North Carolina Climate Variations

Transcription

1 North Carolina Climate Variations Sethu Raman Professor of Atmospheric and Marine Sciences and State Climatologist State Climate Office of North Carolina North Carolina State University

2 Latest Drought Conditions Conditions based on input from SCO and NC Drought Management Advisory Council

3 Way Points State Climate Office of NC, brief introduction NC teleconnections Observing NC climate Short term trends in NC climate Longer term NC climate trends Summary

4 Normal Annual Mean Temperature (based on normals) Normal Annual Precipitation (based on normals)

5 State Climate Office of North Carolina A Public Service Center for Climate - Environment Interactions

6 SCO Staff and Students Sethu Raman, Director and State Climatologist Peter Robinson, NC Climate Program Coordinator Ryan Boyles, Associate State Climatologist Ameenulla Syed,, Instrumentation Meteorologist Aaron Sims, Environmental Meteorologist Mark Brooks, Environmental Meteorologist Ashley Frazier, Meteorologist 20 Graduate Students in past 10 years 30 Undergraduate Students in past 10 years

7 History of SCO SCO established at UNC-CH CH Dr. Peter Robinson, State Climatologist SCO transferred to NC State Dr. Jerry Davis, State Climatologist Sept present Dr. Sethu Raman, State Climatologist October Public Service Center for Climate Environment Interactions Today. #2 Climate Office in US

8 Mission EXTENSION & OUTREACH Provide the most accurate climate information available to the citizens of North Carolina. Assist North Carolina state agencies in climate- environment issues and related applications. Establish, operate, and maintain an extensive meteorological network across North Carolina and archive and disseminate this data to the public in a timely fashion. Assist in applications such as agriculture and environment. Increase public awareness of North Carolina climate.

9 Mission RESEARCH Study North Carolina's climate and its interaction with the environment. Investigate the effects of climatic variations on agriculture, air pollution, and natural resources and develop forecast techniques for resource management. EDUCATION Interact with K-12, K 12, undergraduate and graduate students, and with community organizations.

10 Agriculture Outreach Advisories for crop management Real-time high resolution weather model for agriculture Soil moisture forecast for Mar 4, 2006

11 Partnering with State Agencies

12 2002 Drought Conference

13 DENR Air Quality Install and maintain monitoring sensors needed by DAQ In 2005, helped DAQ save NC $650 million in federal transportation funds

14 DENR Water Resources Creating comprehensive water resource database

15 NC DOT Roadside Environmental Unit Developing a heavy rainfall alert tool using radar and surface gage data

16 Duke Power Improving drought planning in Catawba Basin

17 NC Electric Cooperatives Providing climate data for short- and long-term energy planning New weather monitors at peaking plants in Anson, Richmond Counties

18 Education Education & Training of Undergraduate and Graduate Students K-12 Outreach: Classroom presentations, host student interns

19 th th th th Brad BradStackhouse Stackhouse(7 (7th),),Rob RobCollis Collis(8 (8th),),Alex AlexVail Vail(7 (7th),),and andmelissa MelissaGregory Gregory(8 (8th))

20 WINNER WINNERof ofccms CCMS SCIENCE SCIENCEFAIR FAIR

21 Global Teleconnections and North Carolina

22 El Nino / Southern Oscillation

23 Winter Storm Frequency Average Number of Strong Winter Storms during December through February El Niño o Year Non-El Niño 12 5 This classic Nor easter quickly formed off the coast of North Carolina January 27-28, 28, The storm dumped up to 40 inches of snow in the mountains of North Carolina and over 2 inches of rain along the coast. Surface Weather 7:00 AM EST Jan 28, 1998

24 ENSO Affects NC Precipitation

25 ENSO Affects NC Temperatures

26 Observing North Carolina Climate

27 Observations from >1000 Active Stations

28 Hourly Data from >200 Sites

29 NC ECONet North Carolinaarolina Environment & Climatelimate Observingbserving Network

30 Concept. Provide unique measurements soil temperature, soil moisture, solar radiation, evaporation An advanced, state-of of-the-art network for climate and environmental observations. The NC ECONet,, in its full capacity, will have more than 100 weather and environmental observing stations across North Carolina with a minimum of one per county!

31 10 m Towers and Sensors at International Standards

32 Climate Variations over the past 50 years

33 Temperature & Precipitation Stations Used in Precipitation Analysis 50 Stations Used in Temperature Analysis

34 Maximum Temperature Trends Annual Maximum Temperature Trends Temperature change in degrees Fahrenheit per year

35 Precipitation Trends Annual Precipitation Trends Precipitation change in inches per year

36 Historical Climate Network 25 stations in NC

37 Stations Analyzed Henderson 2 NNW Henderson 2 NNW Elizabeth City Elizabeth City Banner Elk Banner Elk Lenoir Lenoir Chapel Hill 2 W Chapel Hill 2 Goldsboro 4 SE Goldsboro 4 SE Waynesville 1 E Waynesville 1 E Monroe 4 SE Monroe 4 SE Southport 5 N Southport 5 N

38 Coastal: Elizabeth City (Mean T) ~3.17 o F increase over 100 years

39 Coastal: Elizabeth City (Annual) ~2.3 in decrease over 100 years

40 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Mean T) ~1.16 o F increase over 100 years

41 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Maximum T) ~0.08 o F increase over 100 years

42 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Minimum T) ~1.93 o F increase over 100 years

43 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Annual) ~4.1 in decrease over 100 years

44 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Winter Precip) ~0.15 in decrease over 100 years

45 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Spring) ~0.28 in decrease over 100 years

46 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Summer) ~ 4.89 in decrease over 100 years

47 Piedmont: Chapel Hill 2 W (Fall) ~ 2.13 in increase over 100 years

48 Piedmont: Monroe 4 SE ~1.92 o F increase over 100 years

49 Mountain: Lenoir ~0.52 o F decrease over 100 years

50 Mountain: Lenoir (cont d) ~2.79 in increase over 100 years

51 Table of Changes in Annual Mean Temperature Red: greatest positive change Green: least change Blue: greatest negative change

52 Table of Changes in Annual Precipitation Red: greatest positive change Green: least change Blue: greatest negative change

53 Correlation Coefficients Station TAVG TMAX TMIN PRCP Southport 5 N Elizabeth City Goldsboro 4 SE Chapel Hill 2 W Henderson 2 NNW Monroe 4 SE Banner Elk Lenoir

54 Summary North Carolina climate is influenced by global tele-connections There are (statistically) significant variations in North Carolina climate at different locations during the past 100 years There is a need for improved density of climate observations (at least one in each county) in North Carolina

55 Thank You!