North Carolina Climate Variations
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1 North Carolina Climate Variations Sethu Raman Professor of Atmospheric and Marine Sciences and State Climatologist State Climate Office of North Carolina North Carolina State University
2 Latest Drought Conditions Conditions based on input from SCO and NC Drought Management Advisory Council
3 Way Points State Climate Office of NC, brief introduction NC teleconnections Observing NC climate Short term trends in NC climate Longer term NC climate trends Summary
4 Normal Annual Mean Temperature (based on normals) Normal Annual Precipitation (based on normals)
5 State Climate Office of North Carolina A Public Service Center for Climate - Environment Interactions
6 SCO Staff and Students Sethu Raman, Director and State Climatologist Peter Robinson, NC Climate Program Coordinator Ryan Boyles, Associate State Climatologist Ameenulla Syed,, Instrumentation Meteorologist Aaron Sims, Environmental Meteorologist Mark Brooks, Environmental Meteorologist Ashley Frazier, Meteorologist 20 Graduate Students in past 10 years 30 Undergraduate Students in past 10 years
7 History of SCO SCO established at UNC-CH CH Dr. Peter Robinson, State Climatologist SCO transferred to NC State Dr. Jerry Davis, State Climatologist Sept present Dr. Sethu Raman, State Climatologist October Public Service Center for Climate Environment Interactions Today. #2 Climate Office in US
8 Mission EXTENSION & OUTREACH Provide the most accurate climate information available to the citizens of North Carolina. Assist North Carolina state agencies in climate- environment issues and related applications. Establish, operate, and maintain an extensive meteorological network across North Carolina and archive and disseminate this data to the public in a timely fashion. Assist in applications such as agriculture and environment. Increase public awareness of North Carolina climate.
9 Mission RESEARCH Study North Carolina's climate and its interaction with the environment. Investigate the effects of climatic variations on agriculture, air pollution, and natural resources and develop forecast techniques for resource management. EDUCATION Interact with K-12, K 12, undergraduate and graduate students, and with community organizations.
10 Agriculture Outreach Advisories for crop management Real-time high resolution weather model for agriculture Soil moisture forecast for Mar 4, 2006
11 Partnering with State Agencies
12 2002 Drought Conference
13 DENR Air Quality Install and maintain monitoring sensors needed by DAQ In 2005, helped DAQ save NC $650 million in federal transportation funds
14 DENR Water Resources Creating comprehensive water resource database
15 NC DOT Roadside Environmental Unit Developing a heavy rainfall alert tool using radar and surface gage data
16 Duke Power Improving drought planning in Catawba Basin
17 NC Electric Cooperatives Providing climate data for short- and long-term energy planning New weather monitors at peaking plants in Anson, Richmond Counties
18 Education Education & Training of Undergraduate and Graduate Students K-12 Outreach: Classroom presentations, host student interns
19 th th th th Brad BradStackhouse Stackhouse(7 (7th),),Rob RobCollis Collis(8 (8th),),Alex AlexVail Vail(7 (7th),),and andmelissa MelissaGregory Gregory(8 (8th))
20 WINNER WINNERof ofccms CCMS SCIENCE SCIENCEFAIR FAIR
21 Global Teleconnections and North Carolina
22 El Nino / Southern Oscillation
23 Winter Storm Frequency Average Number of Strong Winter Storms during December through February El Niño o Year Non-El Niño 12 5 This classic Nor easter quickly formed off the coast of North Carolina January 27-28, 28, The storm dumped up to 40 inches of snow in the mountains of North Carolina and over 2 inches of rain along the coast. Surface Weather 7:00 AM EST Jan 28, 1998
24 ENSO Affects NC Precipitation
25 ENSO Affects NC Temperatures
26 Observing North Carolina Climate
27 Observations from >1000 Active Stations
28 Hourly Data from >200 Sites
29 NC ECONet North Carolinaarolina Environment & Climatelimate Observingbserving Network
30 Concept. Provide unique measurements soil temperature, soil moisture, solar radiation, evaporation An advanced, state-of of-the-art network for climate and environmental observations. The NC ECONet,, in its full capacity, will have more than 100 weather and environmental observing stations across North Carolina with a minimum of one per county!
31 10 m Towers and Sensors at International Standards
32 Climate Variations over the past 50 years
33 Temperature & Precipitation Stations Used in Precipitation Analysis 50 Stations Used in Temperature Analysis
34 Maximum Temperature Trends Annual Maximum Temperature Trends Temperature change in degrees Fahrenheit per year
35 Precipitation Trends Annual Precipitation Trends Precipitation change in inches per year
36 Historical Climate Network 25 stations in NC
37 Stations Analyzed Henderson 2 NNW Henderson 2 NNW Elizabeth City Elizabeth City Banner Elk Banner Elk Lenoir Lenoir Chapel Hill 2 W Chapel Hill 2 Goldsboro 4 SE Goldsboro 4 SE Waynesville 1 E Waynesville 1 E Monroe 4 SE Monroe 4 SE Southport 5 N Southport 5 N
38 Coastal: Elizabeth City (Mean T) ~3.17 o F increase over 100 years
39 Coastal: Elizabeth City (Annual) ~2.3 in decrease over 100 years
40 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Mean T) ~1.16 o F increase over 100 years
41 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Maximum T) ~0.08 o F increase over 100 years
42 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Minimum T) ~1.93 o F increase over 100 years
43 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Annual) ~4.1 in decrease over 100 years
44 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Winter Precip) ~0.15 in decrease over 100 years
45 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Spring) ~0.28 in decrease over 100 years
46 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Summer) ~ 4.89 in decrease over 100 years
47 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Fall) ~ 2.13 in increase over 100 years
48 Piedmont: Monroe 4 SE ~1.92 o F increase over 100 years
49 Mountain: Lenoir ~0.52 o F decrease over 100 years
50 Mountain: Lenoir (cont d) ~2.79 in increase over 100 years
51 Table of Changes in Annual Mean Temperature Red: greatest positive change Green: least change Blue: greatest negative change
52 Table of Changes in Annual Precipitation Red: greatest positive change Green: least change Blue: greatest negative change
53 Correlation Coefficients Station TAVG TMAX TMIN PRCP Southport 5 N Elizabeth City Goldsboro 4 SE Chapel Hill 2 W Henderson 2 NNW Monroe 4 SE Banner Elk Lenoir
54 Summary North Carolina climate is influenced by global tele-connections There are (statistically) significant variations in North Carolina climate at different locations during the past 100 years There is a need for improved density of climate observations (at least one in each county) in North Carolina
55 Thank You!
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