NEO Program 2015 for SBAG #12. Lindley Johnson Near Earth Object Observations Program Executive NASA HQ

Transcription

1 NEO Program 2015 for SBAG #12 Lindley Johnson Near Earth Object Observations Program Executive NASA HQ January 6, 2015

2 NEO Observations Program US component to International Spaceguard Survey effort Has provided 98% of new detections of NEOs since 1998 Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May 1998 to find at least 90% of 1 km and larger NEOs Averaged ~$4M/year Research funding That goal reached by end of 2010 NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction: plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020]. Updated Program Objective: Discover > 90% of NEOs larger than 140 meters in size as soon as possible In FY2012 budget increased to $20.5 M/year With FY2014 budget now at $40 M/year 2

3 NASA s NEO Search Program (Current Systems) Minor Planet Center (MPC) IAU sanctioned Int l observation database Initial orbit determination NEO Program JPL Program coordination Precision orbit determination Automated SENTRY LINEAR/SST Catalina Sky Survey NEO-WISE JPL Sun-synch LEO Operations Jan 2010 Feb 2011, 135 NEAs found Reactivated Sep 2013 Began ops in Dec 35 NEAs 3 comets Pan-STARRS MIT/LL Soccoro, NM UofAZ Arizona & Australia Uof HI Haleakula, Maui 3

4 Spaceguard Survey Catalog Program Current Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process Survey, Detect, & Report Routine Processing Publish Results Survey Systems Correlate, Determine Rough Orbit No No Minor Planet Center JPL NEO Office* * In parallel with NEODyS Possible New PHO? Yes Potential Impact? Yes Resolve Result Differences Publish Results No Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations Observations and Update Orbit Radar Yes Iterate Impact Still Possible? Publish/ Update Results Alerts to NASA HQ MPC - PHO of interest MPC - possible close approach JPL - reports potential for impact JPL - publishes probability of impact 4

5 Known Near Earth Asteroid Population As of 01/01/15 12,043 Includes 95 comets 1533 PHAs Start of NASA NEO Program PHAs 5

6 Discoveries per Year Annual Near Earth Asteroid Discoveries NEO Discovery Stats # <1km # >1km

7 Population N(<H) (powers of 10) Average Impact Interval (yrs) Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010) Hiroshima Protected by Earth s Atmosphere Tunguska Impact Energy, MT Brown et al Constant power law Discovered to 7/21/ Absolute Magnitude, H Diameter, Km K-T Impactor Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Impact Interval, years

8 Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status 8

9 Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status 9

10 Population N(<H) (powers of 10) Average Impact Interval (yrs) Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (A. L. Harris 2010) Hiroshima ~250,000 ~20,000 ~ 1,000 Protected by Earth s Atmosphere Tunguska 50 m Impact Energy, MT 140 m Brown et al Constant power law Discovered to 7/21/ km Absolute Magnitude, H Diameter, Km K-T Impactor Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity Impact Interval, years

11 Near Earth Asteroid Survey Status 11

12 Physical Characterization of NEAs Radar is essential for obtaining an accurate estimate of size and shape to within ~2 m, as well as rotation state. Ground-based and space-based IR measurements are important for estimating albedo and spectral class, and from these an approximate density can be inferred. Light curves are important to estimate shape and rotation state. Long-arc high-precision astrometry is important for determining the area-to-mass ratio. Mass is estimated from size and shape using an inferred or assumed density, and it should be constrained by the estimate of the area-to-mass ratio. Even so, mass may only be known to within a factor of 3 or 4. Composition can only be roughly assessed via analogy to spectral class. Assumed albedo r = 0.04 Assumed albedo r =

13 Characterization Process Initial detection, astrometry, photometry Apparent magnitude Rough orbit Absolute magnitude Phase curves Additional astrometry Light curves Radar Rough Approximation of Thermal infrared Albedo Precise Approximate Rotation, Shape Precise orbit Size Colors, Spectroscopy Spectral type Density Mass Observations Intermediate parameters Objectives Astrometry over months or years Area/Mass Ratio

14 Primary NEO Characterization Assets and Enhancements Radar (Goldstone and Arecibo) Increased time for NEO observations Streamlining Rapid Response capabilities Improve maintainability Goldstone Radar Arecibo Observatory NASA InfraRed Telescope Facility (IRTF) Increased call-up for Rapid Response Improving operability/maintainability Improve Instrumentation for Spectroscopy and Thermal Signatures Spitzer Infrared Space Telescope Orbit about Sun, ~176 million km trailing Earth In extended Warm-phase mission Characterization of Comets and Asteroids Thermal Signatures, Albedo/Sizes of NEOs Longer time needed for scheduling 14

15 2014 BR57 observed by Goldstone Radar Feb 18th Example of how ~4m-scale boulders can be seen at very high radar SNR. ~4-m scale boulders 80 m 15

16 NASA Pre-Decisional Internal Use Only Do Not Distribute 16

17 Mitigation Studies and Related Efforts Mitigation Studies NEO Observations Program mitigation effects grants NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts Program study awards Kinetic Impactor demonstration mission studies Impactor for Surface and Interior Science (ISIS) mission concept Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission concept (with ESA) Interagency Efforts Impact Effects Studies Ames Research Center with DOE National Laboratories Sandia and Lawrence Livermore Impact Emergency Response Exercises December 2008 US Air Force Interagency Deliberate Planning Exercise Natural Impact Hazard April 2013, May FEMA HQ Impact Emergency Response Table Top Exercises (TTX) Newly initiated capabilities studies with DARPA and DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) International Efforts UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Scientific and Technical Subcommittee NEO Working Group and Action Team 14 17

