Nucleus. Good Science. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 1

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1 Nucleus Good Science 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 1

2 Polling Numbers In your opinion, are UFO s something real, or just people s imaginations? [Gallup 1996] Real just people s imagination don t know Gallup 48.5% 31.0% 20.6% S11 31% 25% 44% F11 56% 22% 22% F12 47% 6% 47% F13 31% 25% 44% F14 11% 22% 67% Do you think that UFO s have ever visited the earth in some form, or not? [Gallup 1996] Yes no don t know Gallup 45.1% 40.0% 15.9% S11 50% 25% 19% F11 39% 17% 44% F12 47% 12% 41% F13 38% 13% 50% F14 22% 28% 50% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 2

3 Polling Numbers Evolution, that is, the idea that human beings developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life is: [Gallup June 2007] Definitely true probably true probably false definitely false no opinion Gallup 18% 35% 16% 28% 3% S09 33% 53% 7% 0% 7% F09 28% 56% 0% 0% 17% S10 47% 29% 0% 6% 18% F10 21% 64% 7% 0% 7% S11 44% 38% 6% 0% 6% F11 33% 61% 6% 0% 0% F12 18% 71% 6% 0% 6% F13 38% 63% F14 61% 33% 6% Creationism, that is, the idea that God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years is: [Gallup June 2007] Definitely true probably true probably false definitely false no opinion Gallup 39% 27% 16% 15% 3% S09 0% 33% 40% 13% 13% F09 6% 0% 39% 28% 28% S10 18% 6% 18% 41% 18% F10 0% 21% 29% 36% 7% S11 6% 19% 19% 44% 13% F11 6% 6% 17% 50% 22% F12 0% 6% 35% 47% 12% F % 25% 25% F14 11% 6% 33% 50% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 3

4 Polling Numbers Do you feel that cigarette smoking is a major cause of lung cancer, a minor cause, or that science hasn't yet been able to tell just what the relation is between cigarette smoking and lung cancer? [Gallup, 7/19/2001] Major cause minor cause science hasn t been able to tell don t know n/a Gallup 71.6% 10.7% 15.7% 1.9% 0.2% S08 94% 0% 6% F08 67% 27% 0% S09 67% 20% 7% S10 82% 12% 6% F10 93% 7% S11 56% 25% 6% 13% F11 72% 11% 11% F12 76% 18% 6% F13 81% 19% F14 67% 11% 17% 6% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 4

5 Polling Numbers Do you believe in ESP, Extra Sensory Perception? Yes, believe in not sure about do not believe in don t know G % 19.4% 29.2% 2.4% G % 22.6% 26.7% 2.9% G % 20.3% 26.6% 3.4% G % 25.0% 32.5% 1.8% S10 12% 35% 41% 12% F10 14% 36% 29% 21% S11 25% 38% 31% 6% F11 17% 28% 33% 22% F12 29% 41% 18% 12% F13 31% 50% 13% 6% F14 22% 17% 39% 17% Do you believe in psychic or spiritual healing or the power of the human mind to heal the body? Yes, believe in not sure about do not believe in don t know G % 19.3% 34.1% 0.9% G % 19.5% 25.6% 1.0% G % 17.4% 26.2% 0.9% S10 29% 41% 18% 12% F10 21% 21% 50% S11 38% 13% 31% 6% F11 28% 22% 39% 11% F12 47% 24% 29% 0% F13 44% 25% 31% 6% F14 44% 50% 6% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 5

6 Do you believe in miracles? Yes not sure do not believe in don t know S10 65% 18% 18% 0% F10 64% 7% 29% 0% S11 38% 31% 19% 0% F11 39% 17% 33% 11% F12 24% 53% 24% 0% F13 25% 50% 13% 6% F14 44% 11% 39% 6% If you buy an herbal medicine over the counter, do you expect it to be safe for you? Yes No not sure S10 12% 12% 71% F10 14% 14% 71% S11 19% 19% 50% F11 28% 28% 33% F12 35% 18% 35% F13 19% 19% 63% F14 39% 22% 33% Do you believe that it is possible to connect in some way with someone who has died? Yes, believe in not sure about do not believe in don t know S10 12% 12% 59% 18% F10 21% 29% 36% 14% S11 13% 25% 38% 13% F11 6% 28% 56% F12 6% 41% 29% 12% F13 19% 25% 50% 6% F14 6% 11% 67% 11% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 6

