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1 Meteorological Meteorological information information for for locust locust monitoring monitoring & & control control locusts locusts & & systems systems meteorological meteorological data data solutions solutions & & challenges challenges Keith Keith Cressman Cressman Locust Locust Forecasting Forecasting Officer Officer 99April April

2 Desert Locust countries Recession area = million km2 2 spring summer winter Invasion area = 32 million km 2 (20% of world land mass) 25 key (front-line) countries

3 Desert Locust biology a e h 25d 14d 30 days summer (Sudan interior + IND/PAK) winter (Red Sea coasts) spring (PAK/IRN)

4 Desert Locust phase change Individual locusts = no threat solitarious

5 Desert Locust phase change Individual locusts = no threat solitarious Grouping & concentration = increasing threat transiens

6 Desert Locust phase change hopper Individual bands locusts & swarms (gregarious) = = THREAT! no threat solitarious Grouping & concentration = increasing threat transiens gregarious

7 Desert Locust migration spring winter summer recessions: move within regions outbreaks/upsurges/plagues: move across continents

8 Desert Locust programmes National (Locust Control Centres) assess situation forecasts (short) plan surveys and control ops Outputs field data 10-day sit reps monthly bulletins Regional (FAO Commissions) national strengthening International (FAO HQ) assess situation forecast (6 weeks 6 months) advise NLCCs / donors monthly bulletins interim updates warnings

9 Desert Locust information flow International - FAO Desert Locust Information Service (DLIS) ( RAMSES data files, reports ) National - Locust Control Centre ( forms, elocust2 data files ) Field - survey and control teams

10 Desert Locust network FAO DLIS Direct two-way communication National Locust Control Centres FAO DLIS

11 Weather data and Desert Locusts Data Actual Forecast Use Rainfall total daily +1 day breeding decadal +10 day migration monthly +30 day planning seasonal Temperature min/max daily +1 day maturation decadal +10 day migration monthly +30 day planning seasonal Wind direction 12 h migration speed height

12 Weather thresholds Rain Temp Wind > 25 mm in two consecutive months unusual events > 20 C (egg & hopper development) > 20 C (take-off) > 18 C (sustained flight) 0-50 C (survival range) C (active range) < 10 m/s (take-off; control limits) m (migration heights)

13 Who collects & needs weather data? Survey teams (on site) collect rain data Control teams (on site) wind direction & speed NLCCs analysis & planning field ops FAO DLIS analysis & forecasting

14 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites ID Day/Mo Hr Period.mm Station Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Abu Hamed SUD Abu Hamed SUD Dongola SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Atbara SUD Khartoum SUD Khartoum SUD vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

15 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

16 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

17 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

18 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

19 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

20 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

21 Tools available to NLCCs rainfall station reports estimate / forecast rains US Navy NOAA Africa data IBIMET other web sites vegetation imagery (SPOT/MODIS) RAMSES GIS

22 Primary Primary rainfall rainfall stations stations (GTS) (GTS) Libya very few stations in the desert where locusts breed

23 Primary Primary rainfall rainfall stations stations (GTS) (GTS) Libya 1500 km 20 stations / 2.3 spring summer very few stations in the desert 2 where breed million kmlocusts Insufficient Insufficient number number of of rainfall rainfall stations stations

24 Primary Primary rainfall rainfall stations stations (GTS) (GTS) 3 stations 1 Libya 1500 km spring summer km 20 stations / 2.3 very few stations in the desert 2 where breed million kmlocusts Insufficient Insufficient number number of of rainfall rainfall stations stations

25 Primary Primary rainfall rainfall stations stations (GTS) (GTS) 3 stations 1 Libya 1500 km 7 stations spring summer km 20 stations / 2.3 very few stations in the desert 2 where breed million kmlocusts Insufficient Insufficient number number of of rainfall rainfall stations stations

26 Current weaknesses poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not use data weak NLCC / NMHS link

27 Current weaknesses poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not use data weak NLCC / NMHS link ID Day/Mo Hr Period.mm Station Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Abu Hamed SUD Abu Hamed SUD Dongola SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Atbara SUD Khartoum SUD Khartoum SUD

28 Current weaknesses poor rain station coverage national station data incomplete / errors NLCC does not use data weak NLCC / NMHS link ID Day/Mo Hr Period.mm Station Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Linguere SEN Abu Hamed SUD Abu Hamed SUD Dongola SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Atbara SUD Khartoum SUD Khartoum SUD

29 Current weaknesses Potential solutions poor rain station coverage increase rain data? national station data incomplete / errors reduce transmission errors? ID Day/Mo Hr Period.mm Station NLCC does not use data Linguere SEN Linguere SEN indicate data requirements? Linguere SEN Abu Hamed SUD weak NLCC / NMHS link Abu Hamed SUD regional workshop Dongola SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Karima SUD Atbara SUD Khartoum SUD Khartoum SUD

30 This workshop s challenges what decisions do NLCCs make that require meteo data? what data is needed (frequency, type, format)? what can NMHSs provide? how can any gaps be filled? Keith Cressman FAO Locust Forecasting Officer

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