Thoughts on future space astrometry missions

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1 Thoughts on future space astrometry missions Anthony Brown Leiden Observatory Sterrewacht Leiden With special thanks to Erik Høg Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.1/27

2 The Gaia astrophysics survey Number of observations per square degree since launch Figure courtesy DPAC IDT team, University of Barcelona Simultaneous astrometry, photometry, spectroscopy Complete to G = 20 (V = 20 22), G 16 for spectroscopy Observing programme: autonomous detection, unbiased Quasi-regular time-sampling over 5 years ( 70 observations) Angular resolution comparable to HST > 1 billion stars to G = galaxies quasars solar system bodies tens of thousands of exoplanets Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.2/27

3 Gaia astrometric performance End-of-mission parallax standard error [µas] Hipparcos B1V M6V V [mag] Apply factors 0.7 and 0.5 for positions and proper motions Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.3/27

4 Gaia astrometric performance 1% accurate distances for about 11 million stars 10% accurate distances for about 150 million stars Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.4/27 25 Parallax relative accuracy horizons (A V = 0.0) M6V 20 1% 10% M0V K4V G2V K1III M0III B1V B0I V % Distance [pc]

5 Very broad range of science cases Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.5/27

6 Missions currently planned or in development Japan Nano-JASMINE: Hipparcos concept, 3 mas accuracy at z = 7.5, launch early cm primary mirror, technology demonstrator, all sky only mission that is actually implemented small-jasmine: µas at H 11, 3 3 deg 2 toward galactic centre JASMINE: 10 µas at K 11, 200 deg 2 toward bulge Europe, M4 proposals Theia: 0.3 µas over 1 degree field at V = 10 differential astrometry, builds on NEAT observatory type mission GAME: goal is γ to , β to China differential astrometric measurements of light bending STEP: exo-earth search with 1 µas differential astrometry Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.6/27

7 Strategies for future directions Informed by results from Gaia and other surveys " What are the new questions (surprises) from the Gaia data (combined with other surveys)? " Which questions were left unanswered by Gaia? " Focus mission design on these new directions $ Will only know this around 2020 $ Focused missions can come too late Survey new wavelength or accuracy domain " Always turns up interesting new science " Competitive on longer term " Can be decided on now $ Technically very challenging (") Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.7/27

8 Staying competitive Gaia in evolving astronomy field Gaia was proposed 20 years ago (and Galactic archaeology is dead now?) Some of the Gaia science can be addressed by ground based surveys (RAVE, SDSS, Gaia-ESO, Pan-Starrs,... ) many surveys stimulated by Gaia Gaia results will be at forefront of astrophysics for decades Global astrometry: absolute parallaxes and proper motions to unprecedented accuracies All sky, homogeneous, multi-epoch photometry and spectroscopy. Spectroscopy for numbers of objects out of reach of ground based efforts. Mapping of the full sky at HST-like angular resolution to 20th magnitude. None of this is achievable from the ground! Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.8/27

9 The case for sub-µas astrometry Offers science capabilities not otherwise achievable ground based astrometry efforts will be limited to narrow field and small samples Will be competitive on time scale from now to Following science case examples assume sub-µas accuracies can be reached at m = 15, with photon noise degradation at fainter magnitudes. Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.9/27

10 Planets and stars Terrestrial planets near the Sun 10 nano-arcsec level astrometry enables a survey of 100s of thousands of nearby stars study habitable zone around a range of star types Relative parallax accuracy Distance modulus LMC M31 Accuracies at m = 15.0 σϖ = 1 µas σϖ = 0.1 µas σϖ = 0.01 µas σϖ = µas Mtracer = 5.0 1% relative par. prec distance [kpc] Stellar physics High accuracy parallaxes for stellar structure studies over large volume even for dwarf stars explore different environments in Milky Way Standard candles throughout local group directly measure environment effects test universality of candles Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.10/27