7 Do you believe that psychic detectives can solve crimes? Yes No not sure S10 0% 41% 53% F10 7% 64% 29% S11 19% 63% 6% F11 11% 67% 11% F12 18% 53% 12% F13 19% 31% 50% F14 6% 72% 22% 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 7

8 What do you think about global warming? [Choose most accurate answer.] 22% Earth is warming due to natural climate variations. 0% Earth is not warming. 67% Earth is warming due to man-made sources. 6% don t know. Have you felt any direct effects of global warming? Yes 28% no 44% not sure 28% Gallup: 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 8

9 Right/wrong answers A recent study of 1000 coffee drinkers along with 1000 people who don t drink coffee showed that the coffee drinkers have, on average, higher blood pressure than those who don t drink coffee. What conclusion can we draw from this result? 0% Coffee causes high blood pressure. 6% Caffeine causes high blood pressure. 33% Drinking coffee is correlated with high blood pressure. 33% Consuming caffeine is correlated with high blood pressure. 22% No conclusion can be drawn from this information. What fraction of the electricity produced in the United States comes from nuclear reactors? 1% 5% 10% 20% 50% FA10 29% 14% 14% 36% 7% SP11 13% 25% 31% 19% 0% FA11 6% 22% 28% 33% 0% FA12 0% 47% 47% 18% 6% FA13 13% 19% 13% 44% 13% FA14 11% 17% 28% 33% 11% 4-Sept-2014 Approximately how long would it take a manned spacecraft to get from Earth to Mars? 1 hour 1 day 1 month 1 year 10 years FA10 0% 0% 29% 36% 36% SP11 0% 0% 13% 44% 31% FA11 0% 0% 22% 39% 28% FA12 0% 6% 0% 53% 29% FA13 25% 38% 38% FA14 0% 6% 11% 28% 56% Phys 192 Lecture 2 9

10 The most beautiful thing we can experience is the mysterious. It is the source of all true art and all science. He to whom this emotion is a stranger, who can no longer pause to wonder and stand rapt in awe, is as good as dead: his eyes are closed. Albert Einstein 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 10

11 exercise Get into groups of 3-4 people. Nominate a scribe to take notes. Discuss the following Think of some examples of some good things in our society that are based upon science. Think of some examples of some bad things in our society that are based upon science. Think of some examples of things in our society that should be based upon science but are not. Think of some examples of things are based (at least in part) on science that shouldn t be. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 11

12 Definition of Science Main Entry: sci ence Pronunciation: 'si-&n(t)s Function: noun 1 : the state of knowing : knowledge as distinguished from ignorance or misunderstanding 2 a : a department of systematized knowledge as an object of study <the science of theology> b : something (as a sport or technique) that may be studied or learned like systematized knowledge <have it down to a science> 3 a : knowledge or a system of knowledge covering general truths or the operation of general laws especially as obtained and tested through scientific method b : such knowledge or such a system of knowledge concerned with the physical world and its phenomena : NATURAL SCIENCE Source: Merriam-Webster 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 12

13 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 13

14 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 14

15 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 15

16 Types of Guesses Hypothesis One or more ideas to explain an observation or set of observations. Must be useful in making predictions about other observations, be testable, and be falsifiable. Model Hypotheses that have withstood observational and experimental tests. Theory (commonly misused) A well-founded body of related hypotheses and models that form a self-consistent description of nature. Q: Can you conclusively prove a theory? Law A theory that has been very well tested and is applicable over a wide range of different situations. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 16

