Why Care About Counterfactual Support? The Cognitive Uses of Causal Order Lecture 2

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Why Care About Counterfactual Support? The Cognitive Uses of Causal Order Lecture 2"

Transcription

1 Why Care About Counterfactual Support? The Cognitive Uses of Causal Order Lecture 2

2 You Do Care About Counterfactual Support

3 Two Regularities All uranium spheres are less than a mile in diameter All gold spheres are less than a mile in diameter

4 Two Regularities All uranium spheres are less than a mile in diameter All gold spheres are less than a mile in diameter

5 Two More Regularities All ravens are black All members of the 1964 Greenbury School Board are bald

6 Two More Regularities All ravens are black All members of the 1964 Greenbury School Board are bald

7 Conclusion Some true generalizations are law-like ; some are not But what is lawlikeness?

8 Answer A lawlike generalization supports counterfactuals

9 Two Counterfactuals If these two ravens were to mate, their offspring would be black If Hilary Clinton were elected to the 1964 Greenbury School Board, her hair would fall out

10 Counterfactuals and Lawlikeness The baldness of the school board members is a coincidence; if things had gone differently, baldness would not be universal The blackness of ravens is not a coincidence; if things had gone (somewhat) differently, blackness would still be universal

11 Counterfactuals and Lawlikeness The baldness of the school board members is a coincidence; if things had gone differently, baldness would not be universal The blackness of ravens is not a coincidence; if things had gone (somewhat) differently, blackness would still be universal

12 Counterfactual Support A generalization All Fs are G offers counterfactual support if 1. Actual Fs in non-actual circumstances would still be G 2. Non-actual Fs would be G A matter of degree

13 You Care About Counterfactual Support If you care about the distinction between law-like and accidental regularities There are other reasons, too

14 The Empiricist Case Against Caring

15 The Logical Empiricists Rudolf Carnap Hans Reichenbach Carl Hempel

16 The Empiricist Program 1. Science as the only path to knowledge 2. Expunge from science all metaphysical ways of thinking Causation Modality

17 The Actual and the Modal Actual fact: a fact about what happens in the actual (even observable) world Modal fact: facts about possibilities, necessities, what might but did not happen, what could not happen

18 Two Positivist Theses Only the actual is knowable Only the actual has practical significance

19 Only the Actual Has Practical Significance Modal facts cannot make a difference to our realizing the goals of science

20 The Goals of Science 1. Explanation 2. Prediction 3. Control

21 The Empiricist Theory of Explanation Hempel: To understand a phenomenon is to be able to predict the phenomenon (at least in retrospect) In order to explain, learn how to predict

22 The Goals of Science 1. Explanation 2. Prediction 3. Control

23 The Actual and the Modal Aspects of a Regularity 1. Actual: All actual ravens are actually black 2. (a) In some counterfactual circumstances, some actual ravens would be black (b) Some non-actual ravens, if they existed, would be black

24 Prediction and Control Are about actual outcomes Thus they are covered by the actual part of a regularity Nothing else matters In particular, the modal part does not matter

25 The Empiricist Position We may care about counterfactual support but we should not Find a new definition of law-likeness

26 Against the Empiricists But Not Against Empiricism

27 My Claims Paying attention to counterfactual facts can make a difference to prediction and control Even given all empiricist assumptions Because counterfactual facts are at bottom facts about the actual world important facts!

28 Explaining Caring about Counterfactual Support I will put one piece of an explanation in place: explain practical significance of caring What then must be added: evolution? something else?

29 Some Attempts To Care

30 Two Failed Attempts to Explain Caring 1. Planning explanation 2. Induction explanation

31 Planning Explanation

32 Planning Explanation Planning my actions requires counterfactual thinking

33 Planning Explanation When I plan what to do, I select from several possible actions the one that will best realize my goal For each action I ask: what would happen if I were to do that? I decide by the counterfactual answers

34 Empiricist Reply This may be the way that humans actually plan, but there is another way to plan that does not require counterfactual thinking

35 Empiricist Planning Look at actual frequencies Perform the action that most often leads to the goal (other things being equal) Claim: this is for practical purposes identical to counterfactual planning

36 Induction Explanation

37 Induction Explanation In order to learn the actual part of a regularity, I must learn its modal part If the actual part is the practical end, the modal part is the means to that end

38 Inductive Argument From the fact that All observed Fs are G infer that All Fs are G

39 Thesis In order to perform this inference, you must have reason to believe that All observed Fs are G is not an accident or a coincidence So: require counterfactual knowledge

40 Problem The thesis is implausibly strong A better thesis: in order to make the inference, you should lack reason to believe that the G-ness of observed Fs is a coincidence

41 The Theses Contrasted To infer All Fs are G, must have reason to believe that the G-ness of observed Fs is not an accident To infer All Fs are G, must lack reason to believe that the G-ness of observed Fs is an accident

42 Otherwise, How Can Induction Get Started? We cannot have reason to believe that a pattern is not an accident until we have done some inductive inference

43 Let s look for something else

44 What Is Counterfactual Support, Really?

45 How Counterfactuals Work Robert Stalnaker David Lewis Jonathan Bennett

46 How Counterfactuals Work If I were to drop this pen, it would fall to the ground Stalnaker/Lewis: find the closest possible world(s) where the pen is dropped; see if it falls to the ground

47 Closest Possible Worlds? Sounds like the truth or falsity of the counterfactual depends on the spatial structure of some hyper-universe full of nonactual worlds

48 World Proximity The relevant closest possible worlds are those which are like the actual world, except that something goes slightly differently so that the counterfactual antecedent occurs (e.g., the pen is dropped)

