudia.frauen@io-warnemuende.de Outline: Motivation The GREB
More informationImplementation of Land Information System in the NCEP Operational Climate Forecast System CFSv2. Jesse Meng, Michael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Helin Wei
Implementation of Land Information System in the NCEP Operational Climate Forecast System CFSv2 Jesse Meng, Michael Ek, Rongqian Yang, Helin Wei 1 Outline NCEP CFSRR Land component CFSv1 vs CFSv2 Land
More informationFlux Tower Data Quality Analysis. Dea Doklestic
Flux Tower Data Quality Analysis Dea Doklestic Motivation North American Monsoon (NAM) Seasonal large scale reversal of atmospheric circulation Occurs during the summer months due to a large temperature
More information1. Header Land-Atmosphere Predictability Using a Multi-Model Strategy Paul A. Dirmeyer (PI) Zhichang Guo (Co-I) Final Report
1. Header Land-Atmosphere Predictability Using a Multi-Model Strategy Paul A. Dirmeyer (PI) Zhichang Guo (Co-I) Final Report 2. Results and Accomplishments Output from multiple land surface schemes (LSS)
More informationIntroduction to climate modeling. ECOLMAS Course 1-4 April 2008
Introduction to climate modeling ECOLMAS Course 1-4 April 2008 Course description Goal: To equipe you with a comfortable basic knowledge in the trade of climate modeling Course web site: http://www.geo.unibremen.de/~apau/ecolmas_modeling2
More informationThe Planetary Boundary Layer and Uncertainty in Lower Boundary Conditions
The Planetary Boundary Layer and Uncertainty in Lower Boundary Conditions Joshua Hacker National Center for Atmospheric Research hacker@ucar.edu Topics The closure problem and physical parameterizations
More information2.1 Temporal evolution
15B.3 ROLE OF NOCTURNAL TURBULENCE AND ADVECTION IN THE FORMATION OF SHALLOW CUMULUS Jordi Vilà-Guerau de Arellano Meteorology and Air Quality Section, Wageningen University, The Netherlands 1. MOTIVATION
More informationImplementation and validation of the. ECMWF IFS convection scheme. in COSMO-CLM. Peter Brockhaus. Daniel Lüthi. Christoph Schär
Implementation and validation of the ECMWF IFS convection scheme in COSMO-CLM Peter Brockhaus Peter Bechtold Daniel Lüthi Oliver Fuhrer Christoph Schär (ETH) (ECMWF) (ETH) (MeteoSwiss) (ETH) COSMO/CLM
More informationDownscaling and Probability
Downscaling and Probability Applications in Climate Decision Aids May 11, 2011 Glenn Higgins Manager, Environmental Sciences and Engineering Department Downscaling and Probability in Climate Modeling The
More informationMESA Modeling and Data Assimilation. MESA modeling group: I. Cavalcanti, A. Seth, C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, V. Misra
MESA Modeling and Data Assimilation MESA modeling group: I. Cavalcanti, A. Seth, C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, V. Misra MESA modeling objectives Model Assessment Model Development Hypothesis Testing RESULTS OF
More informationAttribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the US Southern Great Plains
Attribution of Surface Radiation Biases in NWP and Climate Models near the US Southern Great Plains Kwinten Van Weverberg, Cyril Morcrette, Hsi-Yen Ma, J. Petch, S.A. Klein, C. Zhang, S. Xie, Q. Tang,
More informationDevelopment and Validation of Polar WRF
Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Development and Validation of Polar WRF David H. Bromwich 1,2, Keith M. Hines 1, and Le-Sheng Bai 1 1 Polar
More informationAssimilation in the PBL
Assimilation in the PBL Joshua Hacker hacker@ucar.edu National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Program Data Assimilation Initiative review, Sept 2004 p.1/17 Outline DAI in my world
More informationNear-surface weather prediction and surface data assimilation: challenges, development, and potential data needs
Near-surface weather prediction and surface data assimilation: challenges, development, and potential data needs Zhaoxia Pu Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah,
More informationPreliminary Experiences with the Multi Model Air Quality Forecasting System for New York State
Preliminary Experiences with the Multi Model Air Quality Forecasting System for New York State Prakash Doraiswamy 1, Christian Hogrefe 1,2, Winston Hao 2, Brian Colle 3, Mark Beauharnois 1, Ken Demerjian
More informationUsing observations to constrain climate project over the Amazon - Preliminary results and thoughts
Using observations to constrain climate project over the Amazon - Preliminary results and thoughts Rong Fu & Wenhong Li Georgia Tech. & UT Austin CCSM Climate Variability Working Group Session June 19,
More informationInvestigation of surface layer parameterization in WRF model & its impact on modeled nocturnal wind biases
