The SKA and Pulsar Timing Arrays
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1 The SKA and Pulsar Timing Arrays George Hobbs April 2015 ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCE
2 Presentation title Presenter name Page 2
3 Main goal of the pulsar timing arrays 1. To detect gravitational waves 2. Status so far: none detected Presentation title Presenter name Page 3
4 Let s go back to 2007: conference on pulsars and the SKA Presentation title Presenter name Page 4
5 What we knew then: the full SKA would be built by 2018 Presentation title Presenter name Page 5
6 What we knew then: the three types of GW signal Presentation title Presenter name Page 6
7 What we knew then: how to detect GWs Presentation title Presenter name Page 7
8 What we knew then: how not to make figures + expected GW amplitude A~ > For A~10-15 need to time ~20 pulsars over 5 years with 100ns timing precision to get ~3 sigma detection Predict SKA will detect GWs or limit A < 6x10-17 Presentation title Presenter name Page 8
9 What has happened since? GW background models converged around A ~ Quote from Dr(!) Vikram Ravi a year or so ago I d be really surprised if the GW background amplitude was < ~2 x Presentation title Presenter name Page 9
10 What has happened since? Formed the International Pulsar Timing Array 1. Parkes Pulsar Timing Array observes ~20 pulsars every 2-3 weeks 2. Parkes is relatively small (64m) 3. Join with NANOGrav (Arecibo, GreenBank) and EPTA (Jodrell, Westerbork, Effelsberg, Nancay, Sardinia) to form International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA) 4. Now have long data sets on 50 pulsars Presentation title Presenter name Page 10
11 What has happened since? Improved our limits on the GW background 1. Shannon et al. (2013, Science) 2. A(95%) < 2.4x (cf. original predictions of < A < we could have already detected GWs) 4. Starting to rule out some models of GW backgrounds 5. Looking very promising for the IPTA and SKA Presentation title Presenter name Page 11
12 Expected time-scale (that we thought in 2013) 1. Individual PTA (e.g., Parkes) makes a low sigma GW background detection (e.g., 2-3 sigma) 2. International Pulsar Timing Array makes a higher significance detection (i.e., around 5 sigma) 3. MeerKAT + early FAST + International timing array improves on the significance 4. SKA + FAST studies the background in detail and finds individual supermassive black holes, tests theories of gravity,. (basic idea: Parkes can time around 20 pulsars with timing precisions around 100ns->1us. SKA is much more sensitive => SKA can time around 100 pulsars with sub 100-ns precision) Presentation title Presenter name Page 12
13 What should I do? 1. Be enthusiastic and optimistic? Say that the huge SKA collecting area will allow us to do amazing things. Time 100s of pulsars with 10ns precision. Detect backgrounds, single sources and bursts (as well as cosmic strings etc.) see SKA chapter for such text! 2. State our current problems and issues If 1) not be completely honest If 2) may give the impression that we have serious problems (when we may not)! Presentation title Presenter name Page 13
14 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan Shannon s paper 1: jitter 1. Pulse profiles are not stable => jitter 2. Jitter => cannot achieve ToA precision expected from the telescope sensitivity => SKA not as good as we thought it would be 3. Expected that we d only need to observe for a few minutes with SKA to get sub-100ns timing precision => can observe a large number of pulsars 4. For a jitter dominated pulsar. Time to achieve 100ns ToA with Parkes ~1 hour 5. Same pulsar with GBT Presentation title Presenter name Page 14
15 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 1: jitter 1. Pulse profiles are not stable => jitter 2. Jitter => cannot achieve ToA precision expected from the telescope sensitivity => SKA not as good as we thought it would be 3. Expected that we d only need to observe for a few minutes with SKA to get sub-100ns timing precision => can observe a large number of pulsars 4. For a jitter dominated pulsar time for 100ns ToA with Parkes ~1 hour 5. Same pulsar with GBT ~1 hour 6. Same pulsar with SKA Presentation title Presenter name Page 15
16 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 1: jitter 1. Pulse profiles are not stable => jitter 2. Jitter => cannot achieve ToA precision expected from the telescope sensitivity => SKA not as good as we thought it would be 3. Expected that we d only need to observe for a few minutes with SKA to get sub-100ns timing precision => can observe a large number of pulsars 4. For a jitter dominated pulsar time for 100ns ToA with Parkes ~1 hour 5. Same pulsar with GBT ~1 hour 6. Same pulsar with SKA ~1 hour Presentation title Presenter name Page 16
17 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 1: jitter 1. Pulse profiles are not stable => jitter 2. Jitter => cannot achieve ToA precision expected from the telescope sensitivity => SKA not as good as we thought it would be 3. Expected that we d only need to observe for a few minutes with SKA to get sub-100ns timing precision => can observe a large number of pulsars 4. For a jitter dominated pulsar time for 100ns ToA with Parkes ~1 hour 5. Same pulsar with GBT ~1 hour 6. Same pulsar with SKA ~1 hour 7. For a jitter dominated pulsar, having a big telescope doesn t help Presentation title Presenter name Page 17
