Bounded Rationality, Strategy Simplification, and Equilibrium

Transcription

1 Bounded Rationality, Strategy Simplification, and Equilibrium UPV/EHU & Ikerbasque Donostia, Spain BCAM Workshop on Interactions, September 2014

2 Bounded Rationality Frequently raised criticism of game theory: predictions clash with empirical observations, due to assumption: agents have unbd. computational power Criticism has motivated study of models of bounded rationality (Simon 69) One model: machine game Players choose finite-state automata that represent strategies for repeated games (Neyman 85, Rubinstein 86, Kalai & Stanford 88,...)

3 Bounded Rationality Frequently raised criticism of game theory: predictions clash with empirical observations, due to assumption: agents have unbd. computational power Criticism has motivated study of models of bounded rationality (Simon 69) One model: machine game Players choose finite-state automata that represent strategies for repeated games (Neyman 85, Rubinstein 86, Kalai & Stanford 88,...)

4 Nash equilibrium a la Rubinstein Rubinstein with Abreu and Piccione ( 86, 88, 93) studied forms of Nash equilibrium where strategy complexity is taken into account Studied maximally simplified strategies, where a player s strategy cannot be simplified without reducing his/her payoff Studied machine game Strategy complexity number of states (memory size) Basic supposition: in addition to maximizing payoff, players desire to minimize strategy complexity

5 Nash equilibrium a la Rubinstein Rubinstein with Abreu and Piccione ( 86, 88, 93) studied forms of Nash equilibrium where strategy complexity is taken into account Studied maximally simplified strategies, where a player s strategy cannot be simplified without reducing his/her payoff Studied machine game Strategy complexity number of states (memory size) Basic supposition: in addition to maximizing payoff, players desire to minimize strategy complexity

6 Nash equilibrium a la Rubinstein Why is strategy simplicity desirable? (Osborne & Rubinstein) suggest complex strategies may be more expensive to execute, more likely to break down, harder to learn, & costly to maintain. Following (Rubinstein 86), it can be suggested that maximally simplified strategies capture phenomena observed in real life: Institutions, organizations, and human abilities may degenerate or be reduced if they contain unnecessary or redundant components

7 A new notion of equilibrium We introduce/study a new notion of equilibrium that captures maximally simplified strategies...but with respect to a more careful, conservative simplification procedure Motivation: in Rubinstein model, a player simplifies without considering whether or not simplification may incent other players to deviate this liberal mode of simplification may spoil desirable outcomes, e.g. outcomes that are Nash equilibr. in usual payoff sense Let s consider an example: infinitely repeated Prisoner s Dilemma...

8 A new notion of equilibrium We introduce/study a new notion of equilibrium that captures maximally simplified strategies...but with respect to a more careful, conservative simplification procedure Motivation: in Rubinstein model, a player simplifies without considering whether or not simplification may incent other players to deviate this liberal mode of simplification may spoil desirable outcomes, e.g. outcomes that are Nash equilibr. in usual payoff sense Let s consider an example: infinitely repeated Prisoner s Dilemma...

9 A new notion of equilibrium We introduce/study a new notion of equilibrium that captures maximally simplified strategies...but with respect to a more careful, conservative simplification procedure Motivation: in Rubinstein model, a player simplifies without considering whether or not simplification may incent other players to deviate this liberal mode of simplification may spoil desirable outcomes, e.g. outcomes that are Nash equilibr. in usual payoff sense Let s consider an example: infinitely repeated Prisoner s Dilemma...

10 Example: grim trigger

11 A new notion of equilibrium In Rubinstein model: a player simplifies his strategy as long as he can maintain his payoff In our model: players are more forward-looking, and simplify if (in addition) no other player can profitably deviate post-simplification That is: in considering simplifications, players are averse to potential payoff-motivated deviations by other players In other words: players only simplify if the result is a NE Our notion: lean equilibrium - an outcome of strategies at NE such that no player can both individually simplify and preserve the property of being at NE

12 A new notion of equilibrium In Rubinstein model: a player simplifies his strategy as long as he can maintain his payoff In our model: players are more forward-looking, and simplify if (in addition) no other player can profitably deviate post-simplification That is: in considering simplifications, players are averse to potential payoff-motivated deviations by other players In other words: players only simplify if the result is a NE Our notion: lean equilibrium - an outcome of strategies at NE such that no player can both individually simplify and preserve the property of being at NE

13 A new notion of equilibrium: example Grim trigger strategy paired with itself, (Grim, Grim), is a lean equilibrium (in -repeated Prisoner s dilemma) (Grim, Grim) is a NE Grim strategy has two states Consider (S, Grim) where S is a simplification. We claim not a NE. S must have one state, and must always cooperate (to be best response to Grim) But, this is not a NE! Other player can then profitably deviate by always defecting.

14 Summary of technical results Results concern the machine game. 1. We give techniques for establishing that outcomes are at lean equilibrium, and illustrate their use with examples 2. We present structure of equilibria results.

15 Definitions A strategic game is a tuple (N, (A i ), ( i )) where N = {1,..., n} is set of players Ai is set of actions for player i i is a preference relation on j N A j for player i A Nash equilibr. is a profile a such that (a i, a i) i (a i, a i ) (for all i) We study games where each player has a complexity order i a binary relation on A i Intended use: b i i a i if b i has same/lower complexity than a i A lean equilibr. is a Nash equilibr. a such that if a i ai then (a i, a i) is not a Nash eq.