Investigation of surface layer parameterization in WRF model & its impact on modeled nocturnal wind biases Pius Lee 1, Fantine Ngan 1,2, Hang Lei 1,2, Li Pan 1,2, Hyuncheol Kim 1,2, and Daniel Tong 1,2
More informationLand Analysis in the NOAA CFS Reanalysis. Michael Ek, Ken Mitchell, Jesse Meng Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, and George Gayno
Land Analysis in the NOAA CFS Reanalysis Michael Ek, Ken Mitchell, Jesse Meng Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, and George Gayno 1 Outline CFS Reanalysis execution Land surface model upgrade from OSU to Noah LIS/GLDAS
More informationSub-grid parametrization in the ECMWF model
Sub-grid parametrization in the ECMWF model Anton Beljaars Thanks to: Gianpaolo Balsamo, Peter Bechtold, Richard Forbes, Thomas Haiden, Marta Janiskova and Irina Sandu WWOSC: Parametrization at ECMWF Slide
More informationWRF Land Surface Schemes and Paris Air Quality
WRF Land Surface Schemes and Paris Air Quality D. Khvorostyanov, L. Menut, Ch. Zheng, J.-C. Dupont, M. Haeffelin Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique IPSL Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau, France
More informationDownscaling West African climate: uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability
Downscaling West African climate: uncertainties, sensitivity to the model physics and regional variability Benjamin Pohl, Johanna Ramarohetra, Benjamin Sultan, Arona Diedhiou, Gaëlle de Coëtlogon, Serge
More informationDiagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS)
Diagnosing the Climatology and Interannual Variability of North American Summer Climate with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) Christopher L. Castro and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. Department of
More informationModeling the Arctic Climate System
Modeling the Arctic Climate System General model types Single-column models: Processes in a single column Land Surface Models (LSMs): Interactions between the land surface, atmosphere and underlying surface
More informationCPTEC and NCEP Model Forecast Drift and South America during the Southern Hemisphere Summer
CPTEC and NCEP Model Forecast Drift and South America during the Southern Hemisphere Summer José Antonio Aravéquia 1 Pedro L. Silva Dias 2 (1) Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Research National
More informationIdentifying Blizzards in Present and Future Climates. 3 May 2017 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop. Dr.
Identifying Blizzards in Present and Future Climates 3 May 2017 Climate Prediction Applications Science Workshop Dr. Aaron Kennedy Brooke Hagenhoff University of North Dakota Supported by: NSF project
More informationNumerical modelling of the interaction of soil moisture with planetary boundary layer features and convection over West Africa
Numerical modelling of the interaction of soil moisture with planetary boundary layer features and convection over West Africa Leonhard Gantner, Norbert Kalthoff, and Martin Kohler Photo: J. Schwendike
More informationIITM Earth System Model (IITM ESM)
IITM Earth System Model (IITM ESM) Swapna Panickal Centre for Climate Change Research Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ESM Team: R. Krishnan, V. Prajeesh, N. Sandeep, V. Ramesh, D.C. Ayantika,
More informationLand data assimilation in the NASA GEOS-5 system: Status and challenges
Blueprints for Next-Generation Data Assimilation Systems Boulder, CO, USA 8-10 March 2016 Land data assimilation in the NASA GEOS-5 system: Status and challenges Rolf Reichle Clara Draper, Ricardo Todling,
More informationEvaluating parameterized variables in the Community Atmospheric Model along the GCSS Pacific cross-section
Evaluating parameterized variables in the Community Atmospheric Model along the GCSS Pacific cross-section Cécile Hannay, Dave Williamson, Rich Neale, Jerry Olson, Dennis Shea National Center for Atmospheric
More informationDROUGHT, HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CLIMATE. Ronald Stewart University of Manitoba
DROUGHT, HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND CLIMATE Ronald Stewart University of Manitoba 2000-2009 TOP WEATHER STORIES 1.Vanishing Arctic ice in 2007. 2. B.C.'s year of disastrous weather -- fires, floods and freezes
More informationJoseph M. Shea 1, R. Dan Moore, Faron S. Anslow University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada. 1 Introduction
17th Conference on Applied Climatology, American Meteorological Society, 11-1 August, 28, Whistler, BC, Canada P2. - Estimating meteorological variables within glacier boundary layers, Southern Coast Mountains,
More informationANNUAL WRF SIMULATIONS FOR THE UTAH BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT S AIR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (ARMS) AIR QUALITY MODELING
