FLOOD MONITORING and FORECASTING IN VIET NAM

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1 ASIAN WATER CYCLE SYMPOSIUM TOKYO, 2-4 NOV FLOOD MONITORING and FORECASTING IN VIET NAM Dr. Nguyen Thi Tan Thanh, National Hydro-Meteorological Service (NHMS) of the Ministry of National Resources and Environment (MONRE)

2 1. Introduction Viet Nam has around 331,000 km 2 of natural land. Located in monsoon humid tropics, Viet Nam is affected by both oceanic and continental climates, especially flood and inundation. There are 2,360 rivers and streams that have lengths longer than 10 km, in the central of VietNam: 740. The coastal plains are not large but densely populated (60% of population) with many important and rather developed political, socioeconomic centers. Most plains are with low elevation, easy to be flooded or inundated.

3 Introduction Rainfall is unevenly distributed in time and space. More than 70% of annual rainfall occurs in raining season. Total flow of rivers in Viet Nam reaches 650 km 3 /year, equivalent to a flow depth of 960 mm. Ratio of flood and low flow varies from 1.5 to 30. Severe floods were recorded in 1945, 1969, 1971, 1978, 1983, 1993, 1990, 1996, 1998, 1999 and In period of , death toll of 13,300 people. Flood rising rate, amplitude and peaks are high. Flood rising intensity in mountainous rivers may reach 2-5m/hour; downstream plains 20-50cm/hour. Flood amplitude in mountainous areas may reach 10-20m, higher than 25m in some places.

4 1. Introduction High Flood and inundation last for about 2-7 days in the central part of Viet Nam, 7-15 days in the northern part of Viet Nam, and 3-4 months in the Mekong River delta. Depth of inundation is about 2-4m, in some places it would reach 5-8m. Combination of typhoon, storm surge, heavy rain and high tidal level would cause the flood more severe.

5 2. FLOOD IN THE CENTRAL VIET NAM Often associated with heavy rains, typhoons, tropical depressions, occur in a large area covering some provinces or almost the whole region. Rivers are steep, times of concentration are short, and downstream areas have low drainage capacity. Somehow can be classified as flash floods. Tide and storm surge play a certain role in increasing inundation. Flood and inundation in the Central Viet Nam is ranged as the most severe. It occurs with high frequency causing prolonged inundation in small, narrow coastal areas where socio-economic centers and densely populated areas are located.

6 N. Ph a Xan g N. Ko Voi r 73 3 LÖTh ñy 91 8 N. Len Mu K.Gian g Xt-ng T Reng KraCh ª 30 Th anh S n 262 Ph. Na 1246 Xª «n 136 Sª San Ba Reng Xa La v n Cöa NhËt LÖ ång Hí i G. Vßn g S. Cam K.Sanh N. Ko Ka L i 376 Srª P«c c Xª K«ng T. Rät 30 7 Lé T. H n A.L- íi 2066 T.L - n g Mò ilai Cöa Tï ng «ng Hµ Qu ng TrÞ P.è c Srª P«c T.L µi S. Sa ThÇy. Cån Cá S«ng Bå u Tr¹ ch H S«ng 856 N. ång 20 7 Trao huõ K. øc T.N hët AÝNghÜa Hé ikh ch Ng äc B B ai. Mèt. T«S. ThÇy T. Ng hüa Kr«ng P K« Bung Cöa ThuËn An T. Mü L y µ n½ng S.B nh Yaly B. Hå Bu«n Ma Thuét N«ng.Nga B. «n Ia Só p ø c Xuy ª n S Kin a B o Lé c C i Dray Linh M. Ch n M y «ng G. T hñy N.S n Q.S n H. ø c 50 4 T.P h- í c Tam Kú Ng äc Cring Kon Tum Hßn S n Trµ B S n Trµ M. N½ng. oa Play Ku 92 2 CÇu 14 G.S n S.Thu Bån VÞnh µ N½ng C u L u Cï La o Cöa ¹ i Hßn Tai Hé ian T.My Ngh Ð 80 3 B Hå K. Plong µ L¹ t L.K h- ng Tr Bån g S. Hµ S.Giang G.Vùc Ba T Kr Bóc Hå L k A. Khª 71 1 S«ng Ba KrBóc Dac Crom Bung S«ng Ba V. S n A. YunP a D- ng Chµm Hßn Chån g Hßn ng C. æ Tr K hóc K. VÜnh P.R ý L.S n T..Mü S.VÖ A. Hoµ B. S n S«ng Ba S. HµGiao B. T-ên g S. Kú Lé 654 Cñ ng S n S. Hinh M. r ¾c 205 Ninh Hoµ Cï l a o Bê B i M.B a lµ ng An Qu ng Ng i S. Huú nh H. Nh n Quy Nh n Cöa ¹ i GHI CHó Tr¹ m o m- a Tr¹ m th ñy v n o l- u l-î ng Tr¹m thñy v n o mùc n-í c ång Tr ng C. Tra C u C N 892 T. Ho 863 Hµ B»ng.Lý S n ( C ï la o rð) S. µ R»ng K.S n PhanRang Th p Chµm V V. Cï Lao Cá 361 B. Ph- íc Mai Cï L ao Xanh M. «ng D i ª n Çm Loan T. Hoµ P. L m n Phong nha trang Hßn Tre Hßn Mun Hßn Ngo¹ i V. Cam Ra h n M. V ch M ¹ i L nh Mòi «i B..Hßn Gèm H ßn Lí n Map of Rivers in the Centre Viet Nam H NH 1. s å m¹ ng l-í i s«ng ngßi c c s«ng MIÒN TRUNG

