2018 Fall (Winter) Outlook & Extreme Rainfall Events. with Jerry Shields

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1 2018 Fall (Winter) Outlook & Extreme Rainfall Events with Jerry Shields September 19, 2018

2 ENSO conditions 3-Month Outlook Fall 2018 / Hint of Winter Extreme Rainfall Challenges A New Era for Weather Services 2

3 Temperatures Anomaly to Sept.18

4 Nino 4 Nino 3 Nino ENSO Regions - Current Conditions

5 5 Current ENSO 3.4 Conditions

6 6 ENSO 3.4 Forecast (last month inset)

7 7 ENSO Ensemble Outlook

8 Matching Years for October Matching Years for Fall Matching Years for Winter 2009/ /08 8 Best Matching Analogs for the Coming Months

9 9 October 2018 Temperatures from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

10 10 October 2018 Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

11 11 November 2018 Temperatures from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

12 12 November 2018 Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

13 13 Fall 2018 Temperatures from Normal(inset is previous month s forecast)

14 14 Fall 2018 Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

15 15 December 2018 Temperatures from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

16 16 December 2018 Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

17 17 January 2019Temperatures from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

18 18 January Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

19 19 Winter 18/19 Temperatures from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

20 20 Winter 18/19 Precipitation from Normal (inset is previous month s forecast)

21 A sunny dry spell unmatched in more than 70 years arrived in September. There wasn t a trace of rain in Toronto from August 31 to September 18. The dry spell was also sunny and warm, with 50 per cent more sunshine and temperatures about 3 degrees higher than normal. An unusually mild and storm-free November in Toronto featured not a single snowflake falling at a weather observing site. It was the first snow-free November recorded since 1937 at Pearson International Airport. 21 Fall Weather Events of 2009

22 Nature Makes Up With Warm Fall An incredibly long run of benign weather in October and November - mild temperatures, clear skies, sunny and dry weather. In central Canada, temperatures averaged two degrees warmer than normal and in places precipitation was about one third of normal. Golf courses appeared busier than at any time during the summer. September was especially mild, dry and sunny, ideal weather for grapes to sweeten. Further, fall foliage was finally spectacular after two or three disappointing years. 22 Fall Weather Events of 2004

23 Snowless in Toronto An unusually mild and storm-free November in Toronto featured not a single snowflake falling at a weather observing site. It was the first snow-free November recorded since 1937 at Pearson International Airport. Even more remarkable, downtown at Canada s oldest weather station where snowfall observing first began in 1847 not even a trace of snow (less than 0.2 cm) fell, for the first time ever. Ottawa s Record January Rainfall On January 25, a large juicy Colorado low tracked northeast across the upper Great Lakes into northern Ontario drawing thawing and soaking weather into most of southern portion of the province. Several hours of freezing rain preceded the spring weather over the Ottawa Valley. A new all-time January record for daily rainfall (43.6 mm) was set at Ottawa 23 Winter Weather Events of 2009/2010

24 High-Impact Extreme Rainfall Events of 2018 Forecasting Challenges of These Ever More Frequent Events in Ontario 24

25 <5mm >50mm <5mm DVP August 7 th 2018 Toronto >50mm <2mm 25 Extreme Rain Events are Occurring with Precision. Can/Does your weather service work at this scale?

26 GOGAMA ARBUTUS LAKE FLAME LAKE 26 Widespread and Extreme the New Normal

27 27

28 28 No meteorologist then no RED oval. Pure Automation

29 29 So you wan to to shop your own weather for situational awareness? Where do you find the time? Dozens of options.

30 30 Is the sky falling? Can you risk manage an entire occupation?

31 31 The RED oval is your meteorologist at work.

32 32 #ParrySound33

33 33 When a Meteorologist Meets Mesoscale Forecasting

34 If automation of meteorology continues; expect a steady erosion of meteorological skills self-fulfilling prophecy because forecasters who lose those skills increasingly will be incapable of adding any value to the guidance. creates an argument for decreasing the staffing further. 34 Charles Doswell III

35 If automation of meteorology continues; this will lead to a decrease in the quality of operational meteorological practice, even as we develop new and exciting data sets by implementing new technologies. net result for the public will be forecasts that do not fulfill the potential inherent in what the technology offers 35 Charles Doswell III

36 36 Real-time Mesoscale is an option

37 37 Refining forecasts and measuring events at the CA level.

38 38 3- Days Lead Time Convection allowing guidance

39 39 Guidance 3-days. Public Bulletin Several Hours. Success?

40 Size Ontario ~ 1 million sqkm Texas ~ 0.7 million sqkm Ontario Weather Offices = 2 OSPC Downsview AFFES Sault Ste. Marie NWS Offices in Texas = 12 Canada and USA both about 10 million sqkm NWS Offices 5 MSC regional offices

41 41 Centralizing brick and mortar makes sense. Bringing teams together makes sense. Increased spending to deal with extreme wx makes sense Automating and reducing meteorologists makes no sense.

4hr lead time exact location of 150mm in your watershed?

42 What is possible in YOUR operational space if: Your Long Range Weather Forecast is More Accurate? Detailed weather forecasts evolve outside office hours? 4hr lead time exact location of 150mm in your watershed? Private Weather $ervices can do better than status quo? A meteorologist knocks on your door looking for a job? 42

43 2018 Fall (Winter) Outlook & Extreme Rainfall Events Please Contact Me

The Pennsylvania Observer

The Pennsylvania Observer April 2, 2009 March 2009 Pennsylvania Weather Recap Prepared by Curt Harpster For the month of March the saying, In like a lion and out like a lamb really fit the pattern quite