Dr. Mark Seeley Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota Clean Water and Climate Adaptation Summit University of Minnesota Landscape

Transcription

1 Climate Change in Minnesota: Current Trends and Projections Dr. Mark Seeley Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate University of Minnesota Clean Water and Climate Adaptation Summit University of Minnesota Landscape Arboretum Chaska, MN September 17, 2010

2 citizens do not use the news media as scientists assume.faced with a.torrent of daily news, citizens use their value predispositions.as perceptual screens (Nisbet and Mooney) Science, 316. pg 56, Apr 6, 2007) To engage the public on climate change we must give attention to the 5 Cs: common experience, core values, community, citizenship, and civility (Minnesota sculture)

3 Data Source: NOAA-NCDC_HCN

4 Non-climatic climatic influences Local climate change Equipment bias Site bias Measurement contamination Observational errors Transcription error (data entry) Time-of-observation bias Global climate change

5 RECENT SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE TRENDS IN MINNESOTA AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TEMPERATURE:: WARM WINTERS AND HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DEWPOINTS: GREATER FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL-LIKE ATMOSPHERIC WATER VAPOR MOISTURE: AMPLIFIED PRECIPITATION SIGNAL, THUNDERSTORM CONTRIBUTION

6 Temperature trends based on HCN data

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9 Statewide Annual Temperature History

10 Winter (D,J,F) Spring (M,A,M) Seasonal Temperature Trends in MN Summer (J,J,A) Fall ll(s,o,n)

11 Figure 3.10 Seasonality in temperature change IPCC-2007

12 IPCC-2007 Warming is weighted towards minimum temperature change

13 Trends in average winter minimum temperatures International Falls, MN Period of Record Ave Min Temp in Deg. F Jan Jan -8.4 Jan -8.3 Feb -4.8 Feb Feb -0.6 Mar 8.9 Mar 12.3 Mar 12.6

14 Possible Implications of Warm Winters and Higher Minimum i Temperatures Change in depth and duration of soil and lake freezing More rapid breakdown of crop residues Later fall nitrogen applications Longer outdoor construction season, fewer adverse weather days Change in over winter survival rates of insect pests and plant diseases, and soil microbes Reduced d energy use for heating Increased number of freeze/thaw cycles Change in animal migration, hibernation, and foraging Longer exposure times to mold and allergens

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16 Temperature and Ice Trends on Lake Superior From research by J. Austin and S Colman, UMD- Large Lakes Observatory

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18 Summer Climate

19 Trend in number of days with max temp of 90 F or higher is negative for Twin Cities MSP Days Max Temp => da ays year

20 Trend in dewpoints of 70 F or higher in the Twin Cities MSP Dewpoint Days => days year days where 18hr => 70 days where max => 70 linear reg linear reg Annual Hours of Dew Point Temperature => 70 degrees F Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN hours year

21 Trends in average summer minimum temperatures St Peter, MN Period of Record Ave Min Temp in Deg. F Jun 56.7 Jun 56.6 Jun 56.7 Jun 56.9 Jul 61.1 Jul 61.2 Jul 61.3 Jul 61.9 Aug 58.5 Aug 58.9 Aug 59.0 Aug 59.6

22 Minnesota Statewide May Through September Mean Temperature Ranking of the past 17 Growing Seasons ( ) Year Percentile Rank for (mean temp) (62.8 F) 1995 * 79 (63.3 F) 1996 * 40 (61.9 F) (62.1 F) (64.8 F) 1999 * 78 (63.3 F) (62.3 F) 2001 * 93 (63.8 F) 2002 * 80 (63.3 F) 2003 * 73 (63.1 F) (60.3 F) 2005 * 85 (63.6 F) 2006 * 96 (63.9 F) 2007 * 104 (64.66 F) (61.7 F) (61.3 F) 2010 * 82 (63.4 F) * Denotes summer dewpoint of 80 F or higher

23 Frequencies of July tropical dew points (70 F or higher) and associated Heat Index values for the Twin Cities since Year Hours with DP of Range of Heat 70 F or greater Index Values (F) (125*) (125*)

24 Historical Minnesota Heat Waves: Red ddenotes dewpoint tdriven 1883, 1894, 1901, 1910, 1917, 1921, 1931, 1933, 1934, 1936, 1937, 1947, 1948, 1949, 1955, 1957, 1959, 1964, 1976, 1977, 1983, 1988, 1995,1999,, 2001, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010

25 Possible Implications of Increased Frequency in Tropical Dew Points? Dynamics of pathogen, insect, and microorganism populations Efficacy and persistence of herbicides (volatility) Elevated water temperatures, algae blooms Increased workload in heat related health care (exposure differentials, MS, COPD, Obesity) Increased stress on livestock (change in ration, water, reduced milk production and reproduction problems) Increased demand for air conditioning

26 First ever F-5 tornado (winds > 261 mph) in Canada Elie, Manitoba, June 22, 2007

27 Precipitation Observers all locations including SWCD Design spacing for SWCD gages iis every other township (12 miles)) or better observers June 2004

28 Precipitation it ti ranking of the most recent 30 years across Minnesota relative to the period

29 MN Annual Precipitation with 5-yr Tendencies

30 Precipitation trends based on HCN data

31 Winter-D,J,F, Spring-M,A,M Seasonality in MN Precipitation Trends Fall-S,O,N Summer-J,J,A

32 Change in Annual Precipitation Normals at Waseca, MN PERIOD AMOUNT (IN.) percent increase since period

33 water vapor and clouds are far and away the most important greenhouse substances in the atmosphere [quantity, type, and distribution are important] K. Emanuel Quantity is but one character of precipitation

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35 Historical recurrence interval of 2 inch rains in MN is once per year. Observed 2 inch rainfalls for the period and maximum single day value for MN communities: Location No. 2 in. rains Maximum Value (date) Zumbrota (6/27/98) Albert Lea (6/15/78) Preston (7/21/51) Red Wing (7/1/78) Lake City (5/28/70) Waseca (8/31/62) Winnebago (9/25/2005) Bricelyn (9/14/2004) Amboy (8/19/2007) Hokah (8/19/2007)

36 Historic Droughts (Associated fires) 1829, 1852, , , 1896, 1900, 1910, 1918, , , , 1948, , 1956, 1961, 1976, 1980, 1984, , 1988, 1997,

37 Climate Singularity = 24 counties included in USDA drought disaster declaration of August 7, 2007 Note: adjacent 32 counties were also eligible for assistance = Counties included in federal flood disaster declaration of August 20, 2007 and eligible for FEMA assistance

38 Attributes of this storm: Observers in 28 counties reported 4 or more Observers in 3 counties (Winona, Fillmore, Houston) reported 14 or more Dewpoints degrees F Diffuse, weak jet stream

39 Possible Implications of Changes in Precipitation it ti Quantity and Character Altered irrigation, drainage, runoff, sediment, and shoreline management Change in storm sewer runoff design Modified fisheries management Mitigation of soil erosion Mitigation of flooding potential Better management of blowing snow and spring snowmelt runoff

40 IPCC model projections based on scenarios

41 Glossary - acronyms BC Bias Correction CA Constructed Analogues CDF Cumulative Distribution Function CF Climate and Forecast (metadata conventions) CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project ESG Earth System Grid GCM General Circulation Model, global climate model IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NARCCAP North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Project NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center netcdf network Common Data Form (ALL GCM data in this format) PCDMI Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison SD/SDS Statistical Downscaling SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC)» A/B: business-as usual (growth)/ green, 1/2: one world / to each his own WCRP World Climate Research Program