Economics 2010c: Lecture 3 The Classical Consumption Model

Transcription

1 Economics 2010c: Lecture 3 The Classical Consumption Model David Laibson 9/9/2014

2 Outline: 1. Consumption: Basic model and early theories 2. Linearization of the Euler Equation 3. Empirical tests without precautionary savings effects

3 1 Application: Consumption. Sequence Problem (SP): Find ( ) such that X ( 0 )= sup 0 ( ) { } =0 =0 subject to a static budget constraint for consumption, Γ ( ) and a dynamic budget constraint for assets, +1 Γ ³ Here is the vector of assets, is consumption, is the vector of financial asset returns, and is the vector of labor income.

4 For instance, consider the case where the only asset is cash-on-hand (so is cash-on-hand) and consumption is constrained to lie between 0 and Then, Γ ( ) [0 ] +1 Γ ³ ( ) = 0

5 We will always assume that is exogenous and iid. However, in the welfare state, is not independent of See Hubbard, Skinner, and Zeldes (1995). We will always assume that is concave ( 00 0 for all 0). We will usually assume lim 0 0 ( ) = so 0 as long as 0 I ll highlight exceptions to this rule.

6 1.1 Bellman Equation representation The state variable, is stochastic, so it is not directly chosen (rather a distribution for +1 is chosen at time ). It is more convenient to think about asthechoicevariable. Bellman Equation: ( ) = sup { ( )+ ( +1 ) } [0 ] +1 = +1 ( ) = 0

7 1.2 Necessary Conditions First Order Condition: 0 ( )= +1 0 ( +1 ) if 0 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) if = Envelope Theorem: 0 ( ) = 0 ( ). Prove this. What if =? Euler Equation: 0 ( )= +1 0 ( +1 ) if 0 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) if =

8 1.3 Perturbation intuition behind the Euler Equation: What is the cost of consuming dollars less today? Utility loss today = 0 ( ) What is the (discounted, expected) gain of consuming +1 dollars more tomorrow? Utility gain tomorrow = h³ +1 0 ( +1 ) i Let s now rederive the Euler Equation:

9 1. Suppose 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) Then cut by and raise +1 by +1 to generate a net utility gain: h 0 ( ) ( +1 ) i 0 This perturbation is always possible on the equilibrium path, so: 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) 2. Suppose 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) then raise by and cut +1 by +1 to generate a net utility gain: h 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) i 0 This perturbation is possible on the equilibrium path as long as so: 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) as long as

10 It follows that 0 ( )= +1 0 ( +1 ) if 0 ( ) +1 0 ( +1 ) if =

11 1.4 Important consumption models: Life Cycle Hypothesis: Modigliani & Brumberg (1954) = =1 Perfect capital markets (and no moral hazard), so that future labor income can be exchanged for current capital.

12 Bellman Equation: ( ) =sup{ ( )+ ( +1 ) } +1 = ( ) 0 = X =0 e Sometimes referred to as eating a pie/cake problem. Euler Equation implies, 0 ( )= 0 ( +1 )= 0 ( +1 ) Hence, consumption is constant.

13 Budget constraint: X X = 0 e =0 =0 Substitute Euler Equation, 0 = to find X X 0 = 0 e =0 =0 So Euler Equation + budget constraint implies µ 0 = 1 1 X 0 e =0 Consumption is an annuity. What s the value of your annuity? Remark 1.1 Friedman s Permanent Income Hypothesis (Friedman, 1957) is much like Modigliani s Life-Cycle Hypothesis.

14 1.4.2 Certainty Equivalence Model: Hall (1978) = =1 Quadratic utility: ( ) = 2 2 This admits negative consumption. And this does not imply that lim 0 0 ( ) = Can t sell claims to labor income.

15 Bellman Equation: ( ) =sup { ( )+ ( +1 ) } +1 = ( ) = 0 X =0 X =0 e (BC) Euler Equation implies, = +1 = + (consumption is a random walk w/o drift): +1 = + +1 So +1 can not be predicted by any information available at time

16 Budget constraint at date : X =0 + = + X =1 e + X =0 + = + X =1 e + Substitute = + to find X X = + e + =0 =1 So Euler Equation + budget constraint implies = µ 1 1 X + =1 e +

17 2 Linearizing Euler Equation Recall Euler Equation: 0 ( )= +1 0 ( +1 ) Want to transform this equation so it is more amenable to empirical analysis. Assume that +1 isknownattime. Assume is an isoelastic (i.e., constant relative risk aversion) utility function, (Aside: lim ( ) = =ln. Important special case.)

18 Note that We can rewrite the Euler Equation as 0 ( ) = = = exp h ln ³ +1 i +1 1= exp [ + +1 ln( +1 )] where ln = and ln +1 = +1 Since, ln( +1 )=ln( +1 ) ln( ) we write, 1= exp [ +1 ln +1 ]

19 Assume that ln +1 is conditionally normally distributed. So, 1=exp +1 ln ln +1 Taking the natural log of both sides yields, ln +1 = 1 ( +1 )+ 2 ln +1

20 3 Empirical tests without precautionary savings effects Recall Euler Equation: 0 ( )= +1 0 ( +1 ) We write the linearized Euler Equation in regression form: ln +1 = 1 ( +1 )+ 2 ln where +1 is orthogonal to any information known at date The conditional variance term is often referred to as the precautionary savings term, (more on this later).

21 We sometimes (counterfactually) assume that ln +1 is constant (i.e., independent of time). So the Euler Equation reduces to: ln +1 = constant + 1 ( +1 )+ +1 When we replace the precautionary term with a constant, we are effectively ignorning its effect (since it is no longer separately identified from the other constant term: )

22 Hundreds of papers have estimated a linearized Euler Equation: ln +1 = constant The principal goals of these regressions are twofold: 1. Estimate 1, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) = ln For example, see Hall (1988). For this model, the EIS is the inverse of the CRRA.

23 2. Test the orthogonality restriction: {Ω information set at date } +1 In other words, test the restriction that information available at time does not predict consumption growth in the following regression ln +1 = constant For example, does the date expectation of income growth, ln +1 predict date +1consumption growth?

24 ln +1 = constant ln [ ] so ln +1 covaries with ln +1 (e.g., Campbell and Mankiw 1989, Shea 1995, Shapiro 2005, Parker and Broda 2014). Orthogonality restriction is violated: information at date predicts consumption growth from to +1 In other words, the assumptions (1) the Euler Equation is true, (2) the utility function is in the CRRA class, (3) the linearization is accurate, and (4) ln +1 is constant, are jointly rejected.

25 A note on Shea s methodology (for estimating ln +1 ) 1. Assign respondents to unions with national or regional bargaining national: trucking, postal service, railroads regional: lumber in Pacific Northwest, shipping on East Coast 2. Assign respondents to dominant local employer automobile worker living in Genesee County, MI (GM s Flint plant)

26 Why does expected income growth predict consumption growth? Leisure and consumption expenditure are substitutes (Heckman 1974, Ghez and Becker 1975, Aguiar and Hurst 2005, 2007) Work-based expenses Households support lots of dependents in mid-life when income is highest (Browning 1992, Attanasio 1995, Seshadri et al 2006) Households are liquidity constrained and impatient (Deaton 1991, Carroll 1992, Laibson 1997).

27 Some consumers use rules of thumb: = (Campbell and Mankiw 1989, Thaler and Shefrin 1981) Welfare costs of smoothing are second-order (Cochrane 1989, Pischke 1995, Browning and Crossley 2001)