Machine Learning - MT Classification: Generative Models

Transcription

1 Machine Learning - MT Classification: Generative Models Varun Kanade University of Oxford October 31, 2016

2 Announcements Practical 1 Submission Try to get signed off during session itself Otherwise, do it in the next session Exception: Practical 4 (Firm deadline Friday Week 8 at noon) Sheet 2 is due this Friday 12pm 1

3 Recap: Supervised Learning - Regression Discriminative Model: Linear Model (with Gaussian noise) p(y w, x) = w x + N (0, σ 2 ) Other noise models possible, e.g., Laplace Non-linearities using basis expansion Regularisation to avoid overfitting: Ridge, Lasso (Cross)-Validation to choose hyperparameters Optimisation Algorithms for Model Fitting Least Squares Ridge Lasso Gauss Legendre 2

4 Supervised Learning - Classification In classification problems, the target/output y is a category y {1, 2,..., C} The input x = (x 1,..., x D), where Categorical: x i {1,..., K} Real-Valued: x i R Discriminative Model: Only model the conditional distribution p(y x, θ) Generative Model: Model the full joint distribution p(x, y θ) 3

5 Prediction Using Generative Models Suppose we have a model p(x, y θ) over the joint distribution over inputs and outputs Given a new input x new, we can write the conditional distribution for y For c {1,..., C}, we write p(y = c x new, θ) = p(y = c θ) p(x new y = c, θ) C c =1 p(y = c θ)p(x new y = c, θ) The numerator is simply the joint probability p(x new, c θ) and the denominator the marginal probability p(x new θ) We can pick ŷ = argmax c p(y = c x new, θ) 4

6 Toy Example Predict voter preference using in US elections Voted in Annual State Candidate 2012? Income Choice Y 50K OK Clinton N 173K CA Clinton Y 80K NJ Trump Y 150K WA Clinton N 25K WV Johnson Y 85K IL Clinton... Y 1050K NY Trump N 35K CA Trump N 100K NY?. 5

7 Classification : Generative Model In order to fit a generative model, we ll express the joint distribution as p(x, y θ, π) = p(y π) p(x y, θ) To model p(y π), we ll use parameters π c such that c πc = 1 p(y = c π) = π c For class-conditional densities, for class c = 1,..., C, we will have a model: p(x y = c, θ c) 6

8 Classification : Generative Model So in our example, p(y = clinton π) = π clinton p(y = trump π) = π trump p(y = johnson π) = π johnson Given that a voter supports Trump!! p(x y = trump, θ trump) models the distribution over x given y = trump and θ trump Similarly, we have p(x y = clinton, θ clinton) and p(x y = johnson, θ johnson) We need to pick model for p(x y = c, θ c) Estimate the parameters π c, θ c for c = 1,..., C 7

9 Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) Assume that the features are conditionally independent given the class label p(x y = c, θ c) = D p(x j y = c, θ jc) So, for example, we are modelling that conditioned on being a trump supporter, the state, previous voting or annual income are conditionally independent j=1 Clearly, this assumption is naïve and never satisfied But model fitting becomes very very easy Although the generative model is clearly inadequate, it actually works quite well Goal is predicting class, not modelling the data! 8

10 Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) Real-Valued Features x j is real-valued e.g., annual income Example: Use a Gaussian model, so θ jc = (µ jc, σjc) 2 Can use other distributions, e.g., age is probably not Gaussian! Categorical Features x j is categorical with values in {1,..., K} Use the multinoulli distribution, i.e. x j = i with probability µ jc,i K µ jc,i = 1 i=1 The special case when x j {0, 1}, use a single parameter θ jc [0, 1] 9

11 Naïve Bayes Classifier (NBC) Assume that all the features are binary, i.e., every x j {0, 1} If we have C classes, overall we have only O(CD) parameters, θ jc for each j = 1,..., D and c = 1,..., C Without the conditional independence assumption We have to assign a probability for each of the 2 D combination Thus, we have O(C 2 D ) parameters! The naïve assumption breaks the curse of dimensionality and avoids overfitting! 10

12 Maximum Likelihood for the NBC Let us suppose we have data (x i, y i) N i=1 i.i.d. from some joint distribution p(x, y) The probability for a single datapoint is given by: p(x i, y i θ, π) = p(y i π) p(x i θ, y i) = C π I(y i=c) c C j=1 D p(x ij θ jc) I(y i=c) Let N c be the number of datapoints with y i = c, so that C Nc = N We write the log-likelihood of the data as: D log p(d θ, π) = N c log π c + log p(x ij θ jc) j=1 i:y i =c The log-likelihood is easily separated into sums involving different parameters! 11

13 Maximum Likelihood for the NBC We have the log-likelihood for the NBC D log p(d θ, π) = N c log π c + log p(x ij θ jc) j=1 i:y i =c Let us obtain estimates for π. We get the following optimisation problem: maximise subject to : N c log π c π c = 1 This constrained optimisation problem can be solved using the method of Lagrange multipliers 12

14 Constrained Optimisation Problem Suppose f(z) is some function that we want to maximise subject to g(z) = 0. Constrained Objective argmax f(z), subject to : g(z) = 0 z Langrangian (Dual) Form Λ(z, λ) = f(z) + λg(z) Any optimal solution to the constrained problem is a stationary point of Λ(z, λ) 13

15 Constrained Optimisation Problem Any optimal solution to the constrained problem is a stationary point of Λ(z, λ) = f(z) + λg(z) zλ(z, λ) = 0 zf = λ zg Λ(z,λ) λ = 0 g(z) = 0 14

