The Intersection of Measurement Model, Equating, and the Next Generation Science Standards Joseph A Martineau Senior Associate. Structure of the NGSS

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1 The Intersection of Measurement Model, Equating, and the Next Generation Science Standards Joseph A Martineau Senior Associate Structure of the NGSS The Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) are multidimensional with three dimensions: 1 Science and engineering practices: 08 practices common to all disciplines of science and engineering. Cross-cutting concepts: 07 concepts common to all disciplines of science and engineering. Disciplinary core ideas: 45 core ideas in discipline-specific bodies of knowledge. The core ideas are further divided into four disciplines: PS: Physical science LS: Life science ESS: Earth and Space Science ETS: Engineering, Technology, and Applications of Science The NGSS uses performance expectations (or expectations) to describe science as carried out at the intersection of practices, concepts, and core ideas. Given the very large potential number of standards that could exist in the threedimensional structure of the NGSS, using expectations also limits the content standards to a feasible number. Clearing Up Potential Confusion The Engineering, Technology, and Applications of Science (ETS) Discipline. The nature of the ETS discipline is ambiguous. Table 1 shows differences in how two parts of ETS are characterized in the National Academies of Science framework the NGSS is based on and in the NGSS 2. These differences cause some difficulty in summarizing the NGSS. I resolve this by treating ETS2.A and ETS2.B (See Table 1, below.) as core ideas, as this makes for clean figures and tables with minimal impact on results. Table 1. Different treatment of the ETS Discipline in the National Academies Framework and the NGSS. Structure of the ETS Discipline in the National Academies Framework ETS1: Engineering Design ETS1.A: Defining and Delimiting an Engineering Problem ETS1.B: Developing Possible Solutions ETS1.C: Optimizing the Design Solution ETS2: Links Among Engineering, Technology, Science, and Society ETS2.A: Interdependence of Science, Engineering, and Technology ETS2.B: Influence of Engineering, Technology, and Science on Society and the Natural World Appearance in the NGSS Performance Expectations Elements of core ideas Closely tied with concepts (but not elements of concepts) An Additional Component. The NGSS also includes the nature of science with eight elements. Four are closely associated with practices and four with concepts, as shown in Table 2. The nature of science is not another dimension, nor are its elements additional practices or concepts. 3 I simplify by treating nature of science as composed of ancillary elements that co-occur with core ideas. To graphically represent NGSS structure, I developed figures and tables that incorporate all combination of 45 core ideas 4, 8 practices, and 8 concepts 5 and all combinations of 45 core ideas and 8 nature of science elements for a total of 3,240 intersections at which science 1 See NGSS Lead States (2013a; 2013b). 2 See Committee on a Conceptual Framework for New K 12 Science Education Standards (2012, p. 203) and NGSS Lead States (2013c) 3 See page 4 of NGSS Lead States (2013e). 4 Including ETS2.A and ETS2.B. 5 The seven listed concepts plus allowing an expectation to not list a concept. See expectation 3 5 ETS1 3 for an example (NGSS Lead States, 2013g). 1