49 World Proximity 1. Same history as actual world 2. Something in recent past goes slightly differently, so that pen is dropped 3. Same fundamental laws as actual world Note that (2) implies partial exceptions to (1) and (3): make these very small

50 Very Small The thing that happens, so that the pen is dropped, must 1. Change as little as possible about past history 2. Violate the laws as little as possible

51 Putting it all together

52 Truth for Counterfactuals If A had happened, then B would have happened is true if B happens in all the evaluation worlds for A

53 Evaluation Worlds for A (Lewis, Bennett) 1. Same history as actual world until shortly before occurrence of A 2. Then there is a conservative deviation from actual history that brings about A 3. From then on, actual laws determine what occurs

54 Conservative Deviation (Lewis, Bennett) 1. Happens as close to A as possible 2. Has as few side effects as possible 3. If possible, violates no laws and is not too improbable 4. If violation is necessary, it is discreet

55 Restrictions This story is correct for ordinary counterfactuals

56 Closest Possible Worlds? Sounds like the truth or falsity of the counterfactual depends on the spatial structure of some hyper-universe full of nonactual worlds Wrong

57 Closest Possible Worlds What happens in the closest worlds depends on: 1. Actual history 2. Actual laws 3. Criteria for conservative deviation

58 Closest Possible Worlds What makes counterfactual claims true or false are facts about the actual world Specifically: Ordinary occurrent facts and facts about laws Empiricists are OK with both

59 Thesis If the facts that make a counterfactual claim true are actual facts, then the modal aspect of a regularity is something actual And so can make a difference even in the empiricists sense prediction & control

60 Question Still, even if an interest in counterfactuals is an interest in actual facts, why these actual facts? They look like a rather arbitrary selection

61 The Modal Aspect of a Regularity

62 The Actual and the Modal Aspects of a Regularity 1. Actual: All actual ravens are actually black 2. (a) In some counterfactual circumstances, some actual ravens would be black (b) Some non-actual ravens, if they existed, would be black

63 What Is In the Modal Part? What facts make the raven counterfactuals true?

64 All Ravens Are Black If these two ravens had mated, their offspring would have been black If this raven had been fed a diet of worms, it would still have been black

65 Some Raven Physiology Tyrosinase helps to covert tyrosine to melanin inside the melanosomes Melanosomes are incorporated into feather-producing cells Much physical structure: bundle it together and call it P

66 All Ravens Have P That is, they all have this complicated physical structure that makes them black Include in P the physical structure that ensures that P is passed from parents to offspring

67 A Raven Counterfactual If these two ravens had mated, their offspring would have been black Find the closest worlds where the ravens mate

68 Closest Mating Worlds 1. Same history as actual world until shortly before mating 2. Conservative deviation brings about mating 3. From then on, actual laws apply

69 Closest Mating Worlds 1. Same history, so raven parents have P 2. Deviation brings about mating conservative, so does not undermine the P-hood of the parents 3. Actual laws apply, so parents P-hood causes P-hood, blackness, of offspring

70 Relevant Facts 1. That actual ravens have P 2. Actual laws (by which P-hood replicates itself and causes blackness) 3. Facts in virtue of which the conservative deviations leading to mating do not undermine the P-hood of the parents

71 Relevant Facts P-hood of parents is not undermined by the deviation to mating because: 1. P-hood has causal inertia 2. P-hood is separable from mating (conservatism: minimize side effects)

72 Separability 1. Physical separability: the fact of mating consists of physical facts distinct from P 2. Causal separability: the fact of mating consists of physical facts that are not creating or sustaining causes of P

73 Contrast Case If this raven had had some genetic defects, it still would have been black Blackness not present in every evaluation world because genetic defects not separable from P

74 Why You Care About Counterfactual Support

75 Overview Regularities in the real world are very finegrained Knowledge of reasons for a regularity s counterfactual support provides compact basis for knowledge of fine-grained details

76 Overview We care about regularities that offer counterfactual support because we care about having a compact basis for learning a regularity s fine-grained details

77 Fineness of Grain All ravens are not black Bleached ravens Albino ravens

78 Fineness of Grain All ravens for which conditions Z hold, are black Z is very complex Learning Z is learning fine-grained details about a regularity This is one-half of fineness of grain

79 It Is Good to Know Fine- Grained Details Better prediction; more control To do: show how knowledge of fine-grained details comes from knowledge of the facts that determine counterfactual support

80 What Counterfactual Support Depends On 1. All actual ravens have P 2. Causal inertia of P 3. Causal and physical separability of P from relevant antecedents 4. Causal laws in virtue of which P causes blackness

81 Simpler Case: Causal Antecedents

82 Antecedents Antecedent of a generalization: All Fs are G Antecedent of a counterfactual: If A had occurred, then B would have occurred

83 Fire Burns Fire itself is doing the causing

84 Good Things to Know 1. It is hotter above than beside a fire 2. Short term exposure may not cause damage 3. Damage more severe with length of exposure

85 How To Know Them Don t just memorize factoids. Learn about mechanisms: 1. Damage comes from heat accumulation 2. Heat accumulation falls off with distance 3. Heat rises

86 What Counterfactual Support Depends On 1. All actual ravens have P 2. Causal inertia of P 3. Causal and physical separability of P from relevant antecedents 4. Causal laws in virtue of which P causes blackness

87 Social Generalizations If you have more material possessions than other people, they will tend to envy you

88 Non-Causal Antecedents

89 Roasted Raven Is Good to Eat The antecedent, ravenhood, does not do the causing It is some physical property P of ravens that makes them edible

90 To Know Fine-Grained Details 1. Learn conditions under which ravens have P 2. Learn conditions under which P has its characteristic effect (taste, nutrition)

91 To Know Fine-Grained Details 1. Learn conditions under which ravens have P 2. Learn conditions under which P has its characteristic effect (taste, nutrition)

92 Learning Fine-Grained Details In conditions Z, ravens have P How to learn Z? Method 1: learn about the mechanism that causes ravens to have P Problem: P is unobservable

93 Learning Fine-Grained Details Method 2: Assume that most ravens in normal circumstances have P Worry about the final phase, where the raven is removed from normal circumstances: killing, dressing, cooking Do these actions interfere with P?