11 Planets and stars Terrestrial planets near the Sun 10 nano-arcsec level astrometry enables a survey of 100s of thousands of nearby stars study habitable zone around a range of star types Relative parallax accuracy Distance modulus LMC M31 Accuracies at m = 15.0 σϖ = 1 µas σϖ = 0.1 µas σϖ = 0.01 µas σϖ = µas Mtracer = 5.0 1% relative par. prec distance [kpc] Stellar physics High accuracy parallaxes for stellar structure studies over large volume even for dwarf stars explore different environments in Milky Way Standard candles throughout local group directly measure environment effects test universality of candles Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.11/27

12 Local group archaeology velocity precision [km/s] Distance modulus LMC V T = 2.0 km/s σ ϖ/ϖ < 0.3 M tracer = 0.0 M31 Accuracies at m 15.0 σ µ = 1 µas/yr σ µ = 0.1 µas/yr σ µ = 0.01 µas/yr σ µ = µas/yr 20% relative vel. prec distance [kpc] Internal motions of kinematically cold structures throughout the local group streams, ultra-faint dwarfs Astrometrically resolving internal dynamics of galaxies provided sub-µas accuracies are reached to faint magnitudes Precise mapping of dark matter (sub-)structure throughout local group and beyond Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.12/27

13 Geometric or real-time cosmology Distance modulus Relative parallax accuracy LMC M31 Accuracies at m = 15.0 σϖ = 1 µas σϖ = 0.1 µas σϖ = 0.01 µas σϖ = µas Mtracer = % relative par. prec distance [kpc] Quercellini et al., 2012, Phys. Rep. 521 issue 3 Trigonometric distances to z 0.1, independent of cosmological model Measure of changes over time in the angular separation between sources at cosmic distances Powerful consistency test of assumed space-time metric Direct constraints of cosmic anisotropy Requires (sub-)µas astrometry combined with sufficient time baseline Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.13/27

14 Fundamental physics examples Stringent tests of GR light bending predictions Energy density stochastic gravitational wave background could be ultimate limitation on astrometric precision reachable Narrow field regime weigh neutron stars in binary systems in model independent way pulsar-white dwarf systems for GR tests in strong field regime Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.14/27

15 Some of the challenges of sub-µas astrometry Constraints Assume astrometric precision scales as: σ λ B N Scaling up baseline B is the only realistic improvement in the optical interferometric mission with collecting areas of a few m 2 and baselines of meter How to do global astrometry with such a configuration? Engineering Precision formation flying Thermo-mechanical stability demands, attitude control, knowledge of spacecraft position/velocity Photon collection robust to radiation damage effects Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.15/27

16 Some of the challenges of sub-µas astrometry Klioner 2012, MmSAI, 83, 994 Conceptual and data processing Relativistic modelling of astrometric measurements in nano-arcsec regime? metric and light propagation laws in fields of N arbitrary bodies with full multipole structure improved knowledge solar system (e.g., asteroid masses) extreme orbit determination requirements for spacecraft System calibration extremely challenging should be better by order of magnitude than astrometric precision aimed for Research into proper modelling of time dependence of source coordinates investigate sources of astrometric jitter (star spots, µ-lensing, etc) Sufficient compact (< 1 AU) bright sources for global astrometry? Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.16/27

17 The Gaia2 option Proposal Two 5-year Gaia missions (one already launched!) at 20 years interval 10 times better proper motions for a billion stars Improved parallaxes Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.17/27

18 The Gaia2 option yr 40 yr exoplanet.eu Mass [Mjup] Orbital Period [days] Stars and exoplanets Discovery of long period (10 40 years) giant planets, poorly surveyed at present solar system analogues Clean-up of uncertain binary classification/parameters through comparison of long and short time-baseline proper motions improve binary population statistics and dynamical studies Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.18/27

19 The Gaia2 option Pal 5 stream easiest to find but cannot resolve internal kinematics with Gaia alone Resolve tangential motion in streams and local dwarf galaxies 2 3 km/s for specific samples out to 100 kpc even M31 internal motions within reach not possible with Gaia alone Much better orbits globular clusters, dwarfs Real time cosmology figure courtesy R. Ibata, SDSS Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.19/27

20 The Gaia2 option Proposal Two 5-year Gaia missions (one already launched!) at 20 years interval 10 times better proper motions for a billion stars Improved parallaxes " We already built one Gaia " Could fit lower cost envelope not obvious: are knowledge and expertise maintained? " Profit from Gaia lessons learned fix the weak points of Gaia improvements in data processing and instrument modelling optimize photometric and spectroscopic instruments filter photometry? (higher spatial resolution) consider going to the near IR Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.20/27

21 Infrared astrometry at (sub-) µas levels " see through dust and better map bulge, disk, spiral arms, star forming regions " low-mass stars, brown dwarfs, free-floating planets over large volume $ Combining Gaia data, gas/dust maps, galaxy modelling goes a long way " but IR offers model independent distances or tangential velocities Challenges: TDI at infrared, cooling of payload,... Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.21/27

22 Long term maintenance reference frame Gaia optical reference frame will degrade over time at G = 20 from 0.4 mas to 14 mas in 50 years Drivers for reference frame Link to reference frames at other wavelengths cross-matching with absolute coordinates Reference grid for other surveys requires maintenance of accuracy at appropriate density Dense and accurate reference grids needed for Extreme/Giant/Overwhelming telescopes Can this be done from the ground? Is a space astrometry mission needed for this purpose? Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.22/27

23 Preparing for the next step in astrometric surveys Gaia will soon revolutionize astronomy with µ-as level astrometry many new questions which will demand the next level of data will turn up surprises which could determine future science interests Build on and preserve experience from Hipparcos and Gaia projects Embark on the necessary studies concepts for global sub-µas astrometry study possible limitations (relativistic modelling, source modelling, system calibration) precision formation flying, detector improvements, extreme mechanical stability, S/C orbit determination, higher communications bandwidths, mirror polishing Develop measurement and data analysis concepts robust to instrument instabilities Find ways to break the σ 1/B scaling Account for state of play after 2020 (photometric, spectroscopic surveys) Seriously consider the Gaia2 option work out further compelling science cases study near-ir option Think about long term reference frame maintenance Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.23/27

24 Preparing for the next step in astrometric surveys Residual basic angle variations (blue) and on-board object detection rates (red) RVS rate 10 Residual BA variations AF/XP rate Figure courtesy L. Lindegren Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.24/27

25 Preparing for the next step in astrometric surveys Gaia will soon revolutionize astronomy with µ-as level astrometry many new questions which will demand the next level of data will turn up surprises which could determine future science interests Build on and preserve experience from Hipparcos and Gaia projects Embark on the necessary studies concepts for global sub-µas astrometry study possible limitations (relativistic modelling, source modelling, system calibration) precision formation flying, detector improvements, extreme mechanical stability, S/C orbit determination, higher communications bandwidths, mirror polishing Develop measurement and data analysis concepts robust to instrument instabilities Find ways to break the σ 1/B scaling Account for state of play after 2020 (photometric, spectroscopic surveys) Seriously consider the Gaia2 option work out further compelling science cases study near-ir option Think about long term reference frame maintenance Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.25/27

26 Credits Gaia Science Team C. Jordi S.A. Klioner L. Lindegren F. Mignard M.S. Randich C. Soubiran N. Walton DPAC Executive C. Babusiaux C.A.L. Bailer-Jones U. Bastian S. Els L. Eyer X. Luri D. Pourbaix P. Sartoretti A. Vallenari F. van Leeuwen C. Turon A. Helmi Gaia2 E. Høg R. Ibata J.L. Halbwachs F. Malbet Gaia Future Sub-µas astrometry Gaia2 Recommendations Barcelona p.26/27

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