2 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 2 may be practiced. I call this the 3D + 1 representation, which is demonstrated in Figure 1. Annotations in red curly braces ({e.g.}) show how elements of ETS2 and nature of science line up in the structure. The number of expectations covering a small subset of intersections is shown in Table 3 by grade. Table 2. Treatment of the nature of science in the NGSS. Elements of the Nature of Science 1. Scientific Investigations Use a Variety of Methods 2. Scientific Knowledge is Based on Empirical Evidence 3. Scientific Knowledge is Open to Revision in Light of New Evidence 4. Scientific Models, Laws, Mechanisms, and Theories Explain Natural Phenomena 5. Science is a Way of Knowing 6. Scientific Knowledge Assumes an Order and Consistency in Natural Systems 7. Science is a Human Endeavor 8. Science Addresses Questions About the Natural and Material World Appearance in the NGSS Performance Expectations Closely tied with practices (but not elements of practices) Closely tied with concepts (but not elements of concepts) Figure 1. Annotated excerpt of an expectation [see NGSS Lead States (2013f, p. 85)]. HS ESS1 2 Students who demonstrate understanding can: HS ESS1 2. Construct an explanation of the Big Bang theory based on astronomical evidence of light spectra, motion of distant galaxies, and composition of matter in the universe. [Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on the astronomical evidence of the red shift of light from galaxies as an indication that the universe is currently expanding, the cosmic microwave background as the remnant radiation from the Big Bang, and the observed composition of ordinary matter of the universe, primarily found in stars and interstellar gases (from the spectra of electromagnetic radiation from stars), which matches that predicted by the Big Bang theory (3/4 hydrogen and 1/4 helium).] The performance expectation above was developed using the following elements from A Framework for K 12 Science Education Science and Engineering Practices Disciplinary Core Ideas Crosscutting Concepts Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions Constructing explanations and designing solutions in 9 12 builds on K 8 experiences and progresses to explanations and designs that are supported by multiple and independent student generated sources of evidence consistent with scientific ideas, principles, and theories. Construct an explanation based on valid and reliable evidence obtained from a variety of sources (including students own investigations, theories, simulations, peer review) and the assumption that theories and laws that describe the natural world operate today as they did in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Connections to Nature of Science {nature of science element 4} Science Models, Laws, Mechanisms, and Theories Explain Natural Phenomena {elements 1 4 appear with practices} A scientific theory is a substantiated explanation of some aspect of the natural world, based on a body of facts that have been repeatedly confirmed through observation and experiment and the science community validates each theory before it is accepted. If new evidence is discovered that the theory does not accommodate, the theory is generally modified. ESS1.A: The Universe and Its Stars The study of stars light spectra and brightness is used to identify compositional elements of stars, their movements, and their distances from Earth. The Big Bang theory is supported by observations of distant galaxies receding from our own, of the measured composition of stars and non stellar gases, and of the maps of spectra of the primordial radiation (cosmic microwave background) that still fills the universe. Other than the hydrogen and helium formed at the time of the Big Bang, nuclear fusion within stars produces all atomic nuclei lighter than and including iron, and the process releases electromagnetic energy. Heavier elements are produced when certain massive stars achieve a supernova stage and explode. PS4.B: Electromagnetic Radiation Atoms of each element emit and absorb characteristic frequencies of light. These characteristics allow identification of the presence of an element, even in microscopic quantities. (secondary) Energy and Matter Energy cannot be created or destroyed only moved between one place and another place, between objects and/or fields, or between systems. Connections to Engineering, Technology, and Applications of Science {core idea ETS2.A} Interdependence of Science, Engineering, and Technology {core ideas in ETS2 appear with concepts} Science and engineering complement each other in the cycle known as research and development (R&D). Many R&D projects may involve scientists, engineers, and others with wide ranges of expertise. Connections to Nature of Science {nature of science element 6} Scientific Knowledge Assumes an Order and Consistency in Natural Systems {elements 5 8 appear with concepts} Scientific knowledge is based on the assumption that natural laws operate today as they did in the past and they will continue to do so in the future. Science assumes the universe is a vast single system in which basic laws are consistent. Finally, the expectations are combined into topics, covering each of the lowest-level groupings of core ideas. An example is provided in Figure 2, which shows the topic that contains HS-ESS1-2 (which was displayed in Figure 1).