94 It s All About Interference What actions interfere with or undermine a raven s P-hood? Those that manipulate things that are not separable from P

95 What Counterfactual Support Depends On 1. All actual ravens have P 2. Causal inertia of P 3. Causal and physical separability of P from relevant antecedents 4. Causal laws in virtue of which P causes blackness

96 Summary

97 Assumptions 1. All actual ravens have P 2. Causal inertia of P 3. Causal and physical separability of P from relevant antecedents 4. Causal laws in virtue of which P causes blackness

98 Source of Knowledge of Fine- Grained Details 1. All actual ravens have P 2. Causal inertia of P 3. Causal and physical separability of P from relevant antecedents 4. Causal laws in virtue of which P causes blackness

99 Conclusion, Part 1 To learn or predict fine-grained details of a regularity, learn the facts in virtue of which it provides counterfactual support These are actual facts that predict other actual facts

100 Conclusion, Part 2 Pay special attention to regularities that provide counterfactual support, because with these regularities, there is a compact basis for learning fine-grained details

101 Michael Strevens Philosophy Department New York University

Counterfactual Support: Why Care?

Counterfactual Support: Why Care? Counterfactual Support: Why Care? Michael Strevens Draft of October 2013 Abstract It seems very important to us whether or not a generalization offers counterfactual support but why? Surely what happens

More information

Tooley on backward causation

Tooley on backward causation Tooley on backward causation Paul Noordhof Michael Tooley has argued that, if backward causation (of a certain kind) is possible, then a Stalnaker-Lewis account of the truth conditions of counterfactuals

More information

Précis of Modality and Explanatory Reasoning

Précis of Modality and Explanatory Reasoning Précis of Modality and Explanatory Reasoning The aim of Modality and Explanatory Reasoning (MER) is to shed light on metaphysical necessity and the broader class of modal properties to which it belongs.

More information

Scientific Explanation- Causation and Unification

Scientific Explanation- Causation and Unification Scientific Explanation- Causation and Unification By Wesley Salmon Analysis by Margarita Georgieva, PSTS student, number 0102458 Van Lochemstraat 9-17 7511 EG Enschede Final Paper for Philosophy of Science

More information

Three Themes. A Historical Tradition. Events and Times: A Case Study in Means-ends Metaphysics. Immanuel Kant. Metaphysics: Methodology

Three Themes. A Historical Tradition. Events and Times: A Case Study in Means-ends Metaphysics. Immanuel Kant. Metaphysics: Methodology Three Themes Metaphysics: The nature of events The relation between events and time Events and Times: A Case Study in Means-ends Metaphysics Christopher Hitchcock California Institute of Technology Methodology

More information

02. Explanation. Part 1.

02. Explanation. Part 1. 02. Explanation. Part 1. I. Introduction Topics: I. Introduction II. Deductive-Nomological (DN) Model III. Laws: Preliminary Sketch First blush: A scientific explanation is an attempt to render understandable

More information

Indicative conditionals

Indicative conditionals Indicative conditionals PHIL 43916 November 14, 2012 1. Three types of conditionals... 1 2. Material conditionals... 1 3. Indicatives and possible worlds... 4 4. Conditionals and adverbs of quantification...

More information

Philosophy 5340 Epistemology. Topic 3: Analysis, Analytically Basic Concepts, Direct Acquaintance, and Theoretical Terms. Part 2: Theoretical Terms

Philosophy 5340 Epistemology. Topic 3: Analysis, Analytically Basic Concepts, Direct Acquaintance, and Theoretical Terms. Part 2: Theoretical Terms Philosophy 5340 Epistemology Topic 3: Analysis, Analytically Basic Concepts, Direct Acquaintance, and Theoretical Terms Part 2: Theoretical Terms 1. What Apparatus Is Available for Carrying out Analyses?

More information

Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic. Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2013

Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic. Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2013 Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2013 Class #4 Philosophy Friday #1: Conditionals Marcus, Symbolic Logic, Fall 2013, Slide 1 Natural-Language Conditionals A. Indicative

More information

7.1 Significance of question: are there laws in S.S.? (Why care?) Possible answers:

7.1 Significance of question: are there laws in S.S.? (Why care?) Possible answers: I. Roberts: There are no laws of the social sciences Social sciences = sciences involving human behaviour (Economics, Psychology, Sociology, Political Science) 7.1 Significance of question: are there laws

More information

Physically Contingent Laws and Counterfactual Support

Physically Contingent Laws and Counterfactual Support Physically Contingent Laws and Counterfactual Support Michael Strevens Philosopher's Imprint 8(8) Abstract The generalizations found in biology, psychology, sociology, and other highlevel sciences are

More information

Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic. Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2014

Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic. Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2014 Philosophy 240 Symbolic Logic Russell Marcus Hamilton College Fall 2014 Class #19: Logic and the Philosophy of Science Marcus, Symbolic Logic, Fall 2014: Logic and the Philosophy of Science, Slide 1 Three

More information

David Lewis. Void and Object

David Lewis. Void and Object David Lewis Void and Object Menzies Theory of Causation Causal relation is an intrinsic relation between two events -- it is logically determined by the natural properties and relations of the events.

