Supplementary information of Weather types across the Caribbean basin and their relationship with rainfall and sea surface temperature

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1 Climate Dynamics manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Supplementary information of Weather types across the Caribbean basin and their relationship with rainfall and sea surface temperature Vincent Moron Isabelle Gouirand Michael Taylor the date of receipt and acceptance should be inserted later Vincent Moron CEREGE, UM34 CNRS, Aix-Marseille University Aix en Provence, France Tel.: Fax: IRI, Columbia University Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, New York, USA Isabelle Gouirand University of the West-Indies Cave Hill, Barbados Michael A. Taylor University of the West Indies Mona Campus, Jamaica

2 2 Vincent Moron et al All WT 1 WT 2 WT 3 WT 7 WT 8 CDF of North Atlantic Oscillation Index in Dec. March.7.6 F(x) daily NAO standardized index Fig. 1 Cumulative Distribution Function of the daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index in December March NAO index is extracted from CPC ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b511.current.ascii and has been standardized to zero mean and unit variance on the whole December-March period.

3 Title Suppressed Due to Excessive Length (a) Anomalies of U & omega for WT 4 averaged over 1N N (b) Anomalies of V & omega for WT 4 averaged over 65W 8W (c) Anomalies of U & omega for WT 5 averaged over 1N N (d) Anomalies of V & omega for WT 5 averaged over 65W 8W (e) Anomalies of U & omega for WT 6 averaged over 1N N (f) Anomalies of V & omega for WT 6 averaged over 65W 8W Fig. 2 (a,c,e) vertical-zonal composite mean of zonal and vertical wind anomalies averaged between 1 N and N for WTs 4 6 and (b,d,f) vertical-meridional composite mean of meridional and vertical wind anomalies averaged between 65 W and 8 W for the eight WTs defined using k-means clustering of the standardized anomalies of hpa winds and daily OLR projected onto the leading 18 EOFs for the period The anomalies are computed as deviations from the mean annual cycle, i.e. the average of climatological daily mean of OLR and winds weighted by the climatological daily frequency of a given WT. The significance is computed by using 1 random permutations of nonoverlapping blocks of 15 days of daily WT sequences amongst the 35 years ( ) to account for the mean seasonal cycle, i.e. taken at the same stage of the cycle, and shown as color (vertical wind) and vectors (zonal and meridional wind) only when vertical, zonal or meridional components of the wind are above two-sided 99% level of significance.

4 4 Vincent Moron et al. (a) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (c) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (e) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (g) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (b) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (d) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (f) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 (h) WT Year() Year(+1) 1/15 4/14 7/13 1/11 1/9 4/9 7/8 1/6 1/4 Fig. 3 Anomalies of the WT frequency on running 31-day windows for 7 warm central (orange) and 3 warm eastern (magenta) El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. ENSO events are defined from the mean SST anomalies averaged over 16 E- E, 5 N-5 S in October-March with warm events having SSTA.5 C and the WT anomalies are computed from January 1st of year() to December 31st of year(+1). The difference between central and eastern events is defined from the one between central (16 E-21 E, 5 N-5 S) and eastern ( E- E, 5 N-5 S), i.e. central events have warmer anomalies over the central box. The orange and magenta dots indicate significant anomalies at the two-sided 95% level from a Monte Carlo sampling of 7 (warm central) and 3 (warm eastern) events in the 35 years.

5 Title Suppressed Due to Excessive Length 5 (a) Mean SST in deg C 3 o N o N 18 o N 12 o N 6 o N o 15 o W 9 o W 75 o W 6 o W 45 o W 31 (b) Mean daily variations deg C GMEX CAR 21 PAC NINO 2 1/1 2/15 3/31 5/15 6/ 8/13 9/ 11/11 12/ Fig. 4 (a) mean annual sea surface temperatures in C superimposed on the area corresponding to three SST indices, i.e. Caribbean Sea (in red), Gulf of Mexico (in blue) and Pacific (in black). The Niño 3.4 (in green) box is outside the geographical window. (b) mean daily (+/ 1 std in dashed lines) sea surface temperature in C of the four SST indices.

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society

Thai Meteorological Department, Ministry of Digital Economy and Society Three-month Climate Outlook For November 2017 January 2018 Issued on 31 October 2017 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------