18 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 2: DM correction 1. The dominant noise process in PTA data sets is usually caused by the ISM 2. Must use multi-frequency data to remove this noise before we can search for GWs. 3. PPTA uses dual-band 10/50cm receiver 4. Bill Coles We can't even get adequate DM corrections for our best sources with the PPTA. -> building ultra-wide-band receivers. 5. Proposal for SKA is to use SKA-mid for timing and SKA-low for DM correction Presentation title Presenter name Page 18
19 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 2: DM correction 1. Proposal for SKA is to use SKA-mid for timing and SKAlow for DM correction 2. Recent paper (Cordes, Shannon, Stinebring) predicts that it will be challenging to make this work for most pulsars 3. Caused by the DM being slightly different along different propagation paths (spread of paths varies greatly with frequency) 4. Can lead to uncorrectable residuals of microseconds (much larger than the Presentation title Presenter name Page 19 expected GWs)
20 The problem of having a great postdoc Ryan s paper 3: where are the GWs? 1. Shannon et al., submitted to Science (2015) 2. New PPTA limit: A(95%) < 8 x (cf. predicted amplitude of < A < 10-14) 4. This excludes the expected range oh dear! 5. Now can do amazing tests of cosmology, black hole coalescence, but cannot predict Presentation title Presenter name Page 20
21 Ryan s solutions 1. Jitter issue need sub-arrays (or 100 metre telescopes) to time best pulsars 2. SKA is not going to be made of 100-m telescopes so: a) need sub-arrays b) need to find special pulsars that are not jitter dominated c) need to find an observing band in which pulsars are not jitter dominated d) need to accept that pulsars will be jitter dominated => long observation times per pulsar. e) develop algorithms to mitigate the effects of jitter 3. Research required (but probably solvable somehow)! Presentation title Presenter name Page 21
22 Ryan s solutions 1. ISM correction issue ISM sucks: go to higher frequency (need 3 GHz system) 2. SKA-phase 1 doesn t have a 3GHz system! What are we going to do: a) show that we can use low frequency observations for DM correction (and that the model in the recent paper is incorrect) b) go to the 4GHz+ band, but even with SKA-1 collecting area the pulsars will be weak c) accept excess noise in the data through imperfectly corrected DM variations 3. Research required (but probably solvable somehow)! Presentation title Presenter name Page 22
23 Ryan s solutions 1. GW limit rules out existing models: We should build SKA-survey instead and go find SMBH binaries that way. 2. Hmmm that s not going to go down well! 3. We need more research into new GW predictions. Should we be targetting single sources? Where is the GW background? 4. Research required! Presentation title Presenter name Page 23
24 Some good news 1. If Parkes alone can rule out current models for GW backgrounds image what the SKA is going to do! 2. Now we know the SKA-1 rebaselined system we need to develop methods to deal with ISM correction, etc. 3. The GW background *will* exist at some level that is probably detectable by the SKA. The SKA should also detect individual SMBH sources. We need to work with the cosmology/black-hole/galaxy communities to understand how to improve GW background predictions 4. The SKA *will* revolutionise pulsar astronomy, but perhaps not in the way we expect. Presentation title Presenter name Page 24
25 Expected time-scale (previous) 1. Individual PTA (e.g., Parkes) makes a low sigma GW background detection (e.g., 2-3 sigma) 2. International Pulsar Timing Array makes a higher significance detection (i.e., around 5 sigma) 3. MeerKAT +early FAST + International timing array improves on the significance 4. SKA + FAST studies the background in detail and finds individual supermassive black holes, tests theories of gravity,. Presentation title Presenter name Page 25
26 Expected time-scale (my current, but changeable, view) 1. Individual PTA (e.g., Parkes) continues to place more and more stringent constraints on black hole coalescence models until noise is seen in the timing residuals 2. International Pulsar Timing Array confirms that the noise is GW -like and shows that the data for the best pulsars are correlated as expected. Have a estimation of GW amplitude. 3. MeerKAT +early FAST + International timing array improves on the significance 4. SKA + FAST actually makes the first direct detection of ultralow-frequency GWs. 5. NOTE: current efforts need to feed into design of "PTA experiment" on SKA (so need to have as much flexibility as possible in design) Presentation title Presenter name Page 26
27 Getting involved 1 1. New 3-year postdoc being advertised very soon at CSIRO to work with the pulsar group and with ASKAP Presentation title Presenter name Page 27
28 Getting involved 2 1. Organising 1-day meeting on Supermassive black holes and their environments: growth and evolution in Leura, Blue Mountains on 27th July Limits from pulsar timing in tension with current models for how SMBH grow and evolve. Some questions we will investigate: 3. How were the first SMBHs formed? How many of them were there? 4. How do galaxies and supermassive black holes merge? 5. What do the centres of galaxies look like and how do they affect binary evolution? 6. What is the predicted signal for the cosmological population of SMBH binaries 7. How can we incorporate GW limits into models of Galaxy-SMBH coevolution? 8. We hope to see you there! 9. ipta.phys.wvu.edu 10.Contact PPTA team for for information Presentation title Presenter name Page 28
29 Thank you CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science George Hobbs Research Scientist t E george.hobbs@csiro.au w CSIRO ASTRONOMY AND SPACE SCIENCE e/ghobbs
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