More information

Critical Notice: Bas van Fraassen, Scientific Representation: Paradoxes of Perspective Oxford University Press, 2008, xiv pages

Critical Notice: Bas van Fraassen, Scientific Representation: Paradoxes of Perspective Oxford University Press, 2008, xiv pages Critical Notice: Bas van Fraassen, Scientific Representation: Paradoxes of Perspective Oxford University Press, 2008, xiv + 408 pages by Bradley Monton June 24, 2009 It probably goes without saying that

More information

In Newcomb s problem, an agent is faced with a choice between acts that

In Newcomb s problem, an agent is faced with a choice between acts that Aporia vol. 23 no. 2 2013 Counterfactuals and Causal Decision Theory Kevin Dorst In Newcomb s problem, an agent is faced with a choice between acts that are highly correlated with certain outcomes, but

More information

The Ontology of Counter Factual Causality and Conditional

The Ontology of Counter Factual Causality and Conditional Philosophy Study, ISSN 2159-5313 July 2014, Vol. 4, No. 7, 492-496. doi: 10.17265/2159-5313/2014.07.005 D DAVID PUBLISHING The Ontology of Counter Factual Causality and Conditional Maduabuchi Dukor Nnamdi

More information

Laws of Nature. What the heck are they?

Laws of Nature. What the heck are they? Laws of Nature What the heck are they? 1 The relation between causes and laws is rather tricky (and interesting!) Many questions are raised, such as: 1. Do laws cause things to happen? 2. What are laws,

More information

(1) If Bush had not won the last election, then Nader would have won it.

(1) If Bush had not won the last election, then Nader would have won it. 24.221 Metaphysics Counterfactuals When the truth functional material conditional (or ) is introduced, it is normally glossed with the English expression If..., then.... However, if this is the correct

More information

Regularity analyses have failed; it is time to give up and try something else: a counterfactual analysis.

Regularity analyses have failed; it is time to give up and try something else: a counterfactual analysis. David Lewis Causation, in: Papers II p. 160: Causation is not the only causal relation. Regularity analyses have failed; it is time to give up and try something else: a counterfactual analysis. p. 161:

More information

LECTURE 15: SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION I

LECTURE 15: SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION I David Youngberg BSAD 20 Montgomery College LECTURE 5: SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION I I. From Correlation to Regression a. Recall last class when we discussed two basic types of correlation (positive and negative).

More information

Solving with Absolute Value

Solving with Absolute Value Solving with Absolute Value Who knew two little lines could cause so much trouble? Ask someone to solve the equation 3x 2 = 7 and they ll say No problem! Add just two little lines, and ask them to solve

More information

CAUSATION CAUSATION. Chapter 10. Non-Humean Reductionism

CAUSATION CAUSATION. Chapter 10. Non-Humean Reductionism CAUSATION CAUSATION Chapter 10 Non-Humean Reductionism Humean states of affairs were characterized recursively in chapter 2, the basic idea being that distinct Humean states of affairs cannot stand in

More information

The Inductive Proof Template

The Inductive Proof Template CS103 Handout 24 Winter 2016 February 5, 2016 Guide to Inductive Proofs Induction gives a new way to prove results about natural numbers and discrete structures like games, puzzles, and graphs. All of

More information

DISCUSSION CENSORED VISION. Bruce Le Catt

DISCUSSION CENSORED VISION. Bruce Le Catt Australasian Journal of Philosophy Vol. 60, No. 2; June 1982 DISCUSSION CENSORED VISION Bruce Le Catt When we see in the normal way, the scene before the eyes causes matching visual experience. And it

More information

PHI Searle against Turing 1

PHI Searle against Turing 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 PHI2391: Confirmation Review Session Date & Time :2014-12-03 SMD 226 12:00-13:00 ME 14.0 General problems with the DN-model! The DN-model has a fundamental problem that it shares with Hume!

More information

Counterfactuals and comparative similarity

Counterfactuals and comparative similarity Counterfactuals and comparative similarity Jeremy Goodman Draft of February 23, 2015 Abstract An analysis of counterfactuals in terms of the comparative similarity of possible worlds is widely attributed

More information

Conceivability and Modal Knowledge

Conceivability and Modal Knowledge 1 3 Conceivability and Modal Knowledge Christopher Hill ( 2006 ) provides an account of modal knowledge that is set in a broader context of arguing against the view that conceivability provides epistemic

More information

Philosophy 4310: Conditionals Spring 2017

Philosophy 4310: Conditionals Spring 2017 Philosophy 4310: Conditionals Spring 2017 INSTRUCTOR OFFICE E-MAIL OFFICE HOURS Joel Velasco Eng/Phil 265G joel.velasco@ttu.edu T, W, Th 11-12 Any competent speaker of English can deploy and understand

More information

Physicalism Feb , 2014

Physicalism Feb , 2014 Physicalism Feb. 12 14, 2014 Overview I Main claim Three kinds of physicalism The argument for physicalism Objections against physicalism Hempel s dilemma The knowledge argument Absent or inverted qualia

More information

The paradox of knowability, the knower, and the believer

The paradox of knowability, the knower, and the believer The paradox of knowability, the knower, and the believer Last time, when discussing the surprise exam paradox, we discussed the possibility that some claims could be true, but not knowable by certain individuals

More information

Uni- and Bivariate Power

Uni- and Bivariate Power Uni- and Bivariate Power Copyright 2002, 2014, J. Toby Mordkoff Note that the relationship between risk and power is unidirectional. Power depends on risk, but risk is completely independent of power.

