Mul$ model ensemble forecasts in South Africa. Willem A. Landman Cobus Olivier Asmerom Beraki

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Mul$ model ensemble forecasts in South Africa. Willem A. Landman Cobus Olivier Asmerom Beraki"

Transcription

1 Mul$ model ensemble forecasts in South Africa Willem A. Landman Cobus Olivier Asmerom Beraki

2 Opera$onal Forecast Skill From CONSENSUS discussions Verifica$on work by Peggy Moatshe SON ROC analysis DJF ROC analysis 1 1 ROC areas 0.5 Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal ROC areas 0.5 Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal 0 Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions 0 Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions

3 New objective multi-model forecast Old subjective consensus forecast

4

5 Produc$on and Dissemina$on of Seasonal Forecasts in South Africa Seasonal modelling efforts at the CSIR for operational forecast production are focussed towards 1.Multi-model sea-surface temperature (SST) forecast system development. 2.The development of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) as operational seasonal forecasting system. Both the multi-model SST and the CCAM systems forecast output will be provided to SAWS for inclusion in their forecasting systems. The real-time predicted global SST fields of the CSIR will be used to force the ECHAM4.5 being run at SAWS for fulfilment of their role as Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecasting (GPC for LRF). The CSIR will stop producing multi-model SADC forecasts, and multi-model streamflow forecasts for South Africa. The multi-model-multi-institutional SADC and streamflow forecasts for South Africa will become the responsibility of SAWS, with additional partners such as UCT, JAMSTEC, IRI, UKMO, etc. also contributing to the products. The names of the contributing agencies will appear on the forecast maps. These multimodel forecasts will also be displayed on the website of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas. The institutions in South Africa currently running global models are encouraged to use the website of the Global Forecasting Centre for Southern Africa (GFCSA; to display their respective global model forecasts.

6 The multi-model seasonal rainfall and surface temperature forecasting system for SADC under development through ACCESS SA Ensemble 1 CCAM at CSIR NRE N 1 Brazil* Ensemble 2 ESM at CPTEC N 2 SA Ensemble 3 ECHAM4.5 at SAWS N 3 SA Ensemble 4 HadAM3/CAM at UCT N 4 Ensemble 5 SINTEX-F at JAMSTEC N 5 Japan SA Ensemble 6 COUPLED models VCM/UTCM at CSIR NRE Ensemble 8 N 6 CFS MOS post-processing and forecast combination Ensemble 9 GloSEA4 Ensemble 7 Two ECHAM4.5 CGCMs at IRI N 7 USA at NCEP N 8 USA at UK Met Office N 9 UK In use * IBSA Ocean Multi-model ensemble of N 1 +N 2 +N 3 +N 4 +N 5 +N 6 +N 7 +N 8 +N 9 Near future Far future

7 The multi-model sea-surface temperature forecasting system under development through ACCESS SA Ensemble 1 COUPLED models at CSIR NRE N 1 VCAM/UTCM USA Ensemble 2 CFS at NCEP N 2 Brazil* Ensemble 3 ESM at CPTEC N 3 USA Ensemble 4 Two ECHAM4.5 CGCMs at IRI N 4 Ensemble 5 SINTEX-F at JAMSTEC N 5 Japan SA Ensemble 6 Antecedent SSTs at CSIR NRE N 6 MOS post-processing and forecast combination Ensemble 7 GloSEA4 UK at UK Met Office N 7 * IBSA Ocean Multi-model ensemble of N 1 +N 2 +N 3 +N 4 +N 5 +N 6 +N 7 In use Near future Far future

8 Seasonal forecast examples: Issued Nov 2010

9

10

11

12 SADC forecast issued in August 2011 Logo s of current contribu$ng agencies

13 In summary The change from subjecjve mulj model forecasts to objecjve mulj model combinajon and verificajon is complete SADC Global SST, and for key ocean areas such as NINO3.4 The mulj model forecasts for SADC has become the responsibility of SAWS Local and internajonal centres contribute

South African Weather Service SWIOCOF-5 Pre-Forum. Seasonal Forecast, Water Resources and Expected Outcomes

South African Weather Service SWIOCOF-5 Pre-Forum. Seasonal Forecast, Water Resources and Expected Outcomes South African Weather Service SWIOCOF-5 Pre-Forum Seasonal Forecast, Water Resources and Expected Outcomes Marc de Vos, September 2016 South Africa: Context BCRE, 2016, adapted from Boebel et al., 2003

