Composite hurricanes affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola & Cuba

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1 Composite hurricanes affecting Puerto Rico, Hispaniola & Cuba Mark R. Jury Physics Department University of Puerto Rico Mayagüez Campus

2 Atlantic hurricane climatology probability 10% 20% 30% track Timing and spatial distribution of hurricanes. A minimum occurs west of Hispaniola. Season peak - September 10 th th.

3 TS H1 Hurricane tracks become more focused and westward as intensity increases H4 H5 Here - cases are chosen when intense hurricanes affect Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba - on a westward track

4 Aims: The composite features of hurricanes causing widespread impacts on Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba in the past 40 years are studied. Individual cases have peculiar symptoms, averaging these together, common features are revealed. to analyze large-scale weather patterns and interaction between the hurricane and its surrounding circulation to determine which factors relate to intensity and track, comparing local and remote (tropical and mid-latitude) signals. Sequential satellite image Hurricane Georges

5 Data and Methods: obtain hurricane impact lists from the NWS of Puerto Rico and Dominican Rep s + obtain daily NCEP atmospheric variables and SST at low 2.5 resolution find 8 overlapping cases > H 3 intensity, winds > 50 m s -1 : 27 Sept 1963 Edith 29 Sept 1966 Inez 10 Sept 1967 Beulah 30 Aug 1979 David 22 Sept 1987 Emily 10 Sept 1988 Gilbert 10 Sept 1996 Hortense 22 Sept 1998 Georges Check for coherence; then calculate composite maps for days closest to PR / DR; analyze evolution and forcing

6 The timing of hurricanes Probability max : 10 & 22 Sept, ~ 10 day intervals, phase-locked? SST anomaly over the western Atlantic W C W C W C W C W W Caribbean upper wind ~ 8 year cycle westerly easterly cases

7 Variations in Pmin intensity and position Composite surface wind anomaly 8 case average day 0 >14 >10 >14 m s -1 Subsequent N-S N S vertical section analysis

8 Vertical N-S N S section wind structure: link to upper easterlies 0 km Pressure (height) 15 km 14 W E Zonal wind on 70 W W day 0 PR E N N N LATITUDE Observed average V T = 55 m s -1! Model interpolated winds are 25% of actual. Vertical motion PR 8 case composite

9 Vertical N-S N S section thermodynamic structure: 0 km Pressure (height) 15 km Geopotential on 70 W W day 0 L -30 PR H +50 moist 10 N N N LATITUDE T upper q q lower -3 +2?? PR 8 case composite

10 Rain rate structure: day 0 mm/day case composite Observed average R R ~ 100 mm/day! Model interpolated rainfall is ~ 20% of actual.

11 Tropopause temperature anomaly -5 day - 2 day case composite The composite hurricane intensifies to day +2; track re-curves slowly: San Juan, Santo Domingo, Havana, and Key West are directly in the path!

12 Composite streamfunction anomaly cyclonic cyclonic H day 0 8 case composite The cyclonic low circulation over the eastern mainland is of similar intensity to the hurricane near PR!

13 Composite humidity and SST anomaly -5 moist warm warm 8 case composite 8 case composite The hurricane is attracted toward a moist region over the SE mainland, and comes from a region of higher SST as expected.

14 Remote mid-latitude effects: Composite upper velocity potential and upper wind anomaly >15 8 case composite day -2 The hurricane is pushed westward by the divergent circulation across the Atlantic An intense polar low and sub-tropical jet streak acts as an attractor

15 Pulses of tropical wind are known to affect hurricanes in the western Atlantic low level winds hurricane tracks Madden-Julian Oscillation a day alternation

16 Remote tropical effects Zonal wind departure Enhancement Suppression Years departure Composite hurricane score for tropical wind / convection MJO forcing J F M A M J J A S O N D 5 case avg. months

17 Summary: A large-scale pattern for the composite hurricanes is evident. Signal intensity is weakened by model averaging of low resolution n data based on sparse observations. NCEP reanalysis hurricane Pmin,, wind and rain anomalies are ~ 1/3 of observed mean values. The lack of diabatic heating in the hpa layer is the problem. Major cities are impacted throughout the Caribbean: ~ $ 10 9 damage and ~ 10 3 lives per hurricane! Composite hurricane patterns indicate: Enhancement by warmer SSTs and favorable MJO, enabling development 7 7 further south than usual. Attraction by moist conditions and a jet streak over the eastern mainland induced by polar low. Tracks guided westward by upper divergent circulation, and link with upper tropical easterlies. These preliminary findings deserve further attention by researchers at UPRM

18 Caribbean climate variability and early summer rains Mark R. Jury Physics Department University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez Campus With inputs from B Malmgren and A Winter

19 Methods: Using monthly data: Obtain station rainfall for Caribbean since 1950 Calculate geographical clusters : (factor analysis) Reconstruct the rainfall time series per cluster Analyze the annual cycle and residuals Compare year-to to-year fluctuations with ENSO and NAO Analyze continuous and seasonal relationships Using daily data: Analyze convective fluctuations occurring over DR-PR since 1980 Perform a wavelet analysis on continuous data to determine important frequencies Analyze the recent March-April 2006 wet spell using composite NCEP data - thermodynamic and kinematic forcing - wave forcing at different latitudes