7 2.1. Data information collection, processing for operational forecast -International Station Network -National Telegraphic Station Network consisting of: synoptic stations rainfall stations hydrologic stations

8 + 5 weather radar stations. + 3 low resolution satellite stations + 1 high resolution GMS and NOOA satellite stations.

9 2.2. RAINFALL Large amount of rainfall with high intensity. Maximum daily rainfall: mm. 24 hours max rainfall reached the highest value in Vietnam: 1,384 mm at Hue, and 1,009 mm at Son Giang.

10 Rainfall 7 hr 2 nd to 7 h 3 rd /11/1999 Chó ThÝch > 1000 mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm

11 S.Thu Bån S. ång Nai M.Ho 400 ång Híi T.NhËt N.S n SG T. Khóc P.L.cu QNh n B n «n B.M.ThuËt S.Gianh Thakhec Savannakhet P¾c xõ Xª K«ng Sg. Sª San Sg. Srª pèc Krachª Kong P«ng Chµm T.Ninh Ghi chó mm mm mm > 2000 mm huõ µ N½ng C u L u Q.Ng i B.T 300 K.Tum 200 C.S n P.L m S«ng.Ba 50 N. Trang.L¹t 100 Tµ Lµi rainfall isohyetal map (from 19 h 30.X to 7 h 6.XI.1999) K«ng S«ng M ª

12 2.3. Flood season on main rivers in the Central VietNam

13 FLOOD IN 1999 (cm) Qu ng TrÞ (cm) LÖThuû (cm) Hu Õ (cm) Phó èc (cm) 1100 i NghÜa (cm) 600 C u L u

14 FLOOD IN 1999 (cm) Trµ Khóc (cm) 600 S«ng VÖ (cm) Ninh Hoµ (cm) Phó L m (cm) T n Mü (cm) 1200 ång Tr ng

15 3. INUNDATION in the Central Vietnam

16 Inundation In historical floods in 1999 in the Central Vietnam

17 Inundation Map September 1978 flood in Nghe An - Ha Tinh Plain

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30 Inundation Map November 1987 flood in Kon River Plain (Binh Dinh Province)

31 Inundation Map October 1983 flood in Da Rang River Plain (Phu Yen Province)

32 Inundation Map XI.1978 flood in Cai Nha Trang River Plain (Khanh Hoa Province)

33 Flood Warning Tower

34 4. Hydrological Forecasting Forecasting is made year-round in form of three types: short-range, medium-range and long-range forecasting Short-range forecasting -Rainfall forecasts with lead time of 2-3 days are made and used as inputs for hydrological forecasts - During raining season from June to December river flow and stage of main rivers are made daily with lead time of 24 to 48 hrs for rivers in the North, 6 to 24 hrs for rivers in central part.

