Evolution of Sea Temperature Anomalies in Nino 3.4 region into Indonesia Rainfall Anomalies during El Nino Event 2015/2016

Transcription

1 Evolution of Sea Temperature Anomalies in Nino 3.4 region into Indonesia Rainfall Anomalies during El Nino Event 2015/2016 Adi Ripaldi, Dodi Apandi, Robi Muharsyah, Supari ( Center For Climate Change Information - BMKG) Edvin Aldrian (Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) Harsono Soepardjo (University Of Indonesia) JCOMM-5, JOINT TECHNICAL COMMISSION FOR OCEANOGRAPHY AND MARINE METEOROLOGY 5TH SESSION AND TECHNICAL CONFERENCE (TECO) GENEVA - October 23rd to the 24th,

2 BACK GROUND 2015 Godzilla El Niño Bye-bye, El Niño. (earth.nullschool.net) Bill Patzert (NASA Climatologist) NOAA s Climate Prediction Center El Niño can be classified as very strong if surface waters are running at least 2 C warmer than average for at least three months. This has only happened three times on record: 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/

3 EL NINO 2015 IMPACT FOR INDONESIA 3

4 What the Interesting? Research Question A.How the evolution of SSTa changing and zonal wind over nino 3.4 and SST a maritime continent during El Nino? B. How the EL nino impact for Indonesia rainfall variability in? The Output A. Get the assessment the comparison of SSTa changing, zonal wind over nino 3.4 and SSTa maritime continent during El Nino? B How the El Nino impact for Indonesia rainfall variability? The Outcome Get more information to anticipate the impact of El Nino or La Nina for Indonesia. 4

5 RESEARCH AREA METHOD Data a. Sea Surface Temperature, Sub Surface Temperature and Reanalysis wind 850 mb, over njno 3.4 region and Sea Surface Temperature (NCEP NOAA) Rainfall data observations (BMKG) Rain Gauge Station Three Assessment Regional divided 5

6 Data Analysis a. Calculate SST, Sub ST and Zonal Wind at Nino 3.4 region, SSTa Indonesia Region, Rainfall anomalies in Indonesia. b. Calculate the large area of subsurface anomalies based on grid which is < -1 ºC (cool) and > 1 º C (Warmer) 1 º = 111 km 1. Assess patern and trend 2. Compare anomalies values 3. Compare the period of El Nino 1997 : Correlation analysis between SSTa nino 3.4 and Indonesia rainfall anomalies. 6

7 DATA ANALYSIS : SUB SURFACE EL NINO YEAR (1997) 7

8 SUB SURFACE EL NINO YEAR (1997) 8

9 SUB SURFACE LA NINA YEAR (1998) 9

10 SUB SURFACE EL NINO YEAR (2015) 10

11 SUB SURFACE EL NINO YEAR (2015) 11

12 SUB SURFACE (2016) 12

13 SUB SURFACE LA NINA YEAR (2016) 13

14 Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies Analysis and Result Month Period of Warm : Cool: Neutral SST warm neutral cool Year El Nino Lanina Tahun Onset awal peak Puncak retreat Akhir Onset awal peak Puncak retreat Akhir Mei 82 (0,6) Des 82 (2,21) Jun 83(0,75) Okt 16 (-0,75) Nop 83 (-0,89) Des 83 (-0,76) Jan 87 (1,14) Sep 87 (1,66) Jan 88 (0,91) Mei 88 (-0,86) Nop 88 (-1,78) Des 88 (-1,72) Mei 97 (0,56) Nop 97 (2,32) Mei 98 (0,67) Jul 98 (-0,74) Des 98 (-1,52) Des 98 (-1,52) Jan 1999 (-1,58) Jan 1999 (-1,58) Des 20 (-0,84) Apr 15 (0,73) Jan 16 (2,33) Mei 16 (0,6) Ags 16 (0,63) Nop 16 (-0,93) Des 16 (-0,72) 14

15 Comparison Large Area of Sub SST at Indonesia Region Warmer Sub SST (red) Coller Sub SST (Blue) Perbandingan Luasan suhu bawah laut wilayah laut pasifik 120 E E Pada kondisi El Nino dan La Nina. 15

16 SST anomalies Indonesia Region period of warm, Cool, Neutral SST Domain 1 Domain 1 warm normal neutral dingin cool Domain 2 Domain 2 Domain 3 warm neutral cool Domain 3 warm neutral cool 16

17 Zonal Wind Anomalies Nino 3.4 Region BMKG Zonal Wind Climatology ( ) Zonal Wind During El Nino Grafik anomalies Long period Wind Zonal Anomalies (month) Wind Wind Wind Wind wind westerly easterly 17

18 Comparison : SST nino 3.4 : Sub SST : Zonal Wind (Maximum and Minimum Anomalies) zonal wind 18

19 Rainfall Distribution Anomalies in Indonesia Annual Rainfall Distribution Anomalies 2015 Annual Rainfall Distribution Anomalies

20 RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION ANOMALIES IN INDONESIA 20

21 SSTa nino 3.4, SSTa of Indonesia, Zonal Wind and Rainfall Anomalies, Grafik Anomali Curah Hujan, SST Nino 3.4, SST Indonesia dan Angin Zonal BMKG

22 Grafik The Korelasi Correlation Curah Hujan dengan of SSTa Nino nino 3.4 dan 3.4, SST Indonesia SSTa of Indonesia and Rainfall Anomalies, % of Correaltion between SSTa Niino 3.4 with Indonesia Rainfall No Hasil Korelasi Periode Tahun Korelasi Positif 20% 24% 8% 40% 6% 2 Korelasi Negatif 80% 76% 93% 60% 94% 3 Significant 28% 23% 54% 8% 44% 4 Tidak Significant 73% 78% 46% 93% 56% % of Correaltion between SST a Indonesia with Indonesia Rainfall No Hasil Korelasi Periode Tahun Korelasi Positif 69% 73% 96% 76% 89% 2 Korelasi Negatif 31% 27% 4% 24% 11% 3 Significant 20% 18% 68% 9% 30% 4 Tidak Significant 80% 83% 33% 91% 70% 22

23 Conclusion 1. EL nino 2015/2016 have the highest anomaly 2,33 C with the 14 month period, its means that 2015/2016 is the strongest El Nino event. 2. We found the shifting of peak SSTa nino 3.4 during El Nino 2015/2016 wtih the starting early than 1982/21983 and 1997/ The area Impact of El Nino 1997/1998 for Indonesia is larger than 2015/ The SST of Indonesia region during El Nino 2015/2016 show warmer than 1997/1998 indicating more supporting condition for developing convective over maritim continent, this conditions suggested reduced the impact El Nino 2015/2016. Suggestion : The impact of global warming reduced the impact of El nino at Maritime Continent will be interesting for the future study 23

24 Thank You Very Much 24

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