16 Definitions A strategic game is a tuple (N, (A i ), ( i )) where N = {1,..., n} is set of players Ai is set of actions for player i i is a preference relation on j N A j for player i A Nash equilibr. is a profile a such that (a i, a i) i (a i, a i ) (for all i) We study games where each player has a complexity order i a binary relation on A i Intended use: b i i a i if b i has same/lower complexity than a i A lean equilibr. is a Nash equilibr. a such that if a i ai then (a i, a i) is not a Nash eq.

17 Existence of lean equilibria Prop: Suppose that G a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ) that are partial orders that are well-founded: for all i N, a i A i, there exists a bound on the length of a chain c 1 i i c K i a i Then for every Nash eq. a of G, there exists a lean eq. b A with b i ai (for all i). Note: the complexity orders we study are total orders and are well-founded

18 Existence of lean equilibria Prop: Suppose that G a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ) that are partial orders that are well-founded: for all i N, a i A i, there exists a bound on the length of a chain c 1 i i c K i a i Then for every Nash eq. a of G, there exists a lean eq. b A with b i ai (for all i). Note: the complexity orders we study are total orders and are well-founded

19 Abreu-Rubinstein equilibria An equilibrium notion studied by Abreu & Rubinstein ( 88). Idea: each player wants to maximize payoff, but also prefers simpler strategies if they sustain payoff Def: Let G be a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ). A profile a is an Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium if: 1. (a i, a i) i (a i, a i ), and 2. (a i, a i ) i (a i, a i) implies that a i i ai does not hold. Prop: Let G be a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ). Every Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium is a lean equilibrium.

20 Abreu-Rubinstein equilibria An equilibrium notion studied by Abreu & Rubinstein ( 88). Idea: each player wants to maximize payoff, but also prefers simpler strategies if they sustain payoff Def: Let G be a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ). A profile a is an Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium if: 1. (a i, a i) i (a i, a i ), and 2. (a i, a i ) i (a i, a i) implies that a i i ai does not hold. Prop: Let G be a strategic game with complexity orders ( i ). Every Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium is a lean equilibrium.

21 Machines and Complexity Measures A machine (succinctly) defines a strategy in an infinitely repeated game (limit of means used to compute payoff) A pair of machines naturally induces a sequence of action pairs (G-outcomes) We study three complexity measures. Let M i be a machine. 1. Q i - the number of states 2. R i - the number of normal states. A threat state a state that forces the other player to his minmax payoff. All other states called normal states. 3. δ i - the number of normal transitions: δ i = {(q i, s j ) R i S j δ i (q i, s j ) R i } Each measure induces a complexity order, e.g. for Q i, have: M i i M i if and only if Q i Q i

22 Machines and Complexity Measures A machine (succinctly) defines a strategy in an infinitely repeated game (limit of means used to compute payoff) A pair of machines naturally induces a sequence of action pairs (G-outcomes) We study three complexity measures. Let M i be a machine. 1. Q i - the number of states 2. R i - the number of normal states. A threat state a state that forces the other player to his minmax payoff. All other states called normal states. 3. δ i - the number of normal transitions: δ i = {(q i, s j ) R i S j δ i (q i, s j ) R i } Each measure induces a complexity order, e.g. for Q i, have: M i i M i if and only if Q i Q i

23 Example

24 Example

25 Structure Theorem

26 Discussion/Wrap-up We introduced a notion of equilibrium for games in which there is a notion of strategy complexity on the players action sets As with the equilibrium studied by Abreu & Rubinstein, captures maximally simplified strategies. Intuition: Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium - player simplifies if can maintain payoff Lean equilibrium - player simplifies if can maintain Nash equilibrium Broad research direction: notions of equilibria where simplified strategies preferred by players, but simplicity not tied directly into payoff

27 Discussion/Wrap-up We introduced a notion of equilibrium for games in which there is a notion of strategy complexity on the players action sets As with the equilibrium studied by Abreu & Rubinstein, captures maximally simplified strategies. Intuition: Abreu-Rubinstein equilibrium - player simplifies if can maintain payoff Lean equilibrium - player simplifies if can maintain Nash equilibrium Broad research direction: notions of equilibria where simplified strategies preferred by players, but simplicity not tied directly into payoff

28 As Einstein said... Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.

29 Discussion/Wrap-up Not studied here: computational complexity of deciding if a player can simplify without incenting others to deviate The complexity of such meta-reasoning is potentially relevant Interesting issue for future work There may be scenarios where meta-reasoning may be inexpensive compared to simplification Example: reasoning about how to reconfigure a large organization may be cheaper than actually reconfiguring it

30 Discussion/Wrap-up Not studied here: computational complexity of deciding if a player can simplify without incenting others to deviate The complexity of such meta-reasoning is potentially relevant Interesting issue for future work There may be scenarios where meta-reasoning may be inexpensive compared to simplification Example: reasoning about how to reconfigure a large organization may be cheaper than actually reconfiguring it

31 Discussion/Wrap-up Studied lean equilibria in machine games One suggestion for future work: study lean equilibria in other games where there is (or one can define) a notion of strategy complexity