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019

Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Seasonal Climate Watch September 2018 to January 2019 Date issued: Aug 31, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still in a neutral phase and is still expected to rise towards an

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch July to November 2018 Date issued: Jun 25, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now in a neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño phase through

More information

presented by: Latest update: 11 January 2018

presented by: Latest update: 11 January 2018 Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest update: 11 January 2018 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered

More information

Seasonal forecasts presented by:

Seasonal forecasts presented by: Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest Update: 10 November 2018 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered

More information

Seasonal forecasts presented by:

Seasonal forecasts presented by: Seasonal forecasts presented by: Latest Update: 9 February 2019 The seasonal forecasts presented here by Seasonal Forecast Worx are based on forecast output of the coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch June to October 2018 Date issued: May 28, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has now moved into the neutral phase and is expected to rise towards an El Niño

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018

Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Seasonal Climate Watch April to August 2018 Date issued: Mar 23, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to weaken from a moderate La Niña phase to a neutral phase through

More information

Operational Practices in South African Weather Service (SAWS)

Operational Practices in South African Weather Service (SAWS) Operational Practices in South African Weather Service (SAWS) Abiodun Adeola, Hannes Rautenbach, Cobus Olivier 2018/06/12 1 Overview Seasonal Forecasting System at SAWS How to Interpret Seasonal Forecasts

More information

SATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Its Application in the Southern African Region

SATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Its Application in the Southern African Region SATREPS Symposium on Climate Prediction and Its Application in the Southern African Region Date: October 20-21, 2011 Venue: The University of Tokyo (Koshiba Hall) October 20 Registration: 9:00-9:30 Opening

More information

Creating a WeatherSMART nation: SAWS drought related research, services and products

Creating a WeatherSMART nation: SAWS drought related research, services and products Creating a WeatherSMART nation: SAWS drought related research, services and products Drought Dialogue 23-24 June 2016 Western Cape Government Hannes Rautenbach South African Weather Service SAWS mandate

More information

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office

GPC Exeter forecast for winter Crown copyright Met Office GPC Exeter forecast for winter 2015-2016 Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) ensemble prediction system the source for Met Office monthly and seasonal forecasts uses a coupled model (atmosphere

More information

Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting)

Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting) Topic 3.2: Tropical Cyclone Variability on Seasonal Time Scales (Observations and Forecasting) Phil Klotzbach 7 th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones November 18, 2010 Working Group: Maritza Ballester

More information

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12)

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Twelfth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-12) Pune, India, 19-20 April 2018 Consensus Statement Summary Normal rainfall is most likely during the 2018 southwest monsoon season (June

More information

Sixth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-6)

Sixth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-6) Sixth Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-6) Consensus Bulletin for June-July-August 2016 Season Introduction The Sixth ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-6) was organised by the Philippine

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for December 2017 May 2018 BUSAN, 24 November 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2017 to May 2018 (DJFMAM) from the

More information

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season

More information

Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune

Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Long Range Forecasts of 2015 SW and NE Monsoons and its Verification D. S. Pai Climate Division, IMD, Pune Other Contributors: Soma Sen Roy, O. P. Sreejith, Kailas, Madhuri, Pallavi, Mahendra and Jasmine

More information

ENSO-DRIVEN PREDICTABILITY OF TROPICAL DRY AUTUMNS USING THE SEASONAL ENSEMBLES MULTIMODEL

ENSO-DRIVEN PREDICTABILITY OF TROPICAL DRY AUTUMNS USING THE SEASONAL ENSEMBLES MULTIMODEL 1 ENSO-DRIVEN PREDICTABILITY OF TROPICAL DRY AUTUMNS USING THE SEASONAL ENSEMBLES MULTIMODEL Based on the manuscript ENSO-Driven Skill for precipitation from the ENSEMBLES Seasonal Multimodel Forecasts,

More information

Verification at JMA on Ensemble Prediction

Verification at JMA on Ensemble Prediction Verification at JMA on Ensemble Prediction - Part Ⅱ : Seasonal prediction - Yukiko Naruse, Hitoshi Sato Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency 05/11/08 05/11/08 Training seminar on Forecasting