More information

In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization

In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization In Defense of Jeffrey Conditionalization Franz Huber Department of Philosophy University of Toronto Please do not cite! December 31, 2013 Contents 1 Introduction 2 2 Weisberg s Paradox 3 3 Jeffrey Conditionalization

More information

Feyerabend: How to be a good empiricist

Feyerabend: How to be a good empiricist Feyerabend: How to be a good empiricist Critique of Nagel s model of reduction within a larger critique of the logical empiricist view of scientific progress. Logical empiricism: associated with figures

More information

SIMILARITY IS A BAD GUIDE TO COUNTERFACTUAL TRUTH. The Lewis-Stalnaker logic systems [2] account for a wide range of intuitions about

SIMILARITY IS A BAD GUIDE TO COUNTERFACTUAL TRUTH. The Lewis-Stalnaker logic systems [2] account for a wide range of intuitions about SIMILARITY IS A BAD GUIDE TO COUNTERFACTUAL TRUTH ABSTRACT. The most popular theory of how to evaluate counterfactuals is to use the Lewis- Stalnaker logic together with some reasonably tractable refinement

More information

Appendix A Lewis s Counterfactuals

Appendix A Lewis s Counterfactuals Appendix A Lewis s Counterfactuals I will briefly describe David Lewis s possible world semantics of counterfactual conditionals (1973, p. 13). Let us understand a possible world simply as a way things

More information

Lange's Counterfactualism

Lange's Counterfactualism Lange's Counterfactualism Reference Lange, Marc (2009). Laws and Lawmakers: science, metaphysics and the laws of nature. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Rodrigo Cid Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

More information

Hempel s Models of Scientific Explanation

Hempel s Models of Scientific Explanation Background Hempel s Models of Scientific Explanation 1. Two quick distinctions. 2. Laws. a) Explanations of particular events vs. explanation of general laws. b) Deductive vs. statistical explanations.

More information

Lecture 12: Arguments for the absolutist and relationist views of space

Lecture 12: Arguments for the absolutist and relationist views of space 12.1 432018 PHILOSOPHY OF PHYSICS (Spring 2002) Lecture 12: Arguments for the absolutist and relationist views of space Preliminary reading: Sklar, pp. 19-25. Now that we have seen Newton s and Leibniz

More information

What if Every "If Only" Statement Were True?: The Logic of Counterfactuals

What if Every If Only Statement Were True?: The Logic of Counterfactuals Michigan State University College of Law Digital Commons at Michigan State University College of Law Faculty Publications 1-1-2008 What if Every "If Only" Statement Were True?: The Logic of Counterfactuals

More information

145 Philosophy of Science

145 Philosophy of Science Laws of nature Christian Wüthrich http://philosophy.ucsd.edu/faculty/wuthrich/ 145 Philosophy of Science What is a law of nature? Alex Rosenberg (2012). Why laws explain. In his Philosophy of Science:

More information

Relevant Logic. Daniel Bonevac. March 20, 2013

Relevant Logic. Daniel Bonevac. March 20, 2013 March 20, 2013 The earliest attempts to devise a relevance logic that avoided the problem of explosion centered on the conditional. FDE, however, has no conditional operator, or a very weak one. If we

More information

Lecture 6 : Induction DRAFT

Lecture 6 : Induction DRAFT CS/Math 40: Introduction to Discrete Mathematics /8/011 Lecture 6 : Induction Instructor: Dieter van Melkebeek Scribe: Dalibor Zelený DRAFT Last time we began discussing proofs. We mentioned some proof

More information

Lewis 2 Definitions of T-terms

Lewis 2 Definitions of T-terms Lewis 2 Definitions of T-terms (pp. 431 438, 445 446) Patrick Maher Philosophy 471 Fall 2006 Review The Ramsey sentence of T says T is realized: x 1... x n [x 1... x n ] The Carnap sentence says if T is

More information

Structuralism and the Limits of Skepticism. David Chalmers Thalheimer Lecture 3

Structuralism and the Limits of Skepticism. David Chalmers Thalheimer Lecture 3 Structuralism and the Limits of Skepticism David Chalmers Thalheimer Lecture 3 Skepticism and Realism I Skepticism: We don t know whether external things exist Realism: External things exist Anti-Realism:

More information

Commentary. Regression toward the mean: a fresh look at an old story

Commentary. Regression toward the mean: a fresh look at an old story Regression toward the mean: a fresh look at an old story Back in time, when I took a statistics course from Professor G., I encountered regression toward the mean for the first time. a I did not understand

More information

Weighted Majority and the Online Learning Approach

Weighted Majority and the Online Learning Approach Statistical Techniques in Robotics (16-81, F12) Lecture#9 (Wednesday September 26) Weighted Majority and the Online Learning Approach Lecturer: Drew Bagnell Scribe:Narek Melik-Barkhudarov 1 Figure 1: Drew

More information

Causal Reasoning. Note. Being g is necessary for being f iff being f is sufficient for being g

Causal Reasoning. Note. Being g is necessary for being f iff being f is sufficient for being g 145 Often need to identify the cause of a phenomenon we ve observed. Perhaps phenomenon is something we d like to reverse (why did car stop?). Perhaps phenomenon is one we d like to reproduce (how did