17 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 17

18 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 18

19 Which are valid scientific hypotheses? 1. Any two objects dropped from the same height above the surface of the moon will hit the lunar surface at the same time. 2. All horses are brown. 3. Our universe is surrounded by another, larger universe, with which we can have absolutely no contact. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 19

20 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 20

21 Scientific Method 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. Observe 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. Guess/Predict Test/criticize 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. Repeat 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 21

22 Science, religion, and pseudo-science Scientific theories are experimentally verifiable (or falsifiable) and predictive. They address how questions (e.g. How do stars form? When will the next lunar eclipse be?) Religious and ethical statements are (generally) not verifiable. They address why questions (e.g. Why does the Universe exist? What kind of life is worth living?). These are not intrinsically less worthwhile than scientific inquiries, they are simply addressing different questions. Pseudo-science theories pretend to be scientific but are either not falsifiable (e.g. séances, ) or supporters or use anecdotal evidence to support claims (e.g. astrology, creation science). Pseudo-scientific theories are usually not predictive 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 22

23 Nation s report card here Findings: Thirty-four percent of fourth-graders, 30 percent of eighth-graders, and 21 percent of twelfth-graders performed at or above the Proficient level. Seventy-two percent of fourth-graders, 63 percent of eighth-graders, and 60 percent of twelfth-graders performed at or above the Basic level. One percent of fourth-graders, 2 percent of eighthgraders, and 1 percent of twelfth-graders performed at the Advanced level. Contest! 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 23

24 The Copernican Revolution Prior to Copernicus, (almost) everybody believed the sun, moon, planets and stars rotated around the earth. Copernicus idea: Sun is at the center of the universe. Earth, and planets travel in circular orbits around the Sun. The earth is just a planet Deep philosopical implcations The Church Forbids Galileo s teaching - places him under house arrest (ca. 1640). Not until 1820 does the Church admit that Galileo was correct. Brahe, followed by Kepler showed that the planetary orbits were elliptical. 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 24

25 Problem of the Planets The motion of each planet - Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter & Saturn - follows a different path at a different speed along the Zodiac Their speed varies and sometimes they move backward! Known by Ptolemy in 150 A.D. retrograde motion 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 25

26 Ptolemy (150AD/CE): Planets move on circles (epicycles) centered on another circle (deferent) which moves uniformly around the Earth. Solutions?? Aristarchus (c 250 BC/BCE) Copernicus ( ) Sun is the center of the universe. All planets (including Earth) move about the Sun (in circles). 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 26

27 From astronomy to gravitation Tycho Brahe, Sir Isaac Newton, Nicolaus Copernicus, Johannes Kepler, Claudius Ptolemy, Galileo Galilei, Egypt 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 27

28 The Copernican Revolution But in fact, Copernicus didn t have it right. It took: Brahe, Kepler, Galileo and Newton another ~160 years before we had a real understanding of gravitation and orbits of the planets. But wait! Einstein corrects Newtonian gravitation with General Relativity in Someday in the future, quantum gravity will likely correct General Relativity. How long did the Copernican revolution last? 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 28

29 Skepticism and Truth Role of skepticism. An essential part of the scientific method. Scientists always question the basis for an scientific assertion. This is often considered impolite behavior in social settings, but is not impolite in scientific discussion. What is truth? - Scientific theories are not statements of truth. They are the best available explanation for observed facts, but are subject to revision or falsification. Example: Gravitation (Newton vs. Einstein). Scientists must be able to admit that they are wrong. Q: Does the science make assumptions? If yes, what assumptions does it make? 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 29

30 Science and the Press In Life Science magazine from June 2005 it said, since the late 1960 s most of the North Atlantic has been become less salty in part due to fresh water runoff due to global warming. In New Scientist this month, it was reported that, surface waters of the North Atlantic are getting saltier due to global warming, scientist say. So either it s getting less salty due to global warming or more salty due to global warming. Next time you don t turn in your homework blame global warming. Tony Blankley, Washington Times on KCRW s Left, Right and Center, Aug 24, [quote is approximate] 4-Sept-2014 Phys 192 Lecture 2 30

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