National Weather Service Presentation for the North Carolina Emergency Management Association 2016 Fall Conference

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1 National Weather Service Presentation for the North Carolina Emergency Management Association 2016 Fall Conference Nicholas Petro Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Raleigh

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3 CPC December-February Outlook

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5 ENSO s Impact on Wilmington s Temp S S S S S S S S Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

6 ENSO s Impact on Wilmington s Precip Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

7 ENSO s Impact on Wilmington s Snow Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

8 ENSO s Impact on Raleigh s Temp Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

9 ENSO s Impact on Raleigh s Precip Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

10 ENSO s Impact on Raleigh s Snow Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

11 ENSO s Impact on Asheville s Temp Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

12 ENSO s Impact on Asheville s Precip Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

13 ENSO s Impact on Asheville s Snow Blue bars are La Nina Years Red bars are El Nino Years Black bars are years where there was neither El Nino or La Nina

14 Bottom Line La Nina is expected this winter. Odds slightly favor above normal temps and below normal precip this winter. While this seems great (if you don t like winter), don t forget that the 2001 winter storm occurred during a La Nina year. So despite the favorable odds, we should never let our guard down!

15 New for the Winter of 2016/2017: How Much Snow is Going to Fall? Giving the Range of Possibilities with Snowfall Forecasts National Weather Service Raleigh, NC

16 Background Snowfall = BIG Impacts o School / government / business closures o Airport shutdowns/delays o Traffic accidents with injuries/fatalities o Money plowing/treating roads o Lost resources in traffic congestion o Power outages/damage in strong storms National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

17 Background Weather Forecasts are Inherently Uncertain o Chaotic Nature of our Atmosphere Conditions Can Change Rapidly o Deficiencies In Observations Not Everything is Observed Errors o Uncertainties in Computer Simulations of Atmosphere Models National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

18 Background Demand for Snowfall Forecasts has Escalated o Society has Become Increasingly Mobile o High Sensitivity to Winter Hazards Highways Often Run Above Capacity in Fair Weather Packed Schedules Leave Little Time For Delays National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

19 Background Historically: A Single Forecast that changes as storm nears o Deterministic o For Example: o Town X will get 3 o Town Y will get 5 National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

20 Communicating the Range of Snowfall Possibilities Provides the Goal Posts of Snowfall Possibilities Allows for Better Decisions Leads to Less Impact on the Economy and Society National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

21 Three Products - Winter ) Minimum / Most Likely / Maximum Snowfall Expect at least this much Goal Posts of Possibilities NWS Forecast Is the Most Likely Forecast 2) Chance that Snow Will Be Greater Than 0.1, 1, 2, 4, 8, 12 and 18 3) Locality Tables Info for Several Locations in Each County Potential for this much National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

22 Range of Possibilities National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

23 National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

24 Mouse-over/Touch for large image National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

25 Defaults to regional list Can Select County/City for Local Towns Locality Tables What about MY town? Probability that snowfall will exceed an amount National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

26 Watch/Warning/Advisory Program Outlooks (Get Ready) Potential for significant events up to 7 days in advance Forecaster confidence at least 30% Watches (Get Set) Issued up to 72 hours in advance Forecaster confidence at least 50% Warnings/Advisories (Go) Issued up to 36 hours in advance Forecaster confidence at least 80% National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

27 As Storm Nears Idealized Situation Range of Possibilities Shrinks Confidence Increases NWS Forecast stays between Max/Min Max Max Max NWS Forecast; Most Likely Actual Snowfall Min Min 3 Days 2 Days 1.5 Days 24 Hrs 12 Hrs Snow +6 Hrs +9 Hrs Snow Starts Ends Storm Timeline National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

28 How Does This Help Our Core Customers? By giving Range of Possibilities People can weigh the cost of taking action vs. potential loss if no action is taken. Some need to plan for worst case Some can just plan for most likely But, ideally no surprises for anyone Less impact from winter storms through better planning and decision making. National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

29 Three New Products (In addition to what we routinely produce) Minimum - Most Likely - Maximum Expect at least this much Summary Chance of Exceeding X Inches Locality Table New Winter Weather Webpage Potential for this much Communicating Uncertainty Enables Better Decisions Minimize Winter s Impact on the Region National Weather Service [WFO NAME]

30 Range of Possibilities Snow Forecasting This will give everyone: The full set of forecast information, rather than just the current expectation, to enable better decisions by all. Our confidence in predicting the oncoming snow s accumulation. What is it? An improved way to forecast snow 3 New Tools Range of possibilities, as well as the current expectation Combination of forecaster skill and 70+ U.S. & international weather models. 1) Min/Most Likely/Max These show not only our current expectation (most-likely), but also the range of possibilities from the storm (max & min scenarios). 2) Localized Listing This shows the range of possibilities for individual towns and cities near you. Range of possibilities for snow accumulation point-by-point across the region 3) Chance of Exceeding These show the percentage chance of exceeding a specific snowfall amount. Options are: 0.1, 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18. Webpage: For additional information explaining each of these and how to use them, select the What s This? link by each on the webpage.

31 New Spot Forecast Page

32 Questions? Contact information: Nick Petro, WCM Raleigh

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