ANNUAL WRF SIMULATIONS FOR THE UTAH BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENT S AIR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT STRATEGY (ARMS) AIR QUALITY MODELING Kenneth Craig*, Stephen Reid, Garnet Erdakos Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma,
More informationImpact of sea surface temperatures on African climate. Alessandra Giannini
Impact of sea surface temperatures on African climate Alessandra Giannini alesall@iri.columbia.edu Outline: Intro/Motivation: demand-driven science, use of seasonal climate prediction, adaptation to climate
More informationHail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States
Hail and the Climate System: Large Scale Environment Relationships for the Continental United States 1979-2012 John T. Allen jallen@iri.columbia.edu Co-author: Michael K. Tippett WWOSC 2014, Thursday August
More informationShort Term forecasts along the GCSS Pacific Cross-section: Evaluating new Parameterizations in the Community Atmospheric Model
Short Term forecasts along the GCSS Pacific Cross-section: Evaluating new Parameterizations in the Community Atmospheric Model Cécile Hannay, Dave Williamson, Jerry Olson, Rich Neale, Andrew Gettelman,
More informationClimate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming
Climate Dynamics (PCC 587): Hydrologic Cycle and Global Warming D A R G A N M. W. F R I E R S O N U N I V E R S I T Y O F W A S H I N G T O N, D E P A R T M E N T O F A T M O S P H E R I C S C I E N C
More informationImproving the representation of the Greater Arctic with ASRv2. D. H. Bromwich and many collaborators
Improving the representation of the Greater Arctic with ASRv2 D. H. Bromwich and many collaborators 5 th International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5) Rome, Italy 14 November 2017 Importance of an Arctic-focused
More informationClimate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities
Climate Change and Arizona s Rangelands: Management Challenges and Opportunities Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension
More informationImpact of vegetation cover estimates on regional climate forecasts
Impact of vegetation cover estimates on regional climate forecasts Phillip Stauffer*, William Capehart*, Christopher Wright**, Geoffery Henebry** *Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, South Dakota School
More informationNCEP Land-Surface Modeling
NCEP Land-Surface Modeling Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology Team Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 5200 Auth Road, Room 207 Suitland, Maryland
More informationANALYSIS OF THE MPAS CONVECTIVE-PERMITTING PHYSICS SUITE IN THE TROPICS WITH DIFFERENT PARAMETERIZATIONS OF CONVECTION REMARKS AND MOTIVATIONS
ANALYSIS OF THE MPAS CONVECTIVE-PERMITTING PHYSICS SUITE IN THE TROPICS WITH DIFFERENT PARAMETERIZATIONS OF CONVECTION Laura D. Fowler 1, Mary C. Barth 1, K. Alapaty 2, M. Branson 3, and D. Dazlich 3 1
More informationWater Balance in the Murray-Darling Basin and the recent drought as modelled with WRF
18 th World IMACS / MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia 13-17 July 2009 http://mssanz.org.au/modsim09 Water Balance in the Murray-Darling Basin and the recent drought as modelled with WRF Evans, J.P. Climate
More informationMJO Discussion. Eric Maloney Colorado State University. Thanks: Matthew Wheeler, Adrian Matthews, WGNE MJOTF
MJO Discussion Eric Maloney Colorado State University Thanks: Matthew Wheeler, Adrian Matthews, WGNE MJOTF Intraseasonal OLR and Precipitation Variance Sobel et al. (2010) Peatman et al. (2013) MJO cycle
More informationMotivation & Goal. We investigate a way to generate PDFs from a single deterministic run
Motivation & Goal Numerical weather prediction is limited by errors in initial conditions, model imperfections, and nonlinearity. Ensembles of an NWP model provide forecast probability density functions
More informationValidation of the JRA-55 based data set: Comparison with buoy observations
Validation of the JRA-55 based data set: Comparison with buoy observations Hiroyuki TOMITA (Nagoya University) tomita@hyarc.nagoya-u.ac.jp 2016.01.14 OMDP extended meeting JAMSTEC@Yokohama Objectives IN
More information+ Validation of a simplified land surface model and
+ Validation of a simplified land surface model and its application to the case of shallow cumulus convection development Colorado State University January 2013 Marat Khairoutdinov Jungmin Lee Simplified
More informationUniversity of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom. 2 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Exeter, United Kingdom.