More information

March Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions

March Regional Climate Modeling in Seasonal Climate Prediction: Advances and Future Directions 1934-2 Fourth ICTP Workshop on the Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models: Applying RCMs to Developing Nations in Support of Climate Change Assessment and Extended-Range Prediction 3-14 March 2008 Regional

More information

Seasonal Outlook for Summer Season (12/05/ MJJ)

Seasonal Outlook for Summer Season (12/05/ MJJ) Seasonal Outlook for Summer Season (12/05/2010 - MJJ) Ι. SEASONAL FORECASTS for MAY JUNE JULY FROM GLOBAL CIRCULATION MODELS... 2 I.1. Oceanic Forecast... 2 I.1.a Sea Surface Temperature (SST)... 2 I.1.b

More information

Work on on Seasonal Forecasting at at INM. Dynamical Downscaling of of System 3 And of of ENSEMBLE Global Integrations.

Work on on Seasonal Forecasting at at INM. Dynamical Downscaling of of System 3 And of of ENSEMBLE Global Integrations. Work on on Seasonal Forecasting at at INM. Dynamical Downscaling of of System 3 And of of ENSEMBLE Global Integrations. 1 B. B. Orfila, Orfila, E. E. Diez Diez and and F. F. Franco Franco ÍNDEX Introduction

More information

The Idea behind DEMETER

The Idea behind DEMETER Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Tim Palmer Renate Hagedorn Francisco Doblas-Reyes The Idea behind DEMETER Demand for reliable seasonal forecasts

More information

Winter Forecast for GPC Tokyo. Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Winter Forecast for GPC Tokyo. Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Winter Forecast for 2013 2014 GPC Tokyo Shotaro TANAKA Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) NEACOF 5, October 29 November 1, 2013 1 Outline 1. Numerical prediction 2. Interannual

More information

Seamless weather and climate for security planning

Seamless weather and climate for security planning Seamless weather and climate for security planning Kirsty Lewis, Principal Climate Change Consultant, Met Office Hadley Centre 28 June 2010 Global Climate Models Mitigation timescale changes could be avoided

More information

Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia

Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia Seasonal Predictions for South Caucasus and Armenia Anahit Hovsepyan Zagreb, 11-12 June 2008 SEASONAL PREDICTIONS for the South Caucasus There is a notable increase of interest of population and governing

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for July December 2017 BUSAN, 26 June 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for July December 2017 (JASOND) at the APEC Climate Center

More information

The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4)

The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4) The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4) Franco Molteni, Tim Stockdale, Magdalena Balmaseda, Roberto Buizza, Laura Ferranti, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen, Tim Palmer, Frederic Vitart Met.

More information

Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX

Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX Regional climate modelling using CCAM: simulations for CORDEX John McGregor, Jack Katzfey, Kim Nguyen and Marcus Thatcher CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Aspendale, Melbourne Pune 16 October 2012

More information

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center

Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting for Africa Wassila Mamadou Thiaw Climate Prediction Center NOAA Forecast Con/nuum e.g. Disaster management planning and response e.g. Crop Selec6on, Water management

More information

MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS

MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS Characteristics of the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast systems operational and under development at ECMWF, JMA, UKMO, Météo France, NCEP, MSC, BMRC, KMA,CMA, CPTEC, SAWS and Hydrometeorological Centre

More information

Time mean temperature increments from ocean data assimilation systems

Time mean temperature increments from ocean data assimilation systems Time mean temperature increments from ocean data assimilation systems Mike Bell, Matt Martin, Drew Peterson (Met Office), Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF), Maria Valdivieso (University of Reading) April 2016

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 BUSAN, 24 July 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August 2015 January 2016 (ASONDJ) at the APEC Climate

More information

Climate Outlook for March August 2017

Climate Outlook for March August 2017 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located

More information

SECOND GENERATION SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAMME

SECOND GENERATION SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROGRAMME Page 1/5 CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African

More information

Extended-range/Monthly Predictions. WGSIP, Trieste

Extended-range/Monthly Predictions. WGSIP, Trieste Extended-range/Monthly Predictions WGSIP, Trieste 1 Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: Met Office, Exeter (1 to 3 December 2010) Purpose Review of the current capabilities in sub seasonal to seasonal

More information

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response

2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Cat Response 2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2013 - RMS Cat Response Season Outlook At the start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, seasonal forecasts

