2011 Summer Operating Expected Conditions. Bulk Power Operations Power Coordination Center
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1 2011 Summer Operating Expected Conditions Bulk Power Operations Power Coordination Center
2 TOPICS 2010 Review 2011 SOCO Balancing Authority (BA) Area Summer Weather Forecast Peak Demand Forecast Transmission Overview Summer Preparations The information contained in this presentation has been gathered from many sources to provide a general overview of expected summer operating conditions. While the data contained is believed to be accurate, Southern Companies assume no responsibility for its accuracy or any use by other parties.
3 Review: Conditions we saw in 2010 Hotter than expected temperatures past summer especially the lows Record 73 days > 90 F 65% of normal rainfall through July, August turned wet but system averages were still low The frequency of higher loads recover in days 73 days
4 Instantaneous 45,310 MW Integrated 45,141 MW SOCO Territorial 38,520 MW (w/o. OPC,MEAG,Dalton) SBA All-Time Peak on 8/22/07 48,008 MW SBA All-Time Winter Peak on 1/11/10 43,874 MW
5 Demand (MW) Historical Peak Trending 53,000 Instantaneous Peak 48,000 43,000 39,814 40,598 40,887 40,196 42,266 44,167 44,487 48,008 46,102 42,846 45,310 38,000 35,415 37,359 38,296 33,000 28,000 23,000 18, /28 6/24 8/12 8/17 7/12 7/18 8/26 7/14 7/26 8/7 8/22 8/ 6 6/24 7/26
6 2010 Review: Peak Day 2010 SBA Peak Day Data (includes Dalton Utilities, MEAG, GTC,SOCO) ENTERGY Interchange 348 TVA Interchange ,310 MW 13:49 VACAR Interchange Duke -650 SCEG 373 SCPSA 61 SBA Load (Inst.) Net Interchange Other (Dynamic Schedules, Freq. Bias, etc) SBA Net Peak 45,310 MW 1,406 MW 801 MW 49,124 MW FLORIDA Interchange 3447
7 2010 Review: Peak Day Resource Status Summary Generation MW Southern Generation CT s Off-line 3757 Other Generation Owners in SBA Off-line 6417 Calls for Interruptible Loads were made in Summer 2010 Economic price points met for APC. - APC Residential Centsable Switch/Smart Power Program - 7 MW - APC Industrial Critical Peak Pricing Program (CPP) - 39 MW
8 2010 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 2010 Forecast: A very active season, w/5 intense hurricanes. (Sept/Oct) 2010 Review : 19 Tropical Storms, 12 Hurricanes, 5 Intense Hurricanes
9 2011 SOCO BALANCING AUTHORITY (BA) AREA SUMMER CLIMATE FORECAST
10 2011 Soil Moisture Outlook Southeast soil moisture forecast Starting the Summer in drought conditions. 3 5in south/southeast Georgia. By end of June Alabama dry soils have eased. The south/southeast Georgia drought remains intact. Dry soil areas most susceptible to extreme heat. By end of August Georgia drought has dissipated. Likely catalyst is rainfall from tropical cyclone during mid-summer. Late season heat suppression in Southeast.
11 Climate Parameter: System Precipitation Despite current dryness a wet pattern is forecast Southern Company System Summer 2011 Outlook
12 Climate Parameters System Temperature Warm May/June, cooler July Southern Company System Summer 2011 Outlook
13 2011 Summer Forecast Summary Slightly warmer than normal summer, but not as warm as last year s record hot summer. Hottest temperatures compared to normal will be MAY/JUN, near normal JUL and warm/humid AUG/SEP. Drought worsens in Southern AL and GA through early summer, may be gone by late summer (tropical cyclone rainfall).
14 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Season 3 Major Indicators: 1. El Nino Southern Oscillation No Mid-Atlantic Jet Stream 2. (+) Tropical N. Atlantic Index Water Surface Temp. 3. Lack of (-) N. Atlantic Oscillation No Mid-Atlantic Trade Winds Late Summer ENSO La Nina Neutral NAO + TNA index
15 CIC 2011 Tropical Cyclones
16 Gulf of Mexico is trending warmer Enhances tropical cyclone intensity for systems navigating the Gulf this season. Current Gulf of Mexico SSTA (left) and 30-day trends (right).
17 Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2011 Tropical Storm forecast total is slightly more active than long term normal. Conditions favor hurricanes rolling into the Gulf of Mexico. Southern Company will be affected either directly or indirectly with heavy rain/flooding the primary issue. Primary threat time is July thru September
18 2011 Summer Weather Forecast Highlights Summer 2011 Forecast Slightly warmer than normal start to season, excessive heat not indicated. Drier early summer for South (esp. S.E. Georgia) expected, trending wet midsummer. August and September are wet and humid; still warmer than normal. Tropical Cyclones 2011 Forecast is slightly more active than long term normal. 13 tropical cyclones; 7 hurricanes; 4 intense hurricanes. Primary tracks favor hurricanes rolling into the Gulf of Mexico. Primary threat time is July-Sept.
19 2011 SBA Peak Demand Forecast The Projected 2011 Summer Peak Demand for the Southern Balancing Authority Area Is: : 45,521 MW To occur on : Based On The Current Summer 2011 Weather Forecast & 95 0 F
20 2011 Total Transfer Capability (TTC) / ATC Imports (Southern Company Ownership Share. Posted values as of ) ENTERGY June: 2037 / 1280 July: 2622 / 1965 August: 2539 / 1882 TVA June: 2471 / 1332 July: 2622 / 1710 August: 2874 / 1647 Southern Company VACAR June: 1169 / 532 July: 1108 / 494 August: 1093 / 484 FLORIDA June: 910 / 510 July: 540 / 285 August: 620 / 335 (units in MW)
21 2011 Notable Transmission Additions Holt TS Tuscaloosa TS 230 kv Line Continued Improvements Villa Rica 500/230 kv auto lowside reactors Construct new 230/115 kv substation at Carriere SW and complete 230 kv line from Kiln to Carriere SW and convert Kiln to 230 kv ring bus Buzzard Roost 230 kv network and Factory Shoals 230/115 kv Arkwright Gordon 115 kv reconductor Upgrade Hillabee No. Opelika and Hillabee Danway 230 kv lines
22 2011 Summer Preparations Interruptible Service Summit Typically held in May Energy Alert Simulation Exercise PCC Comm. tests during capacity shortage scen. June 8 th. Hurricane Conference Call/Drill using Alertfind Ops/Fleet preparations OPCO Critical Maintenance
23 Summary of 2011 Summer Preparations The Summer is always an active season. Dry/Warm Summer with a healthy tropical cyclone season for Projected 2011 SBA Peak 45,521 MW In July? Significant Reserves should be available at peak. Interfaces will be utilized. Local purchases expected to supplement designated resources. Calls For Interruptible Customers not expected. System Operators will be prepared. Fuel volatility on dispatch patterns. Severe weather Operators monitor the system continuously and are prepared to respond with appropriate operating procedures.
24 QUESTIONS???
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