Tropical cyclones and seasonal means in high-resolution CAM 5 runs.

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1 Tropical cyclones and seasonal means in high-resolution CAM 5 runs. Julio Bacmeister ( NESL ) NCAR Earth System Laboratory Collaborators/contributors: Peter Lauritzen, Jerry Olson, John Truesdale +CAM-5 development team Workshop on High-Resolution Global Modeling June 15, 2010

2 CAM-5 Zhang-Macfarlane w/ Neale-Richter modifications UW shallow convection+pbl RRTM 2-moment Morrison-Gettelman microphysics ( prognostic aerosols (Ghan, Liu dycore...fv lat-lon

3 High resolution runs 0.23x0.31 lat-lon Five day forecasts: Initialized using MERRA reanalysis u,v,t,q on August Z ( CAM-5(a -control: out-of-the-box ( remains -No ZM/NR deep con. (UW -RAS replaces ZM/NR 1997 and 2005 storm seasons: - out-of-the-box CAM-5(a) 1997 and CAM-5(b) 2005 with and without ZM/NR -Comparison runs at 2.0x2.5 ZM/NR = Zhang-McFarlane with Neale-Richter modifications

4 ZM/NR = Zhang-McFarlane with Neale-Richter modifications

5 High resolution runs 0.23x0.31 lat-lon Five day forecasts: Initialized using MERRA reanalysis u,v,t,q on August Z ( CAM-5(a -control: out-of-the-box ( remains -No ZM/NR deep con. (UW -RAS replaces ZM/NR ZM/NR = Zhang-McFarlane with Neale-Richter modifications

6 control No deep convection TRMM 3B42 MERRA

7 control No deep convection TRMM 3B42 MERRA

8 control No deep convection TRMM 3B42 MERRA

9 Minimum Surface Pressure CAM Track 5 control No Deep Conv Day of Aug 2005 NHC

10 Precipitation types in control Track 5 forecast Total Deep+Shallow convection >120 mm/d Deep convection only Large-Scale only

11 Katrina forecasts: Surprisingly good intensity forecast both with and without ZM/NR deep convection. Storm cores dominated by grid-scale precipitation even with deep scheme on. -How does ZM/NR know to step aside?

12 1997 and 2005 seasons: Initialized using false-date reanalysis u,v,t,q over June 1 SSTs. Run until Oct : Strong El Nino, weak activity in Atlantic strong in W. Pacific ( CAM-5(a 2005: Extremely active Atlantic, somewhat below normal in W. Pacific ( CAM-5(a CAM-5(b), CAM-5(b)/no deep conv. param.

13

14

15 East- west sec6on through storm close to peak on 8/8, P=922 hpa, winds~60 m/s Colors: V mag Lines: T Colors: U Inflow and ou*low Precipita6on mm/d Convec6ve ( Sh+Deep ) Large scale

16 Storm Days: P is -10 hpa below monthly mean.and. Maximum 900 hpa ( Cat3 ) wind within ~125 km is >30 m/s ( Cat1 ) or >50 m/s Cat 1 Cat 1 Cat 3 Cat 3

17 1997 and 2005 seasons: Encouraging; W Pacific storms more intense, two over 70 m/s; variability in number of storms has correct sign in both basins, BUT W. Pacific much too sensitive IBTrACS 1997:2005 ratio * 19:15 CAM-5(a) 24:8!!!! Atlantic maybe not sensitive enough IBTrACS 1997:2005 ratio 3:15 CAM-5(a) 5:12 * Vmax>33 m/s Caveat: One run per season. Zhao et al (2009) find spread in numbers, e.g., N. Atl (n~10-17) over 4 different ensemble members. CAM-5(b) has more W Pacific TC in 2005

18 Seasonal mean (JAS) hpa wind shear difference between 2005 and 1997 Positive=> stronger shear in 2005 CAM MERRA m./s Wind shear does not seem to be the key

19 Other Seasonal Means Including comparisons with 2.0x2.5

20 Seasonal Mean precipitation JJA x x2.5 GPCP GPCP

21 Seasonal Mean precipitation JJA x x2.5 GPCP GPCP A real seasonal mean difference/improvement due to increased resolution!!!

