The Labor Market in the New Keynesian Model: Foundations of the Sticky Wage Approach and a Critical Commentary

Transcription

1 The Labor Market in the New Keynesian Model: Foundations of the Sticky Wage Approach and a Critical Commentary Lawrence J. Christiano March 30, 2013

2 Baseline developed earlier: NK model with no capital and with acompetitivelabormarket. private sector equilibrium conditions Standard Labor Market Friction: Erceg-Henderson-Levin sticky wages. we will consider an interpretation of EHL proposed by Gali, which deduces implications for unemployment.

3 where p t = P t /P t. Equil Conditions, Baseline NK Model Price setting: where: marginal cost K t = # 1 # z} { s t + bqe t p t+1 # K t+1 (1) F t = 1 + bqe t p t+1 # 1 F t+1 (2) marginal cost = s t = (1 n) W t P t A t, perfect competition in labor market z } { W t P t = exp (t t ) N j t C t. Intermediate good firm optimality and resriction across prices: = p t by firm optimality z} { K t F t = = p t by restriction across prices z } { " # 1 q p t # # 1 q (3)

4 Law of motion of Tack Yun distortion: # # 1 pt "(1 = 1 q p t q) # 1 # 1 q p 1 q + t # pt 1 (4) Household intertemporal condition: Aggregate inputs and outputs: 1 1 C t = be t C t+1 C t = p t A tn t (6) R t p t+1 (5)

5 Linearizing around E cient Steady State In steady state (assuming p = 1, 1 n = # 1 # ) p = 1, K = F = 1 1 bq, s = # 1, Da = t = 0, N = 1 # Linearizing the Tack Yun distortion about steady state: ˆp t = q ˆp t 1! ˆp t = 0, t large (4) Denote the output gap in ratio form by X t : X t A t exp C t so that (using x t ˆX t ): = p t t N t exp t 1+j x t = ˆN t + dt t 1+j tt, 1 + j

6 NK IS Curve, Baseline Model The intertemporal Euler equation, after substituting for C t in terms of X t : where X t A t exp then, use to obtain: 1 t t 1+j = be t 1 X t+1 A t+1 exp 1 1 = E t X t X t+1 Rt+1 R t p t+1, t t+1 1+j Rt+1 1 b exp a t+1 a t t t+1 t t 1 + j dz t u t = ẑ t + û t, \ ut = û t ẑ t ˆX t = E t ˆX t+1 ˆR t b p t+1 ˆR t+1 z t R t p t+1

7 Let: NK IS Curve, Baseline Model R t exp (r t )! ˆR t = d exp (r t) exp (r) = exp (r) dr t exp (r) = dr t r t r. Also, Rt+1 = exp log Rt+1! ˆR t+1 = d exp log Rt+1 exp (log R = d log Rt+1 ) =r in e cient steady state, with p=1 = log Rt+1 z } { log R So, (letting r t E t log R t+1 ) E t ˆR t ˆR t+1 = drt E t d log R t+1 = r t r t.

8 NK IS Curve, Baseline Model Substituting E t ˆR t ˆR t+1 = rt rt into ˆX t = E t ˆX t+1 ˆR t b p t+1 ˆR t+1, xt ˆX t, and using b p t+1 = p t+1, when p = 1, we obtain NK IS curve: x t = E t x t+1 E t [r t p t+1 rt ] (5) Also, rt = log (b) + E t a t+1 a t t t+1 t t. 1 + j

9 Linearized Marginal Cost in Baseline Model Marginal cost (using da t = a t, dt t = t t because a = t = 0): s t = (1 n) w t, w t = exp (t t ) N j t A C t t! b w t = t t + a t + (1 + j) ˆN t Then, ŝ t = w t a t = (j + 1) h tt j+1 + ˆN t i = (j + 1) x t