16 Maximum Likelihood for NBC Recall that we want to solve: maximise : subject to : N c log π c π c 1 = 0 We can write the Lagrangean form: Λ(π, λ) = N c log π c + λ π c 1 We can write the partial derivatives and set them to 0: Λ(π,λ) π c Λ(π,λ) λ = = Nc + λ = 0 π c π c 1 = 0 15

17 Maximum Likelihood for NBC The solution is obtained by setting And so, N c π c + λ = 0 π c = Nc λ As well as using the second condition, And thence, π c 1 = Nc λ 1 = 0 λ = Thus, we get the estimates, N c = N π c = Nc N 16

18 Maximum Likelihood for the NBC We have the log-likelihood for the NBC D log p(d θ, π) = N c log π c + log p(x ij θ jc) j=1 i:y i =c We obtained the estimates, π c = Nc N We can estimate θ jc by taking a similar approach To estimate θ jc we only need to use the j th feature of examples with y i = c Estimates depend on the model, e.g., Gaussian, Bernoulli, Multinoulli, etc. Fitting NBC is very very fast! 17

19 Summary: Naïve Bayes Classifier Generative Model: Fit the distribution p(x, y θ) Make the naïve and obviously untrue assumption that features are conditionally independent given class! p(x y = c, θ c) = D p(x j y = c, θ jc) j=1 Despite this classifiers often work quite well in practice The conditional independence assumption reduces the number of parameters and avoids overfitting Fitting the model is very straightforward Easy to mix and match different models for different features 18

20 Outline Generative Models for Classification Naïve Bayes Model Gaussian Discriminant Analysis

21 Generative Model: Gaussian Discriminant Analysis Recall the form of the joint distribution in a generative model p(x, y θ, π) = p(y π) p(x y, θ) For classes, we use parameters π c such that c πc = 1 p(y = c π) = π c Suppose x R D, we model the class-conditional density for class c = 1,..., C, as a multivariate normal distribution with mean µ c and covariance matrix Σ c p(x y = c, θ c) = N (x µ c, Σ c) 19

22 Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) Let s first see what the prediction rule for this model is: p(y = c x new, θ) = p(y = c θ) p(x new y = c, θ) C c =1 p(y = c θ)p(x new y = c, θ) When the densities p(x y = c, θ c) are multivariate normal, we get ( ) π c 2πΣ c 2 1 exp 1 (x µ 2 c )T Σ 1 c (x µ c ) p(y = c x, θ) = ) C c =1 π c 2πΣ c 2 1 exp ( 1 (x µ 2 c )T Σ 1 c (x µ c ) The denominator is the same for all classes, so the boundary between class c and c is given by ( ) π c 2πΣ c 1 2 exp 1 (x µ 2 c )T Σ 1 c (x µ c ) ( ) = 1 π c 2πΣ c 1 2 exp 1 (x µ 2 c )T Σ 1 c (x µ c ) Thus the boundaries are quadratic surfaces, hence the method is called quadratic discriminant analysis 20

23 Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA) 21

24 Linear Discriminant Analysis A special case is when the covariance matrices are shared or tied across different classes We can write ( p(y = c x, θ) π c exp 1 ) 2 (x µ c )T Σ 1 (x µ c ) = exp (µ Tc Σ 1 x 12 ) ( µtc Σ 1 µ c + log π c exp 1 ) 2 xt Σ 1 x Let us set γ c = 1 2 µt c Σ 1 µ c + log π c β c = Σ 1 µ c and so ) p(y = c x new, θ) exp (β Tc x + γc 22

25 Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) & Softmax Recall that we wrote, ) p(y = c x, θ) exp (β Tc x + γ c And so, p(y = c x, θ) = ) exp (β Tc x + γc ) = softmax(η) c c exp (β Tc x + γ c where, η = [β T 1 x + γ1,, βt C x + γc]. Softmax Softmax maps a set of numbers to a probability distribution with mode at the maximum softmax([1, 2, 3]) [0.090, 0.245, 0.665] softmax([10, 20, 30]) [2 10 9, , 1] 23

26 QDA and LDA 24

27 Two class LDA When we have only 2 classes, say 0 and 1, p(y = 1 x, θ) = exp = ) exp (β T1 x + γ1 (β T1 x + γ1 ) + exp (β T0 x + γ0 ) exp ( ((β 1 β 0 ) T x + (γ 1 γ 0)) ) = sigmoid((β 1 β 0 ) T x + (γ 1 γ 0)) Sigmoid Function The sigmoid function is defined as: sigmoid(t) = e t Sigmoid t 25

28 MLE for QDA (or LDA) We can write the log-likelihood given data D = (x i, y i) N i=1 as: log p(d θ) = N c log π c + log N (x µ c, Σ c) As in the case of Naïve Bayes, we get π c = Nc N possible to show that, µ c = 1 N c i:y i =c x i i:y i =c Σ c = 1 (x i µ N c )(x i µ c ) T c i:y i =c (See Chap 4.1 from Murphy for details) For other parameters, it is 26

29 How to Prevent Overfitting The number of parameters in the model is roughly C D 2 In high-dimensions this can lead to overfitting Use diagonal covariance matrices (basically Naïve Bayes) Use weight tying a.k.a. parameter sharing (LDA vs QDA) Bayesian Approaches Use a discriminative classifier (+ regularize if needed) 27