20 Analysis of Caribbean rainfall data Station Lat. Long. Station Name Island % Missing No. ( N) ( W) Observations Casablanca Cuba Camaguey Cuba Paso Real de San Diego Cuba Sancti Spiritus Cuba Guantanamo Bay Cuba Kingston Jamaica Clarks Town (Trelawny) Jamaica Santo Domingo DR Villa Vazquez DR Puerto Plata DR Santiago DR Cabrera DR Seybo DR Nassau IA Bahamas West End Bahamas Green Turtle Cay Bahamas Alice Town Bahamas Dunmore Town Bahamas The Bight Bahamas Cockburn Town Bahamas Georgetown Bahamas Clarence Town Bahamas Duncan Town Bahamas Abraham Bay Bahamas Matthew Town Bahamas Alex Hamilton U.S.V.I Juliana Aero St. Martin Grantley/Seawell AP Barbados Cidra PR Coloso PR Guayama PR Isabela PR Manati PR Mayagüez PR San Juan PR 1.1

21 Cluster analysis of rainfall annual cycles below 1 EARLY 2 DRY 3 WET R a i n m m mm 200 R a i n m m J F M A M J J A S O N D mm 200 R a i n m m J F M A M J J A S O N D mm 200 R a i n m m J F M A M J J A S O N D mm LATE J F M A M J J A S O N D 4

22 Rainfall variability in time and space Reconstructed cluster rainfall time series satellite rainfall climatology DRY WET DRY DRY DRY WET WET weak wind climatology strong

23 8 year cycle in rainfall via regional SST and upper wind SST anomaly Caribbean upper wind

24 Cluster rainfall in the NW and SE relate to ENSO and NAO respectively Cluster 1 Residual score Residual score Negative Positive

25 ENSO influence positive and leading NAO influence variable and lagging Correlation % ENSO / NAO influence before (months) after Winter ENSO influence Winter NAO influence 60 0 Correlation % Cluster May Oct Correlation % Cluster May Oct

26 What are the mechanisms underlying the relationships? Humid air pressure west cyclonic winds vorticity more rain 20 S N ENSO correlation with precip. water ENSO correlation with zonal winds southerlies pressure sinking motion High press. less rain 20 S N Composite map of upper NAO correlation with geopotential height meridional winds in wet spell

27 Pa/d W/m2 m/s mm Dynamical forcing differs from early to late summer CLIMATOLOGY 18-19N, 66-67W SST precip. water -vertical motion obs. rainfall upper wind -evap. flux J F M A M J J A S O N D Westerly upper wind No upper wind cm/m C

28 Higher frequency oscillations: What drives them? CYCLES day day 4 month 12 month QBO

29 Dynamics of the recent wet spell Precip. water time series over western PR Composite maps for pulsed wet spell ~7 day cycle Jet Streak March 6 April 13 April DRY WET TROUGH RIDGE Composite map precip. water Composite map upper wind & height

30 Low level winds in the wet spell Westerly flow Florida NE flow TROUGH Caribbean SE flow ANDES

31 Influence of equatorial Kelvin Wave Wavelength = km C = 1500 km / day Period = 7 days 31 March Time 8 April Wet phase Filtered OLR anomalies Wet phase longitude of Puerto Rico

32 What triggered the wet spell? Composite satellite OLR C = 1400 km / day C = -550 km / day 15 March Time 15 April 15 March Time 15 April AMAZON OUTFLOW Hovmoller analyses analysis from 95W of upper to 50 W V of wind 250 hpa on 20 V component N and precip. on 20 N water (left), and on Precip Water on equator (right). Pulses (diagonal lines) of moisture flow westward across the Amazon, then and reach interacting the Andes with and deflect upper northward flow over to the interact Caribbean. with pulses Circles of upper show wet spells over PR. level flow over the Caribbean. Circles show rainfall events over PR. equator (right). Diagonal lines show pulses of moisture moving up the

33 Conceptual model of early summer wet spells Fast eastward Rossby waves draw moisture Wet spell over Puerto Rico Deep anticyclonic circulation anomaly Fast equatorial Kelvin waves Flow steered by Andes Slow westward pulses of equatorial moisture Evapo-transpiration from Amazon

34 Summary: Puerto Rican rainfall clusters with Dominican (west) and Antilles (east) regions. There is an 8 year cycle and recent drying trend. NW Caribbean rainfall is enhanced by El Nino in early summer, SE Caribbean rainfall is influenced by NAO. High frequency oscillations are found that relate to MJO and Kelvin waves. Early summer rainfall wet spells are driven by a combination of Amazon outflow and an upper jet stream wave. The conveyor belt is pulsed by Pacific Kelvin waves. Further research is needed to create operational benefits.

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