10 Linearized Phillips Curve in Baseline Model Log-linearize equilibrium conditions, (1)-(3), around steady state: Substitute (3) into (1) ˆF t + ˆK t = (1 bq) ŝ t + bq #b p t+1 + ˆK t+1 (1) ˆF t = bq (# 1) b p t+1 + bq ˆF t+1 (2) ˆK t = ˆF t + 1 q q b p t (3) q 1 q ˆp t = (1 bq) ŝ t + bq #b p t+1 + ˆF t+1 + q 1 q ˆp t+1 Simplify the latter using (2), to obtain the NK Phillips curve: p t = (1 q)(1 bq) q ŝ t + bp t+1

11 The Linearized Private Sector Equilibrium Conditions of the Competitive Labor Market Model x t = x t+1 [r t p t+1 rt ] p t = (1 q)(1 bq) q ŝ t + bp t+1 ŝ t = (j + 1) x t

12 Reasons to consider frictions in the labor market: Play an essential role in accounting for response to a monetary policy shock. With flexible wages, wage costs rise too fast in the wake of expansionary monetary policy shock. High costs limit firms incentive to expand employment. High costs imply sharp rise in inflation. But, the data suggest that after an expansionary monetary policy shock inflation hardly rises and output rises a lot! Wage frictions play essential role in making possible an account of monetary non-neutrality (see CEE, 2005JPE). Important for understanding employment response to other shocks too. Introducing sticky wages and monopoly power in labor market provides a theory of unemployment.

13 Sticky Wages Basic model is due to Erceg-Henderson-Levin. We will follow the interpretation of EHL suggested by Gali, so that we have a theory of unemployment (see also Gali-Smets-Wouters). Worker heterogeneity is required: Must have di erences between workers if we re to have some unemployed and others employed. Worker heterogeneity potentially introduces complications, which we will avoid through the (somewhat artificial) assumption that workers live in large families.

14 Outline Provide a broad sketch of the model. Discuss the equations of the model. Provide a critical assessment of the model.

15 Ba Model There are many identical households. The representative household contains all workers: Many workers of each type. Differentiated by utility cost of working Every worker enjoys the same level of consumption.

16 Household A plumbers painters etc. Monopoly plumber union Household B plumbers painters Monopoly painter union etc.

17 Type j Monopoly Union Wage unemployment Labor supply onopoly age Labor demand markup #of people employed Labor force Quantity of labor

18 The Equations of the Sticky Wage Model: Outline Describe relationship of workers and the households they live in. The source of heterogeneity that causes workers to experience di erent outcomes in the labor market. definition of employment, unemployment, labor force. Household and worker utility functions. The nature of the labor market. Driven by monopoly unions Investigate the empirical implications of a theory of unemployment with monopoly unions. Explain Calvo-style wage stickiness. Explore the implications for unemployment of the model. Some issues that come up.

19 Households and their Workers Economy has many identical households. Each household has a large number of workers. All workers receive the same level of consumption, C t, in exchange for obeying the rules. Each worker is represented by a point in a unit-square box. The vertical dimension of the box corresponds to j 2 (0, 1) and j indexes the type of labor the worker does. The horizontal dimension corresponds to l 2 (0, 1) and l indexes the worker s degree of aversion to work. Work aversion, l, is uniformly distributed among the workers, for each j. That is, for each j, the number of workers with work aversion, l, f (l), has the property, f (l) = 1 for all l 2 (0, 1).

20 Worker Utility For each j, the utility of a worker that is not employed: log (C t ). the utility of a worker that has aversion to work l and is employed: log (C t ) l j, j > 0.

21 House Rules Wage taken as given by household and worker. W t,j is determined by a union (more on this later). Household does this in exchange for benefits of monopoly power. Type j employed workers send the wage, W t,j, home. They do this in exchange for consumption insurance. Household must supply all labor demanded. workers with least work aversion are employed. If labor demand is h t,j then workers with 0 l h t,j must go to work and those with l h t,j stay at home. Under this rule, the household satisfies labor demand, since: Z ht,j 0 number (density) of workers with work aversion, l z} { Z ht,j f (l) dl = dl = h t,j. 0