More information

HOW TO WRITE PROOFS. Dr. Min Ru, University of Houston

HOW TO WRITE PROOFS. Dr. Min Ru, University of Houston HOW TO WRITE PROOFS Dr. Min Ru, University of Houston One of the most difficult things you will attempt in this course is to write proofs. A proof is to give a legal (logical) argument or justification

More information

1 Multiple Choice. PHIL110 Philosophy of Science. Exam May 10, Basic Concepts. 1.2 Inductivism. Name:

1 Multiple Choice. PHIL110 Philosophy of Science. Exam May 10, Basic Concepts. 1.2 Inductivism. Name: PHIL110 Philosophy of Science Exam May 10, 2016 Name: Directions: The following exam consists of 24 questions, for a total of 100 points with 0 bonus points. Read each question carefully (note: answers

More information

Reading 5 : Induction

Reading 5 : Induction CS/Math 40: Introduction to Discrete Mathematics Fall 015 Instructors: Beck Hasti and Gautam Prakriya Reading 5 : Induction In the last reading we began discussing proofs. We mentioned some proof paradigms

More information

Lecture 14, Thurs March 2: Nonlocal Games

Lecture 14, Thurs March 2: Nonlocal Games Lecture 14, Thurs March 2: Nonlocal Games Last time we talked about the CHSH Game, and how no classical strategy lets Alice and Bob win it more than 75% of the time. Today we ll see how, by using entanglement,

More information

3 The Semantics of the Propositional Calculus

3 The Semantics of the Propositional Calculus 3 The Semantics of the Propositional Calculus 1. Interpretations Formulas of the propositional calculus express statement forms. In chapter two, we gave informal descriptions of the meanings of the logical

More information

In Defence of a Naïve Conditional Epistemology

In Defence of a Naïve Conditional Epistemology In Defence of a Naïve Conditional Epistemology Andrew Bacon 28th June 2013 1 The data You pick a card at random from a standard deck of cards. How confident should I be about asserting the following sentences?

More information

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm Franz Huber Department of Philosophy University of Toronto franz.huber@utoronto.ca http://huber.blogs.chass.utoronto.ca/ July 7, 2014; final

More information

Scientific Explanation

Scientific Explanation Scientific Explanation Terminology A scientific explanation will be trying to explain why some fact is true or some phenomenon occurred. Call that thing the thing to be explained the explanandum. The explanation

More information

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm

For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm For True Conditionalizers Weisberg s Paradox is a False Alarm Franz Huber Abstract: Weisberg (2009) introduces a phenomenon he terms perceptual undermining He argues that it poses a problem for Jeffrey

More information

First-Degree Entailment

First-Degree Entailment March 5, 2013 Relevance Logics Relevance logics are non-classical logics that try to avoid the paradoxes of material and strict implication: p (q p) p (p q) (p q) (q r) (p p) q p (q q) p (q q) Counterintuitive?

More information

Induction, confirmation, and underdetermination

Induction, confirmation, and underdetermination Induction, confirmation, and underdetermination Christian Wüthrich http://philosophy.ucsd.edu/faculty/wuthrich/ 145 Philosophy of Science The Mother of All Problems... Hume s problem of induction A brief

More information

Cartwright: Do the Laws of Physics State the Facts?

Cartwright: Do the Laws of Physics State the Facts? Cartwright: Do the Laws of Physics State the Facts? Introduction Facticity view of laws: Laws of nature describe the facts Paradigm: fundamental laws of physics (e.g., Maxwell s equations) Dilemma: If

More information

CAUSATION. Chapter 5. Humean Reductionism - Counterfactual Approaches

CAUSATION. Chapter 5. Humean Reductionism - Counterfactual Approaches CAUSATION Chapter 5 Humean Reductionism - Counterfactual Approaches A second important reductionist approach attempts to analyze causation in terms of counterfactuals. Such approaches come in different

More information

Lewis Counterfactual Theory of Causation

Lewis Counterfactual Theory of Causation Lewis Counterfactual Theory of Causation Summary An account only of deterministic, token causation. Causation = counterfactual dependence + right semantics for counterfactuals + transitivity E depends

More information

Of Miracles and Interventions

Of Miracles and Interventions Of Miracles and Interventions Abstract Lewis (1973, 1979) claims that, for the purposes of delivering a counterfactual analysis of causation, counterfactuals of the form if c hadn t occurred, then e wouldn

More information

MODAL LOGIC WITH SUBJUNCTIVE MARKERS: A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON RIGID DESIGNATION

MODAL LOGIC WITH SUBJUNCTIVE MARKERS: A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON RIGID DESIGNATION MODAL LOGIC WITH SUBJUNCTIVE MARKERS: A NEW PERSPECTIVE ON RIGID DESIGNATION Helge Rückert Department of Philosophy University of Saarbrücken, Germany Abstract: According to Kripke

More information

Hedging Your Ifs and Vice Versa

Hedging Your Ifs and Vice Versa Hedging Your Ifs and Vice Versa Kai von Fintel and Anthony S. Gillies MIT and Rutgers November 21 University of Latvia Ramsey s Test If two people are arguing If p will q? and are both in doubt as to p,

More information

Social Science Counterfactuals. Julian Reiss, Durham University

Social Science Counterfactuals. Julian Reiss, Durham University Social Science Counterfactuals Julian Reiss, Durham University Social Science Counterfactuals Julian Reiss, Durham University Counterfactuals in Social Science Stand-ins for causal claims about singular