9.1 RUNNING A CLIMATE MODEL IN FORECAST MODE TO IDENTIFY THE SOURCE OF TROPICAL CLIMATE ERRORS: WITH SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO THE DRY BIAS OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT IN AN ATMOSPHERE ONLY GCM 1 Jane Strachan,
More informationSpatial variability of summer precipitation related to the dynamics of the Great Plains low-level jet
Spatial variability of summer precipitation related to the dynamics of the Great Plains low-level jet Bing Pu and Robert E. Dickinson Department of Geological Sciences, Jackson School of Geosciences The
More informationDiagnosis of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U.S. Southern Great Plains in the GFDL climate model using a weather forecasting approach
Click Here for Full Article GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L18805, doi:10.1029/2006gl027567, 2006 Diagnosis of the summertime warm and dry bias over the U.S. Southern Great Plains in the GFDL climate
More informationImpact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation
Impact of Eurasian spring snow decrement on East Asian summer precipitation Renhe Zhang 1,2 Ruonan Zhang 2 Zhiyan Zuo 2 1 Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University 2 Chinese Academy of Meteorological
More informationThe Community Noah LSM with Multi-physics Options
The Community Noah LSM with Multi-physics Options Guo-Yue Niu Collaborators: ZL Yang, KE Mitchell, F Chen, MB Ek, M. Barlage, L. Longuevergne, A Kumar, K Manning, D Niyogi, E Rosero, M Tewari, and Y. Xia
More informationThe Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier
The Maritime Continent as a Prediction Barrier for the MJO Augustin Vintzileos EMC/NCEP SAIC Points to take back home. Forecast of the MJO is at, average, skillful for lead times of up to circa 2 weeks.
More informationUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA
UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA Methods of Improving Methane Emission Estimates in California Using Mesoscale and Particle Dispersion Modeling Alex Turner GCEP SURE Fellow Marc L. Fischer Lawrence Berkeley National
More informationUrban regional precipitation simulations - comparison of pseudo-global-warming with local forcing
Urban regional precipitation simulations - comparison of pseudo-global-warming with local forcing Christopher C. Holst Johnny C. L. Chan 24 May 2017 Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre City
More informationRecent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets
Recent Trends in Northern and Southern Hemispheric Cold and Warm Pockets Abstract: Richard Grumm National Weather Service Office, State College, Pennsylvania and Anne Balogh The Pennsylvania State University
More informationJuly November 2011 Highlights
July November 2011 Highlights Program Manager: J. En6n (NASA HQ) Project Scien6st: P. Houser (GMU) Sr. Project Scien6st: R. Schiffer (USRA) Focus Area Liaison: D. Belvedere (USRA) NEWS Working Group Co
More informationReport on EN2 DTC Ensemble Task 2015: Testing of Stochastic Physics for use in NARRE
Report on EN2 DTC Ensemble Task 2015: Testing of Stochastic Physics for use in NARRE Motivation: With growing evidence that initial- condition uncertainties are not sufficient to entirely explain forecast
More informationGlobal climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues
www.bsc.es Ispra, 23 May 2017 Global climate predictions: forecast drift and bias adjustment issues Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes BSC Earth Sciences Department and ICREA Many of the ideas in this presentation
More informationSlow Drivers and the Climatology of Precipitation
Slow Drivers and the Climatology of Precipitation Bjorn Stevens (selections from work in progress with Traute Crueger, Cathy Hohenegger, Benjamin Möbis, Dagmar Popke and Aiko Voigt) This is a different
More informationUse of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America
Use of the Combined Pacific Variability Mode for Climate Prediction in North America Christopher L. Castro,, Stephen Bieda III, and Francina Dominguez University of Arizona Regional Climate Forum for Northwest
More information