35 4.1. Short-range forecasting (cont.) - In case river stage exceeds the alert level II, information on flood situation and flood forecasting bulletins are disseminated twice a day and three times per day if it exceeds the alert level III In emergency 8 to 24 forecasts are made within a day

36 4.2- Medium and long-range forecasting - Medium-range hydro-meteorological forecasting bulletin is regularly disseminated 5 times per day during rainy season and 10 times per day during dry months - Long-range HM forecasting bulletin is released monthly or every three month in a year - Forecasting parameters are water discharge and stage as well as possible drought and water shortage in main river systems

37 4.3. Dissemination of forecasting bulletin - Flood - forecasting is provided to the TV and Radio broadcasting agencies, some central daily newspapers as well as posted on the website of - RHMC and PHMFC daily provide the forecasting to the Provincial Flood and Storm Control Committees (PFSCCs), the local TV and radio broadcasting agencies with the hydromet forecasting bulletin. - Information bulletin on flooding is delivered

38 5. Forecasting techniques - Rainfall-runoff models, method of corresponding stage and multivariable regression have been used to produce short-term river forecasts. - In recent years, different models like SSARR, TANK, NAM have been applied in flood forecasting of small and medium size rivers. Hydrological and Hydraulic models have also been used in forecasting storm for central part and lower parts of the big river basins like Red and Mekong rivers

39 5. Forecasting techniques (cont.) - Medium-term and long-term hydromet forecasts are made mainly using statistical methods like time series analysis, multivariable regression, analogue etc. methods. - Forecasting operation has been automated in term of data/information collection, processing, updating and inputting to models as well as preparation of forecasting bulletin. - Forecasting accuracy is 75-85% for short-term, and 65-70% medium term and long- term forecasts respectively

40 6. Recommendations 6.1- Capacity building - Establishment of flood and flash flood warning and forecasting system on the Thu Bon river system (Quang Nam Province) or in Quang Ngai Provice (Tra Khuc and Song Ve rivers), where flood and flash flood frequently occur: - Improvement of the hydromet station network - Rainfall estimation: conventional method, Satellite and Radar data.

41 6. Recommendations - More efficient use of hydrologic and hydraulic models (e.g. DEM based distributed models); -Training, Education 6.2- Improving the warning system for flood and flash flood.

42 Map Thu Bon river system (Area:10,350km 2 )

43 Thu Bon river system

44 Station Water level station Rainfall Station N«ng S n N«ng S n Trµ Mi, HiÖp øc, N«ng S n, QuÕS n, S n T n Thµnh Mü Thµnh Mü Kh m øc, Thµnh Giao Thñy i NghÜa C u L u Giao Thñy, N«ng S n, Thµnh Mü i NghÜa N«ng S n, Thµnh Mü, Héi Kh ch C u L u, N«ng S n, Thµnh Mü, Héi An Mü N«ng S n, Trµ My, S n T n, QuÕ S n, Thµnh Mü, Kh m øc, Trao. N«ng S n, Trµ My, S n T n, QuÕ S n, Thµnh Mü, Kh m øc vµ Trao. Giao Thñy, i NghÜa, C u L u, Héi An, vµ µ N½ng Forecast Lead Time Model Efficiency 0 hr 0,73 24 hrs 0,83 24 hrs 0,98 24 hrs 0,97 24 hrs 0,98

45 Map rivers of Quang Ngai Province (Area: Trµ Khóc: 3,240km 2, s«ng VÖ: 1,250km 2 )

46 Tra Khuc River Ve River Son Giang An Chi 6 h Tra Khuc 4 h Song Ve

47 River Station Water level station Rainfall Station Forecast L ead Time Tra Khuc Song V e Son Giang Son Giang Gia Vuc, Son Gian 0 hr Tra Khuc Tra Khuc Tra Khuc, Quang Ngai 6 hr An Chi An Chi Ba To, An Chi. 0 hr Song V e Song V e Song V e. 4 hr

48 Thank you

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