Mul$ model ensemble forecasts in South Africa. Willem A. Landman Cobus Olivier Asmerom Beraki
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1 Mul$ model ensemble forecasts in South Africa Willem A. Landman Cobus Olivier Asmerom Beraki
2 Opera$onal Forecast Skill From CONSENSUS discussions Verifica$on work by Peggy Moatshe SON ROC analysis DJF ROC analysis 1 1 ROC areas 0.5 Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal ROC areas 0.5 Below-Normal Near-Normal Above-Normal 0 Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions 0 Reg1 Reg2 Reg3 Reg4 Reg5 Reg6 Reg7 Reg8 Regions
3 New objective multi-model forecast Old subjective consensus forecast
4
5 Produc$on and Dissemina$on of Seasonal Forecasts in South Africa Seasonal modelling efforts at the CSIR for operational forecast production are focussed towards 1.Multi-model sea-surface temperature (SST) forecast system development. 2.The development of the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) as operational seasonal forecasting system. Both the multi-model SST and the CCAM systems forecast output will be provided to SAWS for inclusion in their forecasting systems. The real-time predicted global SST fields of the CSIR will be used to force the ECHAM4.5 being run at SAWS for fulfilment of their role as Global Producing Centre for Long-Range Forecasting (GPC for LRF). The CSIR will stop producing multi-model SADC forecasts, and multi-model streamflow forecasts for South Africa. The multi-model-multi-institutional SADC and streamflow forecasts for South Africa will become the responsibility of SAWS, with additional partners such as UCT, JAMSTEC, IRI, UKMO, etc. also contributing to the products. The names of the contributing agencies will appear on the forecast maps. These multimodel forecasts will also be displayed on the website of the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas. The institutions in South Africa currently running global models are encouraged to use the website of the Global Forecasting Centre for Southern Africa (GFCSA; to display their respective global model forecasts.
6 The multi-model seasonal rainfall and surface temperature forecasting system for SADC under development through ACCESS SA Ensemble 1 CCAM at CSIR NRE N 1 Brazil* Ensemble 2 ESM at CPTEC N 2 SA Ensemble 3 ECHAM4.5 at SAWS N 3 SA Ensemble 4 HadAM3/CAM at UCT N 4 Ensemble 5 SINTEX-F at JAMSTEC N 5 Japan SA Ensemble 6 COUPLED models VCM/UTCM at CSIR NRE Ensemble 8 N 6 CFS MOS post-processing and forecast combination Ensemble 9 GloSEA4 Ensemble 7 Two ECHAM4.5 CGCMs at IRI N 7 USA at NCEP N 8 USA at UK Met Office N 9 UK In use * IBSA Ocean Multi-model ensemble of N 1 +N 2 +N 3 +N 4 +N 5 +N 6 +N 7 +N 8 +N 9 Near future Far future
7 The multi-model sea-surface temperature forecasting system under development through ACCESS SA Ensemble 1 COUPLED models at CSIR NRE N 1 VCAM/UTCM USA Ensemble 2 CFS at NCEP N 2 Brazil* Ensemble 3 ESM at CPTEC N 3 USA Ensemble 4 Two ECHAM4.5 CGCMs at IRI N 4 Ensemble 5 SINTEX-F at JAMSTEC N 5 Japan SA Ensemble 6 Antecedent SSTs at CSIR NRE N 6 MOS post-processing and forecast combination Ensemble 7 GloSEA4 UK at UK Met Office N 7 * IBSA Ocean Multi-model ensemble of N 1 +N 2 +N 3 +N 4 +N 5 +N 6 +N 7 In use Near future Far future
8 Seasonal forecast examples: Issued Nov 2010
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12 SADC forecast issued in August 2011 Logo s of current contribu$ng agencies
13 In summary The change from subjecjve mulj model forecasts to objecjve mulj model combinajon and verificajon is complete SADC Global SST, and for key ocean areas such as NINO3.4 The mulj model forecasts for SADC has become the responsibility of SAWS Local and internajonal centres contribute
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