EarthFinder A NASA-selected Probe Mission Concept Study for input to the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey

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1 EarthFinder A NASA-selected Probe Mission Concept Study for input to the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey Peter Plavchan Assistant Professor George Mason University pplavcha@gmu.edu

2 EarthFinder Team 2

3 The Future: Planet-finding techniques have improved dramatically in the last two decades: we are directly imaging exoplanets and measuring their atmospheres, and finding smaller and smaller planets. Only a matter of time (and money) until we find a large number of habitable worlds, and perhaps, signs of life.

4 The Future: How many stars do we need to look at? How Planet-finding big (expensive) techniques does have improved the telescope dramatically need in to the be? last two decades: Will we are know directly where imaging and when exoplanets to look? and measuring their atmospheres, and finding smaller and smaller planets. Only a matter of time (and money) until we find a large number of habitable worlds, and perhaps, signs of life.

5 The Future: How many stars do we need to look at? How Planet-finding big (expensive) techniques does have improved the telescope dramatically need in to the be? last two decades: Will we are know directly where imaging and when exoplanets to look? and measuring their atmospheres, and finding smaller and smaller planets. Only a matter of time (and money) until we find a large number of habitable worlds, and perhaps, signs of life. Either way, we will still need the planet masses for characterization!

6 The Doppler Method 6

7 The Future Promise of RVs 7

8 The Future Promise of RVs 8

9 The Future Promise of RVs Latham s Law 9

10 The Future Promise of RVs Latham s Law 10

11 The Future Promise of RVs Latham s Law 11

12 The Future Promise of RVs 12

13 The Future Promise of RVs 13

14 The Future Promise of RVs The great radial velocity market crash of 2010! 14

15 The Future Promise of RVs The end of Latham s law? 15

16 Causes of the RV recession Kepler - Redirection of resources and personnel Instrumentation - 1 m/s single measurement precision from HARPS, 2-3 m/s from iodine technique Telescope time - 10x improvement in precision requires 100x increase in telescope time (or reduction in target lists); multi-planet system number of discovery epochs increases non-linearly (30: 1 planet;100+: 2 planets; 500+: 3+ planets) Pipeline analysis - CPS code is 20 years old, designed for computation-limited environment. HARPS code is basic CCF with line-masking Stellar Activity - Targeting quietest stars running its course 16

17 Credit: Ball Aerospace EarthFinder

18 EarthFinder Radial Velocities Credit: Ball Aerospace

19 EarthFinder Radial Velocities in space! Credit: Ball Aerospace

20 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars

21 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars

22 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars NEID, EXPRES, ESPRESSO

23 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars NEID, EXPRES, ESPRESSO

24 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars NEID, EXPRES, ESPRESSO EarthFinder

25 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars NEID, EXPRES, ESPRESSO 10% mass precision: ~ 1 cm/s EarthFinder

26 Science Discovery, mass and orbit characterization of Earth-mass exoplanets orbiting nearest Sun-like stars NEID, EXPRES, ESPRESSO Important not only to achieve this sensitivity, but to sustain it on multi-year time-scales. 10% mass precision: ~ 1 cm/s EarthFinder

27 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked with: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? What can t you do from the ground? 27

28 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked to: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? What can t you do from the ground? 28

29 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked to: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? What can t you do from the ground? 29

30 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked to: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? What can t you do from the ground? 30

31 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked to: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? Can we solve stellar activity? What can t you do from the ground? 31

32 Study Focus We are not building the mission; We are not proposing to build the mission; We are tasked to: Evaluate the scientific rationale for going to space vs. staying on the ground: What do you gain from space? Can we solve stellar activity? What can t you do from the ground? Will the Earth s atmosphere limit RV precision on the ground? 32

33 Study Teams Instrument & Mission Gautam Vasisht Tellurics Sharon Wang Stellar Activity Heather Cegla, Xavier Dumusque Ancillary Science Courtney Dressing, Peter Gao 33