More information

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r

S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r S e a s o n a l F o r e c a s t i n g f o r t h e E u r o p e a n e n e r g y s e c t o r C3S European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) Webinar 18 th Oct 2017 Philip Bett, Met Office Hadley Centre S e a s

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 17, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today Feature of the month: More climate models! Climate Forecast Basics Climate System Review

More information

EARLY WARNING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA:

EARLY WARNING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: EARLY WARNING IN SOUTHERN AFRICA: Enhancing the Meteorological Early Warning System Eugene Poolman South African Weather Service OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION Impact of Climate Change Meteorological Early Warning

More information

Climate Outlook for March August 2018

Climate Outlook for March August 2018 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2018 BUSAN, 26 February 2018 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2018 (MAMJJA) from the APEC Climate Center (APCC),

More information

Summary. peninsula. likely over. parts of. Asia has. have now. season. There is. season, s that the. declining. El Niño. affect the. monsoon.

Summary. peninsula. likely over. parts of. Asia has. have now. season. There is. season, s that the. declining. El Niño. affect the. monsoon. Eighth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) Colombo, Sri Lanka, 25-26 April 2016 Consensus Statement Summary Above-normal rainfalll is likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season

More information

(Towards) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extendedrange flood prediction in Australia

(Towards) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extendedrange flood prediction in Australia (Towards) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) extreme rainfall forecasts for extendedrange flood prediction in Australia Christopher J. White 1, Stewart W. Franks 1 and Darryn McEvoy 2 1 School of Engineering

More information

WMO LC-LRFMME and Seasonal Climate Outlook for ONDJFM 2015/16

WMO LC-LRFMME and Seasonal Climate Outlook for ONDJFM 2015/16 WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble WMO LC-LRFMME and Seasonal Climate Outlook for ONDJFM 2015/16 Daeun Jeong and WMO LC-LRFMME team The Winter South Asian Climate Outlook Forum

More information

July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017

July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017 July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2017 Issued: 4 th July 2017 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast

More information

El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016

El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 Linda Hirons, Nicolas Klingaman This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the

More information

Current status and plans for developing sea ice forecast services and products for the WMO Arctic Regional Climate Centre Sea Ice Outlook

Current status and plans for developing sea ice forecast services and products for the WMO Arctic Regional Climate Centre Sea Ice Outlook Current status and plans for developing sea ice forecast services and products for the WMO Arctic Regional Climate Centre 2018 Sea Ice Outlook 13 WMO Global Producing Centres providing seasonal forecasts

More information

An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4. in the context of EUROSIP

An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4. in the context of EUROSIP An extended re-forecast set for ECMWF system 4 in the context of EUROSIP Tim Stockdale Acknowledgements: Magdalena Balmaseda, Susanna Corti, Laura Ferranti, Kristian Mogensen, Franco Molteni, Frederic

More information

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8)

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) Eighth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) Colombo, Sri Lanka, 25-26 April 2016 Consensus Statement Summary Above-normal rainfall is most likely during the 2016 southwest monsoon season

More information

Long Range Forecast Update for 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

Long Range Forecast Update for 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Earth System Science Organization (ESSO) Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) India Meteorological Department PRESS RELEASE New Delhi, 9 June 2014 Long Update for 2014 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall HIGHLIGHTS

More information

RCOF Review [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report

RCOF Review [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report RCOF Review 2017 [Regional Climate Outlook Forum for the Gulf of Guinea region of Africa - PRESAGG] Status Report Specific Climate features of concerned region This region typically covers the area below

More information

Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die einde van die eeu

Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die einde van die eeu Klimaatsverandering oor Suid-Afrika van die volgende paar dekades tot die einde van die eeu Francois Engelbrecht1 and Christen Engelbrecht2 1.WNNR Natuurlike Hulpbronne en die Omgewing 2.Landbou Navorsingsraad

More information

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015

Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for May - October 2015 BUSAN, 23 April 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for May - October 2015 (MJJASO) at the APEC Climate Center

More information

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, August 2014

IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, August 2014 IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, 1. HIGHLIGHTS/ ACTUALITES Rainfall activities were mainly observed over the central parts of the northern sector and western parts of equatorial

More information

Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016

Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016 BUSAN, 25 November 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2015 to May 2016 (DJFMAM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC),

