World Meteorological Organization COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

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1 World Meteorological Organization COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES RESPONSE OF THE CAS EXPERT TEAM ON WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH (ET-WMR) ON THE PROPOSED UAE/NCMS INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH (ICWMR) (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, March 2010)

2 2 1. INTRODUCTION During the meeting of the WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification Research (ET-WMR) from 22 to 24 March 2010 in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, a proposal was tabled and presented by the National Center for Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS), to establish an International Center for Weather Modification Research (ICWMR) in the UAE and recognized by WMO as a center promoting international weather modification research, training and related science (aerosols, cloud physics and meteorological research). The proposal suggested that: (a) (b) (c) (d) The WMO ET-WMR will be the steering committee for the ICMWR providing guidance for its future development and advice on workshops needed. ICWMR would support important international field programs in weather modification research and cloud seeding research experiments in developing countries Universities would be involved. The Center will have its own budget provided by UAE/NCMS for ICWMR to conduct: WMO ET-WMR meetings on annual basis. international WMO scientific conferences on weather modification focused workshops on weather modification research issues training courses in weather modification research (recommended by the ET-WMR and the WMO training department) issuance of grants/awards for scientific achievements in weather modification. (d) If approved by WMO, the National Centre for Meteorology and Seismology (NCMS) of the United Arab Emirates would prepare a proposal to the UAE government to establish the ICWMR and provide the associated operating budgets. Once WMO and UAE government approves the establishment of the ICWMR, NCMS would establish a consultancy team with input from the ET-WMR to organize and establish the ICWMR and its associated infrastructure and administration. This document is the assessment of the proposal by the ET-WMR including recommendations for consideration by UAE/NCMS and WMO. 2. BACKGROUND AND RATIONALE 2.1 The Need For Sustained Coordinated International Research On WM Growing pressures on natural resources due to the growth in human populations compounded by the emerging impacts of Global Climate Change have ensured that many nations of the world continue to pursue weather modification activities. The fact that the world population and its requirements has more than doubled since the post World War II years when modern weather modification concepts were initiated, makes it quite clear that effective weather modification technologies to increase precipitation, reduce hail and other damaging weather phenomena as well as to clear fog would be highly desirable. It is now clear that inadvertent weather modification has potentially changed aerosol, cloud and precipitation properties in many places around the world although our understanding of these effects are still limited. Despite advances in the past two decades in technology to support research activities related to weather modification, there have only been a few experiments with the sole aim to increase the science of weather modification. As a matter of fact, the weather modification community has systematically drifted away from the research communities involved in cloud physics, cloud dynamics, aerosol-cloud interaction studies etc. The WMO Expert Team on Weather Modification Research (ET-WMR) has identified this state of affairs as a primary stumbling block to progress. Furthermore, this state of affairs is compounded by the ad hoc nature of many weather modification experiments which most of the time do not have a stable funding

3 3 base sufficient to allow the time required for sustained research needed to reach useful conclusions. This situation is also not conducive for capacity building of a new generation of scientists to spearhead progress in the field. A sustained effort in support of international weather modification research through which the ET-WMR can recommend specific priority research areas would make a significant contribution towards addressing the pressing needs that have been identified. The most immediate needs regarding the coordination of international weather modification research are the following: (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Sustainable support for the activities of the WMO ET-WMR as required by the implementation of the World Weather Research Programme (see section2.2) Support for the WMO quadrennial Scientific Conference on Weather Modification that promotes the scientific progress and debate; An award scheme to recognise excellence in scientific and technological contributions towards weather modification; A fellowship and scholarship programme as an incentive mechanism to build capacity in the field; A physical facility with the necessary infrastructure from which specific weather modification research activities can be tested for the benefit of the international weather modification community. 2.2 WMO Role in Weather Modification Research The WMO Secretariat in Geneva provides support to Members on weather modification research through the Expert Team on Weather Modification Research (ET-WMR) of the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The activities are implemented by the WMO Research Department under advice and guidance of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS). The scope and research priorities of the Expert Team are described in the Strategic Plan for the Implementation of WWRP: (WMO TD. No: 1505; WWRP Report No: WWRP at the website The Secretariat maintains a registry of national activities in weather modification. In 2008, more than 30 countries reported activities. Some countries have a single national programme while others have numerous projects conducted by a variety of government or commercial groups. In May 2007, the Fifteenth WMO Congress (Cg-XV) noted that weather modification activities conducted by a number of Members were aimed at improving the economy, for example, to increase a water supply for agriculture, or to reduce the risks associated with high impact weather such as frost, fog and hail. It strongly recommended that such activities be supported by research and modelling that provided: (a) a deeper understanding of the effects of cloud modification on cloud/precipitation development; and (b) a scientifically accepted evaluation of the weather modification activities. It also encouraged Members to take into account economic, social, ecological and legal aspects when weather modification activities were applied. The Congress decided to establish a trust fund for support of weather modification research activities and urged Members and other parties to contribute to the trust fund. Advancement of weather modification research is now done through (i) contributions to the WMO trust fund that target specific activities as well as through (ii) direct in-kind contributions from Members supporting key international weather modification activities. 2.3 History of UAE/NCMS activities The UAE/NCMS has been on the forefront of weather modification research over the past ten years and has made substantial investments into advancing the science of weather modification. A major scientific program was conducted from 2000 to 2005 to understand aerosol,