22 non-storm precipitation JJA 1997 Here storm means daily mean PS 3 hpa lower than monthly mean and inst. winds at (day0,day+1) 12Z > ( km 20 m/s (within N means Tot. storm prec=0.81 LS =0.43 Storm precipitation JJA 1997

23 Total precipitation grid-scale precipitation

24 Two degree simulation Total precipitation grid-scale precipitation

25 CAM-5(a) and CAM-5(b) JAS 2005 precipitation raw 0.23x x0.31 coarsened to 2x2.5 2x2.5 ( CAM-5(a ( CAM-5(b GPCP

26 CAM-5(a) and CAM-5(b) JAS 2005 precipitation raw 0.23x x0.31 coarsened to 2x2.5 2x2.5 ( CAM-5(a ( CAM-5(b GPCP N Pacific warm pool ( CAM-5(b wetter in Physics differences? Ensemble variability?

27 CAM-5(b) and CAM-5(b) w/o deep convection param JAS 2005 raw 0.23x x0.31 coarsened to 2x2.5 2x2.5 ( CAM-5(b CAM-5(b) no deep convection param GPCP

28 CAM-5(b) and CAM-5(b) w/o deep convection param JAS 2005 raw 0.23x x0.31 coarsened to 2x2.5 2x2.5 ( CAM-5(b CAM-5(b) no deep convection param GPCP Spurious S Pacific ITCZ gets worse at high resolution and worse still without deep conv. param.

29 Propagating MCC s?

30 Hourly precip CAM-5(b) without deep convection parameterization Days since Aug NCAR Longitude NSF HQ

31 Hourly precip CAM-5(b) without deep convection parameterization Days since Aug NCAR Longitude NSF HQ

32 Hourly precip CAM-5(b) without deep convection parameterization Days since Aug Hurricanes ( recurving ) NCAR Longitude NSF HQ

33 Hourly precip CAM-5(b) default Days since Aug NCAR Longitude NSF HQ

34 Some statistics

35 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 -

36 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Log-normal curves, power laws -1/2 to -1 Frequency -5/2 to -3 Closer to power law with scale break? Precipitation (mm d ( 1 -

37 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control ( ZM ) Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 -

38 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control (ZM) RAS Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 -

39 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control (ZM) RAS No-DeepCon Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 - Note: No-deepCon still has UW shallow convection

40 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control (ZM) RAS No-DeepCon MERRA (0.66x0.5) Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 - Note: No-deepCon still has UW shallow convection

41 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control (ZM) RAS No-DeepCon MERRA ( 0.66x0.5 ) Control (ZM) deep convective precip only Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 - Note: No-deepCon still has UW shallow convection

42 TRMM 3B42 intenstity PDF, 5-days, 30S-30N vs Control (ZM) RAS No-DeepCon MERRA ( 0.66x0.5 ) Control (ZM) deep convective precip only Frequency Precipitation (mm d ( 1 - Note: No-deepCon still has UW shallow convection

43 No deep convection Precipitation on Z RAS convection TRMM 3B42 Control CAM using ZM

44 Time evolution of precipitation intensity PDF hour hour day forecast run 5-day segment of seasonal run (days ~85-90, i.e., ( spun-up well Precipitation mm/d

45 Time evolution of precipitation intensity PDF hour hour Rapid spinup of precip stats day forecast run 5-day segment of seasonal run (days ~85-90, i.e., ( spun-up well Precipitation mm/d

46 Log-frequency ( 6-hrly ) Instantaneous low-level horizontal divergence Aug S to 12N ( CAM-5(b without param deep conv. log 10 f -1e ( 1/s ) lowest level Divergence +1e-3

47 Joint PDFs of precipitation rate and wind speed at 900 hpa (instantaneous,once-daily for June 1 to Oct ) 2x x0.31 coarse-grained to 2.0x2.5 V (m s -1 ) V (m s -1 ) Prec. (mm d -1 ) Prec. (mm d -1 )

48 Summary Some encouraging aspects in tropical cyclone simulations. ZMNR deep scheme allows TCs to deepen. (interferes with midwest (? MCCs High resolution improves JJA 1997 seasonal precipitation possibly due to resolved mesoscale dynamics. Precip intensity statistics in forecast and climate runs are similar ( hrs (and spin up within 24 Similar problems in fully parameterized runs. -weak extremes, excessive moderate rain Low level divergence has large extremes in run without deep conv. Param. Climate i.e. mean T q profiles (not shown) similar in 0.25 runs with and without deep conv. Param.. : Convection-free AMIPs?

49 THANK YOU The NESL Mission is: To advance understanding of weather, climate, atmospheric composition and processes; To provide facility support to the wider community; and, To apply the results to benefit society. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation

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