Impact of the 2008 tropical cyclone season on the Baja California Peninsula
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1 Impact of the 2008 tropical cyclone season on the Baja California Peninsula Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE) Luis M. Farfán Julio August 24, 1830UTC Lowell Norbert September 10, 2130UTC October 10, 2100UTC
2 Tracks of (814) tropical cyclones:
3 Monthly distribution of tracks ( ) May Far away at the beginning and end of the season Closer to the coast in August and October June July August Julio September Lowell October Norbert November
4 I Track distributions with respect to Baja California ( ) En tierra, 26 casos 6.8 % II < 400 km, 31 casos 8.1 % Julio Lowell Norbert III km, 147 casos 38.3 % Liza (1976) IV km, 180 casos 46.9 %
5 Track distributions with respect to landfall sites over northwestern Mexico ( ): a) through the Baja California peninsula (27 cases) b) through the mainland (25 cases) a) b) JUL AUG SEP OCT 0 JUL AUG SEP OCT Most intense 1) Kiko, 1989, 184 2) Paul, 1982, 184 3) John, 2006, 177 3a) Norbert, 2008, 169 4) Henriette, 1995, 158 5) Marty, 2003, 158 Most intense 1) Olivia, 1975, 223 2) Kenna, 2002, 223 3) Lane, 2006, 205 4) Liza, 1976, 184 5) Tico, 1983, 173
6 Some remarkable features from previous seasons or single systems 1984: Genevieve, Norbert, Polo 1992: 24 systems over the basin 1976: Liza, many deaths 2001: Juliette, rainfall records
7 Tracks of (16) tropical cyclones: May-October made landfall (Julio,Lowell,Norbert) 4 in km range (Douglas,Fausto,Iselle,Karina) 6 in km range (Boris,Elida,Genevieve,Hernan,Marie,Odile)
8 Tropical Storm Julio: August 23-25
9 Geoestationary satelite (GOES) to identify damage potential Infrared channel imagery is used. Spatial and temporal resolution: 4 km, 30 min. Highest cloud tops are selected. Product is useful to determine areas where heavy precipitation developed. Advantage: process takes only a couple of minutes!
10 Tropical Storm Julio: August mm 162 mm 195 mm 155 mm 198 mm 14 mm 48 mm 118 mm Rainfall accumulation (mm) NHC official forecasts
11 Tropical Storm Julio: August % % % 99.7% % 7.7 % 19.7 % 46.5 % % respect to annual climatology NHC official forecasts
12 Tropical Storm Lowell: September 9-11
13 Satellite imagery composite September 9-11, 2008
14 Composites from satellite imagery to identify potential of deep convection (rainfall reports from CNA stations) Day 1, Lowell recurves toward NW Mexico (135 mm) (40 mm) (96 mm) Day 2, landfall over southern Baja Calif. Day 3, development over southern gulf Day 2: Sep/10-11 (145 mm) (90 mm) (97 mm) (60 mm) Day 1: Sep/09-10 Day 3: Sep/11-12
15
16 NHC official forecasts 21 forecasts were issued. First landfall: Sunday Sep/7/09PM, 4.1 days in advance. Before 12 hours O 24 hours X 48 hours 72 hours Sep/11/09UTC Large cities Tropical Storm Lowell: Sep 7-11
17 Hurricane Norbert: October 4-12
18 Satellite imagery composite October 9-11, 2008
19 Satellite imagery composite October 9-11, 2008 (110 mm) (125 mm) (86 mm) (121 mm) (34 mm) (121 mm) (182 mm) (110 mm) (27 mm) (16 mm) (6 mm)
20
21 05/ Oct 06/ Oct 07/ Oct 08/ Oct
22 05/ Oct 06/ Oct 07/ Oct 08/ Oct 09/ Oct 10/ Oct 11/ Oct 12/ Oct
23 Assisting local emergency managers: October 10-11, 2008 La Paz, Baja California Sur Tropical Cyclone Norbert Norbert s track, October 3-12 Military, power plant and health service representatives With the City Major.
24 Federal gov. Governor Emergency managers meeting (state) With director of state managers, Prof. José Gajón de la Toba Emergency managers meeting (county) October 23, 2008
25
26 NHC official forecasts Before 12 hours O 24 hours X 48 hours 72 hours Track 35 forecasts were issued First at landfall: Monday Oct/6/09PM, 5.5 days in Oct/11/1630UTC Large cities Hurricane Norbert: October 7-12
27 Henriette 2007 John 2006 Javier 2004 Marty 2003 Ignacio 2003 Juliette 2001 Track Forecasts: 72 hours X 48 hours O 24 hours 12 hours before landfall
28 Weather observations network Government (CNA + SMN) Major Airports (METAR) Upper-air sounding (La Paz) Radar (Cabo San Lucas) CICESE (in my dreams )
29 Digital rain gauge next to a government (CNA) weather station September 19 Record rainfall and temperature at 10-min intervals (HOBO data logger) Rain-gauge accumulations ~10-20% above observer s report San Bartolo, 385 m, annual mean 342 mm July/8 T.S. Julio (99 mm, CNA=80) Oct/25 Total accumulation= 265 mm July 7
30 CNA CIBNOR CICESE Airport
31 CONACYT-funded project Installation of surface weather stations in southern Baja California. Temperature, humidity, pressure, radiation and wind reports transmitted via Internet. Saturday, October 11 (Norbert s landfall) Temp max 28.7 C, min 24.0 C. Total rainfall 9.9 mm Wind speed maximum 53 km/h, 1650UTC, SSE Pressure minimum mb, 1930UTC.
32 Saturday, October 25, 2008 Installed weather station in Cabo San Lucas Located on a roof at 36 m above sea level Close to a weather radar and surface station Data to be shared by CICESE and hotel Pacific Ocean Pueblo Bonito Pacifica Holistic Retreat & Spa Radar, 500 m
33 Tropical Meteorology Course Universidad de Buenos Aires July 15 August 15, 2007 Instructor: Graciela B. Raga Participants: UNAM (Zavala, Romero, Pozo) CICESE (Farfán)
34 Tropical Meteorology Workshop La Paz, Baja California Sur March 10-14, 2008
35 Training workshop Security managers of hotels and resorts from Los Cabos May 14, 2008.
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