Pheno family reunion, 4/2008

Transcription

1 Stuff SFitter: Combining Stuff University of Edinburgh Pheno family reunion, 4/2008

2 Stuff Outline Phenomenology in the Underlying parameters ed SFitter

3 Stuff Phenomenology in the All hopes on the LHC find light Higgs? find new physics stabilizing Higgs mass? see dark matter candidate? early data: playing a fun game understood data: test TeV-scale models Particle theory in the test huge number of hypotheses [given too much time for model builders] forget about model independent analyses [tough LHC environment] link to other observations [DM+Tevatron propaganda uncovered: Hooper, TP, Vallinotto] reconstuct TeV-scale Lagrangian Role of LHC beyond inclusive searches [that was Tevatron] millions of new strongly interacting particles (1) try to survive QCD (2) aim at underlying theory χ 2o χ 1+ ν ν t 1t 1 χ 2o q χ 2o g Prospino2 (T Plehn) σ tot [pb]: pp g g, q q, t 1t 1, χ 2 o χ 1+, ν ν, χ 2o g, χ 2o q q q g g S = 14 TeV NLO LO m [GeV]

4 Stuff Underlying parameters From kinematics to weak scale parameters parameters: weak-scale Lagrangian [Fittino; SFitter: Lafaye, TP, Rauch, Zerwas] measurements: kinematic endpoints, branching ratios, rates [Prospino2] B decays, (g 2) µ, dark matter, e-w precision data... errors: general correlation, statistics & systematics & theory [flat theory errors!] problem in grid/fit: no local/global maximum problem in physics: secondary maxima

5 Stuff Underlying parameters From kinematics to weak scale parameters parameters: weak-scale Lagrangian [Fittino; SFitter: Lafaye, TP, Rauch, Zerwas] measurements: kinematic endpoints, branching ratios, rates [Prospino2] B decays, (g 2) µ, dark matter, e-w precision data... errors: general correlation, statistics & systematics & theory [flat theory errors!] problem in grid/fit: no local/global maximum problem in physics: secondary maxima Probability maps of new physics [Baltz,...; Roszkowski,...; Allanach,...; SFitter] undisputed: exclusive likelihood map p(d m) over m [hard part] general problem: remove directions Bayesian: p(m d) p(d m) p(m) with theory bias p(m) How does dark matter annihilate/couple? frequentist: best fitting point max m p(d m) Which is the most likely parameter point? [Allanach, Cranmer, Lester, Weber] m 0 (TeV) M 1/2 (TeV) L/L(max)

6 Stuff Underlying parameters From kinematics to weak scale parameters parameters: weak-scale Lagrangian [Fittino; SFitter: Lafaye, TP, Rauch, Zerwas] measurements: kinematic endpoints, branching ratios, rates [Prospino2] B decays, (g 2) µ, dark matter, e-w precision data... errors: general correlation, statistics & systematics & theory [flat theory errors!] problem in grid/fit: no local/global maximum problem in physics: secondary maxima Toy model: MSUGRA map from LHC [LHC endpoints with free y t ] weighted Markov chains [similar to: Ferrenberg & Swendsen] N P bin(p 0) = P Ni=1 1/p SFitter output #1: fully exclusive likelihood map SFitter output #2: ranked list of local maxima correlations and seconday maxima mean need for more measurements m t A χ 2 m 0 m 1/2 tan β A 0 µ m t 0.3e

7 Stuff Underlying parameters MSSM map in [SFitter+friends] from 6 to 19 parameter dimensions [killing grids, Minuit, laptop style fits...] SFitter outputs still the same, best points degenerate LHC edges: sign(µ) unknown [Allanach...] µ e+08 1e M 1 LHC edges: tan β from m h believe based and poor [even in msugra] tan(β) m 0 LHC rates: tan β from heavy Higgs tough [Kinnunen, Lehti, Moortgat, Nikitenko, Spira] flavor physics finally of BSM use? [Polesello in Cern flavor-lhc report] 1e

8 Stuff ed SFitter physics in the traditional flavor observables: BR(B s µµ) tan 6 β [SFitter + Jäger, Spannowsky] (g 2) µ tan β [SFitter + Alexander, Kreiss] serious physics: errors the key

9 Stuff ed SFitter physics in the traditional flavor observables: BR(B s µµ) tan 6 β [SFitter + Jäger, Spannowsky] (g 2) µ tan β [SFitter + Alexander, Kreiss] serious physics: errors the key BR(B s µµ) combined with stop chargino sector [Hisano, Kawagoe, Nojiri] 7% error on f Bs by 2015 crucial [Della Morte, Del Debbio] perturbative effects secondary no theory error BR/BR = 15% true best error best error tan β M A M M M µ M t,r

10 Stuff ed SFitter physics in the traditional flavor observables: BR(B s µµ) tan 6 β [SFitter + Jäger, Spannowsky] (g 2) µ tan β [SFitter + Alexander, Kreiss] serious physics: errors the key BR(B s µµ) combined with stop chargino sector [Hisano, Kawagoe, Nojiri] 7% error on f Bs by 2015 crucial [Della Morte, Del Debbio] perturbative effects secondary no theory error BR/BR = 15% true best error best error tan β M A M M M µ M t,r (g 2) µ combined with slepton neutralino sector [review: Stöckinger] already current precision promising LHC LHC (g 2) SPS1a tan β 10.0± ± M ± ± M ± ± M ± ± µ 350.5± ± M µ,r 135.0± ± M q,r 507.3± ± technical fitting/scanning issues solved and implemented in SFitter work to be done, community focus not helpful?

11 Stuff Physics in the understand e-w symmetry breaking confirm new physics [dark matter] complete Standard Model Fundamental theory SUSY breaking? unification, GUT? scale-invariant sum rules? [Cohen, Schmalz] renormalization group bottom up [SFitter + Kneur] LHC sensitive to UV models 1/M i M 1 M 2 M log(q) Technical status 20D parameter spaces under control [including statistics and errors] give us time to apply methods collaborations and suggestions welcome

12 Stuff