18 UN Office of Outer Space Affairs Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Overview for NEO Threat Response* United Nations COPUOS/OOSA Inform in case of credible threat Determine Impact time, location and severity Parent Government Delegates Potential deflection mission plans International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Observers, analysts, modelers Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) Space Agencies and Offices *

19 Second IAWN Element: Existing Worldwide Observing Network Received Data from 46 countries in

20 UN Office of Outer Space Affairs Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space Overview for NEO Threat Response United Nations COPUOS/OOSA Inform in case of credible threat Determine Impact time, location and severity Parent Government Delegates Potential deflection mission plans International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) Observers, analysts, Meetings of Steering Cmte, modelers January 13-14, MPC November 11, DPS Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) Space Agencies and Offices 2 Formulation Meetings February 6-7, ESOC June UN COPUOS

21 NEOO Project Stats 2014 Project Areas: Search 8 Projects Radar 8 Projects Infrastructure 5 Projects Characterization 13 Projects Follow-up 13 Projects Concept Studies 4 Projects Mitigation Studies 5 Projects Program Support 3 Projects Mitigation Studies, Program Support, $680,000, 2% $974,438, 2% Studies, $1,985,444, 5% Follow-up, $3,148,661, 8% Characterization, $4,042,814, 11% Infrastructure Capabilities, $5,752,861, 15% Radar Capabilities, $6,402,233, 17% ARM Studies, $60,000, 0% Education, $60,000, 0% Search Projects, $15,180,733, 40% 21

22 NEOO Project Stats 2015 Project Areas: Search 5 Projects Radar 5 Projects Data Analysis 3 Projects Characterization 13 Projects Follow-up 12 Projects Tech Development 5 Projects Studies 3 Projects Mitigation Studies 5 Projects Program Support 3 Projects Characterization Infrastructure, $5,986,239, 15% Data Processing & Analysis, $1,934,240, 5% Characterization, $3,122,855, 8% Follow-up, $3,964,076, 10% Mitigation Study, $4,968,178, 12% Program Support, $1,150,000, 3% Tech Development, $4,847,968, 12% Search, $8,728,420, 22% Study, $578,971, 1% Radar, $4,757,450, 12% 22

23 NASA OIG Report NASA s Efforts to Identify Near-Earth Objects and Mitigate Hazards AUDIT REPORT SEPTEMBER 15, 2014 Audit performed from September 2013 through August 2014 We initiated this review to examine NASA s NEO Program and assess the Agency s progress toward meeting statutory and other Program goals. Specifically, we reviewed NASA s allocation and use of resources and plans for the future of the Program. 23

24 NASA OIG Report To improve NASA s efforts to discover, characterize, and mitigate NEO threats, the OIG recommends that the Associate Administrator for the Science Mission Directorate (SMD): Recommendation 1: Develop a formal NEO Program in accordance with NASA policies that includes a strategic plan to obtain statutory and programmatic goals, integrated master schedule, and cost estimates. Management s Response: SMD concurs with this recommendation. The assets currently used, as well as additional capabilities needed, to detect, track and characterize the hazardous NEO population can best be described as a loosely coupled system of systems that are managed, designed and operated by a variety of science institutions and personnel almost all within a scientific research background and setting. These elements operate at or very near the forefront of our scientific understanding of these smallest constituents of our solar system and the engineering of the systems is likewise at the edge. We agree that the proposed approach to manage this effort in accordance with NPR , NASA Research and Technology Program and Project Management Requirements, will maximize the results and offer the potential to reduce contractual costs while providing the flexibility to maintain individually customized research approaches under over-arching strategies established at a program level. 24

25 NASA OIG Report The OIG also recommends that the Associate Administrator for SMD should direct the NEO Program Executive to: Recommendation 2: Develop and implement requirements, procedures, and internal controls to address program deficiencies. Management s Response: SMD concurs with establishing a program that follows the Agency s requirements, procedures and internal controls in exercising the Agency s fiduciary responsibilities, and firmly believes that the NEO Observations projects that are currently funded already follow NASA s standard procedures for awarding research grants and contracts, with multiple levels of review and independent internal controls in the award and funding of our research activities. Recommendation 3: Perform a full-time equivalent analysis to determine the appropriate number of staff needed to manage, oversee, and administer the Program and associated funding instruments. Management s Response: SMD concurs with this recommendation. An FTE analysis will be conducted and incorporated into plans for the program. 25

26 NASA OIG Report Recommendation 4: Develop a plan to establish formal, documented partnerships with domestic and international agencies to leverage resources and complementary technologies. Management s Response: SMD concurs with this recommendation and it will be incorporated into the NEO Program Plan. It is our view that the program is on the proper course to establish both the appropriate domestic and international partnerships. While NEO activities are very new to our potential partners, there have been considerable efforts within US Government interagency working groups, and international coordination efforts within the constructs of the UN Committee On Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) Working Group on NEOs are highly documented, all of which are worked in coordination with the NASA Office of Interagency and International Relations (OIIR). 26

27 NASA OIG Report Recommendation 5: Establish a systematic oversight process pursuant to which NASAfunded observatories are required to coordinate with each other in order to avoid duplication of effort. Management s Response: SMD concurs with the intent of this recommendation. As noted in the audit report, SMD has already taken steps to ensure project activities are coordinated, and will continue to do so in the future. Strategy for coordination of activities will be documented in the program plan. This is not the same as coordinating nightly observations of survey teams, where we believe the existing competitive environment across all of our assets is maximizing the identification of new NEOs through continuous improvement for increased sky coverage, improved detection limits, moving object algorithms and astrometric accuracy. 27