Neutrino Astronomy with IceCube at the Earth's South Pole

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1 Neutrino Astronomy with IceCube at the Earth's South Pole Naoko Kurahashi Neilson (Drexel University) Yale NPA Seminar, Jan 26th,

2 How it started... Highest energy particles observed Charged particles human-made (LHC) nuclei 109eV 1012eV 1015eV GeV TeV PeV Neutral particles 1018eV EeV γ ray 2

3 3

4 How it started... Highest energy particles observed Charged particles nuclei 109eV 1012eV 1015eV GeV TeV PeV Neutral particles human-made (LHC) γ ray 1018eV EeV neutrino! How are neutral particles created at such high energies? The same way by us? Can neutrinos be created the same way γ-rays are? What are the connections between these high energy observations? What are the most likely sources of these observed neutrinos? 4

5 High-Energy Astronomy

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7

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9 Producing γ rays Leptonic Processes Hadronic Processes P + P or P + γ creates π0 Inverse Compton - e e- π 0 creates π+/- too! Bremsstrahlung, etc Produces ν too

10 Neutrino Astronomy The Dream See deeper into sources Learn how gamma-rays are created Learn where cosmic-rays are coming from 10

11 Neutrino Astronomy The Reality Issue 1: cross section Issue 2: backgrounds Observable universe ~1028cm Galactic disk ~1023cm Earth radius 6x108cm Atmosphere thickness 1x106cm Cross section from Gandhi et al., Phys. Rev. D 58 (1998)

12 Completed in Dec Naoko Kurahashi Neilson, Drexel 2010! University 12

13 ~250 people for ~40 institutions 13

14 Two Ways to Probe Neutrino Astrophysics Diffuse Analyses Point Source Analyses Goal: Resolve each spectral component in energy Goal: Resolve sources (clusterings) in space Requirements: - Good energy proxy variable - Good purity in data over statistical power (need to understand all components) - Accurate estimate of energy proxy error range - Prior knowledge of characteristics of components helpful Requirements: - Good angular resolution - Good statistical power over purity (background is spatially uniform) - Accurate estimate of angular error range - Prior knowledge of potential source locations helpful 14

15 IceCube backgrounds are atmospheric shower components Most charged π/k decay to μ rather than e ν produced in the same interaction, but lower cross section Most common bkg: μ > νμ > νe (Southern Hemisphere) νμ > νe (Northern Hemisphere) At higher energy, π/k lifetime is longer more interact rather than decay μ, ν spectra softer than primary CR's At higher energies, charmed mesons produced Shorter lifetime, decay products are harder spectra than π/k decay prompt flux Earth IceCube 0

16 Diffuse Analysis 1 IceCube's discovery analysis in 2013 Science 342, (2013) μ Veto Could be an atmospheric muon from a CR shower νμ Most likely a neutrino μ (2 years of data) Flux assuming E-2: ~1.2 x 10-8 E-2 [/GeV/cm2/s/sr] Best fit spectral index:

17 Events with interaction vertices contained inside the IceCube detector More likely to be neutrino events μ Veto Could be an atmospheric muon or could be a muon caused by neutrinos νμ Most likely a neutrino The higher the energy, the better this works! μ

18 Tagging atmospheric neutrinos The accompanying muon trips the veto! Self-veto

19 Diffuse Analysis 1 IceCube's discovery analysis in 2013 Science 342, (2013) μ Veto Could be an atmospheric muon from a CR shower νμ Most likely a neutrino μ (2 years of data) Flux assuming E-2: ~1.2 x 10-8 E-2 [/GeV/cm2/s/sr] Best fit spectral index:

20 Diffuse Analysis 1 IceCube's discovery analysis in 2013 arxiv: μ Veto Could be an atmospheric muon from a CR shower νμ Most likely a neutrino μ (4 years of data) Flux assuming E-2: ~1.0 x 10-8 E-2 [/GeV/cm2/s/sr] Best fit spectral index:

21 Diffuse Analysis 2 Updated veto to the discovery analysis Flux Level:~2.2 (E/100GeV) [/GeV/cm2/s/sr] Spectral index: -2.5 IceCube Collaboration (2015) Phys. Rev. D. 91 * This was for data. Update to this analysis in the pipeline 21

22 Diffuse Analysis 3 A different approach: Only look below the horizon to avoid atmospheric muon background arxiv: Flux Level:~ 0.9 (E/100TeV) [/GeV/cm2/s/sr] Spectral index:

23 Diffuse Analyses Conclusion The universe emits high energy neutrinos Characterization in progress, but the whole picture is unclear for now 90% confidence interval comparison Assumptions: - one flux for whole sky - one spectral index - same flux for each flavor Some tensions imply... Break in the spectrum? - difference in energy probed imply hardening - but then no Glashow events? - break and cutoff? Spatially different flux? arxiv:

24 Two Ways to Probe Neutrino Astrophysics Diffuse Analyses Point Source Analyses Goal: Resolve each spectral component in energy Goal: Resolve sources (clusterings) in space Requirements: - Good energy proxy variable - Good purity in data over statistical power (need to understand all components) - Accurate estimate of energy proxy error range - Prior knowledge of characteristics of components helpful Requirements: - Good angular resolution - Good statistical power over purity (background is spatially uniform) - Accurate estimate of angular error range - Prior knowledge of potential source locations helpful 24

25 Through-going tracks: Collect all good quality tracks Equatorial coordinates 2008 year Old Data (40-strings detector) ~37,000 events