3 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 3 Because the number of intersections of the dimensions of the NGSS covered by the expectations is small, some states are developing test content based on the complete set of intersections available in the topics, even though most of the intersections available in a topic are not covered by any individual expectation. 6 Table 3. Number of expectations by grade or grade span. Grade or Grade Span Early Tested All Elementary Late Elementary Middle School High School Grades Grades Number of Expectations K K 12 Unique to a single grade Shared by grade span Total by grade span Figure 2. Condensed excerpt from topic HS ESS1 [see NGSS Lead States (2013c, pp )]. HS ESS1 Earth s Place in the Universe Students who demonstrate understanding can: HS ESS1 1. Develop a model based on evidence to illustrate the life span of the sun and the role of nuclear fusion in the sun s core to release energy that eventually reaches Earth in the form of radiation. HS ESS1 2. Construct an explanation of the Big Bang theory based on astronomical evidence of light spectra, motion of distant galaxies, and composition of matter in the universe. HS ESS1 3. Communicate scientific ideas about the way stars, over their life cycle, produce elements. HS ESS1 4. Use mathematical or computational representations to predict the motion of orbiting objects in the solar system. HS ESS1 5. Evaluate evidence of past and current movements of continental and oceanic crust and the theory of plate tectonics to explain the ages of crustal rocks. HS ESS1 6. Apply scientific reasoning and evidence from ancient Earth materials, meteorites, and other planetary surfaces to construct an account of Earth s formation and early history. The performance expectation above was developed using the following elements from A Framework for K 12 Science Education Science and Engineering Practices Disciplinary Core Ideas Crosscutting Concepts Developing and Using Models Using Mathematical and Computational Thinking Constructing Explanations and Designing Solutions Engaging in Argument from Evidence Obtaining, Evaluating, and Communicating Information Connections to Nature of Science Science Models, Laws, Mechanisms, and Theories Explain Natural Phenomena. ESS1.A: The Universe and Its Stars ESS1.B: Earth and the Solar System ESS1.C: The History of Planet Earth ESS2.B: Plate Tectonics and Large Scale System Interactions PS1.C: Nuclear Processes PS3.D: Energy in Chemical Processes and Everyday Life PS4.B: Electromagnetic Radiation Domain Coverage in the NGSS Patterns Scale, Proportion, and Quantity Energy and Matter Stability and Change Connections to Engineering, Technology, and Applications of Science Interdependence of Science, Engineering, and Technology Connections to Nature of Science Scientific Knowledge Assumes an Order and Consistency in Natural Systems A few states administer science assessments in contiguous grades 7, but most administer by grade span, so I use grade spans for tables and figures. Copying NGSS color scheme for figures, orange is for disciplinary core ideas (DCI), blue for science and engineering practices (SEP), and green for cross-cutting concepts (CCC). I add purple for nature of science (NOS). The complete domain of science defined by the NGSS is the 3,240 cells per grade/span, but the expectations cover only a small subset. Table 4 summarizes this coverage by grade span. Figures 3 and 4 show degrees of coverage (by expectations and topics, respectively) in the 3-5 grade span. Figures 5 and 6 do the same for the middle school grade 6 As noted by state staff from Michigan and Delaware at the 2017 (September) Reidy Interactive Lecture Series in Portsmouth, NH. 7 See Alabama State Department of Education (2016), Louisiana Department of Education (n.d.), and Utah State Board of Education (2017).