More information

Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections

Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Seasonal to decadal climate prediction: filling the gap between weather forecasts and climate projections Doug Smith Walter Orr Roberts memorial lecture, 9 th June 2015 Contents Motivation Practical issues

More information

SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa

SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa Willem A Landman 1,2 *, Asmerom Beraki 3, David DeWitt 4 and Daleen Lötter 1 1

More information

July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018

July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 July Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 5 th July 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),

More information

Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018

Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Pre-Season Forecast for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2018 Issued: 30 th May 2018 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),

More information

Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems

Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Probabilistic predictions of monsoon rainfall with the ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems Franco Molteni, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Laura Ferranti, Magdalena Balmaseda European Centre for

More information

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Issued: May 10, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met

More information

IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications

IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications WCRP Workshop on Seasonal Prediction 4-7 June 2007, Barcelona, Spain IAP Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System and its applications Zhaohui LIN Zhou Guangqing Chen Hong Qin Zhengkun Zeng Qingcun Institute

More information

Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York

Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York Outlook 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Kevin Lipton, Ingrid Amberger National Weather Service Albany, New York Summary 2007 Hurricane Season Two hurricanes made landfall in the Atlantic Basin at category-5

More information

April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016

April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 April Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th April 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK

More information

Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018

Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018 The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018 BUSAN, 25 September 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for October 2017 to March 2018 (ONDJFM) from the APEC Climate Center

More information

WMO Climate Information Services System

WMO Climate Information Services System World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO Climate Information Services System Peer Hechler WMO WMO www.wmo.int Aim of talk To elaborate on some relevant global

More information

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE World Meteorological Organization EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE Current Situation and Outlook A mature and strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The majority of international climate outlook

More information

El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis

El Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis El Niño /26: Impact Analysis March 26 Dr Linda Hirons, Dr Nicholas Klingaman This work was funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) 2 Table of Contents. Introduction 4. Update of current

More information

A Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of US Landfalling TC Activity

A Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of US Landfalling TC Activity A Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecast of US Landfalling TC Activity Johnny Chan and Samson K S Chiu Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre City University of Hong Kong Research sponsored

More information

June Current Situation and Outlook

June Current Situation and Outlook June 2018 Current Situation and Outlook Sea surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific as well as most of the overlying atmospheric indicators suggest that ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing;

More information

SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGIONAL SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROCESS

SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGIONAL SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROCESS SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGIONAL SEASONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK PROCESS 5 TH SWIOCOF CORAL STRAND HOTEL, MAHE, SEYCHELLES 19 23 SEP 2016 Bradwell J GARANGANGA, Et Al SADC CSC bgaranganga@sadc.int Format of Presentation

More information

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE July 2016 World Meteorological Organization EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE Current Situation and Outlook The strong 2015-16 El Niño ended in May 2016. Since then, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators

More information

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE

EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE 13 May 2016 World Meteorological Organization EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE Current Situation and Outlook The previously strong 2015-16 El Niño is now weakening rapidly. However it is still likely to influence

More information

Model error and seasonal forecasting

Model error and seasonal forecasting Model error and seasonal forecasting Antje Weisheimer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF, Reading, UK with thanks to Paco Doblas-Reyes and Tim Palmer Model error and model uncertainty

More information

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Issued: April 10, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met

More information

4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction

4.3.2 Configuration. 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System Introduction 4.3 Ensemble Prediction System 4.3.1 Introduction JMA launched its operational ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) for one-month forecasting, one-week forecasting, and seasonal forecasting in March of 1996,

More information

INVESTIGATING THE SIMULATIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL and ENERGY CYCLES OF IPCC GCMS OVER THE CONGO AND UPPER BLUE NILE BASINS

INVESTIGATING THE SIMULATIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL and ENERGY CYCLES OF IPCC GCMS OVER THE CONGO AND UPPER BLUE NILE BASINS INVESTIGATING THE SIMULATIONS OF HYDROLOGICAL and ENERGY CYCLES OF IPCC GCMS OVER THE CONGO AND UPPER BLUE NILE BASINS Mohamed Siam, and Elfatih A. B. Eltahir. Civil & Environmental Engineering Department,

More information

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast AnuMS 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast : June 11, 2018 by Dale C. S. Destin (follow @anumetservice) Director (Ag), Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service (ABMS) The *AnuMS (Antigua Met Service)

More information

Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the DEMETER Multi-Model System

Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the DEMETER Multi-Model System Tropical Intra-Seasonal Oscillations in the DEMETER Multi-Model System Francisco Doblas-Reyes Renate Hagedorn Tim Palmer European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Outline Introduction

More information

IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF)

IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF) IASCLiP FORECAST FORUM (IFF) August-September-October 2012 Disclaimer: The forecast and the discussions in this forum in no way reflect the opinion of the contributing personnel s institutions and organizations.