26 Likelihood Search for a Source - Test Statistic (TS) Calculation Maximize the likelihood L assuming a source at point x with energy spectrum E Total # of events # of events from source Varied to maximize L Probability density that event i comes from a source at position x Probability density that event i is from backgrounds expected at position x Probability density that event i comes form a source with spectrum γ Probability density that event i comes form a known background energy spectrum -γ

27

28 Point Source Analysis 1 Search for cluster: all-sky and around known sources BL Lac All-sky search FSRQ Time-integrated unbinned search of hot spots in 7 years of data (4-year version Astrophys.J. 796:109,2014) GC NI PKS PKS PKS ES W Comae Mrk 421 Mrk 501 H C66A 1ES ES S PKS PKS PKS H ES ES PKS PKS QSO PKS QSO C279 3C 273 PKS PKS C C PKS PKS Sgr A* MGRO J HESS J HESS J HESS J HESS J PWN SFR SNR Seyfert Geminga Crab Nebula MGRO J HESS J PSR B HESS J MSH HESS J HESS J HESS J Vela X HESS J Cyg OB2 IC443 Cas A TYCHO Cen A M87 3C Cyg A NGC 1275 M82 RCW 86 RX J RX J W28 ESO 139-G12 XB/mqso SS433 HESS J Cyg X-1 Cyg X-3 LSI 30 Cir X-1 GX S 5039 cluster HESS J

29 Point Source Analysis 2 Stack the sources Stacking of 862 Fermi 2LAC Blazars Quasi-diffuse search (~10% of the sky at our angular resolution) Stacking of 127 nearby bright starburst galaxies Within z < 0.03 FFIR(60 micron) > 4 Jy Fradio(1.4 GHz) > 20 mjy Waxman, TeVPA data Astrophys.J. 796:10 (,2014) IceCube Collab., arxiv: (2014) 29

30 Point Source Analyses conclusion No TeV sources in neutrinos (yet) Statistically insignificant overfluctuations come and go, but will any stick? MeV neutrinos still lead in number of sources (0 vs 2) The Sun Supernova 1987A kamiokande super-kamiokande *No direction, just timing 30

31 Putting diffuse and point source together Astrophysical Diffuse Flux All-sky source flux limit arxiv:

32 Limits in terms of % of diffuse flux Upper limit in diffuse flux notes Blazars ~ 17% 862 from Fermi 2nd AGN cat. Spectral index = -2.5 Nearby Starburst Galaxies ~ 8% 127 nearby Spectral index = -2 Galactic Sources Young SNR ~ 5% 30 with no PWN or MC Spectral index = -2 Young PWN ~ 3% 10 with no MC Spectral index = -2 Galactic Plane ~14% Fermi Diffuse γ Spatial template Spectral index = -2.5 to -2.7 GRBs ~1% 506 bursts observed Spectral index = -2 to -2.7 Astrophys.J. 796:10 (,2014), ApJ, 805, L5 (2015) 32

33 Is it time to consider... New (more correct? more exotic?) models of emission? New sources? Optical or x-ray counterparts? Dark sources? Does this require new methods? 33

34 Multi-Messenger Astronomy with Non-EM partners Ultra-high Energy Cosmic Rays Gravity Waves JCAP 1601 (2016) 01, 037 Correlation study with highest energy events from Auger and TA No correlation beyond 3.3σ LIGO gravity signal and neutrino events within +/-500s 34

35 How can we increase our chances of discovering sources sooner? Factor of 10 doesn't seem like much until you realize how old you are in 10 years vs 100 years! 35

36 IceCube's Realtime Efforts 36

37 Example: HESE A, on April

38 Historical Perspective: Gamma-ray Astronomy Diffuse signal first source catalog! 1970's NOW Fermi 5-year data SAS-2 Diffuse celestial radiation GSFC nasa.gov COS-B Discreet sources 1980's GSFC nasa.gov 38

39 Historical Perspective: X-ray Astronomy Diffuse signal first source catalog (Sun detected in x-rays 1940's) Diffuse emission and Scorpius X 's APOD 8/19/2000 ROSAT The Cosmic Century M. S. Longair xte.mit.edu Naoko Kurahashi Neilson, Drexel University 39

40 IceCube Gen2 The next generation facility for neutrino physics and astronomy at the South Pole arxiv:

41 Getting there sooner 41

42 Conclusions High-energy Neutrino Astronomy is becoming a reality Both diffuse and point source analyses are providing new information, but together they are giving us more insight We keep learning lessons, and have plans to get us to discovery sooner 42

43 Backups 43

44 More IceCube Jargon 40-strings (IC-40), 376 days livetime, ~50% complete 59-strings (IC-59), 348 days livetime, ~50% complete 79-strings (IC-79), 333 days livetime, almost complete 86-strings (IC-86), 329 days livetime, complete 44

45 A pitch for optical/x-ray/gamma-ray to followups on IceCube observations IceCube is updating fast alert systems (GCN/ATEL) to be sent when a significant neutrino is seen The (current) best case is ~0.5 degree error circle not great for follow-up observations It's a lot to ask other telescopes to observe for a long time in a large area, for most likely, nothing But lets not forget, the upshot is huge here! Your telescopes can discover the first non-photon source in the sky! 45

46 Topologies of different event types Charge Current Muon Neutrinos Through-going Track Charge Current Electron/Tau Neutrinos All Neutral Current Neutrinos Starting Track Shower 46

47 47

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