4 4 cloud and precipitation characteristics in the region including the establishment of an automatic weather station and weather radar network, and airborne measurements of trace gases, aerosols and cloud properties utilizing and instrumented research aircraft. The NCMS has since shown to be able to maintain and support this infrastructure which is often a problem in many other countries. After the initial investigations it was shown that convective activity in the UAE occurs most frequently during the summer months and is restricted mostly to the mountains in the north eastern part of the UAE and western Oman. As part of this extended program approximately sixty self-funded scientists from the United States, South Africa, Netherlands and Poland undertook atmospheric research in the UAE between July and October This project is known as the Unified Aerosol Experiment over the UAE (UAE 2 ). There were a number of scientifically sound and practical reasons for many scientists of the world to converge to the region for the UAE 2 study. Dust and the desert atmosphere remain an important unresolved aspect of global climate change science. The Southwest Asian region has been shown to be difficult to assess due in part to the fact that satellite data is complicated to interpret for this part of the world. The factors that make interpretation of space borne observations problematic are mostly a function of the extensive bright desert surfaces and shallow water which disrupt satellites ability to subtract the surface from the atmosphere. The hot desert, sharp mountains and seas also makes the application of meteorology models difficult. Because the infrastructure and available support in the UAE, made possible through the NCMS, is much greater than other potential study locations, the UAE is the most logical location for ongoing intensive research. In particular, because of its varying terrain and extensive network of weather stations and radar network the UAE is an ideal location to work to improve the science of weather modification and many other applications such as satellite and meteorology systems. Nowhere else in the world can the desert and coastal atmosphere be studied in such detail. Several spatial and temporal scales of the atmosphere can also be studied simultaneously. From the afternoon sea breeze to large-scale climate patterns that cover all of Southwest Asia, in few places are there such interplay of varying meteorological phenomenon and convergence of pollution from various places of the globe. In addition, the higher authorities in the UAE have indicated a long-term (multi-year) commitment to support further progress in the field of deliberate and inadvertent weather modification research. Apart from continued support for research in the field of weather modification exemplified by ongoing research projects in the country another example of this commitment is the International Prize for Weather Modification operations and research that was sponsored by the UAE government in The UAE government intends to again institute an award for significant achievements in the science of weather modification. 2.4 Proposal by the NCMS in the UAE for ICWMR recognized by WMO Based on the above considerations the WMO ET on Weather Modification Research support the proposal from NCMS and recommend moving forward with the establishment of the ICWMR. The following sections will further detail and recommend the purposes, functions and operation of the ICWMR. 3. THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR WEATHER MODIFICATION RESEARCH (ICWMR) 3.1 Purpose of the ICWMR The International Centre for Weather Modification Research (ICWMR) main purpose is to create a sustainable and stable environment to promote the science of weather modification. Scientific oversight by the WMO ET-WMR will ensure that research activities, training needs, infrastructure development and scientific debate are aligned to the needs in this fields as identified by the ET through a systematic process of scientific review. The ICWMR will ensure access and be open to all members of WMO and take into account the weather modification research requirements on a global scale, specifically the needs of scientific credible programmes in developing countries.