34 Spacecraft & Orbit 45 o baffle Instrument Bay Thermal Isolation Gap Spacecraft Bus Solar Panels Anti-Sun Thermal shield Ball Aerospace Kepler, Spitzer heritage Extended baffle Thermal shield 1.45 meter primary 5 year primary mission nearest FGKM main sequence stars Earth-trailing or L2 orbit 70.7% of sky visible at any time Minimum two three-month visibility windows every year 29% of sky in continuous viewing zone

35 Spacecraft & Orbit 45 o baffle Instrument Bay Thermal Isolation Gap Spacecraft Bus Constant Viewing Zone 45º EarthFinder 135º EarthFinder Solar Panels Anti-Sun Thermal shield Ball Aerospace Kepler, Spitzer heritage Extended baffle Thermal shield 1.45 meter primary 5 year primary mission nearest FGKM main sequence stars Earth-trailing or L2 orbit 70.7% of sky visible at any time Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6% Minimum two three-month visibility windows every year 29% of sky in continuous viewing zone Sun Line Operational Pointing Zone: ~70.7% Figure from Bahaa Hamze Anti-Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6%

36 Instrument

37 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

38 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration & 1 cm/s thermal stability Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

39 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration & 1 cm/s thermal stability Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

40 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration & 1 cm/s thermal stability Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

41 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration & 1 cm/s thermal stability Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

42 Instrument Spectrograph: High-resolution (R~ k) Diffraction-limited (Single mode fiber spatial illumination stability) Laser frequency micro-comb wavelength calibration & 1 cm/s thermal stability Visible arm: nm NIR arm: nm Small UV arm for 280 nm MgI chromospheric activity indicator

43 Why space? Figure from Sam Halverson

44 Why space? Figure from Sam Halverson

45 What can t be done from the ground? The Earth s atmosphere may introduce RV errors of ~10 cm/s in the visible, & ~1 m/s in the NIR

46 The telluric challenge Δv

47 Cunha et al Impact for HARPS data from ignoring micro-telluric 47

48 Divide by telluric model or standard? Sameshima et al. 2018: We also develop a new diagnostic method for evaluating the accuracy of telluric correction and use it to demonstrate that our method achieves an accuracy better than 2% for spectral parts for which the atmospheric transmittance is as low as 20% if telluric standard stars are observed under the following conditions: (1) the difference in airmass between the target and the standard is <0.05; and (2) that in time is less than 1 h. In particular, the time variability of water vapor has a large impact on the accuracy of telluric correction and minimizing the difference in time from that of the telluric standard star is important especially in near-infrared highresolution spectroscopic observation.

49 Divide by telluric model or standard? I 2 cell Induced RV error (m/s) Broad Opt. Spectrographs like NEID NIR Spectrographs like PARVI Y J H K Target precision Figure from Cullen Blake

50 Stellar Activity Approaches under exploration for activity mitigation: Wavelength Coverage (e.g. CARMENES) Cadence (e.g. MINERVA) R~200k resolution (e.g. ESPRESSO) Line-by-line analysis Simultaneous photometry (e.g. Oshagh et al. 2017, RVxK2) 50

51 Wavelength Dependence To first order, RV~1/λ was expected for cool starspots (eg Reiners et al. 2010),and observed for T Tauri stars, Barnard's star with HARPS, and now CARMENES: Reiners et al (in prep) amplitude

52 Wavelength Dependence To first order, RV~1/λ was expected for cool starspots (eg Reiners et al. 2010),and observed for T Tauri stars, Barnard's star with HARPS, and now CARMENES: Reiners et al (in prep) amplitude

53 Wavelength Dependence To first order, RV~1/λ was expected for cool starspots (eg Reiners et al. 2010),and observed for T Tauri stars, Barnard's star with HARPS, and now CARMENES: Reiners et al (in prep) Stellar activity is not a simple function of λ, and also time-dependent amplitude

54 Wavelength Dependence 54 Slide from Ignas Ribas group

55 Wavelength Dependence 55

56 Wavelength Dependence 56

57 Wavelength Dependence RV color subtracts planet signal(s) completely! Clean measure of RVs due to chromatic activity! Needs modeling to go from RV color > RV from activity To zeroth order, activity RV α RV color, so: Isolated planet signal is ~RV - Cx(RV color) 57