22 Household Utility Equally-weighted sum of utility of all household workers. Utility of a household that supplies h t,j labor, j 2 (0, 1) : 8 utility of employed workers z } { z } { Z 1 >< Z ht,j Z 1 f (l)[log (C t ) l j ] dl + f (l) log (C t ) dl 0 0 h t,j >: = Z 1 0 Z ht,j h t,j log (C t ) = Z utility of non-employed workers l j dl + 1 h t,j log (Ct ) dj 8 9 < : log (C t) h 1+j = t,j 1 + j; dj = log (C t ) Z 1 0 h 1+j t,j 1 + j dj 9 >= dj >;

23 Marginal Cost and Marginal Benefit of Labor The marginal cost of type j labor is the cost experienced by the last employed worker: h j t,j. The marginal benefit (to household) of labor: The utility value to the household of the wage, W t,j, brought home by the marginal worker: W t,j u t. u t ~household marginal utility of one unit of currency (Lagrange multiplier on budget constraint). private benefit to worker of wage is zero. Labor supply: graph of h j t,j /u t against h t,j for fixed u t.

24 Labor Supply In principle, labor supply is an ambiguous concept in a dynamic model. Response to a temporary or permanent wage change? In practice, assume temporary wage change. So temporary (maybe even more temporary than just one whole period!), that there is no change in u t. Called the Frisch elasticity (after Ragnar Frisch) of labor supply. Alternative interpretation of Frisch labor supply elasticity: pure substitution e ect part of the response of labor to a wage change. Frisch labor supply elasticity: d log h t,j d log h j t,j t /u dut =0 = 1 j

25 Labor Force and Unemployment Gali/Gali-Smets-Wouters definition of type j labor force, h s t,j : j h s t,j = W u t,j. t For workers with l h s t,j the cost of working is less than the benefit (to the household). These people are available for work. For workers with l h s t,j it s not worth it to the household (which internalizes the worker s degree of work aversion) for them to go to work. Unemployment rate of type j workers: h s t,j h t,j h s t,j

26 the value of W t,j, j 2 (0, 1) chosen by the union the value of h t,j implied by the demand curve for labor (see below). The household in this model only has a consumption/saving decision. Household Problem The household maximizes utility, 2 E 0 Â b t t=0 w.r.t. C t, B t+1, subject to: the budget constraint, 4log (C t ) P t C t + B t+1 B t R t Z 1 Z 1 0 h 1+j t,j W t,j h t,j dj j dj 5, 0 profits net of lump sum government taxes z} { p t, for all t

27 Labor Market In the simple New Keynesian model with competitive labor markets, labor is supplied directly by households. In model with sticky wages, N t is constructed from the specialized labor supplied by households: Z 1 N t = 0 ht,j #w 1 #w dj #w #w 1, #w > 1. The above technology is operated by perfectly competitive labor contractors or aggregators. They are the analog of the final good producers. They choose N t, h t,j, j 2 (0, 1) to maximize profits: W t N t Z 1! h t,j = N t Wt W t,j 0 W t,j h t,j dj #w

28 Unions For each j, there is a monopoly union that sets W t,j. The type j union sets the wage to promote the objectives of its members. Union membership composed of coalitions of people from each of the identical households. Each identical household coalition is composed of all the l 2 (0, 1) workers of type j from that household. Integrating over the objectives of all l 2 (0, 1) in a typical coalition: value, in utility terms, of wage =1/(P t C t ) Z z} { ht,j u t 0 f (l) W t,j dl sum, across employed workers, of utility cost of working z } { Z ht,j f (l) l j dl = u t W t,j h t,j h1+j t,j 1 + j 0

29 Union Wages when Wages are Set Flexibly The jth monopoly union would choose W t,j to maximize 8 9 < max : u tw t,j h t,j h 1+j! = #w t,j 1 + j; subject to h W t t,j = N t. W t,j FONC: W t,j = markup z } { # w # w 1 nominal marginal cost of labor z} { h j t,j u t. Note that we have a theory of unemployment : 1 # w 1 j h t,j = u t W t,j, h s t,j # = 1 u t W j t,j, w So, unemployment hs h h s 1 #w 1 j = 1. # w

30 Unemployment and Unionization in the Data According to the theory, the level of unemployment is a function of the labor markup and j. How does the theory perform relative to the data? u = 1 1 j 1 markup = 4.8%, whenmarkup = 1.05, j = 1 (CEE calibration). not bad! But, degree of unionization varies over time. Does the theory s prediction that with more unionization there should be higher unemployment hold up? not really, though evidence is somewhat mixed.