5 5 3.2 Guidance The International Advisory Group of ICWMR (WMO ET-WMR) Through a thorough scientific review, supported also by other experts, the WMO ET-WMR will collate all the relevant scientific information and evidence pertaining to weather modification and its links to other emerging issues such as climate change and geo-engineering. Through this process the gaps in current knowledge will be identified that will inform focused research interventions and actions. Based on this foundation of knowledge, the ET-WMR will then, recommend how such research activities could be supported by the ICWMR. In addition, the ET- WMR will provide guidance on capacity building techniques and assist in the development and implementation of a process for an objective award scheme in atmospheric science and technology related to weather modification National Steering Group (NSG) A national steering group would be appointed by the United Arab Emirates and the NCMS to assist in the establishment of ICWMR and, in particular, to advise on its national activities and facilities. 3.3 Definition of the Role of the International Centre for Weather Modification Research (ICWMR) General objective To coordinate national UAE weather modification research and support the activities of thewmo ET-WMR including the development and implementation of specific activities to the benefit of the international weather modification community Specific Functions and/or Tasks of the ICWMR a. Provide a physical secretariat headed by an Executive Director of ICWMR from UAE with the necessary infrastructure and resources in Abu Dhabi to conduct national UAE and international WMO activities of the ICWMR. b. Promote and conduct internationally recognized basic research on different aspects of weather modification and related scientific fields. c. Support the annual meetings of the WMO ET-WMR. d. Support one scientific expert workshop on atmospheric science related to weather modification per year. {The WMO ET-WMR would like to suggest that the first ET-WMR workshop be planned for 1-5 November The purpose of this workshop will be to develop an overview document on the current status and needs in weather modification research around the world. This document would provide a basis for the further development of the center and highlight needs and future directions in weather modification research. Around 20 to 30 scientists could be invited to the workshop including the ET-WMR} e. Sponsor the WMO Quadrennial Scientific Conference on Weather Modification. {The next conference was already planned for November 2011 in Bali Indonesia. However, no support is available at this moment for the conference and we would like to suggest that the ICWMR support the conference, including a site visit in June 2010 of the chair of ET- WMR and a scientific officer, Secretariat}

6 6 f. UAE Awards. The UAE Award scheme for weather modification research is viewed as a crucial component of the ICWMR which would stimulate improved science and technology to underpin progress in this field. The scheme should be focussed on both the recognition of excellence either on an individual and/or team basis. Coordinate awards/grants/prizes by the ICWMR. The ET-WMR agreed that the following awards would be effective in achieving this goal and that proper support for administration of the awards is essential: i. one bi-annual UAE Prize for outstanding atmospheric research related to WMR (individual or team) ii. iii. iv. Four WMO quadrennial awards, for (i)best overall paper, and (ii) best overall poster, (iii)best young scientist paper and (iv) best young scientists poster at the WMO Scientific Conference on WMR Bi-annual award for best peer reviewed paper on atmospheric science related to WMR Bi-annual innovation award for newly developed technical systems g. Support fellowships/scholarships for academic research and training. {This is in response to a scarcity of young scientists in the international weather modification research community. The ET-WMR strongly recommends a fellowship and scholarship aimed at the identification of upcoming talent in this field to assist them to become the core of a new generation of experts in atmospheric science related to weather modification} h. Support capacity building of technical capabilities, research and infrastructure in developing countries. (NCMS) i. Carry out atmospheric research related to WM (NCMS) j. Promote and sponsor international collaborative research in atmospheric science related to weather modification research (e.g. Field campaigns, model development and evaluation etc). 4. ESTIMATED INTERNATIONAL RESOURCE REQUIREMENTS FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ICWMR AT UAE/NCMS In order to fulfil its obligations and support the ICWMR and new developments in weather modification research, the WMO ET-WMR suggests that the following activities of the ET-WMR work are sponsored by the UAE ICWMR through the WMO trust fund on Weather Modification Research. The different ET-WMR activities are summarized in Table ESTABLISHMENT OF THE CENTRE The ET-WMR considered the process of implementation of ICWMR and has broken the process into the following steps. The first step is rather urgent as it involves activities in November 2010: i. Provision of resources via WMO trust fund for a site visit of two people to Bali for the International Science Conference and to host an expert workshop in 1-5 November 2010 in Geneva to develop an overview document on the current status and needs in weather modification research around the world. This document would provide a basis for the further development of the ICWMR and highlight needs and future directions in weather modification research (see Section d above) ii. Approval of the ICWMR concept in principle by WMO through CAS management group.

7 7 iii. iv. Approval of UAE government in principle to establish ICWMR through NCMS Development of an MOU between WMO and UAE/NCMS/ICWMR. v. Obtain agreement on MOU by WMO through CAS and by UAE through NCMS and establish the centre at WMO Congress May Table 1 Support of WMO Expert Team Activities (through WMO Secretariat and WMO Trust Fund) Function 1. Annual meetings of ET (10 ET Members meet for 3 days rotated through Abu Dhabi every third year) 2. Annual expert workshop (ET plus 10 invited experts for 5 days plus report production) 3. Base funding of WMO Secretariat for ¼ PY secretarial support 4. Quadrennial Scientific Conference on WMR (secretarial support of WMO, participation of ET, invited speakers and scientists from developing countries, report production/publication)

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