More information

Antecedents of counterfactuals violate de Morgan s law

Antecedents of counterfactuals violate de Morgan s law Antecedents of counterfactuals violate de Morgan s law Lucas Champollion champollion@nyu.edu Joint work with Ivano Ciardelli and Linmin Zhang Fourth Workshop on Natural Language and Computer Science (NLCS

More information

ON THE NOTION OF PRIMITIVE ONTOLOGY. Andrea Oldofredi Université de Lausanne MCMP (LMU) 29 Oct. 2014

ON THE NOTION OF PRIMITIVE ONTOLOGY. Andrea Oldofredi Université de Lausanne MCMP (LMU) 29 Oct. 2014 ON THE NOTION OF PRIMITIVE ONTOLOGY Andrea Oldofredi Université de Lausanne MCMP (LMU) 29 Oct. 2014 OUTLINE Methodology Primitive Ontology Local Beables Primitive Ontology The Role of Mathematics in Physical

More information

An Argument Against the Unification Account of Explanation

An Argument Against the Unification Account of Explanation An Argument Against the Unification Account of Explanation Michael Strevens Draft of December 2009 Abstract Unification accounts of explanation equate unifying power with explanatory power; you might expect,

More information

Volume vs. Diameter. Teacher Lab Discussion. Overview. Picture, Data Table, and Graph

Volume vs. Diameter. Teacher Lab Discussion. Overview. Picture, Data Table, and Graph 5 6 7 Middle olume Length/olume vs. Diameter, Investigation page 1 of olume vs. Diameter Teacher Lab Discussion Overview Figure 1 In this experiment we investigate the relationship between the diameter

More information

Faculty of Philosophy, University of Cambridge Michaelmas Term Part IA: Metaphysics Causation

Faculty of Philosophy, University of Cambridge Michaelmas Term Part IA: Metaphysics Causation Michaelmas Term 2013 Brief description of lectures These lectures will introduce the metaphysics of causation (or causality, or cause and effect). After a brief introduction to the topic, and some historical

More information

Lecture 34 Woodward on Manipulation and Causation

Lecture 34 Woodward on Manipulation and Causation Lecture 34 Woodward on Manipulation and Causation Patrick Maher Philosophy 270 Spring 2010 The book This book defends what I call a manipulationist or interventionist account of explanation and causation.

More information

Introduction to Proofs

Introduction to Proofs Introduction to Proofs Many times in economics we will need to prove theorems to show that our theories can be supported by speci c assumptions. While economics is an observational science, we use mathematics

More information

Tools for causal analysis and philosophical theories of causation. Isabelle Drouet (IHPST)

Tools for causal analysis and philosophical theories of causation. Isabelle Drouet (IHPST) Tools for causal analysis and philosophical theories of causation Isabelle Drouet (IHPST) 1 What is philosophy of causation? 1. What is causation? What characterizes these relations that we label "causal"?

More information

Notes on arithmetic. 1. Representation in base B

Notes on arithmetic. 1. Representation in base B Notes on arithmetic The Babylonians that is to say, the people that inhabited what is now southern Iraq for reasons not entirely clear to us, ued base 60 in scientific calculation. This offers us an excuse

More information

Chapter 2. Mathematical Reasoning. 2.1 Mathematical Models

Chapter 2. Mathematical Reasoning. 2.1 Mathematical Models Contents Mathematical Reasoning 3.1 Mathematical Models........................... 3. Mathematical Proof............................ 4..1 Structure of Proofs........................ 4.. Direct Method..........................

More information

Presuppositions (introductory comments)

Presuppositions (introductory comments) 1 Presuppositions (introductory comments) Some examples (1) a. The person who broke the typewriter was Sam. b. It was Sam who broke the typewriter. c. John screwed up again. d. John likes Mary, too. e.

More information

Building a Computer Adder

Building a Computer Adder Logic Gates are used to translate Boolean logic into circuits. In the abstract it is clear that we can build AND gates that perform the AND function and OR gates that perform the OR function and so on.

More information

Contingent Existence and Iterated Modality

Contingent Existence and Iterated Modality !1 Contingent Existence and Iterated Modality CIAN DORR Boris Kment s Modality and Explanatory Reasoning is a rich and rewarding book. Along the way to his conclusions about the cognitive function of modal

More information

Module 03 Lecture 14 Inferential Statistics ANOVA and TOI

Module 03 Lecture 14 Inferential Statistics ANOVA and TOI Introduction of Data Analytics Prof. Nandan Sudarsanam and Prof. B Ravindran Department of Management Studies and Department of Computer Science and Engineering Indian Institute of Technology, Madras Module

More information

Proving Completeness for Nested Sequent Calculi 1

Proving Completeness for Nested Sequent Calculi 1 Proving Completeness for Nested Sequent Calculi 1 Melvin Fitting abstract. Proving the completeness of classical propositional logic by using maximal consistent sets is perhaps the most common method there

More information

Metaphysics of Modality

Metaphysics of Modality Metaphysics of Modality Lecture 3: Abstract Modal Realism/Actualism Daisy Dixon dd426 1. Introduction Possible worlds are abstract and actual 1. Introduction Possible worlds are abstract and actual There

More information

Published in Analysis, 2004, 64 (1), pp

Published in Analysis, 2004, 64 (1), pp Published in Analysis, 2004, 64 (1), pp. 72-81. The Bundle Theory is compatible with distinct but indiscernible particulars GONZALO RODRIGUEZ-PEREYRA 1. The Bundle Theory I shall discuss is a theory about

More information

An analogy from Calculus: limits

An analogy from Calculus: limits COMP 250 Fall 2018 35 - big O Nov. 30, 2018 We have seen several algorithms in the course, and we have loosely characterized their runtimes in terms of the size n of the input. We say that the algorithm