31 Does(the(Degree(of(Union(Power( Affect(the(Unemployment(Rate?( OECD(Employment(Outlook((2006,(chap(7)( Norway(and(Denmark(have(unioniza8on(rates( near(80(percent.(before(the(current(crisis(their( unemployment(rate(was(under(3.0(percent.(

32 Union(Density(Rates( Jelle(Visser,(2006(Monthly(Labor(Review( Union(density(rates,(1970,(1980(and( ,( adjusted(for(comparability.( Defini8on:(union(membership(as(a(propor8on(of( wage(and(salary(earners(in(employment.(

33

34 Unemployment(Rates:(Sources( BLS,( Interna8onal(Comparisons(of(Annual( Labor(Force(Sta8s8cs, (Adjusted(to(U.S.( Concepts,(10(Countries,( ,(Table(1-2.( Finland,(Norway(and(Spain(taken(from(ILO,( Comparable(annual(employment(and( unemployment(es8mates,(adjusted(averages (

35

36 Monopoly(Power(Hypothesis( If(union(density(in(country(A(grows(faster(than( union(density(in(us,(then( Expect(unemployment(in(country(A(to(rise(more( than(unemployment(in(us.(( Test(is(based(on(low(frequency(part(of(the( data,(not(on(the(levels.(

37

38 Wage Setting with Frictions When wages are flexible wage markup constant, so unemployment rate predicted to be constant. When wages are sticky, wage markup not constant, so unemployment rate fluctuates. To model wage stickiness, adopt Calvo-style frictions: union optimizes wage with probability 1 q w. with probability q w, W t,j = W t 1,j.

39 Wage Setting with Frictions, cnt d In practice, assume indexation : W t,j = p w,t 1 µ a,t 1 W t 1,j, where p w,t 1 is lagged nominal wage inflation and µ a,t 1 is technology growth. it appears that indexation is important for aggregate models to fit the data well (see Christiano-Eichenbaum-Trabandt (2013)). indexation has been criticized as being inconsistent with micro data: indexation implies all individual wages change in all periods, while in the data many wages remain unchanged for periods up to a year.

40 Wage Setting with Frictions, cnt d The 1 q w unions that reoptimize in t select W t to optimize ( h E t  (bq w ) i t 1+j ) u t+i W t h t t+i t+i 1 + j i=0 #w s. t. h t t+i = N Wt+i t+i. W t Here, h t t+i employment in t + i of workers whose wage was set in t. u t+i household marginal utility of currency in t + i. In general, u t+i is multiplier on household budget constraint. With our assumptions, u t+i = u c,t+i 1 =. P t+i P t+i C t+i

41 Wage Setting with Frictions, cnt d The solution to this problem gives rise to a wage Phillips curve : ˆp w,t = k w 1 + j# w Ĉ + j ˆN t b w t + b ˆpw,t+1 k w = (1 q w)(1 bq w ) q w, p w,t W t W t 1, w t W t P t. To understand this expression, note first: 2 \ 3 # w N j! t 6 /W t 4 # w 1 u t 7 5 {z } looks like markup of marginal cost of work P \ t C t N j \ t Ct N j t = = = Ĉ + j ˆN t b w t. W t w t

42 Intuition for Wage Phillips Curve With flexible wages, all unions behave the same so h t,j = h t,i = h t, say, for all i, j and N t = h t : Z 1 #w #w 1 #w 1 N t = ht,j #w dj = ht. each union hits wage target each period: W t,j = 0 markup z } { # w # w 1 nominal marginal cost of labor z} { N j t u t, for all j. With sticky wages, unions aim to hit wage target on average: W t rises if W t < W t falls if W t > # w N j t # w 1 u t # w N j t. # w 1 u t

