Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)

Transcription

1 Introducing NREL s Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Manajit Sengupta Aron Habte, Anthony Lopez, Yu Xi and Andrew Weekley, NREL Christine Molling CIMMS Andrew Heidinger, NOAA International Conference on Energy Meteorology, Boulder, CO June 22-26, 2015 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

2 2 Satellite-based Modeling Approaches Empirical Approach: (original) Build model relating satellite measurements and ground observations. Use those models to obtain solar radiation at the surface from satellite measurements. Semi-Empirical Approach: (current industry standard) Retrieve cloud index using counts from visible satellite measurements Relate cloud index to clearness index Scale clear sky radiative transfer model output by clearness index Physical Approach: (the new approach) Retrieve cloud and aerosol information from satellites Use the information in a radiative transfer model

3 The Gridded NSRDB Product Satellite Input: GOES data 4 channels: 4 km : 30 min Ancillary Input: NWP Forecast or Reanalysis Snow Surface Emissivity Surface Reflectance RT Model Input: Aerosol Product from MODIS/MISR satellite and AERONET ground measurements Processing System: PATMOS-x: Cloud Algorithms Radiative Transfer: Clear Sky: REST2 Cloudy Sky: SASRAB/NREL Fast All-sky Model Cloud Products: Cloud detection Cloud type Cloud height/temperature/pressure Cloud optical depth Cloud particle size Cloud water path Irradiance and Met Products Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) Meteorological Parameters (Temperature, Humidity, Wind speed and direction etc.) 3

4 Cloud Algorithms: Cloud Mask 4 4

5 Cloud Algorithms: Cloud-top Temperature (K) 5 5

6 Cloud Algorithms: Cloud Water Path 6 6

7 Radiative Transfer: Global Horizontal Irradiance 7 7

8 8 Radiative Transfer Models Clear Sky MMAC [Davies, Shertzer and Nunez (1975), Gueymard (2003)] REST2 [Gueymard (2008)] Inputs: Gridded aerosol properties using MODIS, MISR and AERONET. Water Vapor from CFSR/Merra Cloudy Sky/All Sky SASRAB - Satellite Algorithm for Shortwave Radiation Budget FARMS - Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications Inputs: Cloud Properties, Water Vapor, Aerosol References: Gueymard, C.A., (2003). Direct Solar Transmittance and Irradiance Predictions with Broadband Models. Par I: Detailed Theoretical Performance Assessment. Solar Energy, Vol. 74, Davies, J.A., Shertzer, W., Nunez, M., (1975) Estimating Global Solar Radiation. Bound. Layer Meteor, Vol 9, Gueymard, C.A., (2008) REST2: High-performance solar radiation model for cloudless-sky irradiance, illuminance, and photosynthetically active radiation - Validation with a benchmark dataset, Solar Energy Vol. 82, Ineichen, P. and R. Perez, (2002) "A New airmass independent formulation for the Linke turbidity coefficient", Solar Energy, vol 73, pp Pinker, R. T. and I. Laszlo,1992. Modeling surface solar irradiance for satellite applications on global scale. J. Appl. Meteor., 31,

9 9 Validation of Satellite product using Ground Data NOAA SURFRAD DATASTREAMS: GHI, DNI and Diffuse Code Name Latitude Longitude Elevation Time Zone Installed BND Bondville, Illinois N W 230 m 6 hours from UTC Apr-94 TBL Table Mountain, Boulder, Colorado N W 1689 m 7 hours from UTC Jul-95 DRA Desert Rock, Nevada N W 1007 m 8 hours from UTC Mar-98 FPK Fort Peck, Montana N W 634 m 7 hours from UTC Nov-94 GCM Goodwin Creek, Mississippi N W 98 m 6 hours from UTC Dec-94 PSU Penn. State Univ., Pennsylvania N W 376 m 5 hours from UTC Jun-98 SXF Sioux Falls, South Dakota N W 473 m 6 hours from UTC Jun-03

10 DNI Desert Rock, NV 10

11 DNI Boulder, CO 11

12 DNI Goodwin Creek, MS 12

13 13 DNI Comparison Statistics Station MBE MAE RMSE Skewness Kurtosis Correlation all Desert Rock clear cloudy all Table Mountain clear cloudy all Fort Peck clear cloudy all Sioux Falls clear cloudy all Goodwin Creek clear cloudy all Bondville clear cloudy all Penn State clear cloudy

14 GHI Desert Rock, NV 14

15 GHI Boulder, CO 15

16 GHI Goodwin Creek, MS 16

17 GHI Comparison Statistics Station MBE MAE RMSE Skewness Kurtosis Correlation all Desert Rock clear cloudy all Table clear Mountain cloudy all Fort Peck clear cloudy all Sioux Falls clear cloudy all Goodwin Creek clear cloudy all Bondville clear cloudy all Penn State clear cloudy

18 18 Product Timeline Beta product ( ) available currently available Final Product ( ) available by September 2015 Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) product by September 2015 Intermediate monthly update available after September 2015 Annual dataset by following March (2015 onward).

19 19 Accessing the NSRDB Data GIS based data access with web-service for multi-pixel download

20 20 Conclusions New gridded satellite product available publicly from NREL. Datasets is 4 km, 30 minute resolution currently available with being available September. Accurate aerosol and water vapor information is critical in properly modeling clear sky GHI and DNI. Significant uncertainty in cloudy cases mostly from uncertainty in the cloud retrievals. Dataset currently available from NREL ( ).

21 Future Work Next few months? Clear Sky model to be replaced with REST2. All Sky model FARMS to replace SASRAB for clear sky. Meteorological variables from CFSR to be replaced with MERRA. Inclusion of daily variability from MACC aerosols. 5 minute data from GOES-R. Spectral long-term datasets. Datasets at Plane of Array. 21

22 22 Thank You! Contact: