Dealing with the asteroid impact threat in Europe - ESA's SSA-NEO programme status

Transcription

1 Image credit: ESA Dealing with the asteroid impact threat in Europe - ESA's SSA-NEO programme status Detlef Koschny, Gerhard Drolshagen (ESA) SSA-NEO Segment Managers SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 1

2 How does ESA work? ESA currently has 22 member states + 1 affiliated member ESA 2

3 SSA is one of ESA s programmes SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 3

4 Organigramme Director General Director of Operations SSA Programme Manager Space Weather Segment Management SSA-NEO Segment Management Space Surveillance and Tracking Segment Management Observations OGS, ESO/VLT Test-Bed Telescope Klet, Fly-Eye, coordination Information system NEODyS, EARN NEO Tools, Impact corridor Web stories Mitigation support SMPAG, IAWN Decision process Space-based instruments SSA support IT support, Data policy, Communications, h/w + s/w dev SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 4

5 The threat from asteroids Chelyabinsk Feb 2013 ~20 m object entered the Earth s atmosphere over Chelyabinsk, Russia Airburst, shock wave 1500 people hurt Expected on Earth once every 10 to 100 years Sudan event 2008 TC3 1 st predicted impact a 7-m object exploded in the atmosphere over Sudan in Oct 2008 Carancas, Peru 2007 A 1-m object created a 14-m crater And many more ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 5

6 Mission statement SSA-NEO To establish and support a European capability for the protection of its critical space and ground infrastructure from threats by potential asteroid impacts. ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 6

7 Main tasks Perform observations Collect and store data on NEOs Predict orbits of near-earth objects Provide warnings on potential impacts Set up a decision process on how to react and interfaces to emergency response agencies Possible impact corridor of an asteroid 10 days before impact ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 7

8 SSA-NEO setup - context ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan Jan 2016, 2016, p. 8 p. 8

9 NEO Coordination Centre ESRIN, Italy SSA-NEO Coordination Centre Inauguration 22 May 2013 ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 9

10 Observations main assets Optical Ground Station (OGS) 1 m f/ deg x 0.7 deg FoV 4-6 nights per month Klet observatory 1 m f/4 0.8 deg x 0.8 deg FoV Exclusively used for NEOs Very Large Telescope ESO 8 m telescope 11 hours per semester Used for follow-up of faint NEOs on risk list Large Binocular Telescope Precovery searches 10 ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 10

11 Observations main assets Test-Bed Telescope 56 cm aperture 2.2 deg x 2.2 deg field of view For testing scheduling/tasking and data processing 1 st telescope being commissioned in Spain 2 nd telescope should start in 2016 in Chile Fly-Eye Telescope 1 m effective aperture 6.7 deg x 6.7 deg field of view Prototype with two optical channels under development 1 st telescope ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 11

12 Images CGS/Cibin 12

13 Data provision and orbit computation/prediction NEO Coordination Centre maintains risk list NEODyS is one of the federated assets of the NEOCC Computes precise orbits including co-variances Makes impact prediction In the process of establishing long-term support, integrate more into NEOCC Impact corridor computations are being added Close cooperation with the JPL Sentry impact monitoring system The risk list showing all NEOs having an impact probability >0 within the next 100 years ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 13

14 Post-docs, master studies, term papers A Parametric Assessment of the Full PHA Phase Space, and Deflection Feasibility using Kinetic Impactors Performed by F. Bach within the mission analysis team at ESA/ESOC (J. Schoenmaekers) Detailed slides and paper available Parking orbits for asteroid characterization and deflection missions Performed by S. Maki, collaboration with TU Munich, Germany Final thesis available Fly-by missions at asteroids how much do they help mitigating a potential impact S. Schuster, P. Kollo, collaboration with TU Munich, Germany Includes discussion of a metric to measure orbit improvement A database on impact effects studies B. Doodkorte, collaboration with University College Middelburg, NL Includes a gap analysis to identify necessary future work Rotational and linear momentum transfer for kinetic impactors R. Koschny, Intern at ESTEC ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 14

15 S = Success, F = Failure Parking orbits for asteroid missions Focuses on transfers from parking orbits Produces pork-chop plots showing not only the delta-v of the transfer but also the deflection Deflection Success Criterion: Mission Report ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 15

16 Schuster/Kollo How much can we improve the orbit accuracy by spacecraft fly-by? Understand orbit accuracy, what s a good metric for it? Assess existing missions e.g. Rosetta at Steins/Lutetia Which instruments do we need for flyby (=> task toolbox ) Quantitative assessment of orbit improvement as function of flyby distance/velocity and used instrumentation Uncertainty-ellipse area (in this case perpendicular to velocity vector) 1AU distance ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 16

17 SSA-NEO setup - context ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan Jan 2016, 2016, p. 17 p. 17

18 Interface to emergency response Workshops to collect input, training, raise awareness NEO Information Plan describes information distribution Presented to SSA Delegate body in Dec 2015 Approval scheduled for May 2016 ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 18

19 Setting up the decision process as part of an international activity IAWN = International Asteroid Warning Network Next meetings of IAWN and SMPAG: Feb 2016, in the margins of the COPUOS sessions in Vienna SMPAG = Space Missions Planning Advisory Group OOSA = Office for Outer Space Affairs COPUOS = Committee for Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (of the United Nations) ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 19

20 AIM = Asteroid Impact Mission Part of AIDA (Asteroid Impact Deflection Assessment) Two parallel studies ongoing (funded by General Studies Programme) QuinetiQ in Belgium OHB in Germany Asteroid_Impact_Mission/CubeSat_companions_for_ESA_s_asteroid _mission ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 20

21 Image: Perozzi Summary and outlook ESA is preparing for a potential asteroid impact risk Will request an increase in funding at the Council meeting on ministerial level in Dec nd fly-eye telescope Finalize move of NEODyS to ESRIN Add personnel: observers, operators Add redundancy and backup systems ESA unclassified For official use SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-0236/1.0; Jan 2016, p. 21