58 Wavelength Dependence 58

59 The cadence advantage of space We have clearly demonstrated that high cadence observations on the timescale of the stellar rotation period are essential for reliable RV detection of planets orbiting active stars. 59

60 The cadence advantage of space Space Ground Constant Viewing Zone Field of regard 45º EarthFinder 135º EarthFinder Sun Line Operational Pointing Zone: ~70.7% Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6% Anti-Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6% Figure from Bahaa Hamze Two 3-6 month visibility windows per year (critical for yr HZ orbital periods), no daytime (no 1 day aliases!) 60 One ~3-6 month visibility window per year, minus daytime and minus weather

61 The cadence advantage of space Space Ground Constant Viewing Zone Field of regard 45º EarthFinder 135º EarthFinder Sun Line Operational Pointing Zone: ~70.7% Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6% Anti-Sun Avoidance Zone: ~14.6% Figure from Bahaa Hamze Due to loss of observing time on the ground due to daytime and weather, a 1.5-m telescope in space has the photon gathering power of a ~3.5-m telescope on the ground. 61

62 The cadence advantage of space Median target with 2 terrestrial planets from a 5 yr, 42 target super-neid vs. EarthFinder survey of direct imaging targets. Realistic survey simulation accounting for weather and daytime, target list, stellar host RV information content Uniform random cadence for target in CVZ; See also Hall et al. (2018) 62

63 The cadence advantage of space Median target with 2 terrestrial planets from a 5 yr, 42 target super-neid vs. EarthFinder survey of direct imaging targets. 1 day cadence 80 Not significant aliasing Power (+offset) times lower p-value! times lower p-value! Period (days) 63

64 $ Cost

65 Cost $ HIRES? NIRSPEC

66 Cost $ CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

67 Cost Keck VLT $ WIYN? CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

68 Cost GMT/TMT/ELT Keck VLT $ WIYN? CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

69 Cost GMT/TMT/ELT Keck VLT $ WIYN? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

70 Cost Keck VLT GMT/TMT/ELT 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ WIYN? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

71 Cost Keck VLT GMT/TMT/ELT RV 1 cm/s + telescopes 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ WIYN? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

72 Cost HST (cumulative) HST (launch) Keck VLT GMT/TMT/ELT RV 1 cm/s + telescopes 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ WIYN? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

73 Cost HST (launch) HST (cumulative) JWST Keck VLT Kepler GMT/TMT/ELT RV 1 cm/s + telescopes 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ WIYN? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES?

74 Cost HST (launch) HST (cumulative) JWST LUVOIR/ATLAST HabEx GMT/TMT/ELT VLT Kepler RV 1 cm/s + telescopes Keck 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ 1 ground RV 1 cm/s HIRES? WIYN? CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID

75 Cost HST (launch) HST (cumulative) JWST LUVOIR/ATLAST HabEx Keck VLT Kepler GMT/TMT/ELT EarthFinder RV 1 cm/s + telescopes 6 global network RV 1 cm/s $ WIYN? CARMENES ESPRESSO? NIRSPEC NEID HIRES? 1 ground RV 1 cm/s

76 EarthFinder Summary EarthFinder is a space-based 1.45-m observatory Probe mission concept Extremely precise and stabilized high-resolution UV-VIS-NIR spectrograph Developing scientific rationale for measuring stellar velocities of the nearest FGKM dwarf stars from space Absence of the Earth s atmosphere improves the obtainable radial velocity precision Unique combination of space advantages aid in mitigating stellar activity: Ancillary science cases: Uninterrupted wavelength coverage Uninterrupted cadence Diffraction-limited Extreme spectral resolution Asteroseismology Water in the local Universe Acceleration of the Universe UV space capability spanning Hubble - HabEx/LUVOIR. temporal gap And more! 76

77 Thank you 77

78

79 MINERVA - Photons 172 targets

80 MINERVA - Time HARPS RVs of CoRoT 7

81 MINERVA - Time Gaussian Processes - Figure from João P. Faria

82 Instrument High-resolution (R~200k) UV-Optical-NIR diffractionlimited stablized spectrograph m 82 Figure from Gautam Vasisht

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