Developing a market to accommodate future offshore wind projects in the UK & Europe Bruce Valpy, 21 October 2010
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1 Developing a market to accommodate future offshore wind projects in the UK & Europe Bruce Valpy, 21 October
2 BVG Associates Market analysis Business development New technology direction Technical due diligence Prototype wind farm development 2
3 3
4 4
5 Agenda 1. Forecast to 2030 and are we going to hit targets 2. Government policy decisions to help build a supply chain 3. How other countries are approaching offshore wind 4. Ingredients for long-term stability beyond Round 3? 5
6 1. Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts Health warning: most wind energy forecasts exceeded BTM Consult most respected around Global installation: 5-year ahead forecasts 6
7 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts Actual was 200% of forecast 7
8 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts Early years kept exceeding forecasts Getting better at forecasting (or worse at delivering) A cause of supply chain bottlenecks 8
9 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts Recent years - keep exceeding forecasts Forecasting is not easy 9
10 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts The Crown Estate potential Aggregate of developer expectations and commitments 10
11 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts The Crown Estate potential Upper bound 11
12 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts DECC National Action Plan (2010) a scenario - lower bound much greater levels of deployment 12
13 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts National Grid Accelerated plan (2010) Constraint 13
14 Forecasts, forecasts & more forecasts Renewable UK Healthy industry (2010) Realistic scenario based on industry feedback 14
15 Our forecast Dialogue with many stakeholders - probabilistic, rationalised and contextualised Bottom-up and top-down 15
16 Our forecast Compare 2010 forecast with BWEA s Moving up a gear (2007)! 16
17 Our forecast UK by location 17
18 Our forecast EU-wide 18
19 Our forecast key risks Early 2009 Supply chain Economics Good budget Grid OFTO arguments 2010 Grid Finance Electricity Market Reform Government intent 19
20 Our forecast To
21 Our forecast To
22 2. Government intent 22
23 Government intent: previous Stable market Viable framework Additional ROCS? Grid framework Inward investment UK Renewables Service & UKTI Ports dialogue and competition R&D Support ETF 30m Carbon Trust Energy Technologies Institute Supply chain support UK Renewables Service? Cash 23
24 Government intent: previous Stable market Viable framework Additional ROCS? Grid framework Inward investment UK Renewables Service & UKTI Ports dialogue and competition R&D Support ETF Offshore Wind Demo Carbon Trust OWA Energy Technologies Institute Supply chain support UK Renewables Service? Cash 24
25 Government intent: previous Stable market Viable framework Additional ROCS? Grid framework Inward investment UK Renewables Service & UKTI Ports dialogue and competition R&D Support ETF Offshore Wind Demo Carbon Trust OWA Energy Technologies Institute Partners: ETF (short-term) Vestas, Siemens, MHI, Clipper, Converteam, JDR, BiFab, South Boats, MTL TAG, Artemis, NGenTec, Blade Dynamics OWA (medium-term) ETI (long term) Supply chain support UK Renewables Service? Cash 25
26 Government impact: previous Stable market Viable framework Additional ROCS? Grid framework Inward investment UK Renewables Service & UKTI Ports dialogue and competition R&D Support ETF Offshore Wind Demo Carbon Trust OWA Energy Technologies Institute Supply chain support UK Renewables Service? Cash 26
27 Government intent: current Stable market? Electricity market reform? Move away from ROCs? Inward investment? ORED & UKTI Ports competition R&D Support? ETF Carbon Trust Energy Technologies Institute Supply chain support? ORED? Cash 27
28 Cumulaive Installed Offshore (GW) Renewable Energy 3. EU picture 30% 20% 2020 RE Target % 0% UK Germany Netherlands France Denmark Belgium Other 2020 Forecast NAP % offshore wind 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0 0% Framework Consenting? Grid to Economics?? 28
29 Consequences for UK 2006 Offshore Wind: at a crossroads = economics 2010 crossroads = UK jobs GVA for wind in UK 850m in 2008, 11,000 jobs 2010 double? Government intent is key Looking positive... Nacelle Assembly 4-5 facilities Blade manufacture 2-3 Towers & foundations 5-6 Gearboxes 0-1 Direct-drive generators 1-2 Supply chain many, varied Being in the market works... 29
30 Forth Esbjerg Tyne/Tees Humber Eemshaven Cuxhaven Bremerhaven Emden Ijmuiden Medway Ostend Dunkerque Vlissingen
31 4. Stability beyond Round 3 Ingredients: 1. Excellent track record H&S, delivery, energy, OPEX control 2. Grid UK & beyond 3. Finance 4. UK jobs and supply 5. Significant cost improvement Commercial & technical 6. Further licensing: 2000 Round 1 9 years to peak 2003 Round 2 9 years 2009 STW 8 years 2010 Round 3 10 years 2015 awards, latest Need announcements by
32 32
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