43 Collecting the Equations Variables to be determined: x t, r t, p t, ˆr t, ŝ t, b w t, ˆp w,t Equations: x t = x t+1 [r t p t+1 rt ] p t = (1 q)(1 bq) q ŝ t + bp t+1 ŝ t = b w t a t ˆp w,t = k w 1+j# w Ĉt + j ˆN t b w t + b ˆpw,t+1 h i rt = log (b) + E t a t+1 a t t t+1 t t 1+j Need more equations: relate Ĉ t, ˆN t to x t and shocks, and connect b w t to ˆp w,t and p t.

44 Recall definition of level of output gap: X t : C t X t = p A t exp t t N t exp t 1+j Then, tt 1 + j Ĉ t = x t + a t t t 1 + j, ˆN t = x t t t 1 + j! Ĉ + j ˆN t = (1 + j) x t + a t t t.. Also, p w,t W t W t 1 = W t P t W t 1 P t 1 P t P t 1 =! ˆp w,t = b w t b w t 1 + b p t w t w t 1 p t

45 Equations of the Sticky Wage Model Six private sector equations in seven variables: x t = x t+1 [r t p t+1 rt ] p t = (1 q)(1 bq) q ŝ t + bp t+1 ŝ t = b w t a t ˆp w,t = k w 1+j# w (1 + j) xt + a t t t b w t + b ˆpw,t+1 ˆp w,t = b w t b w t 1 + ˆp t r t = Da t+1 t t+1 t t 1+j where r t and r t now stand for their deviations from steady state, r. Monetary policy rule: r t = ar t 1 + (1 a)[a p p t + a x x t ] + u t, where u t denotes a monetary policy shock.

46 Problem: Income Effects on Labor Supply Expansionary monetary policy shock: Generates increase in consumption Shifts labor supply to left. Causes fall in labor force and huge fall in unemployment. W Labor force labor Christiano, Trabandt and Walentin (NBER WP, 2010)

47 Fixing the Problem Replace: aggregate consumption in worker s own household real marginal cost of working Economy-wide consumption Externality from aggregate consumption: reduces utility cost of working. How are we to interpret this? Sort of looks like GHH preferences, but it is not. In equilibrium, C C Mechanically, the problem is fixed. g work of marginal worker u C real marginal cost of working u C g work by marginal worker u C, so consumption gone.

48 Income Effects and Labor Supply Removing income effects from labor supply is essential to get the model to work. In fact, are there income effects on labor supply? Time series observations seem to suggest yes. Could suppose there is a trend rise in productivity in home technology (Benhabib-Rogerson-Wright). But, what about cross section evidence? Do CEO s who make 10,000 times as much as janitors work 10,000 times as much? Could adopt the BRW fix in the cross section. Do all these fixes make sense?

49 Conclusion Alternative interpretation of the labor supply parameter, j: 2 3 E 0 Â b t t=0 4log (C t ) Z 1 0 h 1+j t,j 1 + j dj 5. previous interpretation - 1/j is the labor supply elasticity, the willingness of individuals to adjust their hours in response to a change in the wage. labor economists have estimated that the elasticity of labor supply on the intensive margin is small. new interpretation - j characterizes the nature of heterogeneity in the population, labor elasticity on extensive margin large j: population very heterogeneous in neighborhood of the working/not working margin, so few people jump in to the labor market when the wage rate rises (labor supply steep). small j : population relatively homogeneous with many people not working being close to the margin of jumping in to work in the response of a wage rise (labor supply flat).

50 Conclusion, cnt d Sticky wages e ective in getting wage not to rise much after a monetary policy shock, limiting the rise in inflation and amplifying the rise in output. But, Underlying monopoly power theory of unemployment does not receive strong support in the data. To fit the aggregate data, the model must incorporate wage indexation and this is not consistent with micro-data To obtain a good model of unemployment and labor force requires removing income e ects from utility. Not clear if this makes sense from a micro perspective. Alternative approach to labor markets are being explored (see Christiano, Eichenbaum and Trabandt (2013)).