More information

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016

Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start

More information

Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP

Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Predictions Operational Monsoon Monitoring at NCEP Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction

More information

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response

PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK. June RMS Event Response PRMS WHITE PAPER 2014 NORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK June 2014 - RMS Event Response 2014 SEASON OUTLOOK The 2013 North Atlantic hurricane season saw the fewest hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin

More information

TCC Recent Development and Activity

TCC Recent Development and Activity 11 May 2015, FOCRAII TCC Recent Development and Activity Yasushi MOCHIZUKI Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency TCC Recent Development and Activity / Tokyo Climate Center Tokyo Climate Center

More information

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy

ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics

More information

Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts. Peggy Seanokeng Moatshe DISSERTATION MASTER OF SCIENCE.

Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts. Peggy Seanokeng Moatshe DISSERTATION MASTER OF SCIENCE. Verification of South African Weather Service operational seasonal forecasts by Peggy Seanokeng Moatshe DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree MASTER OF SCIENCE

More information

THEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities

THEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African Institution

More information

APCC/CliPAS. model ensemble seasonal prediction. Kang Seoul National University

APCC/CliPAS. model ensemble seasonal prediction. Kang Seoul National University APCC/CliPAS CliPAS multi-model model ensemble seasonal prediction In-Sik Kang Seoul National University APEC Climate Center - APCC APCC Multi-Model Ensemble System APCC Multi-Model Prediction APEC Climate

More information

THEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities

THEME: Seasonal forecast: Climate Service for better management of risks and opportunities CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA et l OMM African Institution

More information

August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015

August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 August Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2015 Issued: 5 th August 2015 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK

More information

Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers. World Meteorological Organization. J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General

Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers. World Meteorological Organization. J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General WMO World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Challenges - Partnering with Service Providers J. Lengoasa WMO Deputy Secretary-General jlengoasa@wmo.int http://www.wmo.int/pages/gfcs/gfcs_en.html

More information

Activities of the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP)

Activities of the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) Activities of the World Climate Research Programme Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) Bill Merryfield and Doug Smith WGSIP co-chairs WMO OCP-2, 30 May-1 June 2018, Barcelona

More information

July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016

July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 July Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2016 Issued: 5 th July 2016 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London), UK Forecast

More information

PRECIS: Facilitating capacity building and climate vulnerability studies and applications in Africa

PRECIS: Facilitating capacity building and climate vulnerability studies and applications in Africa PRECIS: Facilitating capacity building and climate vulnerability studies and applications in Africa Richard Jones Presentation to Met Africa group, Reading University 15.10.2007 Crown copyright Page 1

More information

April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019

April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019 April Forecast Update for North Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2019 Issued: 5 th April 2019 by Professor Mark Saunders and Dr Adam Lea Dept. of Space and Climate Physics, UCL (University College London),

More information

statistical methods for tailoring seasonal climate forecasts Andrew W. Robertson, IRI

statistical methods for tailoring seasonal climate forecasts Andrew W. Robertson, IRI statistical methods for tailoring seasonal climate forecasts Andrew W. Robertson, IRI tailored seasonal forecasts why do we make probabilistic forecasts? to reduce our uncertainty about the (unknown) future

More information

JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018

JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 JMA s Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Climate for Summer 2018 Atsushi Minami Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Contents Outline of JMA s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System

More information

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting

The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast

More information

An evaluation of the skill of ENSO forecasts during

An evaluation of the skill of ENSO forecasts during An evaluation of the skill of ENSO forecasts during 22 29 Tony Barnston and Mike Tippett IRI Lead: 2 4 6 8 9 Nino.4 anomaly forecasts at 4 leads All Models 22 4 6 8 9 Nino.4 anomaly Dynamical 22 4 6 8

More information