4 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 4 span, and Figures 7 and 8 for the high school grade span. In each figure, the number of expectations or topics that address each cell in the domain matrix is shown in the cell. While text in the figures is small, the figures remain useful in understanding the challenges by depicting the very sparse coverage of the complete domain. An analogous table including each grade and grade span and corresponding, larger, more readable figures are given in Appendix A. Table 4 shows that the total domain is poorly represented by expectations in all grade spans (the last two rows of the table). The coverage is less than three percent in grades 3-5, less than four percent in middle school, and less than five percent in high school. Likewise, the total domain is only somewhat better represented by topics in all grade spans (the middle two rows of the table). The topic-based coverage is less than seven percent in grades 3-5, less than twenty-five percent in middle school, and less than 30 percent in high school. Considered in isolation, coverage of core ideas, practices, concepts, and the nature of science is considerably better (the first four rows). However, even here there are some potential concerns: coverage of core ideas and the nature of science is incomplete in all three grade spans, and coverage of concepts is incomplete in the 3-5 grade span. Sparseness of coverage is exacerbated with grade-level because in grade-span testing the coverage can accumulate over multiple grade levels. The degree of exacerbation with grade-level testing can be seen in Appendix A. Table 4. Coverage of the NGSS by tested grade span 8. Percent of Elements of a Dimension or Component Addressed in Expectations (or in Topics) Elementary Middle School High School Dimension or Component Type Code (grades 3 5) (grades 6 8) (grades 9 12) Disciplinary Core Ideas Dimension DCI Science & Engineering Practices Dimension SEP Crosscutting Concepts Dimension CCC Nature of Science Component NOS Combination of Dimensions Part of Percent of Domain Cells Addressed in Topics and/or Components Domain 3 5 MS HS DCI SEP CCC 3D (DCI SEP CCC) + (DCI NOS) 3D Combination of Dimensions Part of Percent of Domain Cells Addressed in Expectations and/or Components Domain 3 5 MS HS DCI SEP CCC 3D (DCI SEP CCC) + (DCI NOS) 3D Implied Nested Data Structures The 3D + 1 structure of the NGSS sends educators a specific signal. That signal is that practices, core ideas, concepts, and the nature of science should be integrated in instruction because science is practiced at their intersection. That is, it is not possible to successfully practice, for example, life science without needing an understanding of the practices and concepts. Therefore, faithful assessment of the NGSS is unlikely with discrete items, and more likely with item sets built around a bundle of potentially interactive stimulus material to represent the 3D + 1 structure. This creates nested data structures, for example, with items nested within item sets. 8 Thanks to Jon Cohen of American Institutes for Research who noted on an earlier version that I was working from topics [see NGSS Lead States (2013c)] rather than expectations [see NGSS Lead States (2013f; 2013g; 2013h)]. The issues identified are considerably greater when working from expectations. Topics include many more combinations of dimensions than do expectations. However, it is expectations (not topics) that represent content eligible for inclusion on assessment.

5 Figure 3. Expectation based domain coverage of the NGSS in late elementary school grades (3 5). DCI 01: PS1.A DCI 02: PS1.B DCI 03: PS1.C DCI 04: PS DCI 05: PS2.B DCI 07: PS3.A DCI 08: PS3.B DCI 09: PS3.C DCI 10: PS3.D DCI 12: PS4.A DCI 13: PS4.B DCI 14: PS4.C DCI 15: LS1.A DCI 16: LS1.B DCI 17: LS1.C DCI 18: LS1.D DCI 19: LS2.A DCI 20: LS2.B DCI 21: LS2.C DCI 22: LS2.D DCI 23: LS3.A DCI 24: LS3.B DCI 25: LS4.A DCI 26: LS4.B DCI 27: LS4.C DCI 28: LS4.D DCI 29: ESS1.A DCI 30: ESS1.B DCI 31: ESS1.C DCI 32: ESS2.A DCI 33: ESS2.B DCI 34: ESS2.C DCI 35: ESS2.D DCI 36: ESS2.E DCI 37: ESS3.A DCI 38: ESS3.B DCI 39: ESS3.C DCI 40: ESS3.D DCI 41: ETS1.A DCI 42: ETS1.B DCI 43: ETS1.C DCI 44: ETS2.A DCI 45: ETS2.B

6 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 6 Figure 4. Topic based domain coverage of the NGSS in late elementary school grades (3 5). DCI 01: PS1.A DCI 02: PS1.B DCI 03: PS1.C DCI 04: PS DCI 05: PS2.B DCI 07: PS3.A DCI 08: PS3.B DCI 09: PS3.C DCI 10: PS3.D DCI 12: PS4.A DCI 13: PS4.B DCI 14: PS4.C DCI 15: LS1.A DCI 16: LS1.B DCI 17: LS1.C DCI 18: LS1.D DCI 19: LS2.A DCI 20: LS2.B DCI 21: LS2.C DCI 22: LS2.D DCI 23: LS3.A DCI 24: LS3.B DCI 25: LS4.A DCI 26: LS4.B DCI 27: LS4.C DCI 28: LS4.D DCI 29: ESS1.A DCI 30: ESS1.B DCI 31: ESS1.C DCI 32: ESS2.A DCI 33: ESS2.B DCI 34: ESS2.C DCI 35: ESS2.D DCI 36: ESS2.E DCI 37: ESS3.A DCI 38: ESS3.B DCI 39: ESS3.C DCI 40: ESS3.D DCI 41: ETS1.A DCI 42: ETS1.B DCI 43: ETS1.C DCI 44: ETS2.A DCI 45: ETS2.B