More information

Handout 8: Bennett, Chapter 10

Handout 8: Bennett, Chapter 10 Handout 8: Bennett, Chapter 10 Philosophy 691: Conditionals Northern Illinois University Fall 2011 Geoff Pynn terminology 1. Chapters 10-18 concern subjunctive conditionals, which Bennett distinguishes

More information

Empirically Adequate but Observably False Theories

Empirically Adequate but Observably False Theories Empirically Adequate but Observably False Theories Sebastian Lutz Preprint: 2013 09 26 1 Introduction According to van Fraassen ( 1980, 8, emphasis removed), scientifc realism is the view that [s]cience

More information

Counterfactuals as Strict Conditionals

Counterfactuals as Strict Conditionals Counterfactuals as Strict Conditionals University of Turin BIBLID [0873-626X (2015) 41; pp. 165-191] Abstract This paper defends the thesis that counterfactuals are strict conditionals. Its purpose is

More information

A New Conception of Science

A New Conception of Science A New Conception of Science Nicholas Maxwell Published in PhysicsWorld 13 No. 8, August 2000, pp. 17-18. When scientists choose one theory over another, they reject out of hand all those that are not simple,

More information

Carl Hempel Laws and Their Role in Scientific Explanation Two basic requirements for scientific explanations

Carl Hempel Laws and Their Role in Scientific Explanation Two basic requirements for scientific explanations Carl Hempel Laws and Their Role in Scientific Explanation 1 5.1 Two basic requirements for scientific explanations The aim of the natural sciences is explanation insight rather than fact gathering. Man

More information

Intermediate Logic. Natural Deduction for TFL

Intermediate Logic. Natural Deduction for TFL Intermediate Logic Lecture Two Natural Deduction for TFL Rob Trueman rob.trueman@york.ac.uk University of York The Trouble with Truth Tables Natural Deduction for TFL The Trouble with Truth Tables The

More information

3. Nomic vs causal vs dispositional essentialism. 1. If quidditism is true, then properties could have swapped their nomic roles.

3. Nomic vs causal vs dispositional essentialism. 1. If quidditism is true, then properties could have swapped their nomic roles. Nomic Essentialism Ted Sider Structuralism seminar 1. Natural necessity Law of nature Causation Counterfactual Disposition Chance Rough unifying idea: these are modal, in that they involve tendencies and

More information

1 Propositional Logic

1 Propositional Logic CS 2800, Logic and Computation Propositional Logic Lectures Pete Manolios Version: 384 Spring 2011 1 Propositional Logic The study of logic was initiated by the ancient Greeks, who were concerned with

More information

Lecture Notes on Proofs & Arithmetic

Lecture Notes on Proofs & Arithmetic 15-424: Foundations of Cyber-Physical Systems Lecture Notes on Proofs & Arithmetic André Platzer Carnegie Mellon University Lecture 9 1 Introduction Lecture 8 on Events & Delays discussed and developed

More information

The Cosmological Argument

The Cosmological Argument The Cosmological Argument Cosmological Argument Cosmological arguments attempt to prove that the universe requires a cause (and that this cause is what we call God ). All cosmological arguments require

More information

LECTURE 2: SIMPLE REGRESSION I

LECTURE 2: SIMPLE REGRESSION I LECTURE 2: SIMPLE REGRESSION I 2 Introducing Simple Regression Introducing Simple Regression 3 simple regression = regression with 2 variables y dependent variable explained variable response variable

More information

Ella failed to drop the class. Ella dropped the class.

Ella failed to drop the class. Ella dropped the class. Propositional logic In many cases, a sentence is built up from one or more simpler sentences. To see what follows from such a complicated sentence, it is helpful to distinguish the simpler sentences from

More information

Chapter 1 Review of Equations and Inequalities

Chapter 1 Review of Equations and Inequalities Chapter 1 Review of Equations and Inequalities Part I Review of Basic Equations Recall that an equation is an expression with an equal sign in the middle. Also recall that, if a question asks you to solve

More information

Seminaar Abstrakte Wiskunde Seminar in Abstract Mathematics Lecture notes in progress (27 March 2010)

Seminaar Abstrakte Wiskunde Seminar in Abstract Mathematics Lecture notes in progress (27 March 2010) http://math.sun.ac.za/amsc/sam Seminaar Abstrakte Wiskunde Seminar in Abstract Mathematics 2009-2010 Lecture notes in progress (27 March 2010) Contents 2009 Semester I: Elements 5 1. Cartesian product

More information

Ratios, Proportions, Unit Conversions, and the Factor-Label Method

Ratios, Proportions, Unit Conversions, and the Factor-Label Method Ratios, Proportions, Unit Conversions, and the Factor-Label Method Math 0, Littlefield I don t know why, but presentations about ratios and proportions are often confused and fragmented. The one in your

More information

HPS 1653 / PHIL 1610 Introduction to the Philosophy of Science

HPS 1653 / PHIL 1610 Introduction to the Philosophy of Science HPS 1653 / PHIL 1610 Introduction to the Philosophy of Science Laws of Nature Adam Caulton adam.caulton@gmail.com Wednesday 19 November 2014 Recommended reading Chalmers (2013), What is this thing called

More information

Measurement: still a problem in standard quantum theory

Measurement: still a problem in standard quantum theory Measurement: still a problem in standard quantum theory R. E. Kastner August 20, 2013 - xarqiv Abstract It is argued that recent claims by A. Hobson that there is no measurement problem are based on taking

More information