7 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 7 Figure 5. Expectation based domain coverage of the NGSS in middle school grades (6 8). DCI 01: PS1.A DCI 02: PS1.B DCI 03: PS1.C DCI 04: PS DCI 05: PS2.B DCI 07: PS3.A DCI 08: PS3.B DCI 09: PS3.C DCI 10: PS3.D DCI 12: PS4.A DCI 13: PS4.B DCI 14: PS4.C DCI 15: LS1.A DCI 16: LS1.B DCI 17: LS1.C DCI 18: LS1.D DCI 19: LS2.A DCI 20: LS2.B DCI 21: LS2.C DCI 22: LS2.D DCI 23: LS3.A DCI 24: LS3.B DCI 25: LS4.A DCI 26: LS4.B DCI 27: LS4.C DCI 28: LS4.D DCI 29: ESS1.A DCI 30: ESS1.B DCI 31: ESS1.C DCI 32: ESS2.A DCI 33: ESS2.B DCI 34: ESS2.C DCI 35: ESS2.D DCI 36: ESS2.E DCI 37: ESS3.A DCI 38: ESS3.B DCI 39: ESS3.C DCI 40: ESS3.D DCI 41: ETS1.A DCI 42: ETS1.B DCI 43: ETS1.C DCI 44: ETS2.A DCI 45: ETS2.B

8 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 8 Figure 6. Topic based domain coverage of the NGSS in middle school grades (6 8). DCI 01: PS1.A DCI 02: PS1.B DCI 03: PS1.C DCI 04: PS DCI 05: PS2.B DCI 07: PS3.A DCI 08: PS3.B DCI 09: PS3.C DCI 10: PS3.D DCI 12: PS4.A DCI 13: PS4.B DCI 14: PS4.C DCI 15: LS1.A DCI 16: LS1.B DCI 17: LS1.C DCI 18: LS1.D DCI 19: LS2.A DCI 20: LS2.B DCI 21: LS2.C DCI 22: LS2.D DCI 23: LS3.A DCI 24: LS3.B DCI 25: LS4.A DCI 26: LS4.B DCI 27: LS4.C DCI 28: LS4.D DCI 29: ESS1.A DCI 30: ESS1.B DCI 31: ESS1.C DCI 32: ESS2.A DCI 33: ESS2.B DCI 34: ESS2.C DCI 35: ESS2.D DCI 36: ESS2.E DCI 37: ESS3.A DCI 38: ESS3.B DCI 39: ESS3.C DCI 40: ESS3.D DCI 41: ETS1.A DCI 42: ETS1.B DCI 43: ETS1.C DCI 44: ETS2.A DCI 45: ETS2.B

9 Measurement Models, Equating, and the NGSS 9 Figure 7. Expectation based domain coverage of the NGSS in high school grades (9 12). DCI 01: PS1.A DCI 02: PS1.B DCI 03: PS1.C DCI 04: PS DCI 05: PS2.B DCI 07: PS3.A DCI 08: PS3.B DCI 09: PS3.C DCI 10: PS3.D DCI 12: PS4.A DCI 13: PS4.B DCI 14: PS4.C DCI 15: LS1.A DCI 16: LS1.B DCI 17: LS1.C DCI 18: LS1.D DCI 19: LS2.A DCI 20: LS2.B DCI 21: LS2.C DCI 22: LS2.D DCI 23: LS3.A DCI 24: LS3.B DCI 25: LS4.A DCI 26: LS4.B DCI 27: LS4.C DCI 28: LS4.D DCI 29: ESS1.A DCI 30: ESS1.B DCI 31: ESS1.C DCI 32: ESS2.A DCI 33: ESS2.B DCI 34: ESS2.C DCI 35: ESS2.D DCI 36: ESS2.E DCI 37: ESS3.A DCI 38: ESS3.B DCI 39: ESS3.C DCI 40: ESS3.D DCI 41: ETS1.A DCI 42: ETS1.B DCI 43: ETS1.C DCI 44: ETS2.A DCI 45: ETS2.B